SEC Championship Game: comparing the numbers of the Tennessee Volunteers and the LSU Tigers

by Joel Hollingsworth on Nov 30, 2007 7:37 AM EST in Tennessee Volunteer Football

The BlogPoll train is running late. The caboose will be along shortly. Probably tomorrow. I was planning on just a few more meteors because inspiration was a late arrival as well. But it did come (nothing special, so don't get your hopes up), so I'm probably a day away.

Until then, bad news!

Tennessee rush v. LSU defense	Tennessee pass v. LSU defense	LSU rush v. Tennessee defense	LSU pass v. Tennessee defense
64 (9)	39 (4)	64 (8)	67 (11)
14 (2)	3 (1)	12 (2)	55 (5)

Field Goals	Tennessee punting v. LSU punt return	LSU punting v. Tennessee punt return	Intangibles
T-12 (3)	40 (4)	48 (5)
T-4 (1)	104 (12)	63 (5)

The numbers in parentheses are SEC conference rankings.

Hmm, this is not looking good.

Schedules:

TENNESSEE
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT/TIME
09/01	at #12 California	L 45-31
09/08	So Miss	W 39-19
09/15	at #5 Florida	L 59-20
09/22	Arkansas St	W 48-27
10/06	#12 Georgia	W 35-14
10/13	at Miss St	W 33-21
10/20	at Alabama	L 41-17
10/27	#16 S Carolina	W 27-24
11/03	La Lafayette	W 59-7
11/10	Arkansas	W 34-13
11/17	Vanderbilt	W 25-24
11/24	at Kentucky	W 52-50

LSU
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT/TIME
08/30	at Miss St	W 45-0
09/08	#9 Va Tech	W 48-7
09/15	M Tenn St	W 44-0
09/22	#12 S Carolina	W 28-16
09/29	at Tulane	W 34-9
10/06	#9 Florida	W 28-24
10/13	at #17 Kentucky	L 43-37
10/20	#17 Auburn	W 30-24
11/03	at #17 Alabama	W 41-34
11/10	La Tech	W 58-10
11/17	at Ole Miss	W 41-24
11/23	Arkansas	L 50-48

Sagarin has LSU's strength of schedule ranked 26th and Tennessee's ranked 25th. According to his model, LSU is roughly a six-point favorite. But there's something quite interesting hiding in Sagarin's numbers: LSU has two wins and no losses versus current top 10 teams, but they are 3-2 against current top 30 teams. Tennessee is 1-1 against current top 10 teams but 3-1 against top 30 teams. So we have a better record against top 30 teams, huh? Of course, LSU is more of a top 10-er than a top 30-er, but hey, it's something.

Statistically, LSU should win every phase of this game not involing Britton Colquitt or Dennis Rogan as a punt returner. But there's those not-so-small matters of the coaching distraction and the pain of having just lost your opportunity to play for the national championship. If they're not mentally tough, they may not be able to manage their advantages. But . . . in 1998, when we had a coaching distraction (Cutcliffe interviewing with Ole Miss), we won the SEC Championship 24-14 against Mississippi State and went on to win the National Championship. In 2001, when our dreams of the NC were dashed at the last moment (by LSU, of all teams), we went on to wax Michigan 45-17 in the bowl game. It had to be said.

So. What do y'all see in the numbers? I see only a small ray of hope.

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Comments

Clarification

But . . . in 1998, when we had a coaching distraction (Cutcliffe interviewing with Ole Miss), we won the SEC Championship 24-14 against Mississippi State and went on to win the National Championship with Randy Sanders calling his first game as the OC after Coach Cutcliffe left for Ole Miss.

...just to disclose all the facts.

by Aerobab on Nov 30, 2007 8:58 AM EST reply actions

That was a good thing, though, right?

Florida State had absolutely no idea what we were going to do in that game on offense. Basically all of the tape he had to scout was of Cutcliffe's tendencies, and Sanders was a complete surprise.

Go Vols!

by Joel Hollingsworth on Nov 30, 2007 9:11 AM EST up reply actions

That's why they play the games

LSU is a better team - on paper. But the games aren't played on paper. GO BIG ORANGE!

Vinnie Testaverde is always remembered for Tennessee kicking his ass.

by RevOrange on Nov 30, 2007 12:32 PM EST reply actions

Al Wilson

All crdit for the 1998 team goest to Al Wilson. He was really the OC. He will be in Atlanta this weekend, that wasn't listed on the matchup thing. Al Wilson gives us like 25 points just for showing up.

by Smitty @ Rocky Top Talk on Nov 30, 2007 3:17 PM EST reply actions