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SEC Power Poll: Rocky Top Talk Ballot

As is the custom, RTT's ballot for the SEC Power Poll is simply the results of the RTT computer rankings.  The full computer results and discussion follow below the jump, but here are the rankings:

  1. Florida Gators
  2. Alabama Crimson Tide  But the gap has closed considerably.
  3. LSU Tigers
  4. South Carolina Gamecocks
  5. Tennessee Volunteers
  6. Mississippi Rebels
  7. Auburn Tigers
  8. Georgia Bulldogs
  9. Kentucky Wildcats
  10. Arkansas Razorbacks
  11. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
  12. Vanderbilt Commodores

Star-divide

The Raw Numbers:

SEC Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.825 0.215 1.923 1.044 1.586 2.087 2.036 2.116 1.625 2.023 148.081
2 Alabama 1.825 0.861 2.039 1.769 -0.130 2.117 0.403 1.715 0.955 1.456 139.973
3 LSU 1.154 1.057 1.162 0.254 -0.152 0.530 0.352 1.310 -1.429 -0.536 76.058
4 South Carolina 0.674 0.911 0.824 -0.183 0.167 1.049 -0.272 0.748 -0.348 0.159 54.662
5 Tennessee -0.189 0.635 1.204 0.696 -0.248 1.365 0.025 0.619 0.271 0.828 38.280
6 Mississippi 0.482 -0.491 1.833 -0.166 -0.291 0.899 -0.213 1.518 -0.205 2.173 35.144
7 Auburn 0.674 0.200 0.906 -0.935 0.270 -0.215 0.413 -0.319 1.527 0.283 31.567
8 Georgia 0.098 1.587 -0.386 0.304 -0.058 -0.182 -0.003 -0.515 -0.738 0.863 26.623
9 Kentucky -0.189 1.702 0.285 -1.013 -0.181 0.105 -1.269 -0.095 -0.672 -0.102 8.078
10 Arkansas -0.189 1.742 -1.030 -0.071 -1.846 -0.708 1.092 -0.417 1.025 0.487 1.410
11 Mississippi St. -0.477 -0.015 0.041 0.311 -0.518 -0.003 -0.719 -0.002 0.229 0.297 -19.498
12 Vanderbilt -1.053 -1.043 1.452 -0.687 -0.885 0.834 -2.232 0.787 -0.817 0.757 -55.867

 

In visual format:

Sec_power_poll_week_7_medium

Some quick discussion:

  • #1/#2 is so far above and beyond the rest of the NCAA, these two teams merely have to meet in Atlanta.  It's a fun discussion to ask which should be #1 (and I'm not going to suggest that this computer system is infallible), but it's blessedly a fairly moot point, as there are few landmines left on either schedule.  These teams are simply too complete to expect a loss (though we hope to hang one on Alabama, naturally).
  • LSU is very vulnerable.  That #3 spot is up for grabs by any of the #4 - #8 teams if they hit a hot streak on the back stretch.  LSU is there only because of winning schedule, but their on-field performance suffers.
  • Yes, Tennessee at #5.  The only below average mark for Tennessee is third down offense, although passing efficiency is admittedly average.  But the defense still gets great reviews and edges out Mississippi's middling performance against weak opponents.
  • Arkansas improved their stock a long ways, but had a huge deficit.  You just can't go for that long without any defense and not have to claw your way back up.  If their recent defensive prowess holds, they'll shoot up pretty quickly in the next couple of weeks.  Arkansas is an illustration of how this poll does not regard the time at which a game is played; early games are equally weighted in comparison to late games.  While whether this is the best consideration may be debated, I believe it's at least closer to the best solution than the human voters' tendency to ignore early losses almost altogether - especially for the favored 'dynasty' teams.
  • Vanderbilt - finally all alone.  It's quiet at the bottom.  Dark, peaceful, and quiet.  Nice ride while it lasted, though.  They have finally been shown the 'Dore to the bottom for good, I believe.
  • Best Marks:  As always, green highlights indicate the best scores in each category.  Alabama's defense is riding very strong.  If their offense improves much on third downs, they'll extend their drives and really nail home an argument for first.  For now, they're actually measurably below NCAA average on 3rd down (on offense), which may be a key factor in the upcoming game.
  • Worst Marks:  LSU again wins the Third and Chavis Award, which I almost feel bad for pointing out.  But their offensive marks are far more worrisome - well below average, which leaves them vulnerable to some significant losses coming up.  When they and Auburn play, it'll be a meeting of the resistible force and the movable object, as is also observed by Auburn's horrid run defense.

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Georgia
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Arkansas
Kentucky
Auburn
Ole Miss
Miss State
Vanderbilt

by golfballs03 on Oct 20, 2009 6:55 PM EDT reply actions  

No offense, but the green bar rankings are a study in how to screw with perspective.

Seriously, normalize them at zero or something, because the scale is just weird.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Chris Pendley on Oct 20, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I know.

The reason I did that is because Excel gave me headaches with the labels. With them normalized at zero, the names run over the negative bars. Would you find that a better option? It’s a judgment call, so I can go either way.

by David Hooper on Oct 20, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

My thought would be one of two things:

1 – just do away with the names. We can figure out what the order is, since it’s only spelled out twice within the post.
2 – team colors on the individual bars and do away with the names. May require a bit more work?

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Chris Pendley on Oct 20, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll think on those.

The first is a little less likely because I may use those charts in cases where the table itself isn’t spelled out. (I have them for every single conference.) Also, I hate leaving things unlabeled on charts.

The second could work. It’s a little busier and I’ll have to see how it implements in Excel.

by David Hooper on Oct 20, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, after saying the first one I realized it wasn't going to work well.

You could also maybe go with a legend; that’d work for the conference charts, at least. (The Big 10, of course, would be yellow, since the idea of a playoff of players running faster than 4.6 40 scares them.)

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Chris Pendley on Oct 20, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

man....

(The Big 10, of course, would be yellow, since the idea of a playoff or players running faster than 4.6 40 scares them.)

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Chris Pendley on Oct 20, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hoop at home

do you ever sleep !! you da man

I don't give a damm about the whole state of Alabama !!

by bulldurham on Oct 20, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Sorry, dude. The Fulmerizer rests for nobody; Vol fan or otherwise.

[FULMERIZED]

with the way things are shaking up… I kind of need Aubbie to beat LSU don’t I?

that would give us a mulligan game in the SEC, only needing three out of our four last SEC games to get to ATL, wouldn’t it? crap… I don’t know if I can cheer for them… I hadn’t thought about it

Terrence Cody drinks your milkshake!
by Wallacewade04 on Oct 20, 2009 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by David Hooper on Oct 20, 2009 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

You've grown too comfortable with the Cup's language rules, apparently.

Which, by the way, are “don’t be a racist and use decent grammar.”

Anyway, the point of my commenting was to say that I like the idea of using a computerized ranking based on actual measurable data; mainly because it is pretty much impossible to argue with.

by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Oct 21, 2009 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

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