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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Northern Illinois: Offense to Date

With 5 games in the books, we can now take a look at some of the trends emerging in the UT offense.  (And by "trends", I don't mean a complete lack of consistency from the QB play.)  As before, I'll toss around a few pretty graphs and charts to give a gauge of the performance of the offense.

When evaluating Stephens's  play, keep in mind that I did not visually see the game.  I don't know exactly how well/poorly he threw the ball, how well the running backs ran, or how stiff the UNI defense was.  So the numbers merely give me something to focus on as a starting point for evaluation.  If you saw the game and anything in the chars/graphs jumps out at you, please leave some thoughts below.  I'm basically flying the Alps on instrumentation alone; the gauges tell me I'd like to see the Alps, but I can't tell you what those Alps actually look like from this angle.

The stats are compiled from the database at NCAA.com.  If you compare my numbers to those found at places like ESPN.com, you'll undoubtedly find discrepancies.  That's largely because ESPN et. al tend to be inconsistent because they update stats live, while NCAA will take more time to get them right.  Besides, the NCAA stats are the official stats.  There is one discrepancy that bugs me, though, and I'd like your help resolving it if you could.  You'll see it very early on.

So, onward and upward:

Star-divide

Basic_offense_stats_medium

Let's look at the passing and running stats in a forest-view level:

  • Passing:  Stephens measured out favorably in the stats compared to Crompton.  His completion percentage may have been the highest of the season.  (Note:  I say "may" because of a discrepancy in the number of completions.  Box scores - including NCAA's - list 10 completions.  Play-by-plays - including NCAA's - list 11 completions for Stephens.  Because the PbPs have actual descriptions, I used them.  If you have a resolution to this, leave a comment and I'll update when I get a chance.)  Stephens also had the highest QB rating of any game (NCAA system, not NFL system.  The general impression of the game was that Stephens had better control over his passes than Crompton had in previous games, and the stats seem to bear that out.
  • Rushing:  Ugh.  If you want to know why UT scored so few points, look no further than that massive anemic 2.2 yards-per-rush.  With 32 carries, you'd expect to break 100 yards on the day.  I was unable to see the game (I'm too cheap for PPV), so I don't know the defensive alignments, but I would guess that UNI was routinely stacking up against the run and leaving the passing game more open.  That would jive with the stats.  That would also say that UT needs a passing game to survive.
  • Question for those who saw the game:  How did Foster look?  He had an unusually high proportion of the carries this week.  Was that justified, or did we just see an attempt to fill his stats against a weaker opponent so he could get that record we hear so much about?  (Note to coaches:  we don't care about the record.  If he gets the record and we have a losing season, nobody will see the record as a positive.  Did we not learn that good is the enemy of the great?)

Ok, let's focus in a little more on the passing numbers:

Qb_comparison_chart_medium

A few notes on the passing statistics in the games so far:

  • Nick Stephens's completion percentage is comparable to Crompton's vs. UAB and Florida.  Something in the 60% range is good at the college level.
  • Nick's Yards-per-Attempt was the highest of all games so far.  Of course, Stephens had a couple of long strikes that raised this up considerably.  But he had long strikes.
  • Auburn put more pressure on the QB than any other team so far.  In only 23 pass attempts by UT, Auburn manages a sack or a hurry (as recorded by NCAA stats) in 8 plays - roughly 1 in every 3 plays.  Might that have something to do with the low completion percentage?
  • Stephens was sacked more than Crompton in any single game, but did not face consistent pressure otherwise.  We'll have to wait to see how Nick handles pressure.  (Hopefully we never have to find out!)
  • Stephens was locked in on Wide Receivers.  The distribution in the chart only scores completions, not attempts, but it's pretty obvious that Stephens loved him some wide receivers.  The tight ends just have to be more involved in the passing game.  (How about not broadcasting that during press conferences this time?)  Also, what happened to the RB screens and throws into the flat?
  • If this trend continues, we won't even need a QB soon.  The number of pass attempts have been dropping off to levels not seen in ages.  More on this later.

Now, let's look at the completion percentages as functions of gametime.  The next few graphs will show the completion percentages after every passing play.  Sacks, Hurries, and INTs will also be shown.  Keep in mind that there will be a lot of variation early until the stats stabilize.

Qb_passing_trends_medium

  • One of these things is not like the other.  One of these things just doesn't belong.  The most obvious "what the hey?" moment in these charts is the Auburn game.  Crompton started with a string of incompletions, never saw a 50% completion percentage, then ended with that precipitous string of incompletions to bookend the whole thing.  He appeared to be destined for a completion percentage of about 35-38% if he had more opportunities, which is wholly unacceptable at the college level.
  • Crompton did not appear to be fazed by pressure.  There is no pattern to Crompton's passing success following sacks/hurries/ints; he appears to enjoy the same success/failure after such plays (and during, even) as on the plays with no pressure.  Say what you will about the kid, he's a resilient player.
  • Crompton has a tendency to go on incompletion streaks.  It's most noticeable in the UCLA and Auburn games (incidentally, both are road games).  This is what we saw that always aggravated us so much.  Consecutive incompletions tend to kill drives more so than isolated completions.  And once we saw an incompletion, we were primed to zoom our attention in on more.
  • Stephens had the best completion streak to date.  Nick's 5 consecutive completions was the best string so far.  Now, completions take two players - the QB and the receiver - but let's hope that keeps up.
  • You can't see it in the charts, but Gerald Jones was the intended target for more incompletions than any other player.  And it wasn't even close.  Part of that is that Jones was the intended target for all throws more than any other player, but if we start watching receivers as closely as we watch QBs, we may find Jones to be the most inconsistent of the receivers.  Again, I don't know; the numbers don't tell us who is responsible for the incompletions, they just give us an indication of where to start looking.

Now, for some odds and ends.

Pass_play_percentage_medium

Clawson has been leaning more and more on the run game every week.  At the current pace, we'll end up with a pure running game by the end of the season, as seen by the dashed trendline.  The biggest blip is the apparent increase in the pass/run ratio during the Florida game.  However, if were were to correct for the kill-the-clock strategy at the end of the UAB game, we might find the passing trend to continue more consistently.  We're going to have to mix in more passes someday if we want to see the offense move.

Play_distribution_medium

If we take another angle at the pass/run plays, we'll note that UT has been very consistently rushing the ball just over 30 times a game.  The one blip in the blue line is the result of the kill-the-clock strategy inflating the number of rushes.  However, that yellow line is astoundingly consistent; UT is losing 5.6 pass plays per game (r^2 of about 0.96 for the trendline geeks out there).  If that trend holds, UT is projected to throw 1 pass (!!!) against Alabama. (Maybe we are headed toward this.)

Teams are figuring out how to kill the clock.  I believe that teams were calling plays very quickly during the first few games of the season to avoid delay of game penalties.  However, now that teams are getting a sense of the pace, they're using up the clock and limiting the number of plays.

Getting an early lead is more important than ever before.  The team with the lead gets to dictate the pace of the game.  With the new clock rules, you can run out of bounds and still bleed the clock, which opens up the passing game for clock-killing.  The team with the lead can use the full playbook to kill the clock.  And they are.  Meanwhile, the trailing team gets a severely limited playbook, which means that having a quick lead can drastically tilt the game flow in favor of the leading team.  I don't think this was an intended consequence of the clock rules, but it's there.  UT needs to figure out a quick-strike offense.

Yellow and blue make green.  Just thought I'd throw that out there for you.

 

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"Visually see the game"?

“When evaluating Stephens’s play, keep in mind that I did not visually see the game.”

That reminds me of Mitch Hedberg’s old bit:

"I was walking down the street with my friend and he said ‘I hear music,’ as though there’s any other way to take it in. ’You’re not special. That’s how I receive it too… I tried to taste it, but it did not work.’"

Lou Brock loves Lamp.

by birdjam on Oct 6, 2008 9:04 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah.

That didn’t come out in print quite the way it sounded in my mind. Ah, the joys of text conversation.

by hooper on Oct 6, 2008 9:09 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good to see the numbers

I was at the game, so I can try to answer a few of your questions.

The biggest difference between watching Stephens play and watching Crompton play is that I didn’t feel like my stomach was in my throat the whole time. He had poise. He exuded confidence. He was moving guys around to get the formations correct (wish he would have told G. Jones to step off of the LOS on the flagged play, though).When he dropped backed to pass, I wasn’t nervous about what would happen. There were times when he was locked on to one receiver, but there were others where I would see his helmet move, scanning the field. He stood in the pocket and did not panic. When he released the ball, I was confident it was on target. If you take away two dropped balls and two that were thrown to wide open receivers in the flat, but were knocked down at the LOS (which you can’t, ’cause those things happen), his accuracy and consistency are even more evident.

The offense still had two drive killing mistakes (both fumbles), but they were more of the tolerable variety. The Briscoe fumble should have been an incomplete pass, I think, and Stephens was hit from the blind side when he coughed up the pig skin. Each of those were huge because the Big Mo’ was in our favor at both times. Still bad, bad, bad, but much better than not being able to hand the ball off to the running back.

I’m not sure what to say about Foster. He wasn’t playing outstanding, but then neither did Hardesty, at least in terms of Hardesty’s usual level of play. Foster had a few big plays, but was caught from behind too many times to be ultimately pleased with his performance. Hardesty danced around in the backfield on the last drive, failing to pick up the requisite yards for a first down. Certainly partially due to the mediocre blocking, but may have had something to do with a lack of rhythm. So, I really didn’t see one playing better than the other — each of them had a few big plays. I hate playing the guessing/conspiracy game that UT fans are so wont to do, so I won’t speculate on the reason for Foster’s rise in number of carries. You could just as easily say that they rested Hardesty (who is injury prone) to make sure he is good to go for the UGA game.

Stephens at least appeared to handle pressure fairly well. His eyes were always down field, and he protected the football. The deep pass to Gerald Jones was made under duress (stepped up in the pocket! couldn’t believe my eyes!) and he took a shot as he released it (somehow he didn’t go down). Another time he stepped up in the pocket as it was collapsing and fell forward, covering the ball. Another time he scrambled about 50 yards, and picked up I think 4 (did the smart thing at the end of the run, falling forward to avoid a big hit). And the only other time I remember him being pressured was in the red zone after (I think) the Berry interception. He made a throw to the sideline end zone(presumably to Gerald Jones) that was almost caught for a touchdown. It was probably a dangerous throw (Fulmer didn’t like it), but I thought it was thrown to an open enough space on the sideline as to be relatively safe. A faster safety may have picked it off though.

We do need to utilize the tight ends more, but keep in mind that one of the dropped passes was to Brandon Warren in the flat. I know the commenters at GVX love this guy to death, but though I do love the big plays he’s made, I don’t like his lack of consistency. He’s obviously a dynamic player, but IMO Luke Stocker gives us the best option right now. It will be great having Cottam back in the mix, so we can hopefully do some two TE sets. Not sure how that scheme fits into the Clawfense though. Anyway, I’m not sure what an acceptable number would be, but if Warren catches that ball, then approx 20% of the completions were to tight ends. I was just happy that we were hitting quick slants for 5 – 6 yards, and I think we even completed one or two across the middle of the field.

Gerald Jones did have one drop in this game, but I’m not sure about previous games. He has made enough great catches (ball thrown behind him, too high, etc), that I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Stephens is much more accurate passer, so if Jones’ trend of incompletions continues, well, I just don’t want to think about it, ha. How does his percentage of incompletions compare with the other receivers?

