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Talking points: the Orange Swarm is coming and resistance is futile

  • THE ORANGE SWARM IS COMING. And you thought I was kidding about oversigning coaches. (Chest bump to ChattVol for the observation.) Hamilton hires Lane Kiffin. Lane hires a few run-of-the-mill assistants then shakes Rocky Top by hiring Monte Kiffin, the best defensive coordinator in football, NFL, college, or otherwise. Then he does it again by out-competing and out-spending Les Miles and LSU for the services of Ed Orgeron, the best recruiter in sports period. Monte's and Orgeron's combined salaries will be nearly $300,000 less than what all of Tennessee's assistant coaches made last year. Okay, money mostly gone. Are we done yet? Hardly, because SWARM. Kiffin's now trying to out-compete and out-spend Georgia for the services of Rodney Garner, another A-list recruiter. Garner was to decide yesterday, but it's looking like it's going to be today instead. Is Garner's family willing to move to Tennessee? Is he willing to coach a different position? How much is Georgia willing to pay to keep him? If he comes, can all of these guys get along with each other? I don't know, I don't know, I don't know, and I have no idea, but I do know this: if Kiffin assembles a roster of players like he builds a staff, we're going to have players. Yes, indeed.
  • Yeahbut . . . offense. Monte, Orgeron, and Garner are all defensive coaches. This just in: the defense wasn't broke. The offense? Shambles. Offensive recruits know this, including current commit Je'Ron Stokes who says what we're all thinking: "I heard a lot of great things about [Monte]. The defense will be straight. The biggest problem last year was the offense and I think all of the offensive guys will look at the offense staff members that are brought in." Stokes says he "remains committed to Tennessee," but also that he's "just going to let it all play out."
  • Yeahbut . . . talent. Talent cures all, right? See, e.g., Marlon Brown, who took the first play from scrimmage and turned it into a 71-yard touchdown in the Under Armour All-America Game last night on national television. Brown, 6'5" and 205, proclaims that he is "the best wide receiver in the nation." GVX grants him that distinction inside The Fence at least, and ESPN says he's almost right, the second-best WR nationally. Close enough. Yaw Yaw and Monte say he's their No. 1 target, and the Orange Swarm is currently staked out in the parking lot of Brown's school downing coffee and Red Bull waiting for him to arrive so that they can tell him just that. Resistance is futile, Mr. Brown. Welcome to the collective.
  • In other good news . . . Two of threee Florida prospects in the Under Armour Game last night chose Miami over Florida. Make no mistake, Miami and Florida State being good is good for Tennessee. Anything that might dilute the talent on the Florida Gator roster is good for us.
  • And in still more good news . . . the Fiesta Bowl's tonight. Who do you like? The Texas Longhorns or the Ohio State Buckeyes?

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Who do I like?

Well, I like neither. However, for the Bowl Pick’em I picked the other UT to win…which means tOSU will win if my winning percentage remains consistent.

Aww crap.

by Aerobab on Jan 5, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I want 'em both to lose.

But in absence of that, I want Utah’s path to the AP national championship as clean as possible, so my desire for Texas to lose outweighs my desire for OSU.

That, and I’m really, really tired of the incomplete logic that Longhorns fans use to justify Texas over Oklahoma. Texas grads are supposed to be smarter than that.

by hooper on Jan 5, 2009 6:35 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wel . . .

. . . that’s the only logic they have. Time for another Law School Idiom!

When the law is on your side, pound on the law.

When the facts are on your side, pound on the facts.

When neither is on your side, pound on the podium.

Still, would having Ohio State beat Texas say anything about the relative strength of the SEC and the Big 12?

Still again, as a general rule, my experience is that Texas fans are better than Ohio State fans. Maybe it’s just Peter, but you know.

And still. Again. I picked Texas in the pick ‘em game, so there’s that.

Go Vols!

by Joel on Jan 5, 2009 8:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bowl games are very untrustworthy indicators of conference strength.

Just look at the PAC-10 undefeated bowl season compared to their horrific noncon regular season. The two clearly do not have to correlate. The hitch is that the games are picked with parity in mind; if a bowl has any flexibility in their choice, they’ll pick for the most interesting matchup with the best possibility of in-game attendance. Those two factors equal money for the bowl and the host city.

Also, when a conference gets 2 teams in BCS games, the remaining conference teams get bumped up a slot in their normal order. For example, with Florida and Alabama in BCS games, the bowl that normally gets the SEC #2 team now gets a #3 (or #4 if they prefer). That cascades down the bowls and can slightly affect the overall conference odds of winning most of their bowls.

That’s minor though; most of the bowl game results seem to be dependent on which teams are best prepared and motivated for the game.

by hooper on Jan 5, 2009 9:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So are you saying . . .

. . . that a single data point is meaningless?

And more importantly, if so, does that mean I can’t use it?

;-)

Go Vols!

by Joel on Jan 5, 2009 11:35 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Heh.

Knowing you’re a lawyer, I’ll answer with this:

Single data points do have utility; you just can’t apply statistical thought to them with any sort of reliability.

:-D

by hooper on Jan 6, 2009 12:49 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t need reliability — I just need something to pound on.

;-)

Go Vols!

by Joel on Jan 6, 2009 8:52 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That makes sense.

After all, you’re in the business of swindling juries, not discovering reality.

;-)

by hooper on Jan 6, 2009 10:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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