The RTT computer BlogPoll ballot: raw numbers, week twelve

by Joel on Nov 17, 2008 6:47 AM EST in College Football Comment 12 comments

This here's the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll computer ballot. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here. You can also hit the "blogpoll" tag below the post for a list of all of the related stories.

Prior tweaks to the system: (1) added experience ratings; (2) adjusted the weighting with a "square root of the sum of the squares." Why? I'll you why: I don't know. (3) revised the way tied teams were ranked; (4) began sorting the win/loss category based on losing percentage to hopefully alleviate the penalty to teams with early byes; (5) (a) adjusted the weighting of the win/loss factor and (b) adjusted the strength of schedule factor by subjecting the NCAA past opposition figures to a strength of conference rating. Conferences were divided into two categories: BCS and non-BCS; and (6) modified the Conference Ratings so that there were three categories instead of just BCS and non-BCS. The new categories are (a) the SEC and the Big12, (b) the other BCS conferences, and (c) the non-BCS conferences.

Tweaks for this week:

None.
The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
The current weighting of the categories: 100, 15, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Then tweaked by the square root of the sum of the squares maneuver.
Current spreadsheet here.

All right, then. The Top 35, according to the computer:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	EXP	OPPG	TO	3DD	AVG R	W AVG
1	Texas Tech	1	7	47	20	1	60	8	68	46	2	28	26.18	61.60
2	Alabama	1	31	6	3	37	3	61	95	6	52	2	27.00	76.81
3	Texas	6	1	59	4	4	58	3	116	25	9	42	29.73	90.39
4	Florida	9	4	7	11	16	6	9	116	4	25	9	19.64	93.68
5	Oklahoma	9	11	28	21	20	55	2	59	57	4	11	25.18	98.07
6	Southern California	9	49	1	6	24	2	12	72	1	14	6	17.82	124.93
7	Ohio St.	12	27	14	26	30	13	33	59	7	84	66	33.73	127.17
8	Penn St.	6	63	2	10	10	4	26	38	5	18	14	17.82	128.61
9	Georgia	12	2	60	14	44	24	16	90	58	23	54	36.09	129.61
10	Oklahoma St.	12	19	67	27	19	77	4	45	58	7	47	34.73	137.61
11	Missouri	12	15	73	40	5	89	6	32	55	6	79	37.45	140.87
12	Utah	1	91	36	7	21	11	20	14	13	35	10	23.55	169.49
13	Michigan St.	12	53	12	73	84	48	75	68	25	66	55	51.91	172.14
14	Boise St.	1	94	3	12	31	12	10	114	2	15	13	27.91	177.64
15	TCU	12	79	8	1	8	1	67	26	3	31	5	21.91	183.44
16	Cincinnati	19	42	34	25	106	42	30	59	35	48	12	41.09	206.54
17	BYU	6	111	42	71	3	54	7	49	21	17	102	43.91	221.09
18	Ball St.	1	119	22	74	6	49	5	53	9	12	74	38.55	226.45
19	Pittsburgh	22	47	70	30	56	32	73	77	63	45	62	52.45	234.33
20	Western Mich.	12	112	54	58	35	87	15	14	43	22	64	46.91	245.17
21	LSU	26	8	32	15	61	27	76	77	64	39	23	40.73	246.87
22	Northwestern	23	65	38	44	23	51	87	59	31	64	29	46.73	250.80
23	North Carolina	26	24	18	66	51	57	32	72	17	93	76	48.36	252.12
24	Florida St.	26	40	29	23	22	5	79	53	30	43	1	31.91	252.97
25	Oregon St.	26	46	26	22	48	15	27	12	40	26	4	26.55	254.72
26	Oregon	23	64	51	37	70	75	81	38	74	13	72	54.36	255.70
27	Air Force	23	78	39	53	36	35	18	7	22	54	84	40.82	259.79
28	Miami (Fla.)	26	41	40	19	96	10	89	18	37	100	53	48.09	261.88
29	Georgia Tech	26	52	21	35	55	14	62	109	11	65	63	46.64	263.78
30	Boston College	26	56	5	9	67	8	104	68	14	89	25	42.82	266.94
31	Maryland	26	59	62	67	49	64	64	22	23	71	38	49.55	275.03
32	Central Mich.	19	101	98	50	11	99	17	95	83	30	77	61.82	275.89
33	Connecticut	26	60	9	31	95	16	111	109	19	55	17	49.82	276.24
34	Tulsa	19	116	114	41	1	101	1	49	94	1	90	57.00	296.62
35	Rice	26	95	97	103	15	115	11	32	112	11	107	65.82	320.67

Shaping up quite nicely, I think. But it's still subject to human override. Candidates (those that are around five spots or more off from the major polls):

Possibly out of order

Alabama and Texas Tech
Florida and Texas

Possibly too high

Western Michigan
Florida State

Possibly too low

Boise State

Any others that you see?

Current draft ballot, without any interventions yet:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Texas Tech	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Texas	--
4	Florida	1
5	Oklahoma	1
6	Southern Cal	--
7	Ohio State	2
8	Penn State	1
9	Georgia	1
10	Oklahoma State	2
11	Missouri	2
12	Utah	4
13	Michigan State	1
14	Boise State	3
15	TCU	--
16	Cincinnati	3
17	Brigham Young	4
18	Ball State	2
19	Pittsburgh	3
20	Western Michigan	4
21	LSU	5
22	Northwestern	4
23	North Carolina	7
24	Florida State	7
25	Oregon State	1

Dropped Out: Air Force (#18), South Carolina (#23), Virginia Tech (#25).

We'll use up to three vetoes of the computer rankings. Now soliciting suggestions.

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Comments

Utah and Boise State got hammered by your conference adjustment.

By weighting in favor of the Big 12 and SEC, teams 7-11 in your current ranking all benefited at the expense of teams like Utah and Boise. Make of it what you will; that’s simply what happened.

Oh, and how in the world can Utah’s SoS be 91? They played Michigan, 1-A’s active all-time winningest pro- oh, right.

(Am I the only one who takes comfort knowing that UT’s record is almost guaranteed to be better than Michigan’s?)

by Hooper on Nov 17, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I kind of like it. Do you think it’s over- or under-weighted?

And no, you’re not the only one who’s looking to Michigan for comfort.

Go Vols!

by Joel on Nov 17, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know. I’d have to look at the conference weightings and get a feel for them first. I’m a little skittish about the conference weighting thing in the first place. Because teams play so many conference opponents, the conference records against nonconference opponents end up making a noticeable difference in SoS. I would need to get a better feel for that, though. I just don’t know the answer to that yet.

by Hooper on Nov 17, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was developed as a response

To the Big 10 teams basically getting way too much love, and it’s intended to be a correction to adjust for teams playing crappy OOC schedules. Ideally, the scaling factor should be applied against the stats generated against the OOC teams, and it comes out in the wash for conference opponents, by and large. I think.

by Graysnail on Nov 17, 2008 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Florida:

Still one game fewer than Texas. Let them win that game first. Then they can bump past Texas.

(Note: a win by Oklahoma would likely accomplish the same thing for them. Maybe even USC, though it seems unlikely.)

by Hooper on Nov 17, 2008 11:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Florida State:

I think FSU is alright. Looking at the teams with similar records, I can’t really make a solid argument that any of them should be ranked above them. I know that BC won, but BC has their own skeletons in the closet as well.

BTW, did you notice that the ACC’s highest team is ranked #23? There’s a real (but unlikely) possibility that their conference winner isn’t even in the top 25 come bowl time.

by Hooper on Nov 17, 2008 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

FSU is way too high

/reflex

by Graysnail on Nov 17, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Western Mich:

I know nothing about them, so I can’t argue. However, having one more non-conference team above anybody in the ACC is fine with me. (The count is 6. Also, three are ahead of the top team in the Big East, which ’Snail will point out is Cincy – the team led by his favorite coach-crush.)

by Hooper on Nov 17, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs