Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

SEC Power Poll: Rocky Top Talk Ballot

Powerpoll2009logo_medium

 

As always, our Power Poll ballot is taken directly from the RTT computer rankings for the BlogPoll.

  1. Florida Gators
  2. Alabama Crimson Tide
  3. LSU Tigers
  4. South Carolina Gamecocks
  5. Mississippi Rebels
  6. Tennessee Volunteers
  7. Georgia Bulldogs
  8. Auburn Tigers
  9. Kentucky Wildcats
  10. Arkansas Razorbacks
  11. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
  12. Vanderbilt Commodores

Star-divide

First, the table:

SEC Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.892 0.420 2.013 1.105 0.897 2.178 1.484 1.940 1.457 2.374 146.225
2 Alabama 1.892 0.805 1.908 1.792 -0.171 1.985 0.123 1.768 0.610 1.356 135.925
3 LSU 1.303 0.878 1.283 0.355 -0.110 0.903 0.479 1.424 -1.253 -0.363 84.657
4 South Carolina 0.861 0.512 1.113 -0.123 0.122 1.162 0.015 0.919 -0.176 0.281 60.270
5 Mississippi 0.714 -0.239 1.794 0.212 0.232 0.971 0.084 1.464 0.288 2.241 58.245
6 Tennessee -0.465 1.163 1.323 0.659 -0.194 1.490 -0.053 0.790 0.165 0.846 41.791
7 Georgia 0.124 1.604 -0.366 0.348 -0.043 -0.153 0.002 -0.498 -0.746 0.955 28.901
8 Auburn 0.345 0.685 0.706 -0.733 0.122 -0.205 0.227 -0.383 0.986 0.244 26.202
9 Kentucky 0.124 1.295 0.699 -0.737 -0.202 0.075 -1.296 0.156 -0.700 -0.777 17.014
10 Arkansas -0.465 2.017 -1.165 -0.287 -1.802 -1.079 0.812 -0.459 0.726 -0.054 -11.311
11 Mississippi St. -0.686 0.595 0.272 0.002 -0.814 -0.013 -0.883 -0.070 -0.090 0.743 -19.259
12 Vanderbilt -1.202 -0.526 0.995 -0.505 -0.899 0.628 -2.335 0.884 -0.957 0.751 -56.466

 

As always, the green highlights are the best in each column and the red highlights are the worst.  Since Florida doesn't have Alabama on the schedule and they can't play themselves, they will likely never sniff the 'toughest schedule' mark, but they're close to a clean sweep on everything else.  Some other observations:

  • Teams are settling into niches.  The spread between teams is growing.  The only team with a real opportunity to make wholesale changes in their favor is Tennessee, who plays both of the teams immediately ahead of them.  Win those, and Tennessee shoots up to #4.
  • Somebody tell Arkansas that defense matters.  Seriously.
  • While you're at it, have them look at third downs.  The Hogs are great when it's not an obvious passing down but seem to struggle when it's either obvious or trying to run for 3rd and short.  Boom or bust + bad defense is not a good combination.
  • And the worst schedule to boot.  Poor Vandy.  Poor, poor Vandy.
  • Third and Chavis gets a respite.  Kentucky takes the 'worst 3rd down defense' award for the week.
  • Spurrier/Nutt are close, as are Richt/Chizik.  UGA and AU appear to be on a collision for 7th in the SEC.

And in graphical form, for those who prefer pretty charts to raw numbers:

Sec_scores_week_8_medium

Other thoughts:

The "no Win/Loss" modification that Incipient_Senescence is a pretty neat trick and helps gauge teams without their win/loss records (i.e. purely by on-field performance without regards to end result).  Doing so produces the following grid:

SEC Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.892 0.420 2.013 1.105 0.897 2.178 1.484 1.940 1.457 2.374 127.024
2 Alabama 1.892 0.805 1.908 1.792 -0.171 1.985 0.123 1.768 0.610 1.356 112.126
3 Tennessee -0.465 1.163 1.323 0.659 -0.194 1.490 -0.053 0.790 0.165 0.846 81.214
4 LSU 1.303 0.878 1.283 0.355 -0.110 0.903 0.479 1.424 -1.253 -0.363 64.282
5 Mississippi 0.714 -0.239 1.794 0.212 0.232 0.971 0.084 1.464 0.288 2.241 52.390
6 South Carolina 0.861 0.512 1.113 -0.123 0.122 1.162 0.015 0.919 -0.176 0.281 48.742
7 Georgia 0.124 1.604 -0.366 0.348 -0.043 -0.153 0.002 -0.498 -0.746 0.955 36.258
8 Auburn 0.345 0.685 0.706 -0.733 0.122 -0.205 0.227 -0.383 0.986 0.244 22.487
9 Kentucky 0.124 1.295 0.699 -0.737 -0.202 0.075 -1.296 0.156 -0.700 -0.777 19.064
10 Arkansas -0.465 2.017 -1.165 -0.287 -1.802 -1.079 0.812 -0.459 0.726 -0.054 4.405
11 Mississippi St. -0.686 0.595 0.272 0.002 -0.814 -0.013 -0.883 -0.070 -0.090 0.743 2.775
12 Vanderbilt -1.202 -0.526 0.995 -0.505 -0.899 0.628 -2.335 0.884 -0.957 0.751 -28.019

 

And also in pretty graphic form:

Sec_scores_week_8_-_no_wl_medium

Tennessee is the team whose on-field performance is most above their win/loss record.  South Carolina dips the most because of being passed by Tennessee and losing a sliver of ground to Ole Miss, but that's really inconsequential.  For this, you would expect Tennessee to outperform their remaining competition, assuming everybody plays to their typical level.  But Florida and Alabama are still clearly the best, without or without the wins and losses.

Comment 7 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I'd love to see the no W/L table

Start to resemble the full table after the next three weeks. Gotta start it off with a win over the Gamecocks. Will be tough, but if Kiffin gets the guys up for the game, I’m confident.

Also, hard to argue with much in this power poll. Kentucky and Arkansas may be ranked a little low (both have wins over Auburn), but we’ll see how it plays out, especially for Kentucky (who has games remaining against two of the three teams ranked directly ahead of them. 1-1 there will bump them).

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 26, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions  

If Kentucky played Arkansas on a neutral field and the spread was a pick-em...

…I would bet a substantial amount of money on Arkansas. The fact that Kentucky is ranked ahead of Arky reaffirms my hunch that maybe the defensive stats shouldn’t outweigh the offensive ones.

I know, I know…I need supporting data for my. And supporting data I shall produce. I have just been swamped.

________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.

by kidbourbon on Oct 26, 2009 6:14 PM EDT reply actions  

"I need supporting data for my claim"

________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.

by kidbourbon on Oct 26, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

It depends on which Arkansas shows up.

Kentucky’s at least been a little more consistent.

by David Hooper on Oct 26, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Multiplier Effect?

Is it something related to the multiplier effect that takes Florida’s lead over Bama from just over 10 points to almost 15 when you drop the W/L?

by Watchman on Oct 27, 2009 12:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah.

This thing is based purely on proportions, and having the W/L even at 1.89 tends to converge their scores. Remove that and you remove the convergence.

I don’t know your math level, so forgive me if this is too simplistic, but I like easy analogies. Let’s say you have 6 eggs and I have 3. You have twice as many eggs, so your egg score is twice mine. Now, if we each subtract 1, you have 5 and I have 2. You have 2.5 times as many eggs. That’s what’s happening in these numbers. That ratio is what matters, even though the absolute difference (3) is the same.

by David Hooper on Oct 27, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wait wait wait.

You lost me when you starting talking about butts.

Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 27, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Tennessee Volunteers.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Checkerboard_enzone_small
My Signing Day Experience

Recent FanPosts

Dool-aid_small
When Defense of an Icon Goes Bad
Associated_20press_clayliston_1965_l_small
Wherein Kentucky Basketball Fans Expand Their Vocabulary
Vollyroger_small
Tennessee vs. Northern Illinois baseball series
20050073_detail_small
2010 LSU Game: Is Dooley Secretly A Genius?
20050073_detail_small
Evidence that 2012 should be The Year of the Vol
Checkerboard_enzone_small
State Of The Class: A List Of Tennessee's 2012 Recruits - UPDATED
A_cullen_the_bug_small
Where Do We Go From Here with Stokes?
A_cullen_the_bug_small
Joe Paterno Near Death?
Picture_081_small
Ob-la-di, Ob-la-da

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SHOP THE ROCKY TOP TALK STORE

Gameday Depot University Apparel

Animated Drive Charts

RTT Classics

RTT Classics 2008 Animated BlogPoll2007 Animated BlogPollLOL! Your logo is so scary! Welcome to Rocky Top Talk Tradition! Fiddlin' on the Roof2008 Animated BlogPoll The Season of Which We Do Not Speak Pearlfection Case Study: 2QB Systems and the 2005 Tennessee Volunteers The 2007 College Football Blogger Awards The 2006 College Football Blogger Awards The 20 coolest college football logos The 10 worst college football logos The 29 most boring college football logos 2006 Animated BCS Race 2005 Animated Race to the Rose Bowl

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Oh, look. Kentucky fans got their feelwins hurt.
Softball - #9 Tennessee defeats #1 Arizona State 3-0 in Tempe
#9 Lady Vols softball opens the season in the Kajikawa Classic
Peyton Manning's face is everywhere!!
Potential Alzheimer's treatment with results.
Volunteer baseball TV schedule announced
Feelslike98 Film Room
Your 2012 University of Tennessee Volunteers Recruiting Class
USA Today Pre-season Coach's baseball poll
Cordarrelle Patterson Signs With Tennessee

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

YouTube


Editor-in-Chief

Gameday_depot_hat_guy_190x190__no_drop_shadow__small Joel Hollingsworth

Senior Editor

Gromit_small David Hooper

Associated_20press_clayliston_1965_l_small kidbourbon

Tennessee_logo_small Will Shelton

Tumblr_lx1hpdd3yx1r2a42bo1_250_small Chris Pendley

Mutantenemy_small Incipient_Senescence

Ut_small Brad Shepard

Author

Avatar2_small rustytanton

Vols_dooley_hair_small Getoffmyvols

Pygmy_marmoset_small marmotman

Picture_081_small Joseph Stanley

Jackson_the_mule_avatar_small Jackson the Mule

Img_0171_small RockyTopinKY

6156218740_03c5ca84f5_m_small VolnVA

Top_small _trey_

Small Chien Rouge