BlogPoll draft ballot: week three

Third draft of the Ready, Fire, Aim RTT BlogPoll ballotty thing. Complete refresher. Objections about computer polls, subjectivity, reliability of numbers, and more.

So on to this week, which has its very own caveats:

  • Sticking with simply ordering every team in every category from first to last and then weighting the categories in order of importance rather than using things like total yards and trying to figure out how to turn oranges into apples.
  • The stats are still very unreliable at this point. Yes, it bears repeating.
  • Everybody is tied for either first, second, or third in the all-important Win/Loss category.
  • Re: strength of schedule -- I decided to use the NCAA's "Past Opposition" figures, as this is supposed to be a resume system -- how good have the teams been, respectively -- as opposed to a forecast of how the teams might be going forward.
  • Since every team has now played at least one game, I re-added Phil Steele's Experience numbers. Okay, so that probably doesn't make sense to you. It was a logistical thing in the spreadsheet. Trust me. Or not.
  • The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. Why these? Because SMQ said so. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average, with multipliers of 1-11 for each successive stat category. Why these weights? Because we're experimenting.
  • Expect Something Approaching Rampant Human Override Without Reproach this week.
  • Mistakes? Oh, yeah. Solve.

All right, then. The Top 35, according to the numbers:

Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO EXP OPPG TO 3DD AVG R W AVG
1
Florida St.
1
3
14
10
23
6
3
53
1
5
14
12.09
81.64
2
Kansas St.
1
3
21
37
14
14
17
11
14
27
12
15.55
100.64
3
Oklahoma
1
3
11
8
37
8
7
59
28
11
3
16.00
111.00
4
Southern California
1
3
20
3
53
11
10
72
10
7
5
17.73
115.55
5
TCU
1
3
5
2
11
3
66
26
4
46
14
16.45
129.36
6
Kansas
1
2
1
51
11
15
25
32
4
30
33
18.64
135.18
7
Arizona
1
3
10
19
9
7
13
77
14
22
22
17.91
135.91
8
South Fla.
1
3
13
18
22
1
26
66
33
17
9
19.00
137.27
9
Air Force
1
1
23
26
48
5
64
7
4
54
4
21.55
142.73
10
Boise St.
1
3
42
57
16
16
4
114
10
2
19
25.82
163.27
11
Iowa
1
3
6
42
53
19
20
53
2
24
41
24.00
167.73
12
Oregon
1
3
52
36
14
33
32
38
41
1
37
26.18
171.73
13
Penn St.
1
3
49
23
2
43
28
38
22
15
52
25.09
175.82
14
LSU
1
3
35
9
82
22
30
77
26
31
2
28.91
189.27
15
East Carolina
1
3
27
74
21
24
23
6
25
61
45
28.18
197.45
16
Arkansas St.
1
1
22
55
115
29
5
32
22
10
52
31.27
199.91
17
Arizona St.
1
1
17
64
46
31
16
45
29
26
50
29.64
206.27
18
Florida
1
3
19
13
23
12
41
116
8
63
6
27.73
207.82
19
Georgia
1
3
46
28
3
45
12
90
48
9
43
29.82
212.82
20
Duke
2
1
30
68
57
37
78
21
33
40
7
34.00
214.64
21
Utah
1
1
48
30
60
23
33
14
58
55
34
32.45
226.73
22
South Carolina
2
1
7
53
72
9
75
26
22
76
19
32.91
231.91
23
Mississippi St.
2
3
8
15
60
17
72
38
39
64
24
31.09
232.45
24
Oklahoma St.
1
3
62
47
19
64
18
45
76
12
41
35.27
236.45
25
Kentucky
1
3
3
12
100
10
95
38
3
85
12
32.91
236.55
26
Ohio St.
1
3
2
17
55
2
63
59
10
59
60
30.09
238.27
27
California
1
2
15
19
80
39
51
90
41
23
17
34.36
238.45
28
Fresno St.
1
3
31
49
109
73
69
12
10
38
30
38.64
241.64
29
Auburn
1
2
37
13
90
28
94
84
8
53
1
37.36
248.09
30
Texas Tech
1
3
57
63
23
95
52
68
54
14
8
39.82
248.82
31
Indiana
1
3
58
6
92
18
55
100
14
29
34
37.27
249.82
32
Louisville
2
3
26
7
82
13
97
18
46
83
9
35.09
251.64
33
Wisconsin
1
1
43
24
5
50
14
77
33
25
89
32.91
253.91
34
Missouri
1
3
80
30
44
98
24
32
62
4
63
40.09
262.73
35
Miami (Fla.)
2
1
74
19
23
21
83
18
40
102
30
37.55
270.73

Human eyebrows cocked:

  • Florida State. A single 69-0 shutout will do that for you. Yeah, but Carolina, of the Western variety rather than the Eastern, so, consider them high fallutin' numbers skeptified.
  • Kansas State. Hmm. Yeah. Well. 69-10 over Montana State and 45-6 over North Texas. I am not impressed by your competition, Mr. Purple Feline.
  • Oklahoma. Half a Hundred wins over both Cincinnati and Chattanooga, with that Chattanooga win basically happening in the first half alone. Cincy is not bad (No. 63 in these here rankin's.)
  • Southern Cal. One win against a Virginia team currently ranked No. 93. Perhaps too high, but what else are you going to do with them, what with the showdown against the Buckeyes coming up, huh?
  • TCU. Stephen F. Austin? Really? Who is he? No.
  • Duke. Fluke? Jury out. A 24-20 loss to Northwestern isn't entirely shameful. Watching.
  • Utah. Actually, not bad. 25-23 over Michigan and 42-21 over UNLV. Possibly top 25, I dunno.
  • Other skeptizoids: Air Force, Boise, Iowa.

So I made some adjustments. Basic rule (with many exceptions) was to mostly ignore the teams about which I and the rest of the pollsters are skeptical and to keep most of the rest in order of the stats. Again, with exceptions. So here's the drafty draft draft:

Rank Team Delta
1 Oklahoma --
2 Southern Cal --
3 LSU 2
4 Florida --
5 Georgia 2
6 Ohio State 3
7 Kansas 7
8 Arizona State 7
9 Auburn 1
10 Missouri 1
11 Oregon 9
12 Wisconsin 6
13 Penn State 1
14 Texas 1
15 Texas Tech 9
16 Alabama 5
17 South Florida --
18 East Carolina 8
19 Utah 4
20 Fresno State 2
21 California 5
22 Wake Forest 3
23 Illinois 3
24 Florida State 2
25 UCLA 1

 

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#8), Brigham Young (#16), South Carolina (#21), Miami (Florida) (#25).

So. Thoughts? Need help for additional adjustments.

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