RTT Computer Rankings: The Darling of the Mid-Majors

The RTT computer rankings serve as the rough draft for RTT's BlogPoll ballot.  After discussion, any necessary tweaks will be made before finalizing the ballot.  And I suspect that the computers will raise some eyebrows this week.  (And yes, I know that Marshall and Central Florida play this evening.  You play on the NFL's clock, you can wait a week.)

Rank Team Delta
1 Florida
2 Texas 1
3 TCU 1
4 Alabama 2
5 Iowa
6 Penn State 4
7 Boise State
8 Cincinnati 2
9 Oregon
10 Georgia Tech 1
11 LSU 2
12 Arizona 4
13 Southern Cal 5
14 Pittsburgh
15 Utah
16 Ohio State 3
17 Virginia Tech 5
18 Brigham Young 2
19 Miami (Florida) 1
20 Oklahoma 1
21 West Virginia 4
22 Wisconsin
23 Nebraska
24 Oklahoma State 1
25 Notre Dame
Last week's ballot
Dropped Out: South Carolina (#22), Mississippi (#24), Central Michigan (#25).

 

Discussion and the full computer results after the jump.

Thoughts:

  • TCU  The obvious double-take comes in early this week.  But looking at their numbers, there's just not a weak point to the Horned Frogs.  A critical glance at the schedule shows wins over BYU and Clemson as their best two, which are quite respectable, and wins against Texas State (enter obligatory 1-AA team!) and UNLV as their weakest opponents.  They still have Utah left, along with SDSU, Wyoming and New Mexico, so they'll need some help; their schedule won't have enough beef to do it on their own.  But things look good for a BCS bid, even if it isn't the national championship game.
  • Alabama fell because they actually do have a weakness - picking up third downs.  Their 38% conversion rate is continually falling.  It's not a tremendous deficit, but at -0.189 on the RTT scoreboard, it's decidedly below average.  If that were any better, they'd probably pass TCU.  On the other hand, if offensive metrics counted for more, they'd lose ground - especially with regards to passing.
  • Iowa and Penn St.  Yeah, I'm bothered by them being so high, too.  But Iowa gets great SoS marks and hasn't lost, while Penn State continues to clean up their cupcake trail.
  • Arizona continues to hang around because their good opponents are almost all in November:  California, Oregon, Arizona State, and USC.  That will most likely fix this little eye-popper, but then again, if they win these games, Arizona will end highly ranked.  I don't mind waiting on them, honestly.
  • Close Margins:  There are a few.  Cincy-Oregon.  Utah - Ohio State.  Oklahoma State - Notre Dame - California.  These teams are all statistically equivalent.  So make an argument for knocking Notre Dame below Cal.  I'm all ears.
  • Tennessee at 27.  I'm surprisingly comfortable with that, even at 4-4.  Boy, I wish we could get UCLA and Auburn back, though.
  • Is Western Kentucky the worst 1-A team ever?  I hate superlatives, but multiple categories that fall three standard deviations below the norm is something to behold.  Take a gander at Halloween's last nightmare at #120 in the rankings.

Ok, so the data follows.  Here is the Excel 2003 version, and here is the Excel 2007 version.  Have at it and let me know what adjustments need to be made.

Untitled Document
Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.925 0.774 1.980 1.071 1.107 2.115 1.628 1.867 1.231 2.290 154.402
2 Texas 1.925 0.312 1.616 2.116 0.678 2.044 0.687 1.501 0.717 2.434 139.613
3 TCU 1.925 0.208 1.527 1.268 0.546 2.130 1.892 1.849 1.238 1.865 137.140
4 Alabama 1.925 0.525 1.959 1.837 -0.189 2.042 0.132 1.814 0.579 1.418 133.271
5 Iowa 1.925 0.864 1.665 0.616 0.479 1.068 -0.018 1.201 -0.357 0.586 116.229
6 Penn St. 1.463 -0.466 1.589 1.390 1.812 1.803 1.003 2.100 0.919 1.166 114.596
7 Boise St. 1.925 -0.438 1.446 1.071 -0.166 1.469 2.089 1.501 1.022 1.388 110.077
8 Cincinnati 1.925 -0.327 0.964 0.652 0.760 0.799 2.255 1.605 1.363 -0.144 106.046
9 Oregon 1.405 1.806 1.631 0.522 -0.728 1.011 -0.116 1.013 0.378 0.624 106.010
10 Georgia Tech 1.463 1.350 -0.932 0.154 2.200 -0.004 2.065 -0.037 1.121 -0.505 95.049
11 LSU 1.405 0.382 1.263 0.687 0.348 1.147 0.670 1.710 -0.933 -0.053 90.853
12 Arizona 0.736 1.705 0.329 0.991 0.916 0.771 0.371 0.036 1.210 0.083 86.866
13 Southern California 0.885 2.052 0.770 0.586 -0.754 0.479 0.513 0.735 0.868 0.519 85.345
14 Pittsburgh 1.405 -0.062 -0.293 0.972 1.186 0.784 1.837 0.892 0.390 0.336 80.634
15 Utah 1.405 0.004 1.438 0.191 0.016 1.112 0.551 1.066 0.278 1.747 79.866
16 Ohio St. 1.000 -0.255 1.533 1.336 0.339 1.713 -0.038 1.774 -0.025 1.003 79.526
17 Virginia Tech 0.364 1.961 1.417 -0.236 -0.100 0.739 1.399 0.718 -0.232 0.663 77.114
18 BYU 0.885 0.164 -0.732 0.920 3.052 0.189 1.746 -0.032 1.256 -0.786 71.842
19 Miami (FL) 0.885 1.444 -0.190 0.348 0.541 0.170 1.287 0.056 0.185 -0.154 69.715
20 Oklahoma 0.364 0.128 1.305 1.486 0.254 1.417 0.661 1.640 0.826 0.405 68.187
21 West Virginia 0.885 -0.034 0.488 1.041 1.133 0.427 0.567 0.282 0.554 0.534 61.909
22 Wisconsin 0.885 0.314 0.228 0.841 0.811 0.977 -0.049 0.369 0.278 0.389 60.433
23 Nebraska 0.364 -0.236 1.572 1.108 0.536 1.582 -0.054 1.833 -0.171 0.793 58.653
24 Oklahoma St. 0.885 -0.208 0.465 1.044 0.215 0.296 1.140 0.247 0.401 0.786 52.900
25 Notre Dame 0.885 0.692 -0.377 0.467 -0.100 -0.416 1.884 0.212 1.427 -0.012 52.520
26 California 0.885 1.091 -0.532 0.806 -0.179 -0.300 0.431 0.316 0.889 0.561 52.519
27 Tennessee -0.156 1.091 1.331 0.841 -0.546 1.342 -0.056 0.927 0.040 1.029 48.169
28 Clemson 0.364 0.652 1.462 0.284 -0.552 1.404 -0.690 1.101 -0.546 0.882 47.553
29 South Carolina 0.538 0.575 1.023 -0.218 -0.118 1.118 -0.221 0.753 -0.201 0.581 45.364
30 Stanford 0.364 0.955 -0.365 0.408 0.788 -0.112 1.011 0.282 1.029 0.088 44.831
31 Oregon St. 0.364 1.134 -0.405 0.835 0.597 -0.350 0.771 -0.067 0.554 0.188 44.673
