TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS V. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS: THE STATS SAY VOLS, THE REST SAYS CARDS

Stats yet again courtesy of StatSheet.com. The usual caveats apply. Analysis with actual words below.

Rankings
Conf Standing	1		2
AP Rank	5		13
RPI	0.6759		0.6223
RPI Rank	1		13
SOS	0.6044		0.5844
SOS Rank	1		6
Wins & Losses
Overall	30-4	(88.2%)	25-8	(75.8%)
Home	16-0	(100.0%)	15-2	(88.2%)
Away	10-2	(83.3%)	8-3	(72.7%)
Neutral	4-2	(66.7%)	2-3	(40.0%)
Conference	14-2	(87.5%)	14-4	(77.8%)
Top 25	3-2	(60.0%)	4-1	(80.0%)
Blowout (> 19)	8-0	(100.0%)	9-0	(100.0%)
Close (< 6)	8-1	(88.8%)	4-4	(50.0%)
Overtime	0-0	(0.0%)	0-0	(0.0%)
NCAA Tourney	0-0	(0.0%)	0-0	(0.0%)
Scoring
Points	2810	(4)	2381	(87)
Points Per Game	82.6	(5)	72.2	(112)
Shooting
FG Made	990	(8)	845	(71)
FG Attempts	2143	(6)	1852	(89)
FG Pct	46.2	(65)	45.6	(91)
FT Made	528	(36)	438	(172)
FT Attempts	802	(17)	673	(124)
FT Pct	65.8	(275)	65.1	(291)
3pt FG Made	302	(12)	253	(60)
3pt FG Attempts	836	(8)	728	(39)
3pt FG Pct	36.1	(122)	34.8	(178)
Rebounds
Rebounds	1362	(33)	1312	(58)
Rebounds Per Game	40.1	(77)	39.8	(85)
Off Rebounds	477	(12)	381	(113)
Off Rebs Per Game	14.0	(21)	11.5	(162)
Def Rebounds	807	(63)	854	(31)
Def Rebs Per Game	23.7	(126)	25.9	(30)
Assists, Steals, & Blocks
Assists	613	(2)	489	(63)
Assists Per Game	18.0	(6)	14.8	(72)
Steals	318	(7)	269	(39)
Steals Per Game	9.4	(10)	8.2	(56)
Blocks	115	(110)	163	(26)
Blocks Per Game	3.4	(130)	4.9	(32)
Turnovers & Fouls
Turnovers	437	(208)	440	(195)
Turnovers Per Game	12.9	(276)	13.3	(250)
Fouls	696	(11)	599	(133)
Fouls Per Game	20.5	(45)	18.2	(193)

	All Games		Conference Games
					Difference (adjusted for total games played)
Total Games	33	34	18	16	1
Wins	25	30	14	14	5
Losses	8	4	4	2	4
Pct	0.76	0.88	0.78	0.88	0.12
Field Goals Made	845	990	460	455	119.39
Field Goals Attempted	1852	2143	993	1009	234.88
Field Goal Percentage	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.45	0.01
Free Throws Made	438	528	238	234	76.73
Free Throws Attempted	673	802	365	356	108.61
Free Throw Percentage	0.65	0.66	0.65	0.66	0.01
3pt Field Goals Made	253	302	124	138	41.33
3pt Field Goals Attempted	728	836	370	366	85.94
3pt Field Goal Percentage	0.35	0.36	0.34	0.38	0.01
Points	2381	2810	1282	1282	356.85
Points Per Game	72.2	82.6	71.2	80.1	10.4
Rebounds	1312	1362	685	683	10.24
Rebounds Per Game	39.8	40.1	38.1	42.7	0.3
Offensive Rebounds	381	477	185	242	84.45
Offensive Rebounds Per Game	11.5	14	10.3	15.1	2.5
Defensive Rebounds	854	807	466	395	-72.88
Defensive Rebounds Per Game	25.9	23.7	25.9	24.7	-2.2
Assists	489	613	271	257	109.18
Assists Per Game	14.8	18	15.1	16.1	3.2
Steals	269	318	158	121	40.85
Steals Per Game	8.2	9.4	8.8	7.6	1.2
Turnovers	440	437	226	208	16.33
Turnovers Per Game	13.3	12.9	12.6	13	0.4
Blocks	163	115	75	57	-52.94
Blocks Per Game	4.9	3.4	4.2	3.6	-1.5
Fouls	599	696	325	336	78.85
Fouls Per Game	18.2	20.5	18.1	21	2.3
Disqualifications	10	6	4	4	4

I don't know about you, but this was a huge surprise to me. The numbers say the Vols have an edge in every category but defensive rebounds and blocked shots, and all of this was against a (slightly) stronger schedule. The good:

• Tennessee has five more wins and four fewer losses;
• Shooting percentage, free throw percentage, and 3-point percentage are all essentially equal, but the Vols have more attempts in each of those categories despite Pitino's reputation for a killer pace;
• Tennessee averages a full ten points more per game than does Louisville;
• Total rebounds are about even, with Tennessee averaging slightly more of the offensive variety and the Cards averaging a couple more of the defensive variety; and
• The Vols have a slight edge in ball control stats.

But here's the thing. The margins on those statistical categories are all pretty slim, with the only notable exception being total points per game. Also, we're utilizing a point guard getting only his second college career start. Oh, and Chris Lofton's in the dreaded walking boot.

And, of course, there's this:

We almost let Butler sneak into the lead at just the wrong time on Sunday. Louisville had no such problem with Oklahoma. Perhaps that could cut either way, but I'm wary of sharp edges regardless.

And that big black stormcloud churning ominously toward us? KenPom's pythag bracket, which puts Louisville's chance of winning at 55.91% and Tennessee's at 44.09%. So, you know, ignore this and go with the Total Homers and Wild Bearded Men, who are, after all, in the lead.