Talking points: all quiet on the East Tennessee front edition

by Joel Hollingsworth on Dec 9, 2008 7:37 AM EST in Rocky Top Talking Points

Not a lot happening around these parts lately. The football team's done for the year, and the men's basketball program is in the middle of a 10-day gameless period. Still, things are busy behind the curtain.

Bruce Pearl is using the time off to get the collective attention of his players. Poo on that shiny new No. 8 ranking. Pearl is sounding like Eeyore on speed, saying that "I guarantee you there are a lot more than 10 teams in the country that are better than us." The linked article goes on and on about the deficiencies of this team, and Pearl is throwing three of the starting spots open for competition. Bobby Maze and Josh Tabb are battling for the starting point guard spot, Wayne Chism and Brian Williams are vying for the starting center position, and Scotty Hopson and Cameron Tatum are competing to be the starting shooting guards. Not open for competition is Tyler Smith's spot, as he was just named SEC Player of the Week for his history-making triple double last week against UNC-Asheville.
Meanwhile, Lane Kiffin and staff are jetting about the country trying to lure young men to Rocky Top. Still getting a lot of attention is VHT and Tennessee de-commit Jarvis Giles, who said after Fulmer was fired that he'd re-commit to Tennessee if running backs coach Stan Drayton was retained. Drayton, who has in fact been retained, postponed his scheduled visit to Giles until yesterday so that he could see Giles after Steve Spurrier. Giles reportedly will announce his decision between Tennessee and South Carolina at noon today.
Helping to pay for all of those trips across the country is our very own former coach Fulmer, who's taken a temp position as special assistant to Tennessee President John Petersen. He'll be doing speaking engagements at donor events, I'm guessing.
And yeah, Eric Berry is the AP's SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Woo for Crunch Berry.
And finally, um, I don't like the sound of this: Tampa Bay and Monte Kiffin's defense destroyed by the Carolina Panthers? Good news, bad news, there.

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If the MNF game has you worried, remember to take the long view of the situation.

And let the best stats guys in football show you just how good Monte Kiffin’s defenses are. Even in the NFL, an off game is going to happen every now and then. Carolina has a good offense, so it’s not like this happened against the Lions.

by David Hooper on Dec 9, 2008 8:03 AM EST reply actions

Good to know

I don’t follow the NFL, so it’s comforting to know.

What does the end of their season look like? Will they make the playoffs? If not, when is Monte available? If so, what are their projections?

Go Vols!

by Joel Hollingsworth on Dec 9, 2008 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

Currently, they hold the #5 seed in the NFC.

They play at Atlanta (1 game behind them in-division), then at home against San Diego and Oakland. Most likely, they’ll go 2-1 out of that. Depending on which game is the 1, they may or may not be in. If they beat Atlanta, they’re just about locked into the playoffs. But that loss to Carolina pretty well guarantees that they’re not going to be the division winner.

So they’re most likely in. And I think their defense has been better than their offense, but I haven’t followed them closely enough to be certain of that.

by David Hooper on Dec 9, 2008 9:20 AM EST up reply actions

As a Panther Fan

I am worried.

We end the season on a brutal schedule (Denver, @ NYG, @ NO) 2 losses there would take the Bucs into division lead if they win out.

by bobo_the_vol on Dec 9, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

As a Broncos Fan

I am worried about that game against Carolina. Denver has done well in the Eastern Time Zone this year, but that’s always a hard trip, even if it’s just a 2-hour lag. As flaky as that team is, I really think the Panthers have a bigger advantage than it may seem.

But we’ll see. I mean, even the Lions have a chance of winning a game, right?

by David Hooper on Dec 10, 2008 6:59 AM EST up reply actions

Monte's body of work

Monte has more than enough of a sample size in the NFL for me to be worried about single-game blips. It happens sometimes.

by Chris Pendley on Dec 9, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions

tampa's defense looked AWFUL

38 points, 299 yards rushing.

however, i’m pretty sure monte doesn’t do the tackling, which was high school level at best. monte doesn’t pick the pursuit angles, which were also terrible. and the total lack of contain on the edge is because people aren’t covering their assignments properly, which is also not the DC’s job. and last but not least, any time the tampa 2 gets beat deep, it’s not the scheme, it’s a safety getting torched, which happened on steve smith’s long td catch, not that it’s all that embarrassing to get beat by one of the best in steve smith.

i think the players would tell you the same, that it was way more about their total lack of execution than the strategy itself. in the first meeting between these two, monte’s boys gave up 3 points and 40 yards rushing. i think it’s pretty safe to say they just had an off night in a big way.

by hal41605 on Dec 9, 2008 10:18 AM EST reply actions

Thanks.

I didn’t see the game, so I had no idea how it played out. But if any team can log a good night against Monte’s defense, it’d be a divisional rival. And of the choices, Carolina has been well-coached for a long time. So if it’s a player execution thing rather than a scheme thing, that’s a pretty good thing for Vols fans to hear overall. While player execution is sometimes the product of coaching, other times it’s simply an off night for a team.

Either way, I think the defense is leading Tampa’s playoff push.

by David Hooper on Dec 9, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

Smith's Long TD Catch

On that play there were in a Cover One not Two. It appeared as if Barber had him in man. The TE rant an out in front of Barber, who then left smith open on the corner route. It did appear as though the TE was covered in man by a LB, so I am pretty sure that was Barber’s mistake on the play. However the safety did seem to be rolling to that side early in the play probably cheating towards Smith with Tampa playing some sort of combo coverage.

Announcers seem to insinuate that Tampa plays the same defense every down. From what I have seen they do not use the “Tampa-2” near as much as they used to. According to Jaworski in this articleTampa only uses it 20% percent of the time this season. Kiffen is like any other coordinator he is going to call many different defenses it is just that the cover two with MLB getting a deep drop is his basic coverage scheme.

by Vol Navy on Dec 9, 2008 10:49 AM EST reply actions

Game Theory.

Because Tampa 2 gets so much press – with cause – teams that haven’t studied a lot of game tape will prepare expecting a Tampa 2 base scheme. Based on past seasons, that may be a correct assessment; however, I’d bet dollars to donuts that Tampa – like most NFL teams – scouts themselves to identify any patterns and/or ruts they get into. This season, someone’s probably noted they spent too much time in Tampa-2 base scheme last year, which might have hurt their numbers. This time around, they may be using a modified Cover 1 as a base in most cases, keeping the MLB up and training the CBs to stay with the WRs to – ironically – prevent the deep route.

That being said, I also wouldn’t be surprised if they were using a modified Cover 1 and rolling the safety to Smith’s side; I equate this coverage with the box-and-one you’ll see occasionally in college basketball against, say, a Davidson (or some other team with one obvious, prominent threat).

by Chris Pendley on Dec 9, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

I Agree

Although, I doubt many coaches know what game theory is.

by Vol Navy on Dec 9, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

If they did, THEY WOULDN'T PUNT SO MUCH!!!

Thank you. I feel better now.

by David Hooper on Dec 9, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

But punting is winning!

by Chris Pendley on Dec 9, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Heh.

I will always stand by the assertion that punting on 4th and 3 from the opponent’s 40 while trailing by 2 scores in the 4th quarter is conceding defeat.

I really appreciated the number of times Leach went for 4th downs against Oklahoma. Because they didn’t work, the final score was worse for them (short field and all that), but their odds were better at maintaining possession than they were at stopping Oklahoma’s offense anyhow. They played risk/reward and lost, but at least they played. Their chances were better, even if the results were worse.

by David Hooper on Dec 9, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Pretty much

I think compared to most coaches, Leach is smart enough to figure out how many yards-per-play he’s going to get as a probabilistic distribution. If he figures he can complete a pass for 3+ yards 65% of the time, then it makes inherent sense to go for it, especially if he only feels the other team would score on, say, 60% of the possessions where he doesn’t make it (so they’d score ~20% of the time when he failed a fourth-down conversion) – but there’s also no guarantee that they wouldn’t have scored on their next possession anyway. Going for it makes sense given how he approaches the game.

On the other hand, there are way too many super-conservative coaches out there who’d punt from there (or worse, the opponents’ 35 on a 4th and 2), so your point stands.

by Chris Pendley on Dec 9, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

This study should be mandatory reading for all coaches. While I would not go for it on fourth down as often as is recommended by the math (psychological factors, game getting out of hand quickly, etc.), there are very few coaches aggressive enough on fourth down. It seems that many coaches seem to overvalue their punter’s ability. Take a Fourth and four from the opponent’s forty as an example. I would guess that the average field position for the receiving team is probably around the 15 yard line (this could be completely wrong, but I figure with touchbacks and returns this should be close). Coaches seem to think that those 25 yards are worth way more than they actually are.

by Vol Navy on Dec 9, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

I'd bet more do than you think.

I mean, it’s basically “hit ‘em where they’re not expecting”. Constraint plays – your screens, counters, etc. – are designed to punish times when the defense cheats against your base plays (in this case, we’ve reversed it and we’re talking about Kiffin’s Tampa 2, but the same idea applies), and most coaches know about that. Pass against eight-in-the-box is a fairly standard maxim, but that’s also caused by DCs deciding to move up and cheat against the run, in effect willingly taking themselves out of position against a pass and daring the QB to beat them. As we saw this year, it works when the QB can’t do it.

Either way, most coaches at least know of game theory, whether or not they call it that.

by Chris Pendley on Dec 9, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Related comment:

Screen passes on 3rd and 15 don’t count; I see that so often in CFB that it makes my eyes bleed.

by Chris Pendley on Dec 9, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

That is what I meant

I just did not write it out clearly.

by Vol Navy on Dec 9, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

FWIW

It sound like Giles committed to Spurrier. He would have been a nice grab, but I’m not worried about the RB position. My stalking-17/18-year-old-guys radar is more concerned with offensive and defensive linemen than running backs (or even quarterbacks, honestly).

Best of luck to him, except against UT.

by David Hooper on Dec 9, 2008 12:25 PM EST reply actions