The ready, fire, aim method: RTT's BlogPoll balloting for 2008
Burnt Orange Nation is going negative and slinging the mud, telling voters that pre-season polls hate America. He's right, of course, and yet we all do them, don't we? (By the way, if you haven't heard Peter's introduction of Brian on last week's EDSBS Live, you need to hear it. Absolutely hilarious.) The first BlogPoll ballot is due Monday, and I'll have my draft posted here Saturday or Sunday at the latest so y'all can have your input. Brian's posted his thoughts on voting philosophy along with an acknowledgement that no matter what he says, folks are going to do as they please:
There's only so much control you can pretend to have when the most respected college football blogger around thumbs his nose at some of the poll's published guidelines and the funniest one slaps up haphazard ballots 30 minutes after the deadline, usually after IMing me something like "oh crap give me a few minutes."
Still, Brian's stated his preference, and that preference is for each voter to focus exclusively on the teams' respective resumes "once you have enough information."
So I have ideas. Ideas that make fellow RTTer hooper and all right-thinking people cringe. Ideas that are destined to elicit pointing and guffaws and "bless his heart" shakings of the noggin. These are they:
The resume method still has a good deal of subjectivity built into it, because how one views a team's accomplishments inevitably differs from another's view. This is the scent that critics are sniffing when they decry computer rankings, which are essentially resume rankers on steroids. They accept data input, crunch numbers, and spit out a result that is always, at the very least, internally consistent, yet they are indeed afflicted at birth by their programmer's own biases. This is not a problem, per se, unless the result is presented as Subjectivity Free. It's not. It's merely consistent, which runs against human tendency in a fallen world.
Even internal consistency has its dark side. Because there is no mid-season correcting of the algorithm (as far as we know), computers are often known to spit out results that only a human can recognize as wonky despite their consistency.
So. The plan. This season, RTT's ballot will be, if I can get it done before crying uncle, informed by computers but regulated by humans. The current plan is to begin the season looking at the numbers but opening the throttle on human intervention. After all, they are last year's numbers, and the only real correction for that flaw -- looking at returning starters -- is grossly insufficient and changing on a daily basis. Just ask Georgia offensive line coach and Florida's synthetic ACL provider.
The computer will be given more and more deference as the season progresses and my ability to mentally juggle the factors decreases and tendency toward inconsistency increases. Still, if the thing grows hair and teeth, I'm leashing it. Also, as far as the subjectivity inherent in the programming goes, I intend to rely heavily on stats that others more attuned to this stuff than I appear to think matter most. Think Phil Steele and SMQ's excellent stats relevancy watch series. Oh, and I'll subject myself to widespread and hearty ridicule by disclosing the formula I'm using. This open source aspect of the thing will be for the purpose of soliciting constructive feedback, improving the system, or at least aspiring toward a consensus among folks who know more about this than I do as to which evils to shun and which to embrace.
I think that this method is in keeping with Brian's encouragement to voters to focus on teams' respective resumes "once [we] have enough information." Keep in mind that RTT's ballot will still be only one of hundreds in the BlogPoll, and it will still be a human ballot. It will just be informed by a computer program. I will keep the kill switch close by.
So here's the current plan.
- Finish the durn program.
- Each Monday or so, I'll post the vomit the program spits out in the form of a drafty draft draft ballot and open it up for discussion and human intervention. Early in the season, plan on Full Override Mode, 25 Override Options, or some such nonsense. Myself and the other front page authors are the Overriders, but we're mostly just representatives of the RTT community, so it's really your opinion that matters. Ballots will be submitted late Tuesday night or first thing Wednesday morning.
- Each week, provided the program doesn't contract rabies, the overrides will decrease.
Note this: Hooper, who knows more about numbers than I'll ever know and whose opinion I value, and I have been talking about this for much of the summer. He's not been overly enthusiastic about my jumping off this cliff, and he has good reason to be concerned. Still, I'm forging ahead into my foolishness because I'm a blogger, and that's what I do.
So that's the plan.
Ready, fire, aim, emphasis on the post-fire aiming thing.
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4 comments
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Qualifier
When Joel mentions my lack of enthusiasm for this, don’t take that as a lack of support. I actually think this is a great idea. The qualms I’ve had over the summer have been more to do with my educational/professional background in engineering; I’m more attuned to finding reasons why things won’t work than why they will. So I’ve been trying to poke holes in the current state of the computer poll thingy to help it grow.
In all honesty, Joel may very likely be onto something with this project. As he’s admitted, there’s a lot of room for feedback. And that’s the whole point of this. Instead of being a one-man or two-man project, he wants to unleash this for the whole community to give feedback on. As he rolls out the rankings and the algorithms, please give your thoughts – both on what works and what doesn’t work. Most importantly, please tell us why you feel the way you do about the polls.
by hooper on
Aug 14, 2008 8:40 AM EDT
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Hmmm...
I had a case of the algorithms once. Took two weeks worth of antibiotics to get over it.
I’m feeling much better now, however…
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lawvol: Gate 21 - Life, the Universe, & the Bounce of the Ball
by lawvol98 on
Aug 16, 2008 1:56 AM EDT
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I for one...
Being a fellow pollster, and an utter imbecile when it comes to prognostication, I for one cannot wait to see this new-fangled program of Joel’s. This is a beautiful idea.
First, it takes out all the human bias that goes into polls by being dispassionate and draconian in applying simple logic and math — two things I’ve never been accused of understanding in any way, shape, or form.
Second, it removes the drudgery and tedium of assembling your ballot. Just like a dishwasher saves you the time of having to actually wash dishes yourself by washing them for you and TiVO saves you the trouble of actually watching television by watching it for you, Joel has now come up with a way to save everyone the bother of actually having to watch football, because the computer can handle it all for you. GENIUS!
Third, if Joel’s program works and spits out its prescient insights by Monday, I can rip them off wholesale and copy them into my ballot before the Wednesday deadline, making me look like I have a brain consult its analysis in assessing my own picks.
I say that this is the way of the future!
All kidding aside, I look forward to seeing what comes of this project…
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lawvol: Gate 21 - Life, the Universe, & the Bounce of the Ball
by lawvol98 on
Aug 16, 2008 1:54 AM EDT
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It’ll likely be like NASCAR, at least at Bristol. You’ll watch it for the crashes. Or not at all.
Go Vols!
by Joel on
Aug 16, 2008 2:09 AM EDT
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