The RTT computer BlogPoll ballot: raw numbers, week eleven

by Joel on Nov 9, 2008 7:36 AM EST in College Football Comment 5 comments

This here's the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll computer ballot. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here. You can also hit the "blogpoll" tag below the post for a list of all of the related stories.

Prior tweaks to the system: (1) added experience ratings; (2) adjusted the weighting with a "square root of the sum of the squares." Why? I'll you why: I don't know. (3) revised the way tied teams were ranked; (4) began sorting the win/loss category based on losing percentage to hopefully alleviate the penalty to teams with early byes; (5) (a) adjusted the weighting of the win/loss factor and (b) adjusted the strength of schedule factor by subjecting the NCAA past opposition figures to a strength of conference rating. Conferences were divided into two categories: BCS and non-BCS; and (6) modified the Conference Ratings so that there were three categories instead of just BCS and non-BCS. The new categories are (a) the SEC and the Big12, (b) the other BCS conferences, and (c) the non-BCS conferences.

Tweaks for this week:

None, although I think I'd be comfortable with a head-to-head fix to elimate things like Oklahoma being ranked above Texas when they have identical win/loss numbers and the Longhorns beat the Sooners by ten. Not quite sure how to set that up, though.
The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
The current weighting of the categories: 100, 15, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Then tweaked by the square root of the sum of the squares maneuver.
Current spreadsheet here.

All right, then. The Top 35, according to the computer:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	EXP	OPPG	TO	3DD	AVG R	W AVG
1	Texas Tech	1	6	46	19	3	57	8	68	48	2	28	26.00	59.85
2	Alabama	1	27	7	4	37	4	63	95	7	59	2	27.82	72.29
3	Oklahoma	6	11	30	20	23	51	3	59	56	3	12	24.91	76.64
4	Texas	6	3	68	6	4	60	2	116	37	9	42	32.09	95.37
5	Florida	10	9	14	21	21	14	10	116	4	31	22	24.73	104.74
6	Penn St.	6	57	5	9	9	6	23	38	5	19	25	18.36	118.90
7	Southern California	10	51	1	3	24	1	12	72	1	12	5	17.45	133.50
8	Utah	1	77	35	8	45	11	27	14	15	39	11	25.73	147.10
9	Ohio St.	15	22	10	17	26	7	35	59	6	89	65	31.91	147.36
10	Georgia	15	2	63	13	35	28	19	90	63	22	47	36.09	153.49
11	Boise St.	1	80	2	15	33	10	6	114	2	20	6	26.27	153.53
12	Missouri	15	8	77	46	8	87	5	32	56	6	79	38.09	163.09
13	Oklahoma St.	15	16	78	32	20	84	4	45	60	7	56	37.91	163.96
14	Michigan St.	13	56	15	72	79	46	76	68	30	68	51	52.18	180.08
15	TCU	13	79	8	1	6	2	67	26	3	29	4	21.64	188.95
16	North Carolina	21	28	24	59	31	54	29	72	21	92	72	45.73	209.13
17	Florida St.	21	45	29	14	17	5	72	53	26	37	1	29.09	213.24
18	Air Force	15	89	26	58	32	25	14	7	17	63	78	38.55	218.78
19	Cincinnati	21	35	34	25	114	43	30	59	38	53	14	42.36	219.68
20	Ball St.	1	116	18	76	7	48	7	53	9	11	53	36.27	221.26
21	BYU	6	114	43	50	2	45	9	49	19	17	103	41.55	222.62
22	Pittsburgh	21	49	71	36	60	32	74	77	62	42	62	53.27	229.12
23	South Carolina	26	25	12	11	51	3	60	26	10	86	16	29.64	245.43
24	Western Mich.	15	105	55	57	43	86	17	14	50	23	76	49.18	249.14
25	Tulsa	10	119	105	37	1	88	1	49	73	1	84	51.64	257.41
26	Georgia Tech	26	50	19	41	56	16	62	109	12	65	63	47.18	262.98
27	Northwestern	26	60	49	44	22	58	89	59	39	56	39	49.18	271.89
28	Minnesota	26	59	52	65	71	70	42	112	22	75	27	56.45	277.80
29	Oregon	26	65	51	28	71	66	95	38	64	13	54	51.91	278.78
30	Central Mich.	21	100	104	61	13	98	20	95	81	30	93	65.09	288.97
31	LSU	32	10	41	23	62	24	68	77	59	33	18	40.64	300.21
32	Miami (Fla.)	32	36	36	24	97	15	85	18	45	98	63	49.91	309.84
33	Oregon St.	32	54	25	27	40	17	22	12	45	25	7	27.82	309.99
34	West Virginia	32	55	16	34	53	23	37	53	11	72	81	42.45	312.40
35	Virginia Tech	32	30	72	16	80	18	94	105	34	109	30	56.36	312.52

So what human overrides are called for this week? Candidates (those that are around five spots or more off from the major polls) (remember, this will be updated later):

Possibly out of order

Oklahoma and Texas

Possibly too high

Penn State
Utah
Michigan State
North Carolina
Florida State
Air Force
Cincinnati
Western Michigan

Possibly too low

Florida
Southern Cal

Any others that you see?

Current draft ballot, without any interventions yet:

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Texas Tech	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Oklahoma	3
4	Texas	--
5	Florida	--
6	Penn State	3
7	Southern Cal	1
8	Utah	6
9	Ohio State	1
10	Georgia	2
11	Boise State	2
12	Missouri	1
13	Oklahoma State	6
14	Michigan State	4
15	TCU	4
16	North Carolina	4
17	Florida State	8
18	Air Force	4
19	Cincinnati	7
20	Ball State	1
21	Brigham Young	4
22	Pittsburgh	4
23	South Carolina	3
24	Western Michigan	2
25	Virginia Tech	1

Dropped Out: Georgia Tech (#15), Northwestern (#16), Minnesota (#21), Tulsa (#23), LSU (#24).

We'll use up to three vetoes of the computer rankings. Now soliciting suggestions.

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Comments

Florida's fine.

They have that “one fewer games played” thing going against them. They might indeed be deserving of the #3 slot (which they’d have merely with another win), but let ’em earn it first.

Same (as always) with So.Cal. Let ’em prove it by playing as many games as everybody else, and they would be between Texas and Penn State right now. (That ignores Florida for the above reasons.)

by Hooper on Nov 9, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm fine with Utah.

I value undefeated more than style points. If they lose a game, they’ll fall off the map, but there’s nothing wrong with them getting credit for their standing as it is. Besides, that virtual tie b/w them and OSU will be interesting to watch.

Same with Boise St. and Georgia. I’d honestly put Boise above UGA due to the undefeated. As with Utah, a loss sends them off the map entirely.

by Hooper on Nov 9, 2008 12:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just FYI

You might consider a head-to-head fix for Oklahoma St. and Missouri as well. And while I realize eight spots is a big jump, including South Carolina at the expense of the LSU team that beat them in Columbia seems a bit unfair. Just my two cents.

by JCCW Jerry on Nov 9, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

If Head-to-head is worhty of consideration for UT and OU where the margins are quite large, it would be demanded by Mizzou vs. OSU where the margin is tiny.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 9, 2008 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

for the heads up on Oklahoma State and Missouri. I’ll fix that, too. On LSU/South Carolina, I’ll probably leave it because South Carolina has one more win.

Go Vols!

by Joel on Nov 12, 2008 6:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs