The RTT computer BlogPoll ballot: raw numbers, week six

Time for yet another iteration of the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll ballotty thing. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here.

Prior tweaks to the system: (1) added experience ratings; (2) adjusted the weighting with a "square root of the sum of the squares." Why? I'll you why: I don't know. (3) revised the way tied teams were ranked.

Tweaks for this week:

  • Regarding the Win/Loss category: instead of ranking the teams based on winning percentage, we're moving to ranking them based on losing percentage. This helps to not penalize teams with early byes.
  • The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
  • The current weighting of the categories: 30, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Then tweaked by the square root of the sum of the squares manuever.
  • Current spreadsheet here.

All right, then. The Top 41 (so you can see where some of the teams in the traditional polls ended up in the computer rankings), according to the computer:

Rank
Team
WL
SOS
PED
RD
3DO
TD
PEO
EXP
OPPG
TO
3DD
AVG R
W AVG
1
Oklahoma
1
4
1
18
15
11
4
59
15
5
8
12.82
28.31
2
Texas Tech
1
15
29
24
13
49
16
68
33
2
3
23.00
50.89
3
Texas
1
13
39
3
10
28
2
116
4
12
23
22.82
56.87
4
Penn St.
1
61
8
11
8
8
14
38
9
9
7
15.82
58.95
5
Oklahoma St.
1
28
31
65
9
51
3
45
54
6
15
28.00
69.50
6
LSU
1
52
23
8
53
14
40
77
19
28
19
30.36
70.68
7
Missouri
1
17
61
15
5
83
5
32
44
3
79
31.36
72.47
8
Alabama
1
58
17
2
27
16
55
95
14
57
11
32.09
72.77
9
TCU
16
35
14
1
12
1
100
26
11
33
5
23.09
72.85
10
Ohio St.
16
12
21
32
57
18
54
59
22
81
72
40.36
75.04
11
Kansas
24
2
26
17
4
39
11
32
38
14
32
21.73
75.06
12
BYU
1
74
32
35
2
30
9
49
8
13
69
29.27
80.75
13
Florida St.
24
27
10
5
11
3
89
53
20
32
2
25.09
84.20
14
Utah
1
56
76
6
21
13
25
14
48
39
27
29.64
84.24
15
Florida
24
22
15
20
34
19
28
116
4
47
29
32.55
87.43
16
Georgia
24
1
59
4
20
22
26
90
43
30
31
31.82
91.19
17
Vanderbilt
1
32
25
45
79
47
77
90
24
114
51
53.18
91.20
18
South Fla.
16
76
30
10
22
20
34
66
32
27
22
32.27
92.56
19
Northwestern
1
69
33
34
46
37
90
59
13
64
12
41.64
93.97
20
Georgia Tech
24
46
5
42
42
15
19
109
4
37
71
37.64
97.46
21
Boston College
24
37
4
21
58
10
93
68
4
56
21
36.00
97.77
22
Michigan St.
16
26
36
50
87
56
79
68
22
54
30
47.64
103.40
23
Kentucky
24
34
2
39
86
12
94
38
1
82
6
38.00
106.41
24
North Carolina
24
39
19
67
52
57
23
72
40
88
47
48.00
106.80
25
Boise St.
1
89
28
60
25
41
7
114
12
20
9
36.91
107.19
26
California
24
60
7
15
94
25
41
90
30
38
25
40.82
112.76
27
Pittsburgh
24
52
53
43
46
27
91
77
50
66
42
51.91
115.29
28
Arizona
24
97
3
27
14
2
12
77
17
26
18
28.82
115.73
29
Southern California
36
61
20
12
28
4
8
72
10
19
37
27.91
118.79
30
Minnesota
16
70
49
49
77
62
29
112
35
61
33
53.91
120.13
31
Connecticut
16
76
38
55
51
29
112
109
31
46
63
56.91
122.00
32
Virginia Tech
16
36
84
56
67
33
88
105
35
108
38
60.55
122.66
33
Ball St.
1
109
16
83
3
58
10
53
27
11
57
38.91
122.98
34
Cincinnati
24
68
80
23
55
54
17
59
46
35
80
49.18
124.63
35
South Carolina
39
49
22
41
19
6
62
26
16
72
58
37.27
125.58
36
Notre Dame
24
54
35
59
92
84
36
95
40
70
42
57.36
128.99
37
Western Mich.
16
102
74
57
44
67
14
14
53
25
67
48.45
135.42
38
Wisconsin
44
21
18
47
48
31
59
77
29
43
86
45.73
138.05
39
West Virginia
44
45
40
38
34
35
31
53
25
66
98
46.27
139.93
40
Wake Forest
36
59
6
72
89
26
48
49
28
85
78
52.36
140.83
41
Auburn
39
37
11
14
112
7
105
84
2
104
1
46.91
145.92

So what human interventions are called for this week? Candidates:

Possibly too high

  • Oklahoma State. 5th here, 17th in both the AP and USA Today polls. Why? They've scored 55 points or more in every one of their games except their first against Washington State. Yeah, okay, so Houston, Missouri State, and Troy, but last week's beatdown was of Texas A&M. That's beginning to look legit. Missouri (without the "State") up next, so that'll be fun.
  • TCU. No. 9 here, unranked by the traditional polls. Excellent stats, and the only blemish is a 35-10 loss to Oklahoma. I don't think they're No. 9, but I don't think they should be unranked, either.
  • Florida State. 13th here, in the "Others Receiving Votes" category of the AP and USA Today polls. Only wart is a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. Hmm. Just beat Miami 41-39. Hmm again.
  • Georgia Tech, Boston College. Unranked in the AP/USA Today polls. Meh.
  • Kentucky. Losing 17-14 to Alabama is nothing to be ashamed of. You want to see ashamed, see the Third Saturday in October.

Possibly too low

  • Cal. Dunno.
  • Southern Cal. Uh, yeah, but mental note that the stats don't support the human perception of these guys just yet.
  • Virginia Tech. Probably should be ranked somewhere. Only loss is to East Carolina, 27-22, in the first game of the season. Don't get too carried away, though.
  • Wisconsin. Uh, no. Two losses, to Ohio State and to . . . Michigan.
  • Wake Forest. Don't think so. Lost to Navy.
  • Auburn. Let me just say this: we almost beat them. That is all.

Up to eight vetoes of the computer rankings. Go.

Current draft ballot, without any interventions, not even the one obviously needed for Southern Cal:

Rank Team Delta
1 Oklahoma --
2 Texas Tech 14
3 Texas --
4 Penn State 8
5 Oklahoma State 21
6 LSU 2
7 Missouri 2
8 Alabama 6
9 TCU 11
10 Ohio State 8
11 Kansas 3
12 Brigham Young 3
13 Florida State 10
14 Utah 8
15 Florida 2
16 Georgia 6
17 Vanderbilt 4
18 South Florida 11
19 Northwestern --
20 Georgia Tech 6
21 Boston College 5
22 Michigan State 4
23 Kentucky 3
24 North Carolina 2
25 Boise State 17

Dropped Out: Southern Cal (#11), Wisconsin (#15), Virginia Tech (#21), Oregon (#22), Wake Forest (#24), Nebraska (#25).

[Note by Joel, 10/06/08 8:25 PM EDT ] Corrected as indicated in the comments below. Basically, though, we ended up with just a different set of anomalies. So what overrides this week?

Rank Team Delta
1 Oklahoma --
2 Alabama --
3 Boise State 5
4 Missouri 1
5 South Florida 2
6 Ohio State 12
7 Texas 4
8 TCU 12
9 Utah 3
10 Penn State 2
11 Kansas 3
12 Florida State 11
13 Georgia Tech 13
14 Georgia 4
15 Vanderbilt 2
16 Texas Tech --
17 North Carolina 9
18 Kentucky 8
19 Southern Cal 8
20 LSU 16
21 Ball State 5
22 California 4
23 Brigham Young 14
24 Michigan State 2
25 Oklahoma State 1

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#15), Florida (#17), Northwestern (#19), Virginia Tech (#21), Oregon (#22), Wake Forest (#24), Nebraska (#25).
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