Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: game preview

Stats and stuff after the jump, but first the key observations:

• Tennessee's offense is getting better, but it will continue to struggle against a stingy Alabama defense.
• The Vols' game plan has to be to shut down the Tide's running game and make them a one-dimensional passing attack. That and to cross your fingers for some offense.
• Punt on third or go for it on fourth. The Big Orange's third down offense is really not very good yet, and they'll be going against an excellent third down defense. Don't expect much of anything good on third downs when we have the ball.
• Butbutbut . . . the Tide appear to be overconfident. Sssshhhhhhhh.

Okay, so the stats:

Tennessee rush v. Alabama defense	Tennessee pass v. Alabama defense	Alabama rush v. Tennessee defense	Alabama pass v. Tennessee defense
85 (9)	96 (8)	14 (3)	13 (3)
4 (2)	17 (6)	19 (1)	103 (10)

Field Goals	Tennessee punting v. Alabama punt return	Alabama punting v. Tennessee punt return	Intangibles
T-41 (7)	109 (12)	52 (9)
T-24 (4)	25 (6)	87 (9)

Same story, different week: this should be a defensive contest. The only difference, really, is a matter of degree. Alabama's defense appears to be much, much better than Tennessee's offense, and Tennessee's advantage in rushing offense is miniscule. Probably statistically insigificant. The only real advantage the Vols appear to have is in passing defense and punt returns. So if we are able to stop the run and force John Parker Wilson into passing downs, perhaps we will have a shot. I gave the intangibles to Tennessee because Alabama is very young, it's a long season, and they appear to be overconfident despite struggling against Kentucky and Mississippi. I think they're due for a letdown. The only question is whether we're good enough to be the team against which that happens.

Here's how the teams look next to each other in each of the key statistical categories currently used in the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll Computer Ballot:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	EXP	OPPG	TO	3DD	AVG R	W AVG
1		1	23	17	4	40	16	48	95	14	60	3	29.18	67.53
72		72	21	13	14	87	11	104	45	17	106	75	51.36	660.41

Those numbers suggest that both teams are solid on defense and that the primary difference between the teams is Tennessee's struggling offense and the consequent losses. The Vols' opponent is again much better on third downs on both sides of the ball this week.

Aaaand the context for the numbers:

Opponent Result Record at UCLA  L 27-24 0-1 (0-0) UAB  W 35-3 1-1 (0-0) No. 4 Florida  L 30-6 1-2 (0-1) at No. 15 Auburn  L 14-12 1-3 (0-2) Northern Illinois  W 13-9 2-3 (0-2) at No. 10 Georgia L 26-14 2-4 (0-3) Mississippi State W 34-3 3-4 (1-3)	Opponent Result Record at No. 9 Clemson  W 34-10 1-0 (0-0) Tulane  W 20-6 2-0 (0-0) Western Kentucky  W 41-7 3-0 (0-0) at Arkansas  W 49-14 4-0 (1-0) at No. 3 Georgia  W 41-30 5-0 (2-0) Kentucky  W 17-14 6-0 (3-0) Mississippi  W 24-20 7-0 (4-0)

Well that's a little encouraging anyway. That "No. 9" by Clemson turns out to be a mistake, as the Tigers now have an identical record to Tennessee and were so bad they fired their coach mid-season, so the only really good team Alabama has played is Georgia. We've at least played Florida, too. Of course, Georgia is the teams' only common opponent, and the Tide walloped 'em, and we got walloped, so you know.

So what's it all mean?

• Prepare to see Tennessee's offense really struggle to get anything going against a very good defense, even with nose tackle Terrence Cody out. Remember the Alamodome, folks. And the 2001 SEC Championship. When the other team's best player goes out, the result is often not what you expect.
• Tennessee's defense might be able to hold its own against the Tide. The Vols' only real chance in this game is to shut down Alabama's running game (which the numbers indicate is at least a possibility) and make the Tide one-dimensional so that we can capitalize on our only real advantage, which is passing defense.
• We'd better employ either a two-down or four-down offensive scheme. On third down when we have the ball, our 87th-ranked third down offense will be going against Alabama's 3rd-ranked third down defense. If we punt on 4th down, our 109th-ranked punting game will be punting to their 25th-ranked return game. So we should either punt to no one on 3rd down or go for it on fourth. Will that happen? Of course not.