The final RTT computer BlogPoll ballot for 2008

by Joel on Jan 11, 2009 7:47 AM EST in College Football Comment 11 comments

This here's the RTT Ready, Fire, Aim BlogPoll computer ballot. For a complete refresher on what we're doing, go here, here, here, and here. You can also hit the "blogpoll" tag below the post for a list of all of the related stories.

Rank	Team	AVG R	W AVG
1	Florida	18.00	48.04
2	Texas	26.91	75.50
3	Alabama	28.64	81.91
4	Oklahoma	28.18	82.09
5	Southern California	15.45	88.33
6	Penn St.	17.27	119.49
7	Texas Tech	41.09	123.41
8	Utah	20.27	130.59
9	Ohio St.	29.09	141.15
10	Georgia	33.73	142.27
11	Boise St.	28.73	147.78
12	TCU	18.55	149.50
13	Cincinnati	38.09	159.96
14	Oregon	49.36	189.17
15	Missouri	42.18	196.02
16	Mississippi	22.18	197.60
17	Virginia Tech	45.27	200.45
18	Florida St.	33.73	206.30
19	Oregon St.	31.09	208.20
20	Nebraska	34.36	209.93
21	Oklahoma St.	43.45	213.51
22	Pittsburgh	48.82	217.08
23	West Virginia	39.91	219.53
24	BYU	46.27	220.52
25	Ball St.	46.64	221.38
26	Georgia Tech	52.27	224.39
27	Iowa	31.09	226.14
28	Michigan St.	60.18	228.28
29	California	44.09	231.57
30	Northwestern	42.45	233.74
31	Rice	60.09	240.49
32	Tulsa	46.64	254.72
33	Western Mich.	52.45	262.52
34	Boston College	42.82	325.95
35	LSU	44.55	337.50

Remember, we use this as a starting point for the RTT CBS BlogPoll ballot. Initially the idea was to start the season in total human override mode and then gradually back it off until all of the games had been played at which time we'd let the computer do all of the talking. So the first question to y'all is this: now that we've seen the results, should we do that, or is there something in there that is so wrong that we absolutely need to intervene?

Possibly out of order (blue)

Boise State and TCU

Ranked higher than the major polls (red)

Alabama
Texas Tech
Georgia
Cincinnatti
Missouri
Florida State
Nebraska
Pittsburgh
Ball State

Ranked lower than the major polls (green)

Utah
TCU
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Michigan State

So what do y'all think?

Full chart, links to explanations, and revision to the RTT CBS BlogPoll ballot below the jump.

Prior tweaks to the system: (1) added experience ratings; (2) adjusted the weighting with a "square root of the sum of the squares." Why? I'll you why: I don't know. (3) revised the way tied teams were ranked; (4) began sorting the win/loss category based on losing percentage to hopefully alleviate the penalty to teams with early byes; (5) (a) adjusted the weighting of the win/loss factor and (b) adjusted the strength of schedule factor by subjecting the NCAA past opposition figures to a strength of conference rating. Conferences were divided into two categories: BCS and non-BCS; and (6) modified the Conference Ratings so that there were three categories instead of just BCS and non-BCS. The new categories are (a) the SEC and the Big12, (b) the other BCS conferences, and (c) the non-BCS conferences.

Tweaks for this week:

None.
The categories again: Win/Loss, Strength of Schedule, Pass Efficiency Defense, Rush Defense, 3rd Down Offense, Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Offense, Experience, Opponents Points Per Game, Total Offense, and 3rd Down Defense. The AVG R column is Average Ranking, and the last column is Weighted Average.
The current weighting of the categories: 100, 15, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Then tweaked by the square root of the sum of the squares maneuver.
Current spreadsheet here.

All right, then. The Top 35 with all of the categories, according to the computer:

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	EXP	OPPG	TO	3DD	AVG R	W AVG
1	Florida	2	2	3	15	7	9	4	116	4	15	21	18.00	48.04
2	Texas	3	3	59	3	3	51	2	116	18	9	29	26.91	75.50
3	Alabama	6	14	14	2	43	3	65	95	7	63	3	28.64	81.91
4	Oklahoma	6	1	46	20	9	68	1	59	58	3	39	28.18	82.09
5	Southern California	3	43	1	5	24	2	6	72	1	11	2	15.45	88.33
6	Penn St.	9	46	19	8	6	8	19	38	8	14	15	17.27	119.49
7	Texas Tech	9	7	72	61	4	79	9	68	74	4	65	41.09	123.41
8	Utah	1	70	20	11	26	11	16	14	12	35	7	20.27	130.59
9	Ohio St.	14	25	13	18	34	14	30	59	6	76	31	29.09	141.15
10	Georgia	14	4	47	27	38	22	14	90	59	22	34	33.73	142.27
11	Boise St.	3	75	2	22	30	20	11	114	3	18	18	28.73	147.78
12	TCU	9	67	4	1	8	1	57	26	2	24	5	18.55	149.50
13	Cincinnati	12	48	27	19	103	31	32	59	25	52	11	38.09	159.96
14	Oregon	14	61	57	23	59	82	60	38	78	7	64	49.36	189.17
15	Missouri	19	10	80	31	5	98	10	32	69	8	102	42.18	196.02
16	Mississippi	21	8	49	4	32	19	22	26	20	29	14	22.18	197.60
17	Virginia Tech	19	34	28	14	71	7	99	105	9	103	9	45.27	200.45
18	Florida St.	21	27	26	42	23	15	86	53	26	51	1	33.73	206.30
19	Oregon St.	21	31	32	40	61	23	39	12	47	30	6	31.09	208.20
20	Nebraska	21	19	82	21	18	55	15	32	80	12	23	34.36	209.93
21	Oklahoma St.	21	12	74	52	25	93	5	45	76	6	69	43.45	213.51
22	Pittsburgh	21	30	35	29	94	27	87	77	35	77	25	48.82	217.08
23	West Virginia	21	52	16	41	40	36	28	53	11	59	82	39.91	219.53
24	BYU	14	89	64	60	2	59	13	49	39	16	104	46.27	220.52
25	Ball St.	6	109	38	84	17	69	12	53	29	17	79	46.64	221.38
26	Georgia Tech	21	42	43	24	84	25	92	109	28	50	57	52.27	224.39
27	Iowa	21	62	5	9	49	12	46	53	5	53	27	31.09	226.14
28	Michigan St.	21	39	37	67	98	58	85	68	41	74	74	60.18	228.28
29	California	21	53	6	25	112	26	72	90	23	47	10	44.09	231.57
30	Northwestern	21	66	25	34	21	49	77	59	26	61	28	42.45	233.74
31	Rice	14	90	86	99	10	111	7	32	103	10	99	60.09	240.49
32	Tulsa	12	113	107	37	1	74	3	49	75	1	41	46.64	254.72
33	Western Mich.	21	85	67	62	44	87	23	14	63	28	83	52.45	262.52
34	Boston College	34	37	7	7	86	5	103	68	17	94	13	42.82	325.95
35	LSU	36	17	42	17	66	32	80	77	56	55	12	44.55	337.50

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Comments

yikes

This poll would have almost been excellent…had it been released in early December. My adjustments (with minimal justification, since this is basically all arbitrary anyway, right?) are as follows:

Alabama @ #3 after crapping themselves, twice, consecutively, in massive games? No. Maaaaaybe a #10 slot, if I’m feeling generous.

Oklahoma & USC need to change places. USC was the only team in the nation with a better D than UF. ’Nuff said.

Utah should be ‘rewarded’ for their season and demolishment of Alabama. Slide them up to #2 or #3.

tOSU has no business above the mid-teens. Preferrably in the low-twenties.

I’ll leave it at that, since everything below #10 is a jumbled mess as always.

by Aerobab on Jan 11, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Counterpoints

The Utah question. The Utes may have beaten Alabama and gone undefeated, but if you look at the entire season, their strength of schedule still stinks and their numbers weren’t even that good against that competition. Prior to beating ’Bama, their marquee wins came against TCU and BYU. The rest of the teams were nobodies, including Michigan, who was more of a disappointment than Tennessee this year. I could see moving them up above Penn State, up to six maybe.

Alabama. Georgia and Ohio State both lost three games to Alabama’s two.

Texas Tech and Penn State. I could see this maybe, as these two teams are ahead in losing percentage only because Alabama played in and lost the SEC championship game. But look at Penn State’s schedule and look at Tech’s defensive stats.

Southern Cal. Great defense, much weaker schedule than Alabama.

Oklahoma. Again, it’s the defense. Of Oklahoma in particular and the Big 12 generally. Just not as impressive as Alabama’s. Of course, Oklahoma did play tougher schedule, so I could see swapping the Tide and the Sooners.

Oklahoma and USC. I wouldn’t switch them because of their respective strengths of schedule.

Notwithstanding those counterpoints, I think I’d move Utah up above Penn State and put Alabama just below Utah.

Thoughts?

Go Vols!

by Joel on Jan 11, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Upon further consideration

I may even move Utah above Southern Cal. The Trojans’ schedule wasn’t that much better than the Utes’, and the Utes didn’t lose.

Go Vols!

by Joel on Jan 11, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I still think Utah should be #1...

But I can’t back that up with any of the information you’re using for this poll. But if there’s no other argument that Florida’s 1 and Texas is 2, and you want to move Utah above Alabama, couldn’t the Utes go as high as #3 here? OU and Bama are incredibly even, and Utah beat Bama. OU has a better performance than Utah against a common opponent (TCU), but still, they lost twice.

by Will on Jan 11, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I heard this argument before...

…that going undefeated against ANY schedule is an awfully dog-gone good accomplishment. And besides…it’s not like Utah got by on a fluke, or due to poor officiating or anything “silly”. They straight up whipped Bama’s backside. You know, the old fashioned way.

Jus’sayin.

by Aerobab on Jan 11, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Head-to-Head Police

TCU beat #11 Boise State
Cal beat #28 Michigan State

No bump to Florida State over Virginia Tech though, since the Hokies were ACC Champions and thus should be the highest ranked ACC team.

by Will on Jan 11, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No bump to Florida State over Virginia Tech though, since the Hokies were ACC Champions and thus should be the highest ranked ACC team.

Boy, with that logic, I really wish UT had beaten LSU in Atlanta 2 years ago. :-D

by Hooper on Jan 11, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m all for using head to heads (heads to head?) to break ties. Initially, though, I thought that leaving Boise ahead made sense because they were 12-1 and TCU was 11-2. But yeah, TCU’s losses were to Oklahoma and Utah. And look at their defensive stats. Yeah, I’m moving TCU above Boise.

And Cal over Michigan State, especially because they finished the with same records? Yeah, I’m for that.

And I’ll also buy some of your conference champion reasoning as well while I’m at it? Is there a discount for three?

Go Vols!

by Joel on Jan 11, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why isn't Mississippi higher than TTU?

They beat them soundly. They are a much better team.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 11, 2009 7:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Usc

I believe USC is the best team. All season long we have given the SEC the title of college footballs #1 conference, however their #1 team throughout the season (Bama) lost to Utah. Therefore I know Southern California is the #1. I post articles on another website I think you all will enjoy called playerpress.com check it out.

by jaf0736 on Jan 12, 2009 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs