My preseason idiot picks aren't so stupid after Georgia
by memphispete on Oct 11, 2009 5:52 PM EDT
10 comments
As we approach our open date before the dread Tide roll in, now is a good time to reflect on our preseason prognostications to see how we are doing.
In the preseason, I had us at 8-4. I thought we'd win lose to Florida and Bama soundly. I also thought we'd lose to Georgia and Olde Mississippi. I had us winning the rest.
We came up a yard short in the UCLA game. And, Auburn's turnaround is catching everyone by surprise, so I can live with that. The Georgia game pulled my fat out of the prognosticating fire. So, I am upside down by one game as we hit the midpoint of the season.
Just a pause here to thank Georgia for giving us renewed hope. This column would be completely stupid without the utter destruction of Georgia to hang my hat on. Crompton was In-Cromparable and the defense shut down Georgia better than a box of Immodium.
Speaking of the utter destruction of Georgia - Georgia hasn't seen that much destructive force to its offensive capabilities since some fella named Sherman got a little too happy with the fire-sticks on his way to Savannah. For those who think that's overstatement, let me remind you that Georgia's offense failed to cross the Tennessee 34 at any point in the contest.
Back to the prognostication review
For the second half, I obviously had us going 4-2. To be "right" for the season, we have to end up 5-1 in the second half. That's probably best case, but how insane does it seem if we examine the proposition game-by-game?
Bama - A defense full of absolute stud athletes. I am still mystified how anyone scores a touchdown on them. Actually, I am more mystified how anyone runs more than 50 plays against them on Saturday and doesn't end up in the hospital on Sunday. At #2 on the planet in total defense, they deserve their own paragraph.
But Bama's offense is potentially beatable. The running backs and OL are beasts. But, if we somehow stop them from finding the exact distance from our esophagus to our colon while running the football (#11 Rush offense in the country), and if we keep their QB from lofting it to Julio (because that is the sum total of their pass offense), and if Crompton pulls a Georgia while Hardesty wears his superman outfit for one more game - then maybe. But, probably not. Loss.
South Carolina - I like this one because Spurrier's team has had the same close games that we have but has been luckier with the same good defense and average-ish offense formula that we employ. In other words, they are 5-1 but they aren't a scary-good 5-1. And, I just can't pick Spurrier to beat us. I just can't. It helps that we are at home. Win.
Memphis - Other than The Fluke, Memphis has never beaten Tennessee in football. This year will be no different as Memphis really deserves to be in the WKU category. This is a name-your-score special. Win.
Olde Mississippi - This is the swing game. I had them as a loss in the preseason. But, I am flipping it to a 'W' now. Snead is Cromptoning on them. Bama ran all over the Rebs but had to settle for 5 FG's. Is the Reb defense that good or was Bama's offense just not able to seal the deal? If Snead cromptons and Crompton is Georgia-Incromparable again, we win. You see where this is headed, right? I am back on track to 8-4. Win.
Vandy - Lost to Army in overtime and looked horrible scoring 3 points against Mississippi State. I keep my W.
Kentucky - Has looked "not awful" enough to at least make me pause, before reminding myself that Kentucky hasn't beaten Tennessee since 1984. And, we are improving, right? Win.
That's how I come to the conclusion that we really can make it improve from 3-3 in the first half to 5-1 in the second half and end the year at 8-4. Maybe I'm wrong and we finish 7-5. So, sue me.
We will still end up in the category I like to call, "bowl eligible". That means these freshmen practice for another 3 weeks and Kiffin gets to promote a bowl experience in his first year out on that great recruiting trail.
But more importantly, can't you just see Coach O celebrating a bowl win?
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Heh
Troll Bait Answer. No Bowl. 5-7 or worse
I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS
My preditions
Have already been shot, except for the one I made about Georgia. That one came very satisfyingly true.
On a side note, that new “talking pothole” commercial is pretty freaking funny….
I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS
if we keep their QB from lofting it to Julio (because that is the sum total of their pass offense)
You obviously haven’t been watching our games or even looking at the box scores. McElroy has been spreading the ball around big time. Last year it was the Julio Show, but that’s one of the biggest changes this time around. Julio isn’t even our leading receiver. Maze, Hanks, and McCoy have stepped it up, and we’re also throwing to our TE Colin Peek a lot.
What you're seeing is team spirit. It's like the Holy Spirit, but more powerful.
-Hank Hill
I stand by comments about the Bama passing game. Here's why...
It is true that TE Peek (17 catches) and RB Ingrim (17 catches) are the leading pass catchers in the pro-style dink & dunk offense Saban employs. Let’s face it – a lot of those are glorified runs because they are short pitch-catch or forward pitch-sweeps. We do the same thing in our pro-style offense.
And, I do note that Julio Jones is the leading WR (13 catches) over WR Maze (12 catches) despite not playing in as many games as Maze.
