Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: game preview

Stats and stuff after the jump, but first the key observations:

• Neither team has had very much success on offense this season. If you define "very" as "almost" and "much" as "no" and then correct for the double negative, which is really just way too much work, so just know this: we both stink on offense.
• Both teams have very good defenses.
• Mississippi State's pass defense is better than it's rush defense and should provide Tennessee with a much-needed opportunity to get its running game going. We could double our production by gaining two net yards this week.
• Expect Tennessee to have trouble converting third downs on offense, and don't get too excited if our third down defense appears to improve: the Bulldogs aren't very good on third down offensively.
• Bizarre prediction: Tennessee wins 2-0 by forcing a safety in OT. Ha, ha, funny. Ha ha. Ha. I'll be here all week. Make that weak.

Okay, so the stats:

Tennessee rush v. Mississippi State defense	Tennessee pass v. Mississippi State defense	Mississippi State rush v. Tennessee defense	Mississippi State pass v. Tennessee defense
89 (9)	93 (9)	20 (4)	25 (8)
76 (11)	11 (3)	91 (10)	92 (8)

Field Goals	Tennessee punting v. Mississippi State punt return	Mississippi State punting v. Tennessee punt return	Intangibles
T-54 (T-8)	111 (12)	50 (9)
T-87 (11)	104 (12)	102 (10)

Hey, maybe we can actually run the ball against these guys. Throwing it may be another matter altogether. We shouldn't have any trouble stopping the Bulldogs' offense, and lo! something approximating a push for the punting game! Getting out of holes dug early in the season sure takes a long time, doesn't it?

Here's how the teams look next to each other in each of the key statistical categories currently used in the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll Computer Ballot:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	EXP	OPPG	TO	3DD	AVG R	W AVG
84		85	22	11	76	81	28	99	38	42	103	10	54.09	778.93
86		85	55	25	20	97	21	101	45	29	104	89	61.00	781.13

Raise your hand if you ever thought you'd see Tennessee ranked below Mississippi State in any poll. I see no hands, and it's not just because there are no people in the room with me and my trusty computer. It's because nobody saw that coming. We'd better have made some improvement on third down offense this week because when we have the ball the respective rankings are 97 and 10 in their favor. Defensively, the Bulldogs are no better at converting them than we are at stopping them, so there's that delicious crumb.

Aaaand the context for the numbers:

Opponent Result Record at UCLA  L 27-24 0-1 (0-0) UAB  W 35-3 1-1 (0-0) No. 4 Florida  L 30-6 1-2 (0-1) at No. 15 Auburn  L 14-12 1-3 (0-2) Northern Illinois  W 13-9 2-3 (0-2) at No. 10 Georgia L 26-14 2-4 (0-3)	Opponent Result Record at Louisiana Tech  L 22-14 0-1 (0-0) Southeastern Louisiana  W 34-10 1-1 (0-0) No. 9 Auburn  L 3-2 1-2 (0-1) at Georgia Tech  L 38-7 1-3 (0-1) at No. 5 LSU  L 34-24 1-4 (0-2) No. 13 Vanderbilt  W 17-14 2-4 (1-2)

Wow, that's like mirror-image stuff there, isn't it? We both lost to Auburn because of offensive futility. We both lost to a top 5-ish team and to a top 10-ish team. We both lost to and won games against nobodies. Huh. We Are! Mississippi State!

So what's it all mean?

• Both offenses are positively putrid. In the bottom 20 kind of stuff. Both offenses will be going against pretty good defenses.

• Mississippi State is better at stopping the pass than stopping the run, which of course means that we will try to win the game with our 101st-ranked passing attack. Jackson's Dictate memo is gathering dust in a file somewhere. How can someting in a folder in a drawer gather dust? It's been there a looooong time.

• Third downs. Again. Key. Yes, I know you're getting tired of reading that, and I'm tiring of writing it, but unless we fix our problems on third down this week, it's going to be a long night for our offense. Tennessee is ranked 97th in third down conversions and will be going against Mississippi State's 10th-ranked third down defense. Fortunately, the Bulldogs' own third down offense is about as bad as our third down defense.

• Look for a defensive contest and the first game in NCAA history to be decided by a safety in overtime. Woo!