Computer Numbers Week 5: Increased Strength of Schedule

by David Hooper on Oct 6, 2009 7:37 AM EDT

These are the computer numbers with the strength of schedule metric increased. This fixed most of the oddness in the ballot this week, but some still remains. I think an increase in the importance of win/loss would help in a lot of cases (bump up Boise St., Cincy, Auburn, BYU; bump down Penn State, Ohio State, Arizona, Nebraska, UConn, Oklahoma, West Virginia) but hurt in a few others (bump up Iowa and South Florida; bump down Miami). If you're up to it, please take a peek across the numbers and see if you think there's a pattern that justifies modifying the weights to a factor. Remember, we can always just go with human overrides if that's warranted.

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	W SUM
1	Florida	1.629	-0.357	2.333	0.999	2.361	2.113	2.063	2.124	2.316	1.358	139.635
2	Alabama	1.629	0.004	1.401	1.623	0.644	1.968	1.472	1.199	1.319	1.496	117.899
3	Texas	1.629	-0.098	1.233	2.001	0.931	1.395	0.901	1.089	2.237	2.347	115.761
4	Southern Cal	0.889	0.611	1.619	1.615	-1.371	1.716	0.200	1.950	0.813	1.168	87.723
5	Iowa	1.629	0.581	1.563	0.350	0.380	0.733	-0.213	1.328	-0.262	-0.155	86.730
6	Virginia Tech	0.889	1.891	1.104	-0.033	0.041	0.162	0.742	0.681	-0.029	0.977	84.106
7	TCU	1.629	-1.096	0.964	2.007	0.105	1.698	1.428	1.153	0.701	1.330	82.462
8	LSU	1.629	0.610	1.282	0.469	0.301	0.441	0.469	1.147	-0.900	-0.560	81.149
9	Penn St.	0.889	0.016	0.998	1.139	1.990	1.301	0.097	1.561	0.370	0.758	81.030
10	Ohio St.	0.889	0.589	1.255	1.205	0.116	1.501	0.060	1.535	-0.152	0.121	80.676
11	Kansas	1.629	-0.925	-0.015	1.737	1.438	0.608	1.093	1.315	2.084	1.367	78.840
12	South Fla.	1.629	-1.399	1.423	0.734	0.712	1.341	1.932	1.846	0.546	1.232	74.165
13	Boise St.	1.629	-1.164	1.430	0.795	0.088	1.175	1.795	1.199	0.951	0.758	72.191
14	Cincinnati	1.629	-1.033	0.854	0.716	1.233	0.552	1.558	1.276	1.404	-0.110	71.145
15	Arizona	0.704	0.978	0.679	0.960	0.051	0.954	-0.119	0.409	0.520	-0.554	68.321
16	Nebraska	0.704	-0.140	1.248	0.492	0.872	0.996	1.061	2.157	0.960	0.316	67.675
17	Auburn	1.629	-0.432	0.966	-0.337	0.800	0.094	1.298	-0.018	2.104	-0.114	66.100
18	Connecticut	0.704	0.266	0.457	1.544	0.273	1.814	-0.537	1.121	-0.249	1.795	65.244
19	Wisconsin	1.629	0.052	-0.454	0.223	2.001	-0.194	1.063	-0.122	0.854	-0.583	64.693
20	Miami (FL)	0.704	2.008	-0.468	-0.427	0.496	0.224	1.010	-0.238	-0.136	-0.011	63.974
21	Stanford	0.889	0.557	0.119	0.527	1.129	0.392	0.645	0.888	0.489	0.492	63.783
22	Oklahoma	-0.220	0.712	0.740	1.599	-0.083	1.495	0.930	1.930	0.721	0.105	60.971
23	West Virginia	0.704	-0.180	0.572	1.109	1.860	0.282	0.957	-0.335	1.357	-0.381	58.107
24	Oregon	0.889	0.674	1.385	0.236	-1.130	0.853	-0.154	0.784	-0.114	0.632	56.259
25	BYU	0.889	0.012	-0.252	0.209	2.462	0.162	1.394	0.215	0.844	-0.989	55.461
26	Georgia Tech	0.889	0.748	-0.621	0.254	1.062	-0.062	1.499	0.085	0.420	-0.054	54.024
27	North Carolina St.	0.150	-0.341	-0.011	1.570	1.325	1.707	0.920	0.759	0.341	1.326	49.074
28	UCLA	0.704	0.595	1.451	0.856	-1.225	1.061	-0.730	1.056	-1.228	0.711	48.972
29	Wake Forest	0.150	1.284	-0.203	0.161	1.071	-0.139	1.024	0.500	0.458	-0.645	46.511
30	Georgia	0.150	1.663	-0.113	0.368	0.116	-0.121	0.703	-0.536	-0.601	0.695	40.992
31	Utah	0.704	-0.523	1.432	0.069	-0.384	0.854	-0.040	0.603	0.847	2.601	37.504
32	Idaho	0.889	-0.001	-1.092	0.632	1.792	-0.016	0.997	-0.251	0.414	-2.029	36.648
33	Boston College	0.889	-0.309	0.450	0.817	-0.629	0.865	0.242	1.069	-0.796	1.297	35.082
34	Notre Dame	0.889	0.252	-0.405	-0.033	0.043	-0.812	1.996	-0.018	1.432	-0.134	34.942
35	Washington	-0.590	3.138	-1.239	-0.883	1.777	-0.907	-0.075	-0.510	-0.007	0.544	34.150

Here's a visual look at the top 25. Note again how close so many teams are to each other.

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Comments

I really can’t find a single stat that can be adjusted to really help us out. Granted, I have class in a couple minutes, so I only did a small case study with USF, Kansas, BSU, and Cincy, who were right in a row.

by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 6, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks again.

I think if I just manually bump Boise and Cincy, most of the weirdness will be gone. Miami is still problematic, though, so maybe they get a bump up too. Oh, and Arizona. For the BlogPoll, they probably ought to go down, though I think the numbers are indicating that people are tending to be biased against them.

by David Hooper on Oct 6, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions