Stat comparison: Tennessee Volunteers v. Memphis, I mean, Auburn Tigers

by Joel Hollingsworth on Feb 19, 2008 6:40 AM EST in Tennessee Volunteer Basketball

Again with the disclaimers: stats only describe "stuff that has already happened," they don't generally account for the strength of the opponents against which they have been accumulated (hello, MTSU! (yes, that joke's good twice)), and relying on them to predict future results is hazardous to the future of our nation.

All right, now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Vols-Tigers, Saturday night, 9:00 p.m., No. 1 v. No. 2.

Wait. Oh, yeah. Auburn Tigers, I meant. Tomorrow night, 7:30 p.m.

I was really surprised to find that not only are Tennessee and Memphis neck and neck in the rankings, they're also Nos. 1 and 2 in the all-important RPI.

I'm sorry. Auburn. Tomorrow.

Right. So, one ranking that shows a bit of a disparity is strength of schedule: we're No. 2 (woo!); Memphis is No. 28. They get that No. 2 RPI because they haven't lost to anybody yet, but we've played stronger opponents overall.

Sigh. Blue and Orange, not Blue and White. Got it.

Coach Pearl's and Coach Cal's teams are essentially even in field goal percentage and three-point percentage (they're a bit better at twos, we're slightly better at threes), and turnovers are basically even as well. They have slightly better rebounding numbers, and we have slightly better ball control numbers.

Oh, nevermind. I give up. Charts, for the Auburn game, because charts don't lie:

Stats once again courtesy of StatSheet.com.


Rankings
Conf Standing	1		3
AP Rank	4		0
RPI	0.6857		0.5139
RPI Rank	1		149
SOS	0.6056		0.508
SOS Rank	2		137
Wins & Losses
Overall	23-2	(92.0%)	13-10	(56.5%)
Home	13-0	(100.0%)	7-5	(58.3%)
Away	7-1	(87.5%)	4-4	(50.0%)
Neutral	3-1	(75.0%)	2-1	(66.7%)
Conference	10-1	(90.9%)	3-7	(30.0%)
Top 25	2-1	(66.7%)	1-1	(50.0%)
Blowout (> 19)	8-0	(100.0%)	2-3	(40.0%)
Close (< 6)	6-0	(100.0%)	3-2	(60.0%)
Overtime	0-0	(0.0%)	0-0	(0.0%)
NCAA Tourney	0-0	(0.0%)	0-0	(0.0%)

Yes, that's a lot of orange.

	All Games		Conference Games
					Difference (adjusted for total games played)
Total Games	23	25	10	11	2
Wins	13	23	3	10	10
Losses	10	2	7	1	8
Pct	0.57	0.92	0.3	0.91	0.36
Field Goals Made	603	735	256	311	3.18
Field Goals Attempted	1271	1606	563	698	8.98
Field Goal Percentage	0.47	0.46	0.46	0.45	-0.02
Free Throws Made	271	388	131	160	3.74
Free Throws Attempted	414	605	183	253	6.2
Free Throw Percentage	0.66	0.64	0.72	0.63	-0.01
3pt Field Goals Made	165	235	82	101	2.23
3pt Field Goals Attempted	475	648	231	263	5.27
3pt Field Goal Percentage	0.35	0.36	0.36	0.38	0.02
Points Per Game	71.4	83.7	72.5	80.3	12.3
Rebounds Per Game	35.3	40.2	33.1	43.2	4.9
Offensive Rebounds Per Game	10.3	15	10.1	16.1	4.7
Defensive Rebounds Per Game	22.3	23	19.8	23.9	0.7
Assists Per Game	15.1	19.2	13.9	17.3	4.1
Steals Per Game	8.9	10.3	8.1	8.1	1.4
Turnovers Per Game	14.3	12.9	12.6	13.6	1.4
Blocks Per Game	2.6	3.4	2.4	3.7	0.8
Fouls Per Game	16.3	20.1	16.6	20.9	3.8
Disqualifications	8	1	6	1	7

Um, ditto.

See ya Saturday night. Tomorrow, I mean. Yeah, tomorrow.

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Comments

Joel! Aerobab! Hooper! Volorado!

Road Trip!

Lets go to Memphis!

They have courtside tickets available on StubHub!

We can sit right next to the Big Orange bench!

Check it out and let me know:

http://www.stubhub.com/memphis-tigers-basketball-tickets/?ticket_id=117200196

Joel, I think this would be a great gift to your favorite posters!

Go Vols!

by gramsey712 on Feb 19, 2008 8:53 AM EST reply actions

Well, since you're offering

to pay for those tickets, sure!

;)

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 9:00 AM EST up reply actions

You are absolutely right

That would be a great gift to posters.

Unfortunately, RTT revenue this week is juuuuust a bit short. At the current rate, I could only get one of us a ticket.

In roughly 161 years. Pretty sure the game will be over by then.

Go Vols!

by Joel Hollingsworth on Feb 19, 2008 9:07 AM EST up reply actions

Question

On fouls per game, Auburn has almost 4 fewer than UT, yet you have it marked as in our favor (orange in the last column). Shouldn't this be the other way?

Other than that, we love us some orange, don't we? The only thing notable I see is Auburn's improvement in free throws. In all their games, they're 66%. In conference games, they're 72%. Since the conference games are the recent games, that shows a substantial and recent improvement. They probably have a bit more of an edge than 1% on us there.

It's full of stars! ... er ... orange!

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 9:08 AM EST reply actions

I've struggled with that

I came to the conclusion, though, that fouls are neutral to positive for a team, provided that nobody's getting disqualified. It's an indication of aggressive defense. Yes, it puts the other team on the line, but it also often deprives them of an easy two-point basket. Having zero fouls per game would not be a good thing, right? Having everybody foul out is also not a good thing, but there is a sweet spot, and as far as I know, there's no stat kept for good fouls (denying a dunk) and bad fouls (fouling a three-point shooter or bailing somebody out as the shot clock's winding down).

With such difficulties, I just went with considering it a positive unless DQs become a problem. It really could go either way. What do you think?

Go Vols!

by Joel Hollingsworth on Feb 19, 2008 10:00 AM EST up reply actions

Good point.

I had never looked at it that way.

You'd really have to get involved into the details of the fouls to flesh all that out, and that's way beyond our time to do.

Perhaps a rough metric would work. How about something like fouls per foulout? For example, UT has 502 or 503 fouls on the year. Divide that by 1, and you get 502 or 503. (I don't know the true number because I'm just using your chart rather than trying to look it up.)

Auburn has 374 to 376 fouls total. With 8 foulouts, that gives them 47. So they average 1 foulout every 47 fouls, while UT averages 1 foulout every 500+ fouls. In that sense, even though UT fouls more, they don't lose their players as often. It ignores the other effects of fouls, but would that help?

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

I'd be more than happy to go

if I had the money for a game ticket, the money for a plane ticket, and a place to stay. But I will be in my living room watching every dribble, and listening to Vitale, (hopefully) screaming,

"ARE YOU SERIOUS?! OH, AMERICA, CHRIS LOFTON'S ON FIRE, BABY! SOMEBODY CALL MR. GORE, I THINK WE FOUND THE REASON FOR GLOBAL WARMING!"

...Yeah

And now... the BasketVols!

by Volorado on Feb 19, 2008 9:35 AM EST reply actions

I am fairly sure

that if you had the money for THAT ticket, that the plane and the place to stay would take care of itself!

Go Vols!

by gramsey712 on Feb 19, 2008 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

Aw, $$@#%^$^@%^%^!$%!!!

Vitale? Are you serious?

And I don't swear.

Dang.

...

Vitale?

...

Dang.

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions

Oh c'mon

having Vitale, as annoying as he can be, is a big part of college basketball, like Keith Jackson was in football. You know you have a big game if he is there. Plus, he's a million times better than Billy Packer.

Plus, YOU GET TO QUOTE HIM IN ALL CAPS, BABY!

And now... the BasketVols!

by Volorado on Feb 19, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Billy Packer

I'm better than Billy Packer--that's not saying much.

Go Vols!

by gramsey712 on Feb 19, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions

Vitale knows his stuff.

He can also explain what he knows. He's got that over about 99% of ESPN's announcers. He's also a good guy, and I have no problem with him whatsoever.

But I see the announcers as part of my entertainment, and his voice does not entertain me. It'd be easier for me to watch the game muted. Again, it's nothing personal - his foundation is a great thing, for example. It's just that I really don't care who an announcer is; I care what the announcer says.

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

Going to the AUBURN game?

Hooper (and anybody else who might be interested):

Interested in hitting up the TBA tomorrow night? I've received clearance from The Boss!

by Aerobab on Feb 19, 2008 10:47 AM EST reply actions

That's a definite maybe.

I'll have to check with my wife, too. I'm going to initially say that it should work out, though.

If so, I'll grab a (free) student ticket and try to work my way over to where you're sitting. I'm cheap that way. Also, if it works, I'll email you my phone number (if I haven't already) so we can find each other easily. Somehow, I don't think saying "I'm the guy in orange" will help much.

Cool idea, though.

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

Now that's a definite definite.

I'll email my phone number to you.

I have a class from 5 to 6:30, so I'll just run over and get my student ticket immediately afterward. When you get to the arena, give me a call and we'll find each other.

I'm assuming there will be a few extra seats here and there so I can leave the student section and find you. It's worked that way for other students pretty consistently.

If anybody else is interested in meeting up, we'll work out a way to coordinate so we can all find each other. Perhaps this could be an impromptu meeting prior to the Orange & White game. It's also a chance to see the #2 Vols in action for the first time in like, ever.

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

Thinking about it,

I think the Auburn game is more important for the team than the Memphis game. Sure, a Memphis win would be huge, but losing to Auburn would cost more in conference standings and in voters' eyes than a Memphis loss. There may be more to gain from a Memphis win, but there's more to lose from an Auburn loss, and I think that's probably more important at the moment.

Since we're obviously in the 65, now it's a matter of seeding. Dropping to a 2 (or even 3) is not too painful.

by David Hooper on Feb 19, 2008 2:49 PM EST reply actions

It's Tricky

You've got the Game of the Year, the only 1 vs 2 matchup college B-ball will see this season (probably), and it's sandwiched between 2 conference games. Honestly, I'd rather beat Auburn and Vandy and lose to Memphis, then lose to both, but beat Memphis. The Vols just need to focus on the SEC and winning the SEC tournament and let the chips fall where they may.

Auburn would scare me if they had any sort of star player or history of success, and were just having a down year a la Kentucky or Florida or LSU. But Auburn is always bad and Sir Charles Barkley isn't coming back anytime soon.

I am concerned about the @Vandy 3 days after the showdown in Memphis. Vandy is great at home and if we have a letdown, they'll pound us.

All that said, I'm pumped for Saturday. All of the pressure is on Memphis. They have the weak conference schedule and these non-conference showdowns are important to them. Plus, they are number 1, at home, and expected to win. If we lose, it doesn't affect anything besides our ranking for the moment. A win, and we're the #1 team in the land. Awesome!

And now... the BasketVols!

by Volorado on Feb 19, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions