"Nine wins is OK at Tennessee": Reassessing fan expectations once again

by CornFromAJar on Jan 26, 2007 11:43 AM EST in Tennessee Volunteer Football

Earlier, Joel pointed out a GoVolsXtra article that quotes Phillip Fulmer as saying:

Nine wins is okay at Tennessee. It's okay.

Let me ask you: Is nine wins okay at Tennessee? Personally, I bristled when I read that. I thought it sounded defeatist and complacent, and I'm sure many Vol fans feel the same. But before you make up your mind about Fulmer's quote, let me ask another question: Are you happy with Tennessee's football performance historically? If so, you may be surprised how accurate Fulmer is with his statement.

Since 1926, General Neyland's first year, Tennessee has won more games than any other college football team (631) and has the second-highest winning percentage (.728). If you're curious, Ohio State has the highest winning percentage at .738 (the Buckeyes have also played 59 fewer games than UT during that time period).

For Tennessee to continue that historically significant winning percentage, playing a 13-game schedule (12 regular season games + a bowl game), they need to win 9.5 games/year. Obviously, that can't happen, so some years UT will need to win 10 games and others 9. But to ask more than that is to ask the Vols to do something they haven't been able to do historically.

All of this reminds me of something CFR pointed out a while back: Stewart Mandel's College Football Equilibrium Theory:

What I'm saying is, while every program has its good years and bad years, most have a natural equilibrium point to which they will eventually return, no matter who the coach is. Oklahoma had its rough years in the '90s but eventually returned to its more natural state in the top 15. Michigan and Ohio State are at equilibrium when they win Big Ten championships. USC is slightly above its equilibrium point right now, but that balances out all those pre-Pete Carroll years below it. Unfortunately, Duke is at equilibrium when it goes 3-8.

So whether he had thought about the actual numbers or not, Fulmer might have been close to finding Tennessee's equilibrium point with his nine wins comment. There is another component to Tennessee's equilibrium point that I want to get to later: winning championships.

But first, let us know: What's your reaction to Fulmer's quote? Considering the information presented here, is a nine-win season good enough at Tennessee?

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Settler

Fulmer is someone who will settle for things, like nine wins, Philly Cheese Steak at Sub Way and field goals. He should have his eye on things like championships, New York Strip, and touchdowns

by Smitty @ Rocky Top Talk on Jan 26, 2007 1:12 PM EST reply actions

Thoughts

First things first. To answer CFAJ's questions:
1) My initial reaction yesterday was similar to Smitty's. I was disgusted knowing that the head coach of MY team is content with 4 losses on the season and not being able to claim any stake of any championship...not even the SEC Eastern Title.

But after thinking about it, I think that the 8-word quote may be taken out of context. When he says "Its okay.", he may just be making reference that Armageddon is not imminent. It may not mean that Coach Fulmer is content with 9 wins; it just means that a 9-win season should not mean the end of the world. I interpret "okay" in this instance means "Hey, I'm not thrilled, but it's not the end of the world. I'll make some changes in the off-season and we'll work to improve the number of wins next year."

2) "Good enough" is an impossible term to define, with respect to gridiron records. Was this season "good enough" with respect to the garbage that I had to watch during "The Season of Which We Do Not Speak"? You're damned right it is!! Was it "good enough" with respect to what it could have been? No way. We touched on the razor thin margin between success and failure a few weeks back. How close were we from a potential 12-1 season*? A minimum of 3 plays, by my books.

* Assuming wins vs. UF and LSU, UT probably would have been in a BCS bowl and would not have played PSU. Outcome of that BCS bowl will never be known...only assumed a win!)

# Florida - UT was driving down the field with under a minute remaining when Ainge-in-Orange spots a wide open B. Smith down the field. The pass is thrown, and then out of nowhere, Reggie F'n Nelson locks onto the ball and makes one of his trademarked interceptions, sealing the W for the Gators.

# LSU - Ugh. This one hurt, due to a number of reasons. UT is clinging to a 3 pt. lead with about 6 min. left in the game. LSU pieces together a monstrous, time eating drive that consisted of TWO 4th and forever conversions, other 3rd and long conversions, and even a J. Russell fumble-recovered-by-UT-ruled-not-a-fumble-because-he-was-ruled-down-by-contact-even-though-replay-cl early-showed-that-he-wasn't-down-but-the-play-was-unreviewable.

# PSU - A single, untimely, and uncharacteristic fumble by A. Foster was returned for a PSU TD, of which the Vols could not and would not recover. Of the 60 offensive snaps that UT had that day, how could 1 prove to be so disastrous?

Now for the ramblings:
At a "football school", such as UT, fan expectations have been set so high that anything less than "perfection" is as good as a failure. We, as fans, want to be the ones boasting about our team's championships and how awesome we are. That's a fact of life according to Mr. Darwin and his theory...humans are competitive creatures who are programmed to "kill or be killed". The only person I've ever known to be content with 2nd place is Cal Naughton, Jr. (To his credit, he did ask Ricky Bobby if he could win at least 1 race, but was denied permission!) Case in point is that we all demand excellence and perfection, and we want it now. That "speedy" attitude has come with the rest of modern civilization (e.g., fast food, ATMs, microwave ovens, high speed internet, and teleporters...right?).

Hey, at least the UT fanbase isn't protesting a 10-4 season...yet.

by Aerobab on Jan 26, 2007 2:41 PM EST reply actions

9 win seasons

We all know Ohio St let a coach go a few years back, after winning 9 games a year for several years, 4 years I think, cant remember.

To me, in a 12 game regular season 10 wins is the standard to me, this way you are playing for a shot at 11 wins or more every year.

with that said I have three points, First, If you keep at a high peak like that of 1-2 losses a year, sooner or later things are gonna break for you and you will win Conference or national titles. If you look at UTs run to the 98 title you had 4 straight seasons of 10+ wins, things broke right in some games and we won them all. In order to take advantage of the breaks you must be winning 10-11 games a year.

Second, in a 12 game regular season 9 wins is NOT enough, ever. 9 wins is your fluke "bad year" I think the current coaches at UT must win 10 or 11 games next year. Not to mention competeing for a title.

Third, Lets face it, UT has natural rivals on the field, everywhere they go. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama, South carolina, Georgia, they all play hard against UT and even on a down year for them they will be up for UT to come to town. Its hard to win 10 games year in, year out.

10 wins has to be the standard from now on.

Old & Dizzy

by Lunicidal VOL on Jan 26, 2007 8:33 PM EST reply actions