But, I didn’t limit my comment to just WR’s. I still think the passing game rises and falls with Julio Jones. There are three reasons I stand by my statement. First, Julio gets double-teamed and that creates opportunities for Maze, Peek and Ingrim. If Defensive Coordinators don’t focus their main attention on JJ, they are nuts.
Second, Julio Jones hasn’t played in as many games as his peers. He missed the the directional-Texas-state tech community college game with an injury. Assume a normal reception performance in that game against inferior competition and Julio is Bama’s leading pass catcher overall – RB, TE or WR.
Third, it’s clear that Julio is McElroy’s main passing game target whether Julio actually catches the ball or not. For example, in the Ole Miss game, Julio Jones made just 4 catches. That’s the same as Maze for co-leading receiver, but he was thrown to a total of 14 times. Far more than any other receiver. www.rolltide.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2009-2010/um-ua.html#GAME.PLY
That’s a difficult point to make in a sound bite review of my seasonal picks, but please don’t assume we fail to read about or watch your school play. I think the data support my conclusion that Julio is the main guy in the passing offense.
by memphispete on Oct 12, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
but you didn't say that Julio is just our primary target.
You said he was all we had with the implication that shutting him down will severely limit our passing game, and that is clearly far from the truth. If you double cover Jones then McElroy has clearly shown that he can burn you with our other receivers.
The vast majority of Peek’s catches are down field, so I don’t see how you can call them glorified runs. As for the Ole Miss game where McElroy targeted Julio 14 times, that was atypical for our offense this year. As outsidethelines said in our own blog’s impressions from the game
He never looked comfortable in the pocket — though the protection was probably about as good as you could expect against a front four like Ole Miss has — and the way that he forced the ball to Julio Jones at times was almost laughable. He just looked like a completely different quarterback than we’ve seen to date.
Here are the stats for our WR. If you have trouble seeing them it’s here:
http://www.rollbamaroll.com/stats
G Rec Yds Y/G AVG TD
Darius Hanks 5 9 160 32 17.8 1
Marquis Maze 5 12 242 48.4 20.2 2
Mike McCoy 2 8 138 69 17.3 1
Julio Jones 5 13 175 35 13.5 1
Jones’s stats are practically indistinguishable from the other WR. Sure, Julio opens up opportunities for the other WR, but how does that support your point that shutting Julio down gets you anywhere?
What you're seeing is team spirit. It's like the Holy Spirit, but more powerful.
-Hank Hill
One last try and I'll leave you to your strong opinion
I should have cited my source for the receiver catching figures. According to ESPN, Julio didn’t play in the North Texas game, while Peek, Ingrim and Maze played in all 6 games for Bama. That’s the source of the “one extra game” comment. If the stats are similar despite playing in 6 games instead of 5, well I think that’s significant – especially if he’s limited on his return from injury as the Arkansas and Kentucky production would imply. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teams/stats?teamId=333
Back to your questions, you are twisting words, which sounds great in a tit-for-tat soundbite discussion but isn’t really fair.
Example: I was clearly referring to the RB’s passes as being glorified runs in the pro-style offense, not the TE. The pitch-and-catch clearly refers to type of passes most often thrown to the TE. The TE gets the short seam routes, settle into a hole the first line of defenders against zone coverage, baby slants, etc.
I am saying that we have to scheme for Jones – not that we have to double cover him. Monte has proven adept at accounting for a great receiver (Georgia has one) without tipping things to the other receivers thru outright double coverage.
Tennessee hopes to pressure McElroy with effectiveness at least equal to Ole Miss. What did McElroy do when he was pressured for the first time this season? He was uncomfortable. And, his first option was Jones. Fourteen times. Twice as much as anyone else. If UT puts him in that position, that gets us somewhere.
Incidentally, it may be out of character for McElroy because it was the first time he had someone consistently in his face. This year, all you’ve had to do is line up and run it down people’s throats, plus execute a controlled passing game (RB’s/TE’s) with the occasional shot downfield.
Even with McElroy looking uncomfortable and running home to Mama in the passing game (Julio Jones is Mama in this example), Bama clearly destroyed Ole Miss.
Let’s face it. The score should have been much worse than 22-3. Bama settled for 5 FG’s instead of pounding it in for 5 TD’s. Bama’s strength is its running game, as I said. Why they settled for a bunch of fade routes to a double-covered Jones instead of running it down Ole Miss’ throat with Ingrim – I dunno. That’s why Saban gets paid more than anyone else in the SEC.
If we somehow limit the running game (huge challenge) and pressure McElroy while handling Jones as well as we handled Georgia’s beastly receiver, then we have a chance on defense. And, if Crompton plays like he did against Georgia instead of the way he played against Florida, UCLA, etc, then we have a chance on offense. But that’s all we have is a chance.
Because Bama is really, really good. I think they deserve to be #1 and will end the season that way if they beat Tennessee in two weeks.
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