RE: Year 2 -- We're Better Than You Think!

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 8, 2009 5:53 PM EDT

This is in response to a statistical oversight by Team Speed Kills' Year2, in his recent investigation of How Much Is Tennessee's Offense Improving? He points out that Tennessee just ran up a lot of yards against WKU -- horrible competition, in every right, and adjusts Tennessee's offensive output accordingly, coming up with the number that Tennessee is only about 38 yards better on offense than they were last year, as opposed to about 110 yards.

However, I think there's a big flaw in his data collection, because it fails to accommodate for the one game that Tennessee piled up yardage last year: the UAB game. In that game, Tennessee had 548 yards of offense, by far it's best of the season. So, I took out that game from the 2008-2009 season, to see how the stats would compare when the best performances were taken out of the equation.

2008 ADJUSTED STATS (NO UAB)
	YARDS	ATT	AVG/PLAY	AVG/GAME
RUSH	1209	368	3.3	110
PASS	1468	276	5.3	133
TOTAL	2677	644	4.2	243
2009 ADJUSTED STATS (NO WKU)					CHANGE
RUSH	560	144	3.9	140	30
PASS	667	123	5.4	167	33
TOTAL	1227	267	4.6	307	64

As is expected, without the UAB game from last year Tennessee's offense is much better than it was last year, as far as yards-per-game. 64 is a pretty significant difference, if not the difference of 108 yards per game that it was before we took out these performances.However, the lack of difference in YPP did jump out at me: not only are we getting more yardage per play, but we're also getting more plays. Another venture into stats (this time not adjusted for the weakest opponent so far) reveals this:

PLAYS PER GAME:
2008	409	309	718	60
	444	322	766	64
2009	188	155	343	69
	175	145	320	64

That last column is really the only important one: it shows average plays/game for Tennessee & opponents. We're getting 9 more plays per game than last year, so that's pretty awesome. That's reflected in the T.O.P, which is improved from last year thus far, and the cause of it is, not surprisingly, 3rd down conversions.

3RD + 4TH DOWN CONVERSIONS
2008	63	181	35%
	76	200	38%
2009	31	78	40%
	26	76	34%

Our 3rd & 4th down offense is much improved, while our 3rd & 4th down defense is better as well. Count the delta together, and that's a 9% shift in converting the chains. Really, I don't care how you dissect the numbers, the fact is that our offense is playing so, so much better than last year, through these first five games. Now let's prove it by beating Georgia.

Go Vols!

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The problem is

You failed to account for the fact that TSK is the most biased SEC blog out there. Like I said before, I always thought TSK was the Florida blog ‘till the guys talked about Alligator Army before this year’s Florida game.

Nice job though.

Neyland Stadium: Home of the biggest bust in quarterbacking history.
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 8, 2009 5:58 PM EDT reply actions

I understand his point

Or, at least, I hear it a lot. People say that without the WKU game this team is just like last year’s team. Which, isn’t quite true.

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 8, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

A lot of teams look different without their games against really bad teams. There’s nothing special about Tennessee in that regard.

Tennessee’s offense so far has better than it was last year, but it’s not by that significant a margin. It can’t possibly get that much better without a good quarterback, and I don’t know a soul of any allegiance who thinks Crompton fits that description.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Oct 8, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Gator fans have no soul, so he must mean the UT fans who are properly disillusioned

with Crompton.

25% more output is significant in anyone’s book. I’d take 25% more money.

And, bobo properly adjusted out the patsy last year since Year2 adjusted out WKU this year. Gotta have apples to apples, because we hate Florida oranges.

by memphispete on Oct 8, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

I do get that, but you were comparing Tennessee with it’s team last year so I thought I could be a bit more fair ;-). I did like the job you did, I’m not saying it was unfair, I just wanted to see what it’d look like without Tennessee’s worst competition.

And yeah, Crompton ain’t that great.

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 8, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions

You would say somthing like that

by Hook85 on Oct 11, 2009 6:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Go home troll...

Neyland Stadium: Home of the biggest bust in quarterbacking history.
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 11, 2009 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Dont call me a troll...

by Hook85 on Oct 11, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, my bad..

troll

I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 11, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

who is trolling now?

Oh my bad, you think trolling is someone who has a different opinion then you.

by Hook85 on Oct 11, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

there are many synonyms for troll

We can start a list for you, if that’s helpful as you search for your identify and seek to embrace the truth about yourself as a troll. Sometimes, definitions and synonyms are helpful.

Troll – someone who posts on another school’s blog with the intent to stir things up and annoy people rather than to engage in civil discourse about the merits of each school’s team with a degree of honesty to balance out the bias inherent in supporting their own school. You, Hook85, are a troll.

As to synonyms, we’ll keep it simple:
I-D-I-O-T…

others may join as they wish.

by memphispete on Oct 12, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Again calling somone an idiot..

I am the imature troll? but look at all my post, All my comments are nothing offensive, simply sticking up for either A. my coach and team, or B, team speed kills.

I have never resorted to name calling…If alligator army is having a discussion i would expect Tenn fans to chime in. Also I was joking about the whole, I remember the first time we beat UGA, cleary I know it wasnt your first time beating them.

Also if i was the idiot troll that you really believe that I am, then how smart are you to continue to reply back to me? Take a joke, and relax.

by Hook85 on Oct 13, 2009 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions

a discussion that involved tenn.

by Hook85 on Oct 13, 2009 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Go home troll…

by VolBrian on Oct 11, 2009 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 13, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Other synonyms

O-B-T-U-S-E

U-N-W-E-L-C-O-M-E

G-O-O-D-B-Y-E

by memphispete on Oct 13, 2009 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions

You two realize what he's doing, don't you?

He’s slowly maneuvering the argument to make himself look more rational than you two. (E.g. consider the outward appearance of the last few comments.)

But speaking more generally, unless there’s something new to add to this troll/no troll debate, it’s probably about time for both sides to realize there is no middle ground and just let the whole thing go. I’m not moderating right now, but just making a suggestion since I can’t see this progressing beyond its current state.

by David Hooper on Oct 13, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

We were done anyway.

I doubt anyone who looks at the whole body of work from Hook85 will think anything other than “troll” though.

by memphispete on Oct 13, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I’m done with actually responding to his posts other than to just egg him on, but I guess that’s run it’s course as well. He can resume talking to the wall as MP and I are the only ones that ever respond…..

I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 13, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

i know you are but what am i?

by golfballs03 on Oct 13, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Well done, seer into the future and facts

If someone had told you heading into the season that we’d:

have 25% more offensive output per game
that the output would come equally from the run and the pass, and
the defense would hold the other team to the same # of plays

would you have been pleasantly surprised? (Yes, is the correct answer)

Would you think we’d be 2-3? (Nope, is the correct answer)

by memphispete on Oct 8, 2009 6:39 PM EDT reply actions

Nice stats

But you kind of hurt your case by emphasizing the increase in plays per game. It draws attention to the fact that the offense is getting just 1.2 feet extra per play over 2008 without UAB, which is only slightly larger than a spotting error. The increase in third down conversions though is a real positive sign.

Your study also intrinsically assumes that this year’s Western Kentucky is about the same as last year’s UAB. While last year’s Blazers were 4-8 without a quality win, this year’s WKU has been hammered by I-AA Central Arkansas. There’s more difference between those teams than I think you’re accounting for.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Oct 8, 2009 7:02 PM EDT reply actions

The extra feet thing makes no sense

It’s like criticizing someone for talking about a baseball player’s improvement between seasons as he moves up to .300 from .270 by saying the the baseball play only has 3 more hits for every hundred at bats.

A 300 hitter will stay around the major leagues and a 270 hitter will head back to the grapefruit league.

4.6 yards per play against better average competition so far this year (see hooper’s point below) is significantly better than last year’s 4.2.

We aren’t satisfied but it is improved.

by memphispete on Oct 8, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

UAB could toast WKU, of that I have no doubt. However, 0.4 extra yards per play is pretty significant when you look at the total number of plays. I suppose I could have said we’re getting 9.5% (I believe, I’m a computer program, not a statistician!) more yards each play.

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 8, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I am a statistician, and I say that Tennessee's offense IS better this year!

by golfballs03 on Oct 13, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I have an idea

Let’s judge Erin Andrews just by looking at her boogers.

Rocky Top Talk

by Joel Hollingsworth on Oct 8, 2009 7:11 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

She has no boogers!!!!!

Neyland Stadium: Home of the biggest bust in quarterbacking history.
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 8, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Might I make a suggestion?

If we’re going to start trying to compare last year and this year to such a level (where we begin to account for opponents), then it’s probably a better idea to compare median performances rather than mean (average) performances. Medians are inherently more robust against outliers than are means, and it also provides a measure of protection against the question of quality of opponents.

If we apply a very rough standard, we might say that 2009 includes 2 great teams (Florida and Auburn), two decentish teams (Ohio and UCLA), and one fantastically bad team (WKU). Removing WKU and averaging leaves you with a pretty stiff average. In 2008, UT played 2 great teams (Florida, Alabama), 2 good teams (Georgia and South Carolina), 1 ok team (Vanderbilt), and 6 of teams of varying yuckness (UAB, UCLA, N. ILL, MSU, Wyoming, Kentucky, and Auburn). If you remove 1 low-end outlier from 2008, you still end up averagish – closer to MSU and Vanderbilt than to South Carolina / Georgia.

If you use median performances and don’t worry about outliers, you’ll come out a little bit closer to a fair comparison. In other words, take the middle-of-the-pack rushing performance from 2008 and 2009, and compare those two. Or if that’s too hand-wavy for you, average the two or three middlest (new word!) performances and compare them.

by David Hooper on Oct 8, 2009 7:19 PM EDT reply actions

Hooper, you can't be serious

I know it’s a mistake when you (of all people) put Wyoming in the category “6 of teams of varying yuckiness”.

The holder of The Streak? The Wearer of the Great Unwashed Jersey? The Capital C ow-boys?

;)

by memphispete on Oct 8, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

Listen, if beating Tennessee in Neyland Stadium wasn’t enough to save Joe Glenn’s job as Wyoming’s head coach, then Wyoming had a bad year.

but, LOL

by David Hooper on Oct 8, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

that's more a comment on Tennessee than it is the great powerhouse that is Wyoming

by memphispete on Oct 9, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Too much work, sounds like something to do at the end of the year ;-)

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 8, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

probably a good idea.

by David Hooper on Oct 8, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Both from a work standpoint

and a comparison between two sets where sample size is disparate.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Chris Pendley on Oct 10, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

After yesterday's offensive output, this is particularly poignant

by memphispete on Oct 11, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions

Mwahaha?

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 15, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

lol

I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 15, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Ran the numbers again, if quickly

And the Georgia game alone increased our passing output a game by 29 yards (and rushing game by 4) to put our offensive output change to date, without WKU, at +97/game.
Net Att YPA YPG Change
RUSH 722 181 4.0 144 34
PASS 977 150 6.5 195 62
TOTAL 1699 331 5.1 340 97

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 15, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Ok, so we now have to throw out TWO outliers (out of six games).

;-)

by David Hooper on Oct 15, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

If the stats are good

Then the stats lie! >:O

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 15, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

Can’t use the two worst teams in NCAA

I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 15, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, very cynical of us

To qualify good statistical games as likely outliers

I bet Florida isn’t throwing out their first two games of the season against high school teams when the calculate this stuff

I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 15, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

In Year2's defense

He did, on teamspeedkills.

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 15, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Ahh

I stand corrected. I have a thing against reading Florida blogs though, so you might see how I missed that. ;-)

I told you we would beat Georgia!! Now, as for those 9 wins in '09......
I got bored and made a blog!! SCS

by VolBrian on Oct 15, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Year2 certainly looks through an orange-and-blue window

When looking at Tennessee, sometimes, but I really enjoy reading most of Year2’s stuff, and kidbourbon and cocknfire give quality stuff. Year2’s stats are wonderful, in this instance I just thought I might check the difference in the stats if you remove last year’s outlier.

Really, though, I do check teamspeedkills more than any blog not having “rocky” in the name.

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 15, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Also of interest

With ALL games looked at, we’re outgaining out opponents by 117 more yards this year (up to 122 from 5). Our defense is allowing just 7 more yards per game, while our offense is getting 124 more yards.

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 15, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions

Another interesting gem from Year2

That I actually had missed, until looking through the archives, he ran some numbers and saw that UT was expected to win the UGA game 31-21. To quote his comment in this post:

The projections seem to indicate that not only will UT’s defense will be a big difference in this game, but also that the offense will have a good time as well.

I got punk'd by UT's Athletic Department.

by bobo_the_vol on Oct 15, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions