Dissecting the Tennessee-Alabama Cadaver

by David Hooper on Oct 27, 2008 7:00 AM EDT in Tennessee Volunteer Football

It almost feels wrong to come up with these charts and tables. We all saw the game and we all know what happened: Alabama simply outplayed Tennessee. All summaries of the game will come to that conclusion. But you do occasionally find some things you missed before when you start poring through the data. Besides, if a bammer doesn't like stats, what more reason do you need to take a peek? This will be a contextual analysis; I'm going to place the Alabama game next to the other games this season and see how the stats look in a comparative sense rather than an absolute sense.

Anyway, on with the peep show:

8-game_run-pass_table_medium

The offensive numbers are very typical of a Stephens-led offense. The passing percentage is reasonable but nothing special; no interceptions (woo!); and the running game was nothing to write home about. Well, you could write home about the running game - much in the same way you'd write home to say you hate summer camp becasue of the ptomaine poisoning.

In short, the running game is gone.

Yes, Alabama has a good rush defense. (But not as good as Georgia! Hah!) However, whatever ability the offense had to run the ball in the first few games is now officially gone. Chalk it up to game tape; UCLA through Florida didn't really have anything to gauge what UT's offense would look like. Surprise helped out. But now, everybody knows what the running game is. Defenses are getting very fast reads on the offense, and it's making life very difficult on the runners. (Remember that, against MSU, much of the yardage came on the garbage time Creer drive where the D-line was too tired to stop the plays that everybody knew was coming.)

So, while the mistakes are down, so is the spontaneity. Our offense appears to be pegged.

8-game_pass_distribution_medium

This chart has much of the same information as the previous chart, but it includes a better breakdown of the passing game in particular. In the "looking to the future" department, we can see one good sign of growth from Stephens: better distribution of passes among the available players. You usually expect the receivers to get half (or slightly more) of the receptions, but the better inclusion of the tight ends is particularly encouraging. Let's hope for more of that.

Also, the "E.B." column should be self-explanatory.

8-game_play_distribution_medium

Breaking the offense down even further, there's not much to note about the run/pass percentages. UT was playing from behind, so their passing percentage went up. End of story. However, look at the green line in the top graph. UT is still losing plays on the offensive side of the ball. Against UA, the Vols only had 49 offensive plays in the game. That's not the worst this year shudder but it's still at unprecedentedly low levels. Sure, we can blame the clock for some of it, but much of it also goes to the inability of the offense to sustain drives. (Side note: Alabama's last drive took 7 minutes, 20 seconds, 3 UT timeouts, 13 plays and still didn't gain 60 yards. Did I mention I hate the new clock rules?)

8-game_yards_per_play_medium

Welcome to mediocre.

Stephens is still getting better QB ratings than Crompton - largely (but not entirely) due to his lack of interceptions. Still, those are very pedestrian numbers for a team that wants to compete for titles of various forms. He's managing the game well, but he's not actually beating anybody, either. If we accept this as prep for next year, that's well and good. If we're looking for reasons to hope for a 7-5 salvage, we'll have to find other things to add to this.

As for the yards-per-play: let me just remind you that a rushing YPP of 4.0 and a passing YPP of 8.0 are the basic goals of most offenses. Enough said.

No. Not enough said.

UT had 57 total yards rushing in the game. The player with the most was Foster. The player with the longest? Nick Stephens had the longest rush of the day. Do you remember that play? The one in the second half where he had to scramble out, managed to fight off a potential tackler in the open field and got a first down? Yeah, that was our best rush of the day. For 12 whole yards. By the way, Stephens had an 18-yard rush against MSU; the longest was a Foster run for 19.

But back to the Alabama game; if you take out Stephens's rush, UT had only 45 rushing yards on 20 carries. Yes, that includes sacks. Sacks, secks, sicks, socks, and it sucks.

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Ha

I like the “oh the humanity” tag. I tagged my photos of the UT-UF game “jean shorts.”

"Florida didnt win their first SEC title until 1991 and now they think they invented football."
-Ron Zook

by rustytanton on Oct 27, 2008 7:19 AM EDT reply actions

I like to add random tags in every now and then for the fun of it. Someday, I’ll actually see where those tags take me. The “humanity” tag was preexisting; I bet there are some good stories behind it.

by David Hooper on Oct 27, 2008 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Never mind.

There’s only one other story. It’s short and funny, though.

by David Hooper on Oct 27, 2008 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Sweet

I was refrenced as the “bammer” who didn’t like stats….

This is impressive though. To sit down and put all this together. Its so simple, a cave man can understand.

But seriously. You guys have now played UGA and UA. In your opinion, who has the better defense?

When you are an Alabama fan you have to hate Auburn, I hate Tennessee because i want to.

by bammer on Oct 27, 2008 9:51 AM EDT reply actions

I had to put a couple comments in just for you. The UGA/UA defense comparisons were specifically for you as well. ;-)

I’ll be honest; I couldn’t really tell you who has the better defense. I really think it comes down to the offense you match up against. UA is built much more in the “inside-out” theory, where the strength of the defense is in the interior (NT, MLB), with the weaknesses at the edges. UGA is a little more balanced. If I had the option, I’d probably take UGA’s secondary, UA’s line and MLB, and perhaps split on the OLBs.

I would also think that UGA is a little better built to handle Florida (and other spread-y teams) out of necessity. But I think that UA would be better off against the pro-set with the statue QB offense.

But that’s just my guess. They’re both great defenses.

by David Hooper on Oct 27, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Why?

This is the question I want answered. Why is our offense so bad after being so good last year? We have a new OC and a new system, but it does not appear to be that different. I would expect some amount of drop off, but this is just unbelievable.

Erik Ainge is/was a great quarterback. I was one of his biggest proponents while he was under so much flak for his “dink and dunk” style that everyone hated, but that averaged 35 points per game. Still, his absence does not explain the complete 180 that has been pulled. Stephens is not spectacular, but he does enough that the defense has to at lest semi-respect the passing game. So what is going on?

Is it the scheme? Coaches say no. Is it the play calling? Coaches say no. Is it the players? To that, I say no. “Talent” and “stars” (as in ranking) are two words thrown around all of the time in college football. For the most part, I think it is a lot of hogwash. There are certain things you can’t teach (football instincts, speed [to an extent], etc), but there are a lot of things you can teach. A coach using proper teaching techniques could teach me how to block a defensive lineman, and as long as my opponent was in my weight class, I would be successful. Our O-Line is big, strong, and fast… so why can they not protect our QB and open up holes for the backs? Slower receivers beat faster defenders all of the time by running clean routes and utilizing offensive schemes designed to confuse the defense… so why do our receivers not get more separation? (I have no idea how fast or slow any of them are, this is just a for instance). The list goes on and on.

Talent, speed, etc go a long way toward winning championships. Sometimes, the guy you’re up against is bigger, faster, stronger, more skilled… and there’s nothing you can do about it. But you can’t tell me that Alabama’s players are 20 points (plus complete domination) more talented than UT’s players. That’s pretty obvious because we missed 2 field goals, had at least 3 scoring drives stall out due to penalties, and one fumble return for a touchdown that was incorrectly called back. You can’t tell me that with the talent we have on the field each Saturday, we should not have a winning record right now (5 – 3). As I’ve said before, I can handle losing games. Somebody has to lose when two teams square off. What I cannot handle (as a fan and adamant supporter of the team with my time and money) is embarrassment due to an insane amount of procedure penalties, and play calling that sends the message to your own team, your own fans, your visiting recruits, your opponent, and the national audience that you either a) do not have a clue, b) are trying so hard “not to lose” that you can’t think straight, or c) you have no confidence in your team’s ability to make plays.

But instead, the silence is deafening. The coaches have no idea how to fix the problems. That, or they are keeping it all one big secret. I don’t believe radical changes are necessary 99.9% of the time, and I appreciate Coach Fulmer’s perseverance and willingness to stay the course. However, 8 games into the season, the “course” is clearly the wrong one.

Last year, our punt coverage was terrible. We fixed this (for the most part) by trying a new formation, something that many teams do now. I appreciated the willingness to try something different when the status quo was not working. I just want honesty. If the coaches are playing for next year, then come out and say it (politically, of course), and I’ll be happy. I will have hope that things will get better. Right now, I do not have that hope because I see the same old stuff happening over, and over, and over again.

Anyway, sorry for the long post. I’m clearly still frustrated with Saturday’s game. I just want to win, but I know I don’t want it half as bad as the players and coaches. There were some good points about the game, and I appreciate Hooper pointing them out in a separate post today.

Go Vols

by rblakeh on Oct 27, 2008 3:30 PM EDT reply actions

The targeted YPP of passing plays is 8.0?

That implies a passing premium of 4 yards, which is much higher than I’ve heard from any other source. I think it’s closer to 1.5 or 2.0 yards for a premium. I think it’s closer to 4.5 yards per play rushing and ~6 yards per play passing.

Of course, that’s largely immaterial to the central point here. :)

by Chris Pendley on Oct 27, 2008 8:03 PM EDT reply actions

That may be.

I based my numbers mostly on observation through the stats I’ve tracked over the last couple of years. I don’t have any formal data to back it up other than it seemed that successful offenses were routinely at those marks. So I’ll freely admit I may be off from a more established and founded convention.

by David Hooper on Oct 27, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions