College BlogPoll Ballot: Week 8 Draft

As always, the draft ballot, which is due by Monday morning, is simply the rankings as given by RTT's own computer system.  The final ballot, which is due on Wednesday morning, will be a modified version based on the commentary received on the draft.  So here are the top 25 in the draft.  The full rankings will follow below, along with some brief observations.

Rank Team Delta
1 Florida
2 Alabama
3 Texas
4 TCU 2
5 Iowa 3
6 Penn State 7
7 Boise State 2
8 Southern Cal 1
9 Cincinnati 1
10 Oregon 2
11 Virginia Tech 7
12 Georgia Tech 8
13 Arizona 9
14 LSU 3
15 Pittsburgh
16 Utah 2
17 West Virginia 2
18 Miami (Florida) 3
19 Ohio State 8
20 Brigham Young 4
21 Oklahoma 3
22 South Carolina 3
23 Oklahoma State
24 Mississippi
25 Central Michigan
Last week's ballot
Dropped Out: Nebraska (#9), South Florida (#14), Wisconsin (#21), Kansas (#23).

The big table shows all of the numbers in their grand glory.  If you wish to experiment, here is the data in Excel 2007
form, and in Excel 2003 form.  If you're not one for the numbers, just scroll past them to the comments.

Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.892 0.420 2.013 1.105 0.897 2.178 1.484 1.940 1.457 2.374 146.225
2 Alabama 1.892 0.805 1.908 1.792 -0.171 1.985 0.123 1.768 0.610 1.356 135.925
3 Texas 1.892 -0.002 1.477 2.338 0.678 2.076 0.632 1.464 1.117 2.575 134.382
4 TCU 1.892 0.388 1.172 1.320 0.382 1.887 1.612 1.583 0.940 1.667 129.117
5 Iowa 1.892 1.396 1.701 0.464 0.285 1.031 -0.120 1.300 -0.613 0.371 120.868
6 Penn St. 1.377 -0.479 1.751 1.448 1.975 1.995 0.900 2.115 0.937 1.258 116.479
7 Boise St. 1.892 -0.036 1.336 1.009 -0.409 1.287 2.154 1.325 1.071 1.412 111.137
8 Southern Cal. 1.303 1.473 0.881 1.446 -0.549 1.113 0.817 1.246 1.158 0.892 108.690
9 Cincinnati 1.892 -0.451 1.072 0.563 0.508 0.670 1.915 1.445 1.485 0.041 97.762
10 Oregon 1.303 1.501 1.697 0.543 -1.107 1.020 -0.168 1.028 -0.144 0.471 93.220
11 Virginia Tech 0.714 1.970 1.512 -0.185 -0.110 0.672 1.829 0.691 0.070 1.136 92.937
12 Georgia Tech 1.377 1.494 -0.981 0.349 1.716 0.022 1.539 0.034 0.806 -0.277 88.977
13 Arizona 0.714 1.897 0.302 0.950 0.863 0.716 0.352 -0.002 1.248 0.062 87.980
14 LSU 1.303 0.878 1.283 0.355 -0.110 0.903 0.479 1.424 -1.253 -0.363 84.657
15 Pittsburgh 1.377 -0.045 -0.310 0.930 1.116 0.729 1.766 0.850 0.419 0.307 77.913
16 Utah 1.303 0.253 1.491 -0.128 0.197 0.829 0.472 0.890 0.384 1.422 76.955
17 West Virginia 1.303 -0.471 0.708 1.297 1.005 0.584 0.828 0.393 0.806 0.604 74.488
18 Miami (FL) 0.714 1.458 -0.046 0.368 0.837 0.618 1.454 0.077 0.294 -0.054 73.878
19 Ohio St. 0.861 0.229 1.321 1.159 0.048 1.233 -0.021 1.525 -0.412 0.658 71.803
20 BYU 0.861 0.197 -0.742 0.878 2.861 0.135 1.679 -0.070 1.295 -0.780 68.711
21 Oklahoma 0.124 0.264 1.363 1.671 -0.394 1.574 0.382 1.940 0.772 0.652 60.872
22 South Carolina 0.861 0.512 1.113 -0.123 0.122 1.162 0.015 0.919 -0.176 0.281 60.270
23 Oklahoma St. 1.303 -0.856 0.572 1.003 0.387 0.077 1.679 0.572 0.746 0.902 59.974
24 Mississippi 0.714 -0.239 1.794 0.212 0.232 0.971 0.084 1.464 0.288 2.241 58.245
25 Central Mich. 1.377 -1.325 0.499 0.661 1.094 0.448 1.242 1.248 0.423 0.188 56.373
26 Nebraska 0.124 -0.064 1.453 0.926 0.728 1.547 0.091 1.761 0.095 0.695 53.877
27 Wisconsin 0.714 0.657 -0.565 0.642 1.094 0.525 0.159 -0.102 0.337 -0.277 48.701
28 Navy 0.861 -0.473 0.043 0.508 1.468 0.695 0.703 0.468 -0.225 1.393 48.380
29 Notre Dame 0.714 1.265 -0.549 0.355 -0.171 -0.905 1.616 -0.002 1.122 -0.415 46.908
30 Stanford 0.345 1.015 -0.380 0.369 0.744 -0.165 0.970 0.242 1.065 0.066 43.667
31 Clemson 0.124 1.428 1.028 0.282 -0.726 1.084 -0.782 0.790 -0.664 0.593 43.435
32 Tennessee -0.465 1.163 1.323 0.659 -0.194 1.490 -0.053 0.790 0.165 0.846 41.791
33 California 0.714 0.790 -0.542 0.675 0.017 -0.471 0.369 0.254 0.973 0.495 40.185
34 Oregon St. 0.124 1.212 -0.211 0.606 0.965 -0.418 0.600 -0.220 0.445 0.055 39.223
35 Fresno St. 0.124 0.506 0.205 -0.125 1.252 0.048 0.657 0.295 1.400 1.053 35.313
36 Kansas 0.714 -0.768 -0.146 1.019 0.847 0.202 0.786 0.196 1.781 0.222 35.305
37 Georgia 0.124 1.604 -0.366 0.348 -0.043 -0.153 0.002 -0.498 -0.746 0.955 28.901
38 Idaho 0.861 -0.319 -1.088 -0.042 2.192 -0.765 1.666 -0.920 0.973 -2.721 27.372
39 South Fla. 0.714 -1.205 0.851 0.229 -0.019 0.721 1.065 0.929 0.059 0.386 27.251
40 Michigan St. -0.170 0.786 -0.337 0.890 0.207 0.500 0.763 0.468 0.493 -0.466 26.907
41 Auburn 0.345 0.685 0.706 -0.733 0.122 -0.205 0.227 -0.383 0.986 0.244 26.202
42 Houston 1.303 -0.790 0.017 -1.775 1.613 -1.444 1.322 -0.280 2.890 -0.736 24.849
43 Arizona St. 0.124 -0.105 0.738 1.363 -1.148 1.314 -0.906 0.790 -0.321 0.846 20.955
44 Boston College 0.345 0.334 0.069 0.615 -0.810 0.420 -0.231 0.485 -0.847 1.314 19.705
45 Air Force -0.170 -0.441 1.208 0.421 0.268 1.541 -0.709 1.509 -0.604 1.637 19.630
46 Texas Tech 0.345 -0.678 0.246 0.302 0.232 -0.190 1.499 0.052 2.024 -0.511 18.229
47 Kentucky 0.124 1.295 0.699 -0.737 -0.202 0.075 -1.296 0.156 -0.700 -0.777 17.014
48 Connecticut 0.124 -0.188 -0.047 0.355 0.215 0.574 0.366 0.632 0.268 0.005 14.715
49 Troy 0.714 -0.616 -0.514 0.444 0.153 -0.484 0.703 -0.498 1.506 0.321 13.634
50 La.-Monroe 0.124 -0.436 0.127 0.831 0.911 0.077 -0.308 -0.677 0.286 -0.869 9.033
51 Southern Miss. 0.345 -1.736 0.390 0.760 0.512 0.737 0.825 0.485 0.540 0.421 8.983
52 Kansas St. 0.345 -0.509 0.185 0.965 -0.942 0.500 -0.075 0.346 -0.354 0.533 8.976
53 Wake Forest -0.170 0.384 -0.271 -0.320 0.822 -0.070 0.964 0.190 0.074 -0.914 7.962
54 North Carolina 0.124 -0.516 0.913 0.920 -1.356 1.549 -1.113 1.067 -1.562 1.127 7.881
55 Washington -0.686 2.597 -1.051 -0.745 1.526 -1.146 -0.343 -0.781 -0.198 -0.070 6.992
56 Michigan 0.345 -0.340 0.133 0.172 -0.087 -0.184 -0.372 0.086 0.511 0.625 5.480
57 UCLA -0.465 1.978 0.824 -0.396 -1.533 0.290 -1.517 0.215 -1.441 0.278 4.646
58 Missouri 0.124 -0.122 0.156 0.335 -0.394 0.185 0.002 0.116 -0.077 -0.474 4.257
59 Virginia -0.465 0.882 1.546 -0.512 -0.943 0.702 -1.018 0.453 -1.567 0.989 3.890
60 Iowa St. 0.345 -0.276 -0.186 0.111 0.353 -0.463 -0.700 0.607 0.207 0.293 2.999
61 Florida St. -0.465 1.518 -1.168 -0.922 1.015 -0.971 1.431 -0.538 0.929 -0.389 1.908
62 Temple 0.714 -1.569 0.060 1.042 -0.550 0.640 -0.341 0.591 -1.127 0.275 1.566
63 Texas A&M 0.124 -0.398 -0.505 -0.227 1.401 -0.942 0.565 -1.212 2.033 1.066 -0.925
64 Tulsa 0.124 -1.410 0.402 0.507 -0.363 0.427 1.214 0.632 0.414 0.320 -1.525
65 Northwestern 0.345 -1.834 -0.303 0.566 1.628 0.317 0.162 0.068 0.297 0.164 -2.475
66 East Carolina 0.124 -0.674 -0.324 0.715 0.870 0.077 -0.907 0.136 -0.834 -0.209 -4.510
67 Purdue -0.686 0.446 0.801 -0.323 0.454 -0.073 -0.095 -0.383 0.448 -0.381 -5.195
68 Rutgers 0.714 -2.275 0.189 0.827 -0.469 0.966 -0.449 1.048 -0.507 0.732 -5.963
69 Marshall 0.345 -0.284 0.382 -0.760 0.072 -0.518 -0.801 0.433 -0.833 -0.896 -7.583
70 Nevada 0.124 -0.160 -2.178 0.662 1.306 -0.973 0.465 -1.014 2.332 -0.415 -8.357
71 Ohio 0.345 -1.198 1.129 -0.132 -0.858 0.227 -0.560 0.433 -1.097 0.661 -9.762
72 San Diego St. -0.465 0.088 -0.005 -0.188 0.580 0.205 0.360 -0.519 -0.453 -1.287 -10.505
73 Arkansas -0.465 2.017 -1.165 -0.287 -1.802 -1.079 0.812 -0.459 0.726 -0.054 -11.311
74 Northern Ill. 0.124 -1.021 -0.673 0.609 0.298 0.119 0.229 0.671 -0.579 -0.811 -11.609
75 UCF 0.124 -1.492 -0.470 1.158 0.170 0.366 0.196 0.691 -0.877 -0.246 -12.097
76 Duke 0.124 -1.123 -0.480 0.080 -0.030 0.232 0.880 -0.141 0.376 -0.383 -14.699
77 N.C. St. -0.465 -0.805 -0.920 1.079 0.781 0.780 0.310 -0.419 0.263 0.044 -15.229
78 Minnesota -0.170 1.255 -0.312 -0.823 -0.706 -0.872 -0.864 -0.140 -1.502 -2.011 -18.221
79 Mississippi St. -0.686 0.595 0.272 0.002 -0.814 -0.013 -0.883 -0.070 -0.090 0.743 -19.259
80 Buffalo -0.686 -0.665 0.235 -0.178 0.834 0.065 0.211 -0.209 0.626 -0.607 -23.632
81 Wyoming 0.124 -0.742 0.336 0.040 -0.980 -0.275 -1.492 0.077 -0.857 0.161 -27.137
82 Middle Tenn. 0.124 -1.059 0.182 -0.515 -1.226 -0.092 -0.409 -0.320 0.628 0.548 -31.601
83 Western Mich. -0.170 -0.751 -0.106 -1.000 0.626 -1.080 0.011 -0.452 0.538 0.142 -32.919
84 SMU -0.465 0.576 0.759 -0.757 -2.082 -0.626 -0.533 -1.053 -0.118 -0.777 -33.794
85 Indiana -0.170 -0.655 -0.560 -0.083 -0.103 -0.615 -0.303 -0.330 -0.291 -0.822 -34.685
86 Bowling Green -0.686 0.193 -0.112 -1.581 0.363 -0.538 0.020 -0.591 0.484 0.993 -34.959
87 Colorado St. -0.686 0.893 -1.099 0.360 -1.285 -0.850 0.334 -0.868 -0.478 -2.696 -36.362
88 Baylor -0.465 -0.179 0.308 -0.975 -0.686 -0.763 -0.250 -0.023 -0.371 -1.231 -39.532
89 Toledo -0.170 -0.708 -0.021 -1.069 -0.070 -1.146 0.511 -1.960 1.153 -1.605 -41.505
90 Arkansas St. -0.858 -0.802 -0.812 1.057 -0.412 0.437 -0.456 0.618 -0.579 0.220 -41.937
91 Louisiana Tech -0.465 -1.312 0.326 -1.084 0.410 -0.062 -0.043 0.275 -0.373 -0.070 -42.901
92 Syracuse -0.465 -0.316 -1.480 1.363 -2.082 0.033 -0.041 -0.439 -1.068 0.508 -44.832
93 Louisville -1.055 1.094 -1.694 -0.456 -0.069 -0.317 -0.387 -0.775 -0.255 -0.431 -44.976
94 Colorado -1.055 0.702 -0.725 -0.171 -0.229 -0.388 -1.649 -0.617 -1.338 0.902 -48.791
95 Kent St. -0.170 -1.537 0.374 0.328 -2.181 0.047 -0.802 0.381 -1.009 0.329 -50.446
96 Hawaii -1.055 0.152 -0.966 -1.322 1.104 -1.003 0.338 -1.251 0.857 -1.533 -53.727
97 Maryland -1.202 0.253 -0.845 0.022 -0.250 -0.385 -0.392 -1.042 -0.910 0.307 -54.755
98 Vanderbilt -1.202 -0.526 0.995 -0.505 -0.899 0.628 -2.335 0.884 -0.957 0.751 -56.466
99 La.-Lafayette 0.124 -1.530 -1.009 -0.879 0.572 -0.978 -0.639 -1.153 -0.561 -1.627 -58.304
100 Utah St. -1.055 -0.075 -0.209 -1.276 -1.385 -0.976 0.450 -0.974 0.919 -0.216 -66.869
101 Fla. Atlantic -0.858 -0.276 -1.085 -1.852 0.948 -1.540 0.319 -1.579 1.301 -0.893 -66.921
102 UNLV -0.686 -0.742 -1.791 -1.107 1.899 -1.322 -0.211 -1.215 0.104 -2.139 -67.319
103 Army -0.686 -1.796 0.326 0.615 -1.626 1.134 -2.242 0.207 -1.745 -0.030 -67.808
104 UTEP -0.465 -0.079 -0.716 -1.659 -0.230 -2.178 -1.307 -1.272 -0.497 -1.056 -73.594
105 Illinois -1.644 0.563 -0.636 -0.995 -0.236 -1.015 -1.349 -0.498 -0.412 -1.226 -79.462
106 Memphis -1.055 -0.976 -0.356 -1.028 -0.621 -0.829 -0.534 -0.717 -0.252 0.625 -82.037
107 Miami (OH) -2.233 1.178 -0.403 -0.806 -0.578 -0.233 -1.172 -1.423 -1.083 -0.869 -82.532
108 New Mexico St. -0.686 -1.226 0.051 -1.026 -0.708 -0.220 -2.466 -0.538 -2.196 -0.630 -84.610
109 North Texas -1.644 -0.486 0.012 -0.929 -0.125 -1.331 -0.363 -1.866 0.494 -0.246 -87.943
110 Akron -1.644 -0.366 -0.377 -0.621 -1.001 0.082 -1.164 -0.320 -1.732 -1.104 -89.889
111 Tulane -1.055 -0.522 -1.950 -1.233 0.646 -0.873 -0.449 -1.746 -0.877 -2.081 -90.922
112 UAB -1.055 -0.218 -1.699 -0.089 -1.063 -1.769 -1.186 -1.291 -0.136 -1.554 -92.982
113 San Jose St. -1.546 1.736 -0.802 -2.720 -1.822 -1.720 -0.714 -1.301 -1.615 -0.545 -93.703
114 Washington St. -1.644 1.805 -1.630 -1.692 -1.916 -2.450 -1.112 -1.787 -1.485 0.525 -103.344
115 FIU -1.644 -0.025 -0.806 -2.245 -0.774 -2.284 -0.732 -1.430 -0.988 0.124 -118.048
116 Ball St. -1.718 -1.517 -1.437 -0.357 -0.649 -0.580 -2.094 -0.815 -1.059 -0.019 -129.098
117 Eastern Mich. -2.233 -0.871 0.243 -3.071 -0.191 -0.733 -1.830 -1.330 -1.997 -0.707 -141.802
118 New Mexico -2.233 -0.573 -1.471 -0.803 -2.190 -1.245 -1.006 -1.827 -1.462 -1.664 -150.612
119 Rice -2.233 0.002 -2.459 -1.561 -1.166 -1.937 -1.874 -2.966 -1.387 -0.758 -162.957
120 Western Ky. -2.233 -0.526 -3.123 -2.870 -1.575 -2.614 -1.441 -2.461 -1.560 -2.484 -199.613

 

Observations:

  • The TCU Horned Frogs like the top 5, thank you very much.  I'm not saying I can't be persuaded again, but I'll need a pretty good argument this time.  That was one very dominant performance against a BYU team that is actually quite good.  Going forward, they only have Utah to worry about, as the rest of their schedule is against the bottom half of the MWC.
  • Penn State Nittany Lions at it again.  I'm pretty sure everybody here will want PSU knocked down manually.  Just be sure to include reasons for it - preferably (but not mandatorily) reasons that relate to the numbers.
  • Cincinnati Bearcats.  I want 'em up there, too, especially after a solid game without Tony Pike.  It's still a strength of schedule issue (which, by the way, is slowly eroding the Boise State Bronco's grip).  With the Connecticut Huskies, West Virginia Mountaineers, and Pittsburgh Panthers on the schedule, Cincinnati is set to make a major push late.
  • USC Trojans.  A passing efficiency of 0.817 is very good - especially for having a freshman quarterback.  Somebody tell Charlie Weis that a pro-style offense can indeed be implemented with a new quarterback.  Oh, right, they already did.
  • Dominance Redacted.  The Texas Longhorns finally played a solid game or two, and now they are virtually neck and neck with the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Alabama's the better team, but they've been emphasizing fundamentals over stats, and it's making a difference in the numerics.
  • The Arizona Wildcats are quietly having a great season.  They've played a very respectable slate so far and are looking solid in the process  It's been so long since anybody cared about the Wildcats that we're not used to thinking of them, but there they are.  This is why I like numbers; I probably wouldn't give them the time of day if I was using my own intuition because I haven't heard a thing about them from the press wires.  I wonder if the human voters act the same way.
  • The Florida Gator's Third Down Offense (3DO) has dropped like a stone.  Last week, their score was 1.586.  Now, they're 0.897.  For most of the season, they've been well above 2.  Since Tim Tebow's concussion, their third down conversion rate is nowhere near what it used to be.  I'm guessing that Meyer is still holding Tebow back for the moment in anticipation of Atlanta and the bowl game.  But he's rolling the dice.

Conference Rankings

Here are how the conferences stack up with a straight average of the teams:

Conference_rankings_week_8_medium

The SEC is gaining a little more separation from the rest.  With few nonconference games left, this will probably hold.  The PAC-10 is a very solid second because (a) they have few bad teams, and (b) they have some surprisingly good teams, like Arizona, that the media chooses to completely ignore.  The rest of the BCS conferences are pick-ems, and the Mountain West suffers with several genuinely bad teams dragging down the efforts of TCU, BYU, Utah, and Air Force.  Don't get worked up about the 1-A independents; that's only Navy, Notre Dame, and Army, and Navy is the best of the three.  I just include them for completeness.

Let us not speak of the Sun Belt, ok?

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