I do not like the new clock rules. Unless my team is winning. Then I love them.

by rblakeh on Oct 6, 2008 9:14 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks. That really helps.

As far as Warren goes, I do know that defenses have keyed in on him, making it harder to throw to him. If that opens up other receivers, I’m fine with that. It seems to be the case. But I agree that Stocker has been doing a terrific job. He should never have been razzed by our fans when he came off the field against UAB.

Good point on the rest for Hardesty.

How was the velocity on Nick’s passes?

I’d really like to know more about UNI’s defensive scheme. I have a hunch they sold out against the run, but I can’t know for sure; no stats sheet ever bothers describing the defense.

Lastly, I’d like to take a look at the receiver completion percentages. I didn’t have time to do it for this post and I wanted to get the data out there, so it got punted this time around. If I have time during the week, I’ll revisit it. It’s not going to be particularly useful unless there’s a way to assign blame for incompletions (tipped?, dropped?, errant?), but it would at least give us a short list of players to focus on. As you said, Warren had some notable drops to date, and I think he’s already on that short list in most peoples’ minds.

by hooper on Oct 6, 2008 9:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am not a QB scout, but I would say very good velocity on Nick’s passes. I can remember one pass that I saw on the replay (I think a 6 yard slant to Aaron Rogers) that would have been picked off were it not for his quick release and high velocity on throws. Rogers (if that’s who it was) had a corner on his back shoulder with linebacker (or someone, I can’t remember what their defense was on this play) help to the inside. Stephens releases, the cover man to the middle breaks for the ball very quickly (I think he was reading the qb and anticipating that throw), but the ball got through comfortably for the completion. If that ball is thrown off target at all, or just too slow, it is probably 6 points for UNIU.

I can’t say much about the defensive scheme for the Huskies, but on the two deep completions the receivers had single coverage with no safety in what I would estimate to be a 15 – 20 yard radius. The first deep pass, just Jones was down the field. The second one both Moore and (I think) Warren were down field, each with one DB. Again, no safety. The middle of the field was pretty congested, but Stephens worked the perimeter pretty well. I was impressed with his ability to complete passes to the sideline 10+ yards down the field, with the balls arriving on time. Check out a replay of the game if you can. I am probably overplaying the good and downplaying the bad, but it really was a breath of fresh air.

by rblakeh on Oct 6, 2008 10:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That makes a lot of sense.

If UNI was leaving single coverage on the outside, they were bringing the safeties inward to help against the run. That really sounds like a defense that sold out to stop the run. Given that we ran nearly twice as often as we threw, the strategy was sound. Georgia will probably leave better safety help against the pass because they’ll be inherently better up front. It’ll be interesting to see how that affects things.

by hooper on Oct 6, 2008 10:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its about leadership...

Hooper,

I watched the entire game (I have seen every game, follow articles, blogs, etc…true "Fanatic").

I am also in the leadership consulting business with Army and outside. I think I can watch an organization and say, “there is a leadership issue here.”

I say several leadership issues because of not just poor quarterback play, but penalties, dropped passes, poor blocking and poor communication (routes ran, etc…).

I go back and say "there are several leadership issue(s) here. In the 1998 championship team, it was not just talent, but leadership. The team rallied around the new quarterback Tee Martin and made it happen.

I hate the blame Fulmer approach. The team must take responsibility as well, though the coach makes the big bucks to find a way to motivate people to win.

1. The team is playing way too tight. I watched Dave Clawson for three years at Richmond, and loved when Fulmer hired him (and had high expectations of something like Urban Myer spread). But, I would guess that Fulmer is overriding Clawson’s play calling. Even with a new quarterback, it is way too conservative. They have nothing to lose to “open it up.” When you have an organization that does not function well at many levels, decision making remains conservative. Also when an organization over time makes just conservative decision (risk averse), the organization follows suit as well. Against teams like UCLA, UAB and UNI, great opportunities to see what that engine under the hood can do, and only a couple of times did they. UNI left single coverage many times, should have opened up early on, receivers were beating their secondary most of the time I could see.

2. One of thes strengths was the offensive line, and it is not opening the holes, or performing like last year in pass protection. No surge when needed. Where is the lineman providing leadership? Does the line feel it is worth the effort if the backs are not hitting the hole with full speed?

3. Dropped balls. Imagine if the receivers had not dropped half of those passes (normal) they did drop, likely 3-2 record even 4-1 right now. Unlike last year, we have proven receivers and tight ends. What is going on?

4. Killer mistakes, fumbles, penalties are piling up, as well as at the worst time (there is no good time for penalties, but the consistently is telling.

5. I think Arian Foster is not playing to his full potential. There is something wrong with his attitude right now. I think he has the potential to be a great back, does not have open speed, but I saw a big improvement in last year, making people miss, strength and use of stiff arm, moves inside off tackles,as well. Something is bothering him.

6. Maybe the problem is the players are silently rebelling to not being allowed to open up? I have heard that before. When I really trusted my subordinates, I would allow them to do more risky plans, take more chances. With NIU, that is what I would have done, what do we have to lose at this point?

7. Stephens did well for his first full game. I did see confidence. But, I would have let him through more deep as well. The fumble was a blind side fumble, now an incompetence fumble as Foster and Crompton have made. Maybe this is the spark the team needs? But, it needs to come from more than one player.

Bottom line, is something is quietly pulling the team apart, as well as not pushing players to lead this team out of this dismal performance. I still believe this team is as talented as GA or FLA, but there is no leadership. If you want to see leadership, look at Vandy or FLA at the player and coaching levels. My theory is the coaches are playing too tight, and the players are then accepting subpar playing ability as their reaction.

Don

Don Vandergriff

by ArmyVOL on Oct 6, 2008 1:38 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again, thanks. I'm quickly learning to love your insights.

I would agree that leadership seems to be a serious issue with the team. To me it’s not so much that the team is in a tough spot, it’s that nobody seems to have a coherent direction out of it. We hear how almost every aspect of the team “needs work”, but I don’t get the sense they’re all necessarily working to the same goal.

You also hit on the million-dollar question: how much of the offensive playcalling is Clawson’s, and how much is, um, adjusted outside of his control? If I knew the answer to that question, I could come to far more certain conclusions about the offense.

If I could, let me follow up with one more question. Over the last few years, these players have heard of the rise of Richt, the return of Spurrier, the hiring of Les Miles, of Meyer, and of Saban. In Kentucky, Brooks is turning things around. In Vanderbilt, Johnson is annually praised as a guy who doesn’t get enough credit. Everywhere these players look, SEC teams are making huge changes and investing a lot of effort in finding ways to improve. I wonder: are the players still waiting to see how UT responds to the changes in the league? It’s like hearing that your competitor is unveiling a new product at a trade show but your company is sticking with the same product they’ve sold for years. It might work alright, but it’d be easy to lose faith in it without some indication that the company direction is administered with purpose and foresight.

by hooper on Oct 6, 2008 3:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Possibly, but...

Wouldn’t a better analogy be if your competitors are rolling out new products and you’re in R&D for your company? I mean, if you’re waiting to see what UT does and you’re on the team, you …well, kind of have a role in it. Right?

by Graysnail on Oct 6, 2008 8:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure. That'd work too.

Though when I got as far as “you’re in R&D for your company”, I was expecting you to finish up with something about watching film…

by hooper on Oct 6, 2008 8:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nope!

Even I know better than to think they’re watching film. ;)

by Graysnail on Oct 6, 2008 8:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree.

i have seen, in two game replays, two pre-game locker room speeches that were not what i would deem as inspiring. the players appear to be listening to a lecture (after a three day week-end) on the correct usage of new cover pages for the TPS reports. the coach(es), as motivating as Lumberg (i like Office Space, okay?). hopefully, this will change now that there is some confidence and ability shown from the qb position, however, someone needs to step up and be that loud, hoarse, spittle-flying voice (where are you, Al?) to bring some fire back to the team.
 wondering- are we experiencing a split between the O &D? i hope that is not the case, but the defense is playing well (enough), only to be let down by subpar offense.
  idea- we need 30 clones of #14-STAT!

whoshotwhointhewhatnow?

by thetennesseethumper on Oct 7, 2008 9:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was impressed

I came away impressed with Stephens for two reasons.

The first is that Stephens throws the ball to a spot. With Crompton I’m always neurotic when he drops back because he has this tendency to lock and in and fire the ball to a receiver regardless of whats going on around him. Result: Either receiver killed, pass deflected, or at worst pick. So back to throwing to a spot: Stephens, despite having a gunslinger reputation from the little media info about him, seemed very adept at throwing to a particular spot on the receiver. For example, there were a couple of hitch routes where he threw right at the receivers knees. Ball started high and went low on a straight trajectory towards the receivers’ legs. The guy sitting next to me thought he was just inaccurate. I, on the other hand, thought he was throwing to a spot where only his guy had a shot. He did this a couple times and I thought that this was a great sign. Yeah, throwing every ball as hard as you can into the numbers can be effective…On the other hand throwing to specific spots on the receiver’s body can help minimize disasters in the form of interceptions. One of the legends replays was a perfect example of this. Tee Martin threws a psuedo five yard out to Cedrick Wilson after he gets position in front of and has the front side end zone. Sorry, this is a minute point but it’s just one of those little things I picked up from Stephens.

2. Also was dazzled by Stephens’ long passes. The first one he threw, he did not have his legs right and it was all upper body. He was moving up in the pocket, stopped himself with both feet and strong armed it down the field. That was a heck of a pass. It takes a lot of talent and confidence to throw that ball. I jumped out of my seat after that pass. The second was a similar situation where he didn’t have his feet set under him due to pressure. And still he found his guy and made another heck of a pass. The reason these passes worked was because he has a quick, confident release. Crompton would have gotten hit mid throw as his release is a might slower. Seems like these two guys have about the same mobility in the pocket. Both are tough runners and got absolutely worked on a couple of hits this year.

Botton line, I liked what little I saw. NIU basically killed the first quarter T.O.P. so the sample size is a little small. While they obviously need to finish drives, I do feel like there were some positive things to take from the game.

Also, what is the word on the Helmet Rule? I had no idea they have a new rule where if a ball carrier’s helmet comes off the team gets charged a time out. Or is it just for the quarterback?

Someday we'll look back on this and plow into a parked car.

by MeytonPanning on Oct 6, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

“Botton line, I liked what little I saw. NIU basically killed the first quarter T.O.P. so the sample size is a little small. While they obviously need to finish drives, I do feel like there were some positive things to take from the game.”

This is the first time all season that I feel like we have something to build on. After previous games I’ve thought, “If we can just eliminate the mistakes…,” but I was still approaching it from a fresh start approach. Now some good things have happened, so there are some real positives (in terms of future potential) to focus on in addition to the many issues that need to be corrected.

by rblakeh on Oct 6, 2008 2:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know about the helmet rule.

Was this an issue during the game? I missed it.

by hooper on Oct 6, 2008 3:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Now that is one serious breakdown...

Hooper:

I’m going to have to designate you an expert in something in one of my cases some day, if for no other reason than to show up with all your cool charts.

Very nice stuff, which tells a peculiarly bizarre story. I was pretty happy with Stephens in his debut. The rest of the offense, however, is going to have to pick it up a bit though if he’s going to have any hope of success.

The general consensus on B&B this morning was that the Vols win 2 more games and that’s it.

Ouch!

by lawvol98 on Oct 6, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You might want to think twice about using me as an "expert".

Remember that I’m in engineering; we’re incapable of lying when it comes to factual matters. ;-)

by hooper on Oct 6, 2008 3:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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