College BlogPoll Ballot, The Real First Draft

UPDATE:  If you're interested in seeing the numbers with the increased weight for strength of schedule, take a look here.  That list is the next iteration in this week's draft, and may need a bit more tweaking.  A small bump to the Win/Loss weighting may be warranted, but that's up to you all.  -[Note by Hooper, 10/06/09 7:40 AM EDT ]

Ok, the numbers are finally in.  The moves I anticipated earlier did pretty much happen, as well as a few I didn't notice.  Midmajors appear to have a tough road ahead (mostly), especially if midmajors include "Big East".  Everything is after the jump.

 

More motion than I expected...

  • TCU???  They have numbers that are very considerably above average, with the exception of strength of schedule.  But basically, the undefeated record and the considerably better third down offense offsets their SOS difference with Southern Cal.
  • Kansas and Iowa.  I'd feel better with these reversed, which is easily doable with a tweak to SOS weight.  This may happen, depending on how much it appears to improve things.  More on that below.
  • South Florida, Boise State, Cincinnati would all move down further if SOS is increased.  Virginia Tech would move upward in a big way.
  • Oklahoma ahead of Miami despite a worse W/L record and SOS because their actual on-field metrics are still far and away better.  They're very close, though (see below), so a small SOS bump would reverse that.
  • Georgia Tech is the next one to climb up if SOS is bumped, even though they're behind NC State.  The difference is small and Ga Tech overtakes before either climbs above a current top 25 team.

THE QUESTION TO YOU IS:  SHOULD THE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE BE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY?

Most of the oddness that I see would be fixed by increasing the importance of strength of schedule.  But take a look at the numbers below.  When you read the table, remember that positive numbers mean above average (i.e. better) and negative numbers mean below average (i.e. worse).  If you see a factor that seems to consistently improve the ballot by increasing it or decreasing it, leave a comment.

Oh, and look at this graphical representation to see how closely most of the top 25 teams are rated.

Week_5_score_distribution_medium

Basically, TCU through Virginia Tech are all within a reasonable margin of error of each other.  So don't hesitate to fire away.  I have no compulsion to switch Alabama and Texas, even though they are close, though.

Ok, the numbers (explanation here):

Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD W SUM
1 Florida 1.629 -0.357 2.333 0.999 2.361 2.113 2.063 2.124 2.316 1.358 149.597
2 Alabama 1.629 0.004 1.401 1.623 0.644 1.968 1.472 1.199 1.319 1.496 124.574
3 Texas 1.629 -0.098 1.233 2.001 0.931 1.395 0.901 1.089 2.237 2.347 122.892
4 TCU 1.629 -1.096 0.964 2.007 0.105 1.698 1.428 1.153 0.701 1.330 93.377
5 Southern Cal 0.889 0.611 1.619 1.615 -1.371 1.716 0.200 1.950 0.813 1.168 89.237
6 Kansas 1.629 -0.925 -0.015 1.737 1.438 0.608 1.093 1.315 2.084 1.367 88.578
7 Iowa 1.629 0.581 1.563 0.350 0.380 0.733 -0.213 1.328 -0.262 -0.155 88.359
8 South Fla. 1.629 -1.399 1.423 0.734 0.712 1.341 1.932 1.846 0.546 1.232 86.329
9 Penn St. 0.889 0.016 0.998 1.139 1.990 1.301 0.097 1.561 0.370 0.758 85.545
10 Boise St. 1.629 -1.164 1.430 0.795 0.088 1.175 1.795 1.199 0.951 0.758 82.904
11 LSU 1.629 0.610 1.282 0.469 0.301 0.441 0.469 1.147 -0.900 -0.560 82.296
12 Ohio St. 0.889 0.589 1.255 1.205 0.116 1.501 0.060 1.535 -0.152 0.121 81.915
13 Cincinnati 1.629 -1.033 0.854 0.716 1.233 0.552 1.558 1.276 1.404 -0.110 81.056
14 Virginia Tech 0.889 1.891 1.104 -0.033 0.041 0.162 0.742 0.681 -0.029 0.977 78.140
15 Nebraska 0.704 -0.140 1.248 0.492 0.872 0.996 1.061 2.157 0.960 0.316 72.316
16 Auburn 1.629 -0.432 0.966 -0.337 0.800 0.094 1.298 -0.018 2.104 -0.114 72.312
17 Wisconsin 1.629 0.052 -0.454 0.223 2.001 -0.194 1.063 -0.122 0.854 -0.583 68.073
18 Connecticut 0.704 0.266 0.457 1.544 0.273 1.814 -0.537 1.121 -0.249 1.795 67.437
19 Arizona 0.704 0.978 0.679 0.960 0.051 0.954 -0.119 0.409 0.520 -0.554 66.644
20 Stanford 0.889 0.557 0.119 0.527 1.129 0.392 0.645 0.888 0.489 0.492 64.240
21 West Virginia 0.704 -0.180 0.572 1.109 1.860 0.282 0.957 -0.335 1.357 -0.381 62.433
22 Oklahoma -0.220 0.712 0.740 1.599 -0.083 1.495 0.930 1.930 0.721 0.105 60.388
23 BYU 0.889 0.012 -0.252 0.209 2.462 0.162 1.394 0.215 0.844 -0.989 58.544
24 Miami (FL) 0.704 2.008 -0.468 -0.427 0.496 0.224 1.010 -0.238 -0.136 -0.011 56.202
25 Oregon 0.889 0.674 1.385 0.236 -1.130 0.853 -0.154 0.784 -0.114 0.632 55.628
26 North Carolina St. 0.150 -0.341 -0.011 1.570 1.325 1.707 0.920 0.759 0.341 1.326 53.800
27 Georgia Tech 0.889 0.748 -0.621 0.254 1.062 -0.062 1.499 0.085 0.420 -0.054 52.842
28 UCLA 0.704 0.595 1.451 0.856 -1.225 1.061 -0.730 1.056 -1.228 0.711 48.375
29 Missouri 1.629 -1.876 0.490 0.096 0.598 -0.022 1.696 1.056 1.165 -0.515 43.974
30 Utah 0.704 -0.523 1.432 0.069 -0.384 0.854 -0.040 0.603 0.847 2.601 42.607
31 Wake Forest 0.150 1.284 -0.203 0.161 1.071 -0.139 1.024 0.500 0.458 -0.645 41.856
32 Boston College 0.889 -0.309 0.450 0.817 -0.629 0.865 0.242 1.069 -0.796 1.297 38.831
33 Idaho 0.889 -0.001 -1.092 0.632 1.792 -0.016 0.997 -0.251 0.414 -2.029 38.739
34 South Carolina 0.889 -0.751 0.605 0.527 -0.238 1.320 -0.121 0.888 -0.105 0.153 38.456
35 Mississippi 0.704 -1.306 1.752 0.443 -0.132 1.115 -0.070 1.671 -0.084 1.962 38.363

 

Don't let the decimal points freak you out if you're not a numbers person.  In the W SUM column (the actual blogpoll rankings), everything up to the decimal point is really all you need.

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