RTT BlogPoll Computer Rankings: BCS Week

by Hooper on Oct 18, 2009 5:17 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

This is the first week of the BCS rankings, where everybody's flawed methods are supposed to magically cancel each other by averaging them together. Ah, well. Here are the rankings as given through the RTT Computer BlogPoll Ranking System Thingy.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	Texas
4	TCU	2
5	Iowa	3
6	Southern Cal	1
7	Boise State	2
8	Penn State	5
9	Cincinnati	1
10	Virginia Tech	6
11	Miami (Florida)	4
12	Oregon
13	Brigham Young	3
14	Utah	4
15	Georgia Tech	5
16	West Virginia	3
17	LSU
18	Nebraska	9
19	Arizona	3
20	Ohio State	9
21	Pittsburgh
22	Idaho
23	South Carolina	2
24	Central Michigan
25	Texas Tech
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: South Florida (#14), Wisconsin (#21), Kansas (#23), Oklahoma (#24).

Comments follow below.

Alabama/Florida Yes, I know that Alabama should probably be on top. The numbers keep insisting on Florida (see below). Why? Because (a) Florida has a massively superior 3rd down offense (3DO) and (b) Florida's Passing Efficiency Offense (PEO) is off the charts. These offset Alabama's Strength of Schedule (SOS) advantage in the computer by a considerable margin, which brings up two discussion points. One: Florida 'cheats' the system by not passing against good defenses and attempting only high-percentage passes otherwise. That, and they have a tendency to pass in the red zone, increasing their TD/Attempt ratio. These combine for the most efficient passing game in the nation, even though it's not the most effective. So here's a project for the offseason: figure out a way to measure effectiveness rather than efficiency. Two: What if Florida's offense really is unbeatable, in the sense of winning games? It's ugly and hideous to watch, but so long as Tebow holds up, they have an amazing knack of converting third downs, even when everybody knows it's going to be a qb sneak up the middle. Just a thought.
Texas I wish the computers would drop them further. They're a terrible first-half team and are lucky to scrape by Oklahoma based on a hideous number of turnovers. I'd have no problem dropping them manually in the final BlogPoll ballot. Talk to me.
Cincinnati They have two problems. First, their SOS is still very low, even after South Florida (though much better). Second, they're an offense-led team, which is more volatile than defense and therefore correlates less to success. The defense is alright, but is lowest-rated of the top 12. Hang in there, though; continued success will see them move upwards.
Arizona Puzzler for me, too. So far, though, they've had respectable losses against Iowa and Washington and a pretty impressive schedule so far.
Idaho? That 6-1 mark is buoying them, as well as a better-than-appears SOS (though still below average). They're in by a knife's edge, though, and will drop precipitously at the next loss. Same with Central Michigan, really.

BlogPoll Raw Data

BONUS: If you want to play around with the weights, here is the data in Excel 2003 form and in Excel 2007 form. I use '07 when I edit the sheet, so that's probably the safer bet if you have the choice, but both seem to work fine for me.

