Tennessee Volunteers vs. Northern Illinois Huskies: game preview

by Joel Hollingsworth on Oct 3, 2008 9:13 PM EDT in Tennessee Volunteer Football

Nick Stephens will start in place of Jonathan Crompton tomorrow night as the Tennessee Volunteers host Northern Illinois. Stats and stuff after the jump, but first the keys to the game:

For the third week in a row, third downs are going to be key. NIU's offense is currently ranked 10th in the nation in third down offense while our third down defense is ranked 86th. Flip things around and NIU still has the advantage, with Tennessee's third down offense ranked 87th and NIU's third down defense ranked 27th. Yes, you have to account for level of competition, but still.
Nick Stephens.
Tennessee's running game. The Volunteer running game must make things easier on the QB, whether that's new starter Stephens or Jonathan Crompton in relief. NIU is not a pushover in rushing defense, but we need to lighten the load for whomever's under center.

Okay, so the stats:

Tennessee rush v. Northern Ill. defense	Tennessee pass v. Northern Ill. defense	Northern Ill. rush v. Tennessee defense	Northern Ill. pass v. Tennessee defense
49	96	23	19
42	41	37	73

Field Goals	Tennessee punting v. Northern Ill. punt return	Northern Ill. punting v. Tennessee punt return	Intangibles
T-57	115	43
T-24	62	5

Huh. Yeah, well, numbers lie, right? Here's how the teams look next to each other in each of the key statistical categories currently used in the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll Computer Ballot:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	EXP	OPPG	TO	3DD	AVG R	W AVG
60		63	75	41	42	10	30	28	9	22	52	27	36.27	191.94
91		91	89	19	23	87	17	111	45	34	81	86	62.09	273.84

Or not. But heeeeyyyy, didn't we discover earlier this week that the strength of schedule numbers are wonky? Right.

Opponent	Result	Record
at UCLA	L 27-24	0-1
UAB	W 35-3	1-1
No. 4 Florida	L 30-6	1-2
at No. 15 Auburn	L 14-12	1-3

Opponent	Result	Record
at Minnesota	L 31-27	0-1
at Western Michigan	L 29-26	0-2
Indiana State	W 48-3	1-2
at Eastern Michigan	W 37-0	2-2

That's better. Sure, the Vols have one more loss than do the Huskies, but we've lost to No. 4 Florida and No.15 Auburn while NIU has lost to unranked Minnesota and unranked Western Michigan. So whew, yeah, you can now settle down about seeing all of those NIU logos above.

So what's it all mean?

Tennessee's defense should carry the day against Northern Illinois, but we are still vulnerable on third down. Not only are the Vols not very good defensively on third down, the Huskies are decent offensively with the drive on the line.
We really should be able to run the ball well despite the ostensibly even stats. Auburn's and Florida's defenses could stop all four of NIU's opponents at the same time, I'd bet.
Other than that, Nick Stephens. So you know.

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Pay per view...

Is there any other way to watch the game that anyone’s aware of?

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lawvol: Gate 21 - Life, the Universe, & the Bounce of the Ball

by lawvol98 on Oct 4, 2008 2:52 AM EDT reply actions

Um . . .

Pay per play? It certainly seems lately like each snap is costing us something.

Go Vols!

by Joel Hollingsworth on Oct 4, 2008 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Aren't you in North Carolina?

The pay-per-view is limited to Tennesse, as far as I understand. You should be able to get the game if you have that ESPN fancy-package thingy. Or so I am led to believe. But in Tennessee, everybody is stuck with PPV.

by David Hooper on Oct 4, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Have to win this game.

Losing at home to N. Illinois and starting 1-5 (after next wkend) should be a fireable offense, especially with the recruiting starting to tank and fan support dropping like a stone. The offense is unimaginative and uninspiring. There’s no sunshine and rainbows or silver lining here. This program is in trouble. A sub-.500 record in the last 28 SEC games or so. I can’t believe Hamilton offered a contract providing a one-year extension each time Fulmer wins 8 games. Are 8 wins the gold standard now for our program?

Cannons... fire them.

www.BucEm.com - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

by Craig T on Oct 4, 2008 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

I understand the logic behind the contract, even if the risk backfired.

Because UT doesn’t enjoy the massive homefront recruiting base that schools in Florida or Texas (to name a few) have, Tennessee must rely on out-of-state recruiting to keep up. When they are talking to recruits who don’t bleed Orange by birth, it helps to prove that the coaching staff will be stable – that the people who recruit them will be the ones who coach them. That explains the length of the contract; even if it were shortened for some reason, you could still reasonably expect 4 or 5 years of coaching. (Think of it as if we were still in the preseason; ignore the results of this year for a second.)

I can only think of three reasons for having such a low threshold for the automatic extension. The first is that UT didn’t want a down year to hurt the arrangement of the above paragraph, so they gave themselves a healthy cushion. (Again, think in terms of pre-disaster contract negotiations.) The second is that Hamilton was afraid of the rate at which coaching salaries were increasing and felt this was a better long-term financial arrangement for the university than having to renegotiate Fulmer’s salary in 2 or 3 years. The third is that Fulmer and Hamilton had a backroom deal that involved Fulmer retiring after a few years – once he broke some arbitrary career wins mark. The rolling contract would allow Fulmer to focus on football and let the AD worry about other things; then when Fulmer retired, the golden parachute would be easy to figure out.

So I really don’t think the contract terms had anything to do with actual expectations; I think they were designed for show and for convenience. Of course, now that this season has backfired in nearly the worst way possible, the risk appears to have bit them. But hey, imagine how bad things would be if they lost to UAB…

by David Hooper on Oct 4, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Good analysis

However, only the most meticulous of recruits would look into the status and terms of a coach’s contract in making a decision. Stability is a factor, but detailed contract terms aren’t. Hamilton might have been looking to put Fulmer on a rolling contract or whatever you want to deem it, but the bar should’ve been set higher regarless. As long as the buyout remains a fixed amount regardless of whatever extension he receives, I guess it’s not a nightmare. I don’t know if his buyout is fixed or not, but I hope Hamilton was smart enough to keep that in mind when putting the deal together.

Cannons... fire them.

www.BucEm.com - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

by Craig T on Oct 4, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know if the buyout is fixed, either.

Those were merely the reason I could think of; I’m more partial to the loyalty-based reasons as far as the details go. But it is nice for a coach to tell the recruit (and recruit’s parents) that he has 7 more guaranteed years and no plans of going anywhere. Not all recruits care, but some do.

But no matter the logic, it’s obvious that the fan base is a little less than thrilled about it right now.

by David Hooper on Oct 4, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

BTW,

Your Bucs will be playing my Broncos. Here’s to a close game on Sunday with no injuries.

And a home team win, of course. ;-)

by David Hooper on Oct 4, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Indeed

Bucs will need to execute the running game and dink-and-dunk passing game to perfection to control the clock and keep the ball out of Cutler’s hands. Should be a good game.

Cannons... fire them.

www.BucEm.com - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

by Craig T on Oct 4, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions