2007-08 Football Strength of Schedule

The upcoming season's schedule has yet to really be discussed yet, but I took a little peek at it to see who/where we're playing this year.  It is as follows:

9/1   at Cal
9/8   vs Southern Miss.
9/15  at Florida
9/22  vs Arkansas St.
9/29  (Bye)
10/6  vs Georgia
10/13 at Miss. St.
10/20 at Alabama
10/27 vs S. Carolina
11/3  vs La-La (HC)
11/10 vs Arkansas
11/17 vs Vandy
11/24 at Kentucky

The first thing I noticed was the relative ease of schedule.  Of the 3 out of conference games slated for the year, only Cal is of any substance.  In my pure, uninformed, opinion they won't be any better than they were last year.  Granted we probably won't be any better either (probably worse in reality), but that just means a closer score with the same outcome.

Jumping back into the land where the SEC ROOLZXZ!!1!!, I'm not sure what to think.  It's likely that the "Big 3 in the East" will run the cycle (UGA>UT>UF>UGA) and UK will be the difference maker by defeating 2 of the 3.  (I'm not so sure UT won't be a victim of the then-ranked top-25 Wildcats to spoil an SECCG appearance.)

7 home games and 5 foreign visits is definately a plus for us.  The good news is that all 7 at home are winnable...bad news is that 4 of 5 away are loosable, too (save Miss. St.).

With that laid out, I see a weaker SoS than what we traditionally play (not playing LSU, Auburn, ND, etc.), but still stronger than 2/3 of all other D-1 schools.  I'm going to go ahead and go on record for finishing the regular season 10-2.  This will then become an interesting juncture in determining a successful campaign.

Possible "suffessful" scenarios:

  • SECCG invite and win, followed by BCS appearance.
  • SECCG invite and loss, followed by non-BCS bowl win.
  • No SECCG invite, BCS at-large win.
Here's an interesting question...say UF or UGA holds the East's tiebreaker over UT at 10-1 and we're taken out of contention for the SEC with a loss to UK in the final week, do we still have a shot at a BCS at-large slot given our SoS for the year?

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