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Florida	1.825	0.215	1.923	1.044	1.586	2.087	2.036	2.116	1.625	2.023	148.081
2	Alabama	1.825	0.861	2.039	1.769	-0.130	2.117	0.403	1.715	0.955	1.456	139.973
3	Texas	1.825	-0.015	1.301	2.398	0.526	1.795	0.415	1.287	1.173	2.571	125.440
4	TCU	1.825	0.024	1.181	1.360	0.578	1.928	1.248	1.425	0.938	1.649	119.943
5	Iowa	1.825	1.187	1.791	0.298	0.422	0.992	0.084	1.241	-0.444	0.322	116.573
6	Southern Cal.	1.154	1.583	1.329	1.669	-1.075	1.564	0.836	1.701	1.135	1.141	114.139
7	Boise St.	1.825	0.349	1.122	0.937	-0.081	1.277	1.899	1.172	0.912	1.170	113.025
8	Penn St.	1.250	-1.071	1.393	1.492	2.320	1.913	0.642	2.110	0.968	0.910	98.467
9	Cincinnati	1.825	-0.368	1.018	0.563	0.777	0.494	1.487	1.334	1.390	0.243	94.611
10	Virginia Tech	0.674	2.201	1.408	-0.222	-0.122	0.614	1.772	0.669	0.050	1.029	93.319
11	Miami (FL)	1.154	1.322	0.386	0.162	0.499	0.808	1.501	0.436	0.149	0.208	87.790
12	Oregon	1.154	1.374	1.657	0.536	-1.289	1.219	-0.274	1.057	-0.295	0.616	84.907
13	BYU	1.250	-0.401	-0.462	0.903	3.339	0.245	1.998	0.176	1.607	-0.937	81.395
14	Utah	1.154	0.222	1.468	0.238	0.470	0.792	0.467	0.827	0.732	1.669	78.118
15	Georgia Tech	1.250	1.712	-1.317	-0.013	1.755	-0.386	1.584	-0.279	0.697	-0.662	77.477
16	West Virginia	1.154	-0.472	0.908	1.383	0.860	1.021	1.069	0.436	0.860	0.663	76.765
17	LSU	1.154	1.057	1.162	0.254	-0.152	0.530	0.352	1.310	-1.429	-0.536	76.058
18	Nebraska	0.482	0.383	1.414	1.009	0.823	1.382	0.457	1.679	0.132	0.446	74.923
19	Arizona	0.482	2.115	-0.109	0.761	0.522	0.370	0.437	-0.279	1.158	-0.632	71.358
20	Ohio St.	0.674	0.437	1.206	1.207	-0.181	1.157	-0.154	1.379	-0.802	0.269	63.736
21	Pittsburgh	1.250	-0.280	-0.452	0.945	0.514	0.427	1.644	0.748	0.172	0.121	58.794
22	Idaho	1.250	-0.252	-0.991	1.030	2.426	-0.156	1.133	-0.160	0.764	-2.602	57.949
23	South Carolina	0.674	0.911	0.824	-0.183	0.167	1.049	-0.272	0.748	-0.348	0.159	54.662
24	Central Mich.	1.250	-1.092	0.449	0.308	1.067	0.474	1.196	1.122	0.401	0.531	52.292
25	Texas Tech	0.674	-0.306	0.356	0.886	0.447	0.233	1.631	0.590	1.860	-0.132	50.126
26	South Fla.	1.154	-1.825	1.290	0.498	0.212	1.134	1.296	1.449	0.526	1.358	47.640
27	Wisconsin	0.674	0.745	-0.576	0.595	1.041	0.472	0.149	-0.121	0.309	-0.265	47.480
28	Oklahoma	-0.189	0.220	1.102	1.654	-0.469	1.594	0.363	1.978	0.967	0.765	47.453
29	Kansas	1.154	-1.232	-0.098	0.918	0.923	0.139	1.299	0.458	2.197	0.269	45.229
30	Oregon St.	0.482	0.556	-0.187	0.982	0.912	-0.305	0.393	0.136	0.178	0.525	42.435
31	Navy	0.674	-0.356	0.002	0.510	1.261	0.616	0.678	0.234	-0.171	1.462	41.179
32	Oklahoma St.	1.154	-1.075	0.534	0.738	0.201	-0.148	1.252	0.250	0.625	0.945	40.935
33	Tennessee	-0.189	0.635	1.204	0.696	-0.248	1.365	0.025	0.619	0.271	0.828	38.280
34	Notre Dame	0.482	1.424	-0.827	0.093	-0.043	-1.074	1.787	-0.210	1.318	-0.265	37.838
35	California	0.482	1.213	-0.312	0.406	0.030	-0.335	-0.130	0.112	0.549	0.446	37.178
36	Arizona St.	0.482	-0.569	0.837	1.894	-1.048	1.765	-0.870	1.103	-0.129	1.239	36.308
37	Fresno St.	-0.189	1.219	-0.068	0.181	1.324	-0.184	0.663	-0.164	1.463	0.502	35.557
38	Mississippi	0.482	-0.491	1.833	-0.166	-0.291	0.899	-0.213	1.518	-0.205	2.173	35.144
39	Stanford	0.098	1.113	-0.530	0.334	0.565	-0.374	1.070	0.057	0.918	-0.137	32.091
40	Auburn	0.674	0.200	0.906	-0.935	0.270	-0.215	0.413	-0.319	1.527	0.283	31.567
41	North Carolina	0.482	-0.655	1.849	0.643	-1.341	1.933	-0.856	1.356	-1.652	1.160	29.474
42	Michigan St.	0.098	0.549	-0.553	0.952	0.296	0.326	0.911	0.333	0.692	-0.605	29.262
43	Georgia	0.098	1.587	-0.386	0.304	-0.058	-0.182	-0.003	-0.515	-0.738	0.863	26.623
44	Michigan	0.674	-0.582	0.416	0.232	0.334	-0.145	0.235	0.293	0.861	0.541	24.092
45	Clemson	-0.189	0.756	1.291	0.418	-1.027	1.396	-1.289	1.196	-0.863	1.030	23.702
46	Connecticut	0.482	-0.459	-0.193	0.719	0.259	0.695	0.289	0.803	-0.077	0.315	23.685
47	Houston	1.154	-0.459	-0.001	-1.879	1.401	-1.548	1.378	-0.555	3.189	-1.462	21.698
48	Missouri	0.482	-0.358	0.461	0.303	-0.332	0.293	0.260	0.505	0.485	-0.265	20.031
49	Virginia	-0.189	0.493	1.528	0.208	-0.691	1.004	-0.895	0.734	-1.267	1.299	19.456
50	Washington	-0.477	2.554	-1.071	-0.500	1.597	-1.158	-0.065	-0.536	-0.283	-0.011	17.868
51	Air Force	0.098	-1.071	1.324	0.298	0.277	1.453	-0.748	1.675	-0.539	1.498	16.118
52	UCLA	-0.189	1.415	0.908	-0.242	-1.107	0.566	-1.243	0.297	-1.162	0.770	14.191
53	Boston College	0.674	-0.465	0.146	0.537	-1.031	0.418	-0.048	0.452	-0.884	1.258	14.035
54	Wake Forest	0.098	-0.063	-0.295	0.239	0.894	-0.156	1.077	-0.022	0.234	-0.559	13.988
55	Tulsa	0.482	-1.361	0.203	0.670	-0.333	0.693	1.393	0.803	0.300	0.715	13.983
56	La.-Monroe	0.482	-0.860	0.009	1.082	0.328	-0.021	0.255	-0.532	0.303	-0.937	11.617
57	Troy	0.482	0.034	-0.422	0.418	-0.524	-0.473	0.584	-0.555	0.749	0.487	10.927
58	Ohio	0.674	-0.911	1.292	-0.330	-0.662	0.252	-0.239	0.393	-0.700	0.669	10.245
59	Kentucky	-0.189	1.702	0.285	-1.013	-0.181	0.105	-1.269	-0.095	-0.672	-0.102	8.078
60	Arkansas	-0.189	1.742	-1.030	-0.071	-1.846	-0.708	1.092	-0.417	1.025	0.487	1.410
61	Southern Miss.	0.098	-1.249	0.194	0.507	0.341	0.437	0.583	0.176	0.570	0.616	-0.331
62	Kansas St.	0.098	-0.384	-0.216	0.782	-0.698	0.250	0.151	0.017	-0.178	0.377	-1.896
63	East Carolina	0.098	-0.674	-0.346	0.667	0.824	0.040	-0.887	0.116	-0.822	-0.204	-6.609
64	Minnesota	0.098	0.771	-0.248	-0.552	-0.313	-0.636	-0.712	0.096	-1.451	-1.868	-8.237
65	Purdue	-1.053	0.999	0.607	-0.281	0.578	-0.197	-0.062	-0.653	0.453	-0.588	-8.882
66	Northwestern	0.098	-1.654	-0.478	0.569	1.519	0.193	0.319	0.136	0.068	0.328	-9.678
67	Florida St.	-0.861	1.951	-1.757	-0.738	1.148	-1.193	1.041	-0.579	0.851	-0.628	-10.553
68	Marshall	0.098	0.172	0.419	-0.605	-0.161	-0.428	-1.169	0.136	-1.121	-1.302	-10.735
69	Northern Ill.	-0.189	-0.390	-0.269	0.078	0.201	0.045	0.314	0.712	-0.338	-1.066	-10.783
70	Nevada	-0.189	-0.015	-1.689	0.525	1.220	-0.752	0.254	-0.717	1.782	-0.480	-12.007
71	Iowa St.	0.098	-0.666	-0.481	-0.006	0.669	-0.532	-0.654	0.333	0.553	0.297	-13.926
72	Rutgers	0.482	-2.167	-0.054	1.124	-0.454	0.657	-0.470	0.872	-0.451	0.149	-14.408
73	Colorado St.	-0.477	1.277	-0.572	0.138	-1.295	-0.560	0.436	-0.653	-0.494	-2.028	-14.865
74	NC St.	-0.477	-0.726	-0.914	1.027	0.738	0.718	0.296	-0.436	0.237	0.029	-15.662
75	Buffalo	-0.477	-0.896	0.282	-0.199	0.897	0.387	0.556	-0.062	0.264	-0.428	-16.213
76	Temple	0.482	-1.766	-0.186	0.803	-0.656	0.566	-0.433	0.665	-1.191	0.149	-16.400
77	Mississippi St.	-0.477	-0.015	0.041	0.311	-0.518	-0.003	-0.719	-0.002	0.229	0.297	-19.498
78	La.-Lafayette	0.482	-0.965	-0.393	-0.635	0.639	-0.399	-0.668	-0.739	-0.637	-1.100	-20.852
79	Indiana	0.098	-0.452	-0.799	-0.068	-0.244	-0.435	-0.202	-0.298	-0.161	-0.496	-23.588
80	UCF	-0.189	-1.088	-0.776	1.150	0.259	0.172	-0.534	0.389	-1.264	-0.428	-25.253
81	Toledo	0.098	-0.433	-0.010	-1.024	0.030	-1.331	0.769	-1.937	1.413	-1.661	-25.789
82	SMU	-0.189	0.248	0.889	-0.841	-1.609	-0.636	-0.569	-0.924	-0.211	-0.392	-26.239
83	Texas A&M	-0.189	-0.976	-0.462	-0.601	1.109	-0.644	0.479	-1.292	1.744	0.945	-26.522
84	Duke	-0.189	-0.817	-0.436	-0.235	-0.203	-0.071	0.783	-0.441	0.355	-0.417	-26.844
85	Wyoming	0.098	-0.726	0.285	0.000	-0.963	-0.300	-1.455	0.057	-0.845	0.136	-28.475
86	Bowling Green	-0.477	0.086	0.039	-1.445	0.123	-0.511	0.131	-0.693	0.550	1.188	-28.622
87	Baylor	-0.189	-0.573	0.768	-0.964	-0.764	-0.650	-0.165	0.181	-0.167	-1.066	-30.929
88	Louisiana Tech	-0.189	-1.327	0.216	-1.234	0.716	-0.137	-0.088	0.274	-0.138	-0.543	-35.583
89	Western Mich.	-0.477	-0.302	-0.429	-0.968	0.518	-0.813	0.029	-0.398	0.257	0.215	-36.576
90	Hawaii	-0.861	-0.043	-0.528	-1.372	1.500	-0.846	0.764	-0.786	1.150	-2.013	-37.922
91	San Diego St.	-0.861	0.006	-0.078	-0.223	-0.357	0.194	-0.365	-0.532	-0.977	-1.363	-39.480
92	Colorado	-0.861	0.892	-0.972	-0.002	-0.082	-0.672	-1.419	-0.832	-1.142	0.546	-40.560
93	Middle Tenn.	-0.189	-0.560	0.118	-0.796	-1.288	-0.432	-0.963	-0.394	-0.092	0.353	-44.283
94	Louisville	-0.861	0.301	-1.064	-0.414	-0.313	-0.085	-0.290	-0.532	-0.011	-0.657	-44.830
95	Arkansas St.	-1.398	0.263	-1.334	0.709	-0.220	0.029	-0.513	0.329	-0.876	-0.137	-52.069
96	Vanderbilt	-1.053	-1.043	1.452	-0.687	-0.885	0.834	-2.232	0.787	-0.817	0.757	-55.867
97	Syracuse	-0.861	0.103	-1.519	0.990	-1.979	-0.454	-0.075	-0.763	-1.113	-0.052	-58.312
98	Maryland	-1.053	-0.026	-0.709	-0.405	-0.266	-0.371	-0.485	-1.344	-0.706	0.482	-59.025
99	Army	-0.477	-2.068	0.320	0.622	-1.315	1.150	-1.914	0.274	-1.538	-0.102	-60.896
100	North Texas	-1.532	-0.435	0.284	-0.872	-0.272	-0.595	-0.578	-1.592	0.485	0.494	-75.214
101	Illinois	-1.532	0.448	-0.748	-0.891	-0.034	-1.096	-1.187	-0.601	-0.324	-1.392	-76.608
102	Akron	-1.532	-0.151	-0.385	-0.406	-0.546	0.009	-1.402	-0.302	-1.432	-1.385	-78.051
103	Tulane	-0.861	-0.558	-1.647	-1.181	0.544	-0.953	-0.201	-1.615	-0.530	-1.834	-80.021
104	Kent St.	-0.477	-1.758	0.079	-0.173	-2.441	-0.445	-0.962	0.155	-1.121	0.070	-80.548
105	New Mexico St.	-0.477	-1.641	0.088	-1.046	-0.390	-0.152	-2.284	-0.436	-2.210	-0.621	-80.903
106	Miami (OH)	-2.204	1.458	-0.473	-0.755	-0.492	-0.515	-1.612	-1.582	-1.116	-0.776	-81.328
107	UNLV	-1.053	-0.377	-1.848	-1.534	1.471	-1.657	-0.305	-1.542	-0.019	-2.188	-85.055
108	Utah St.	-1.532	-0.121	-0.200	-1.605	-1.248	-1.364	0.651	-1.223	1.109	-0.456	-86.822
109	San Jose St.	-1.532	1.915	-0.802	-2.730	-1.776	-1.694	-0.699	-1.315	-1.577	-0.511	-89.320
110	Memphis	-1.053	-1.346	-0.376	-1.056	-0.616	-0.834	-0.532	-0.734	-0.261	0.560	-89.489
111	Fla. Atlantic	-1.398	0.329	-1.329	-2.143	0.393	-1.767	-0.314	-1.771	0.628	-1.000	-90.854
112	UTEP	-0.861	0.032	-0.799	-1.719	-0.701	-2.290	-1.254	-1.499	-0.779	-1.182	-91.521
113	UAB	-0.861	-0.601	-1.691	-0.170	-0.701	-1.769	-1.425	-1.453	-0.333	-1.376	-94.021
114	Washington St.	-1.532	1.667	-1.306	-1.356	-2.104	-2.235	-1.649	-1.523	-1.876	0.510	-98.884
115	FIU	-1.532	0.316	-0.877	-2.120	-0.608	-2.403	-0.554	-1.615	-0.686	-0.052	-106.320
116	Eastern Mich.	-2.204	-0.388	-0.354	-2.360	-0.089	-0.564	-1.646	-1.453	-1.861	-0.895	-128.643
117	Ball St.	-2.204	-1.066	-1.834	-0.409	-0.616	-0.953	-1.842	-0.891	-1.404	-0.145	-142.877
118	New Mexico	-2.204	-0.205	-1.561	-0.708	-2.460	-1.253	-1.247	-1.914	-1.406	-1.038	-146.229
119	Rice	-2.204	0.420	-1.996	-1.573	-1.186	-1.914	-1.873	-2.905	-1.315	-0.847	-148.996
120	Western Ky.	-2.204	-0.069	-3.014	-3.020	-1.537	-2.180	-1.532	-2.006	-1.409	-2.757	-185.813

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Comments

Woah

TCU’s first complete game sure shot them up the rankings. I’ve been advocating moving them up all season, but I’m not sure their resume really justifies #4. We’ll know more about them after the matchup with BYU. If they win that one, they’re a top 5 team. Right now, I’d have to have them behind Texas, Iowa, and Cincy. Speaking of which, Cincy hasn’t given up more than 20 points all season. How does that mean their defense is only average? They’ve been pretty dominant all year and have an argument for top 5. Also, Iowa should be above Texas. I doubt them and doubt them, but they keep winning, and they’ve actually beaten a top 25 team (unlike Texas). And I approve of BSU dropping to 7.

I think GT is more impressive than BYU and Utah, but they have won some close games over mediocre teams, so that’s arguable. I am surprised with how high Penn State is.

Nebraska ahead of TTech? That seemed pretty decisive.

Also, neat trick by USC losing and gaining two spots.

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 18, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah, there are some oddities in there.

That’s why I posted the spreadsheets. If you can find a systematic flaw that can be fixed via the weights, I’m all ears.

As far as Cincy’s defense; they’ve been good (+0.5 in TD is pretty good), but a lot of the other teams have been much better overall. That with one of the lesser early schedules is hurting their metrics.

Overall, I think that increasing the W/L weight would help a few things. I’ve been seeing that approaching over the last couple of weeks, but I wanted to pass that along to you all first before touching it. And that’s the beauty of the draft system that Brian uses; we have until Tuesday to figure these things out and add in manual overrides where the system fails.

by Hooper on Oct 18, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Penn State over Cincy thing doesn't make much sense to me.

Even if you ascribe to the theory that Cincy’s schedule sucks, Penn State has a pretty weak schedule as well, and beating Minnesota shouldn’t do more for PSU than a win over South Florida (especially since that game was on the road).

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Oct 18, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm fine with USC moving up.

That was a really solid game by them. Losing a competitive game against a #1/#2ish team is nothing to be ashamed of when you’re in the 25ish range. But yeah, odd. I’ll have to double-check and see if the teams around them lost as well.

by Hooper on Oct 18, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think adjusting W/L is the way to go

All it gets you (in the entire top 25) is:

Boise jumps USC (arguable)
Miami jumps VT (WRONG!)
GT jumps Utah (correct, imo)
Pitt and Idaho jump Ohio State and ’Zona (probably bad)
CMU and USF jump Carolina and TTech (probably bad)

And this is with a fairly substantial increase (25 to 40)

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 18, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you amp up PED

Cincy falls to VT (boo!), Miami drops one, and Georgia Tech drops like a stone,

but. . . Pitt, Idaho, CMU, and TTech all drop a fair bit. I wonder whether that’s worth it.

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 18, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lessening 3DO has some interesting effects

I was wondering about it because 3DO favors teams that get 4-5 yards every play over those who can score quickly but can also get into 3rd and long. Knocking it down would pull Bama over Florida, and Penn State would drop like a rock, but VT and Oregon would jump Cincy. BYU would fall big time and LSU would rise. Idaho would fall and Oklahoma would snag a top 25 spot. This was switching it to 3, which I know is dramatic. I feel like some of those results are justified though. Hmmm. I feel like that’s the best option so far, but I don’t know if it’s better than no change.

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 18, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But you can just jack up 3DD to bring LSU back down.

THIRDANDCHAVISTHIRDANDCHAVIS

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Oct 18, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Glad you all enjoyed the spreadsheet.

I kept meaning to put that out there, but I kept tweaking things under the hood.

by Hooper on Oct 19, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can we put TCU on hold for one week?

Because if they really deserve a Top 5 ranking, they’ll earn it on Saturday. And Texas might play poorly again, win or lose.

Rocky Top Talk

by Will on Oct 18, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not that it takes from your point much,

but USC only lost one spot to Iowa; TCU was already ahead of them.

by Hooper on Oct 19, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I appreciate the feedback,

I have a lot of thinking to do over this. Looking through the numbers, there are some oddities that a system like this may not be able to account for. Take Cincinnati, for example. They have a tendency to run out to leads fast and force opponents into passing situations. As a result, they have a lot of interceptions on the year, but an average overall defensive rating. But it’s not just that they’re facing a lot of passes; the opposition is often on the field for a lot more than expected. Fresno State, for example, had 43 minutes of TOP for a total of 84 plays compared to Cincy’s 42. (Yes, 2:1 on plays and Fresno lost 28-20.) Oddly, that was also a game of relatively few passes by Fresno (57 rushes).

In Cincy’s case, defensive fatigue may very legitimately be a factor, although it’s hard to tell.

Regarding TCU: I really don’t have a problem with them up there, personally. They’re playing solid football, especially on defense, and did well in a couple of long distance roadies. (While Virginia is nothing to write home about, their recent win streak is really helping TCU’s cause.) That’s not to say I’d mind them lower either, but I’m fine as is. (In other words: ambivalent.) Honestly, I think they’re the best team in their state.

Penn State is one of those early season headaches. Their schedule is littered with cupcakes, but they’ve steamrolled them as they should. It makes for some difficult scoring. This weekend against Michigan will raise their SOS and probably lower their offense/defense numbers across the board. They could very well win and see their overall score go down. I don’t like them this high either, and I may yet drop them for the final poll.

by Hooper on Oct 19, 2009 12:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs