RTT draft BlogPoll ballot

Fourth draft of the Ready, Fire, Aim RTT BlogPoll ballotty thing. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here.

Adjustments for this week:

  • I switched up the way the computer was ranking ties. Rather than have, say, three categories and all teams ranked 1, 2, and 3, I ranked them according to the point at which the new category starts. In other words, if there were only three categories for any particular stat and they were evenly distributed, the teams would be assigned rankings of 1, 41, and 81 instead of 1, 2, and 3. Math guys: any problem with that?
  • The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
  • The initial results included five teams with 2-1 records and two teams with 1-1 records in the top 35. I didn't much care for that result, and so I fiddled with the weighting. In the end, I settled on the following weights for the categories in the immediately preceding bullet: 30, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Doing so bumped Kansas -- the highest ranked team with a loss -- down to 27.

All right, then. The Top 35, according to the computer:

Rank
Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO EXP OPPG TO 3DD AVG R W AVG
1
Southern California
1
43
10
8
35
5
13
49
3
26
28
20.09
112.64
2
TCU
1
43
2
3
18
2
90
22
10
48
3
22.00
118.82
3
South Fla.
1
1
48
17
19
25
22
72
65
13
42
29.55
141.09
4
Kansas St.
1
99
6
32
6
6
11
11
10
18
5
18.64
143.45
5
Utah
1
43
29
15
32
8
29
26
44
43
17
26.09
145.18
6
Florida St.
1
99
38
2
4
1
7
53
2
9
6
20.18
153.55
7
Georgia
1
28
49
12
12
40
19
90
27
31
51
32.73
165.45
8
Oklahoma
1
99
23
14
15
17
2
45
24
5
21
24.18
167.18
9
Nebraska
1
1
47
23
55
65
21
32
25
28
62
32.73
168.00
10
Troy
1
43
1
24
100
7
51
38
14
11
8
27.09
171.09
11
Iowa
1
43
3
27
73
26
39
53
1
47
30
31.18
173.09
12
Penn St.
1
93
20
16
2
23
17
77
19
8
19
26.82
173.18
13
Alabama
1
74
26
1
9
13
60
95
9
55
17
32.73
180.64
14
East Carolina
1
43
31
56
35
29
20
6
33
71
60
35.00
184.64
15
Wisconsin
1
23
50
26
44
51
32
26
23
40
88
36.73
184.82
16
Boise St.
1
43
45
45
16
28
8
114
7
21
31
32.64
190.45
17
Florida
1
99
4
13
19
3
34
116
6
62
15
33.82
191.09
18
LSU
1
99
8
5
40
12
67
77
10
33
14
33.27
203.36
19
Kentucky
1
43
18
7
99
24
93
38
5
83
11
38.36
211.27
20
BYU
1
74
69
37
1
49
3
49
26
10
73
35.64
215.45
21
Connecticut
1
74
7
19
55
15
86
109
8
32
23
39.00
221.55
22
Air Force
1
43
54
43
22
38
115
7
21
53
32
39.00
225.09
23
Auburn
1
43
15
9
108
10
103
84
3
67
1
40.36
225.27
24
Missouri
1
43
61
53
27
90
5
32
56
1
64
39.36
231.73
25
Oklahoma St.
1
99
42
59
12
36
9
38
59
6
6
33.36
232.91
26
Wake Forest
1
1
64
40
74
46
31
113
54
69
22
46.82
241.73
27
Kansas
41
28
16
48
5
33
23
32
31
27
56
30.91
247.00
28
Texas
1
74
43
29
61
66
6
84
17
25
69
43.18
249.82
29
Ball St.
1
74
33
99
3
81
4
53
53
15
81
45.18
260.73
30
Oregon
1
99
25
60
40
52
71
12
50
4
46
41.82
265.82
31
Texas Tech
1
99
39
41
19
76
33
105
37
2
2
41.27
271.82
32
Vanderbilt
1
40
51
38
48
68
73
84
39
93
66
54.64
273.36
33
Northwestern
1
74
32
61
38
53
65
95
19
57
20
46.82
275.09
34
Indiana
1
99
57
4
98
11
57
100
10
20
33
44.55
282.27
35
Colorado
1
99
52
11
34
45
37
114
54
70
83
54.55
282.73

There's still a good deal of weirdness in there, including TCU, Troy, a slew of SEC teams clustered at the bottom rather than the top (!), and other eyebrow cocking results. You can begin to see why, though. Look at TCU's defensive stats. Quite impressive, really, until you consider they came against New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, and Stanford. We'll know just how inflated those stats are in two weeks when they play Oklahoma. Perhaps that strength of schedule should be weighted more heavily. Of course, doing that would likely send South Florida over Southern Cal, and that doesn't seem right, either. Ideas, anyone?

Huh Bullets:

  • Texas appears to be ranked way too high by the MSM polls. Not a terribly strong schedule so far and not particularly stellar numbers, either. 28 is a long way from 7.
  • Ditto Texas Tech. Blinded by offense, are we. The computer is not overly impressed with offense when it comes at the expense of defense.
  • South Florida. The computer's got these guys much higher than the MSM polls currently do. But their numbers are strong, and a peek at the schedule and results to date don't really make me all that skeptical of them. Kansas is the best one loss team, and so the Bulls get credit where its due.
  • Ohio State. Hmm. Where are they? 47th, according to the computer:

    47
    Ohio St.
    41
    74
    19
    39
    59
    14
    75
    59
    33
    89
    80
    52.91
    356.18

    The Buckeyes are the 8th best one-loss team, per the 'puter. I'll rank 'em, but not very high.
  • Oregon. Overranked right now, in my opinion. Will get them into the Top 25, but mostly just to watch them.
  • What about Wake? I'm liking them, but I'm not quite sure why. It's early. Watching.
  • Kansas.See above. The highest-ranked one-loss team. In both numbers and perception, IMO.
  • Utah is underranked, I think. We'll find out more when they play Air Force this week.

I'm beginning to believe that the computer should be subject to complete human override until about halfway through the season and then backed off gradually from there. Shoot, perhaps it will need to be chucked all together. Anyway, here's the RTT draft BlogPoll ballot, based only in part on the above table:

Rank Team Delta
1 Southern Cal 1
2 Oklahoma 1
3 Georgia 2
4 Florida --
5 LSU 2
6 South Florida 11
7 Missouri 2
8 Wisconsin 2
9 East Carolina 9
10 Penn State 1
11 Utah 8
12 Alabama 4
13 Brigham Young 13
14 Texas 2
15 Iowa 11
16 Texas Tech 1
17 Nebraska 9
18 Auburn 10
19 Oregon 6
20 Kansas 13
21 Ohio State 15
22 Wake Forest --
23 Kentucky 3
24 Air Force 2
25 Florida State 1

Dropped Out: Arizona State (#14), Fresno State (#20), California (#21), Illinois (#23), UCLA (#25).

Thoughts?

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