32 Central Mich. 1.000 -1.161 0.334 0.608 1.156 0.347 0.766 1.047 0.219 0.223 41.057
33 Mississippi 0.364 0.041 1.471 0.130 -0.210 0.809 -0.278 1.171 0.265 2.148 39.737
34 South Fla. 0.885 -0.957 0.903 0.310 -0.016 0.758 1.223 0.944 0.127 0.107 39.637
35 Auburn 0.538 0.800 0.904 -0.814 -0.002 -0.201 0.395 -0.238 0.892 0.586 36.392
36 Navy 0.538 -0.417 0.442 0.152 1.388 0.759 0.114 0.413 -0.464 1.559 35.912
37 Air Force 0.075 -0.433 1.431 0.317 0.697 1.597 -0.205 1.511 -0.543 1.401 35.901
38 Texas Tech 0.538 -0.381 0.340 0.492 0.400 0.072 1.232 0.134 1.719 -0.171 34.293
39 Boston College 0.538 0.373 0.330 0.714 -0.837 0.515 -0.035 0.691 -0.698 1.034 32.689
40 North Carolina 0.364 0.058 0.952 0.983 -0.877 1.627 -1.097 1.101 -1.519 1.011 31.883
41 Fresno St. 0.364 0.126 0.100 -0.422 1.425 -0.219 0.742 0.247 1.387 0.291 30.488
42 Houston 1.405 -0.778 -0.319 -1.827 1.772 -1.752 1.696 -0.536 3.309 -0.717 25.460
43 Kansas 0.364 -0.508 0.091 1.041 0.461 0.228 0.590 -0.102 1.254 -0.022 25.128
44 Missouri 0.364 0.041 0.328 0.786 -0.543 0.603 0.073 0.265 -0.038 -0.162 24.335
45 Georgia -0.156 2.186 -0.516 0.147 -0.156 -0.118 -0.143 -0.694 -0.871 0.591 24.290
46 Texas A&M 0.364 -0.292 -0.308 -0.239 1.942 -0.702 0.838 -0.780 2.013 0.936 20.043
47 Troy 0.885 -0.645 -0.511 0.501 -0.006 -0.455 0.917 -0.345 1.394 0.412 19.551
48 Idaho 1.000 -0.722 -1.014 -0.205 1.977 -0.991 1.358 -0.935 0.999 -2.989 17.656
49 Arizona St. -0.156 0.086 0.483 1.483 -1.203 1.095 -0.802 0.753 -0.408 0.932 12.485
50 Michigan St. -0.387 0.788 -0.767 0.970 0.224 0.215 0.683 0.180 0.377 -0.775 12.081
51 Wake Forest -0.387 0.643 -0.284 0.053 0.843 -0.008 0.934 0.149 0.395 -0.649 11.032
52 Washington -0.676 2.691 -1.046 -0.709 1.625 -1.095 -0.350 -0.745 -0.220 -0.053 10.735
53 Duke 0.364 -1.042 0.204 0.263 0.092 0.601 0.827 0.038 0.408 0.011 8.334
54 Rutgers 0.885 -1.854 0.514 0.864 -0.701 0.633 -0.109 0.962 -0.584 0.837 8.323
55 Temple 0.885 -1.262 0.224 0.708 -0.772 0.835 -0.875 0.560 -1.145 0.185 6.991
56 Florida St. -0.156 1.493 -1.602 -0.907 1.420 -1.187 1.229 -0.745 1.178 -0.371 6.825
57 East Carolina 0.364 -0.724 -0.303 0.835 0.804 0.034 -0.860 0.247 -0.477 -0.267 4.011
58 Minnesota 0.075 1.310 -0.265 -0.649 -0.270 -0.729 -0.197 -0.238 -1.090 -1.921 2.331
59 Connecticut -0.156 -0.095 -0.299 0.513 -0.028 0.631 -0.141 0.526 0.441 0.271 2.099
60 UCLA -0.676 2.289 0.444 -0.314 -1.555 0.079 -1.102 0.195 -1.276 0.597 2.003
61 Kentucky -0.156 1.183 0.672 -1.206 -0.139 -0.174 -1.366 0.056 -0.782 -0.379 -0.464
62 La.-Monroe -0.156 -0.316 -0.176 1.036 0.719 -0.032 -0.203 -0.868 0.267 -0.637 -1.015
63 Kansas St. 0.075 -0.299 -0.125 0.843 -0.721 0.305 -0.168 0.071 -0.359 -0.210 -2.170
64 Mississippi St. -0.387 0.958 0.380 -0.081 -1.135 0.135 -0.854 -0.022 0.128 0.609 -3.893
65 Nevada 0.364 -0.544 -1.895 0.690 1.025 -1.091 0.632 -0.798 2.260 -0.329 -6.161
66 Marshall 0.364 -0.358 0.410 -0.724 0.070 -0.466 -0.825 0.474 -0.848 -0.905 -7.373
67 Northern Ill. 0.364 -1.690 -0.524 0.896 0.597 0.419 -0.066 0.874 -0.612 -0.101 -7.574
68 San Diego St. -0.156 -0.612 0.269 -0.030 0.597 0.170 0.407 -0.345 -0.579 -1.274 -8.797
69 Virginia -0.676 0.936 1.267 -0.233 -1.174 0.524 -1.476 0.369 -1.782 0.708 -9.291
70 Southern Miss. 0.075 -1.497 -0.306 0.590 0.515 -0.040 1.090 0.071 0.910 0.180 -9.369
71 Northwestern 0.075 -1.476 -0.443 0.490 1.463 0.183 0.064 -0.053 0.227 0.294 -9.987
72 Ohio 0.538 -1.547 1.084 -0.148 -1.006 0.465 -0.623 0.535 -1.108 0.672 -10.481
73 Iowa St. 0.075 -0.118 -0.467 -0.184 0.365 -0.634 -0.819 0.413 0.054 -0.404 -12.313
74 Arkansas -0.156 1.030 -1.262 -0.059 -1.691 -0.874 1.117 -0.415 1.078 0.443 -12.858
75 Purdue -0.850 0.838 0.918 -0.569 -0.098 -0.058 -0.590 -0.501 -0.096 -0.195 -13.389
76 SMU -0.156 0.509 0.930 -0.521 -1.924 -0.421 -0.176 -0.694 -0.009 -0.320 -14.025
77 UCF 0.141 -1.749 -0.456 1.200 0.175 0.420 0.208 0.733 -0.892 -0.235 -15.097
78 Michigan 0.075 -0.616 0.000 -0.414 -0.159 -0.384 -0.212 -0.099 0.426 0.409 -17.515
79 North Carolina St. -0.676 -0.529 -0.734 0.592 0.752 0.311 0.724 -0.694 0.563 -0.444 -21.447
80 Tulsa -0.156 -1.497 -0.007 0.679 -0.742 0.273 0.767 0.544 0.214 0.336 -22.622
81 Buffalo -0.676 -1.004 0.261 -0.140 0.886 0.118 0.223 -0.171 0.595 -0.607 -27.965
82 Middle Tenn. 0.364 -1.103 0.276 -0.294 -1.639 -0.288 -0.651 -0.171 0.414 0.749 -28.017
83 Louisville -0.676 0.624 -1.276 -0.079 0.124 -0.206 -0.654 -0.450 -0.174 -0.197 -31.121
84 Wyoming -0.156 -0.283 0.210 0.046 -1.320 -0.202 -1.497 0.142 -1.154 0.298 -31.362
85 Bowling Green -0.676 0.288 -0.092 -1.549 0.382 -0.485 0.025 -0.554 0.454 1.044 -31.644
86 Kent St. 0.075 -1.772 0.413 0.601 -1.511 0.217 -0.437 0.535 -0.712 -0.038 -33.951
87 Indiana -0.387 -0.229 -0.601 -0.037 -0.350 -0.729 -0.458 -0.532 -0.419 -1.018 -38.751
88 Louisiana Tech -0.676 -1.110 0.341 -0.889 0.958 -0.225 0.055 0.091 0.033 0.048 -38.988
89 Syracuse -0.676 0.260 -1.811 1.280 -1.668 -0.058 -0.014 -0.415 -1.156 0.207 -42.621
90 Baylor -0.676 -0.172 0.421 -0.825 -0.822 -0.436 -0.547 0.091 -0.568 -1.001 -43.553
91 Western Mich. -0.387 -1.044 -0.346 -0.754 0.893 -1.138 -0.075 -0.393 0.284 -0.447 -45.057
92 Maryland -1.197 0.570 -0.837 0.060 -0.274 -0.333 -0.402 -1.007 -0.924 0.336 -48.000
93 Colorado St. -0.850 0.793 -1.191 0.028 -1.105 -0.752 0.033 -0.889 -0.660 -3.033 -48.094
94 Arkansas St. -1.048 -0.814 -0.354 0.835 -0.593 0.303 -0.518 0.633 -0.587 -0.073 -48.376
95 Toledo -0.387 -1.035 0.010 -0.785 -0.233 -1.119 0.483 -1.817 1.123 -1.405 -51.770
96 Illinois -1.197 0.516 -0.706 -0.750 -0.036 -0.880 -1.129 -0.206 -0.105 -1.034 -58.737
97 Colorado -1.197 0.619 -0.728 -0.233 -0.485 -0.380 -1.704 -0.710 -1.628 0.981 -58.829
98 Utah St. -1.197 0.363 -0.298 -1.278 -0.847 -1.037 0.494 -0.938 1.053 -0.437 -59.505
99 Hawaii -1.197 0.072 -1.060 -1.615 0.966 -1.125 0.357 -1.181 0.975 -1.198 -64.562
100 Vanderbilt -1.312 -0.198 0.679 -1.087 -0.725 0.154 -2.168 0.335 -0.825 0.091 -66.563
101 Army -0.676 -1.753 0.353 0.655 -1.745 1.189 -2.320 0.247 -1.750 -0.012 -66.965
102 La.-Lafayette -0.156 -1.744 -0.614 -0.741 0.120 -0.887 -0.607 -0.903 -0.501 -1.637 -67.126
103 UNLV -0.850 -0.067 -1.949 -1.588 1.503 -1.546 -0.522 -1.307 -0.361 -2.158 -74.884
104 Fla. Atlantic -1.048 -0.692 -0.591 -1.876 0.500 -1.201 0.120 -1.378 1.337 -0.071 -75.970
105 Miami (OH) -1.775 0.687 -0.357 -0.870 -0.657 -0.321 -1.088 -1.229 -0.858 -0.616 -76.817
106 UAB -0.676 -0.231 -1.524 -0.172 -1.020 -1.988 -0.806 -1.251 -0.145 -1.556 -79.217
107 UTEP -0.676 -0.475 -0.875 -1.685 -0.069 -1.896 -1.105 -1.321 0.011 -1.001 -83.608
108 North Texas -1.197 -1.342 -0.098 -1.180 0.459 -1.260 0.106 -2.034 0.864 -0.353 -85.085
109 San Jose St. -1.643 2.165 -0.935 -2.294 -1.801 -1.604 -0.942 -1.496 -1.783 -0.766 -87.808
110 Memphis -1.197 -1.126 -0.293 -1.249 -0.531 -0.975 -0.443 -0.833 -0.196 0.584 -90.780
111 Tulane -1.197 0.016 -1.992 -1.406 0.298 -0.923 -0.577 -1.808 -1.140 -2.472 -93.056
112 New Mexico St. -0.850 -0.898 0.058 -1.309 -1.041 -0.529 -2.747 -0.765 -2.576 -0.887 -95.310
113 Akron -1.717 -0.372 -0.152 -0.892 -1.563 0.168 -1.145 -0.292 -1.837 -1.331 -96.992
114 FIU -1.197 -0.595 -0.673 -1.885 -0.517 -1.999 -0.857 -1.094 -0.837 0.546 -104.063
115 Washington St. -1.717 2.036 -1.869 -1.775 -2.169 -2.600 -1.185 -1.808 -1.688 0.367 -109.321
116 Ball St. -1.775 -1.554 -1.214 -0.313 -0.684 -0.386 -2.041 -0.625 -1.210 0.180 -126.579
117 New Mexico -2.237 -0.440 -1.374 -0.399 -1.818 -0.923 -1.118 -1.546 -1.267 -1.590 -136.682
118 Eastern Mich. -2.237 -0.579 -0.446 -3.093 -0.625 -1.088 -1.441 -1.808 -1.815 -0.740 -149.732
119 Rice -2.237 0.055 -2.476 -1.528 -1.253 -1.887 -1.938 -2.940 -1.396 -0.763 -162.681
120 Western Ky. -2.237 -0.849 -3.262 -3.000 -1.408 -2.724 -1.161 -2.888 -1.265 -2.946 -207.628
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