RTT Computer Rankings: The Darling of the Mid-Majors

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 4:30 PM EST Comment 18 comments

The RTT computer rankings serve as the rough draft for RTT's BlogPoll ballot. After discussion, any necessary tweaks will be made before finalizing the ballot. And I suspect that the computers will raise some eyebrows this week. (And yes, I know that Marshall and Central Florida play this evening. You play on the NFL's clock, you can wait a week.)

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Texas	1
3	TCU	1
4	Alabama	2
5	Iowa
6	Penn State	4
7	Boise State
8	Cincinnati	2
9	Oregon
10	Georgia Tech	1
11	LSU	2
12	Arizona	4
13	Southern Cal	5
14	Pittsburgh
15	Utah
16	Ohio State	3
17	Virginia Tech	5
18	Brigham Young	2
19	Miami (Florida)	1
20	Oklahoma	1
21	West Virginia	4
22	Wisconsin
23	Nebraska
24	Oklahoma State	1
25	Notre Dame
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: South Carolina (#22), Mississippi (#24), Central Michigan (#25).

Discussion and the full computer results after the jump.

Thoughts:

TCU The obvious double-take comes in early this week. But looking at their numbers, there's just not a weak point to the Horned Frogs. A critical glance at the schedule shows wins over BYU and Clemson as their best two, which are quite respectable, and wins against Texas State (enter obligatory 1-AA team!) and UNLV as their weakest opponents. They still have Utah left, along with SDSU, Wyoming and New Mexico, so they'll need some help; their schedule won't have enough beef to do it on their own. But things look good for a BCS bid, even if it isn't the national championship game.
Alabama fell because they actually do have a weakness - picking up third downs. Their 38% conversion rate is continually falling. It's not a tremendous deficit, but at -0.189 on the RTT scoreboard, it's decidedly below average. If that were any better, they'd probably pass TCU. On the other hand, if offensive metrics counted for more, they'd lose ground - especially with regards to passing.
Iowa and Penn St. Yeah, I'm bothered by them being so high, too. But Iowa gets great SoS marks and hasn't lost, while Penn State continues to clean up their cupcake trail.
Arizona continues to hang around because their good opponents are almost all in November: California, Oregon, Arizona State, and USC. That will most likely fix this little eye-popper, but then again, if they win these games, Arizona will end highly ranked. I don't mind waiting on them, honestly.
Close Margins: There are a few. Cincy-Oregon. Utah - Ohio State. Oklahoma State - Notre Dame - California. These teams are all statistically equivalent. So make an argument for knocking Notre Dame below Cal. I'm all ears.
Tennessee at 27. I'm surprisingly comfortable with that, even at 4-4. Boy, I wish we could get UCLA and Auburn back, though.
Is Western Kentucky the worst 1-A team ever? I hate superlatives, but multiple categories that fall three standard deviations below the norm is something to behold. Take a gander at Halloween's last nightmare at #120 in the rankings.

Ok, so the data follows. Here is the Excel 2003 version, and here is the Excel 2007 version. Have at it and let me know what adjustments need to be made.

Untitled Document

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Florida	1.925	0.774	1.980	1.071	1.107	2.115	1.628	1.867	1.231	2.290	154.402
2	Texas	1.925	0.312	1.616	2.116	0.678	2.044	0.687	1.501	0.717	2.434	139.613
3	TCU	1.925	0.208	1.527	1.268	0.546	2.130	1.892	1.849	1.238	1.865	137.140
4	Alabama	1.925	0.525	1.959	1.837	-0.189	2.042	0.132	1.814	0.579	1.418	133.271
5	Iowa	1.925	0.864	1.665	0.616	0.479	1.068	-0.018	1.201	-0.357	0.586	116.229
6	Penn St.	1.463	-0.466	1.589	1.390	1.812	1.803	1.003	2.100	0.919	1.166	114.596
7	Boise St.	1.925	-0.438	1.446	1.071	-0.166	1.469	2.089	1.501	1.022	1.388	110.077
8	Cincinnati	1.925	-0.327	0.964	0.652	0.760	0.799	2.255	1.605	1.363	-0.144	106.046
9	Oregon	1.405	1.806	1.631	0.522	-0.728	1.011	-0.116	1.013	0.378	0.624	106.010
10	Georgia Tech	1.463	1.350	-0.932	0.154	2.200	-0.004	2.065	-0.037	1.121	-0.505	95.049
11	LSU	1.405	0.382	1.263	0.687	0.348	1.147	0.670	1.710	-0.933	-0.053	90.853
12	Arizona	0.736	1.705	0.329	0.991	0.916	0.771	0.371	0.036	1.210	0.083	86.866
13	Southern California	0.885	2.052	0.770	0.586	-0.754	0.479	0.513	0.735	0.868	0.519	85.345
14	Pittsburgh	1.405	-0.062	-0.293	0.972	1.186	0.784	1.837	0.892	0.390	0.336	80.634
15	Utah	1.405	0.004	1.438	0.191	0.016	1.112	0.551	1.066	0.278	1.747	79.866
16	Ohio St.	1.000	-0.255	1.533	1.336	0.339	1.713	-0.038	1.774	-0.025	1.003	79.526
17	Virginia Tech	0.364	1.961	1.417	-0.236	-0.100	0.739	1.399	0.718	-0.232	0.663	77.114
18	BYU	0.885	0.164	-0.732	0.920	3.052	0.189	1.746	-0.032	1.256	-0.786	71.842
19	Miami (FL)	0.885	1.444	-0.190	0.348	0.541	0.170	1.287	0.056	0.185	-0.154	69.715
20	Oklahoma	0.364	0.128	1.305	1.486	0.254	1.417	0.661	1.640	0.826	0.405	68.187
21	West Virginia	0.885	-0.034	0.488	1.041	1.133	0.427	0.567	0.282	0.554	0.534	61.909
22	Wisconsin	0.885	0.314	0.228	0.841	0.811	0.977	-0.049	0.369	0.278	0.389	60.433
23	Nebraska	0.364	-0.236	1.572	1.108	0.536	1.582	-0.054	1.833	-0.171	0.793	58.653
24	Oklahoma St.	0.885	-0.208	0.465	1.044	0.215	0.296	1.140	0.247	0.401	0.786	52.900
25	Notre Dame	0.885	0.692	-0.377	0.467	-0.100	-0.416	1.884	0.212	1.427	-0.012	52.520
26	California	0.885	1.091	-0.532	0.806	-0.179	-0.300	0.431	0.316	0.889	0.561	52.519
27	Tennessee	-0.156	1.091	1.331	0.841	-0.546	1.342	-0.056	0.927	0.040	1.029	48.169
28	Clemson	0.364	0.652	1.462	0.284	-0.552	1.404	-0.690	1.101	-0.546	0.882	47.553
29	South Carolina	0.538	0.575	1.023	-0.218	-0.118	1.118	-0.221	0.753	-0.201	0.581	45.364
30	Stanford	0.364	0.955	-0.365	0.408	0.788	-0.112	1.011	0.282	1.029	0.088	44.831
31	Oregon St.	0.364	1.134	-0.405	0.835	0.597	-0.350	0.771	-0.067	0.554	0.188	44.673
32	Central Mich.	1.000	-1.161	0.334	0.608	1.156	0.347	0.766	1.047	0.219	0.223	41.057
33	Mississippi	0.364	0.041	1.471	0.130	-0.210	0.809	-0.278	1.171	0.265	2.148	39.737
34	South Fla.	0.885	-0.957	0.903	0.310	-0.016	0.758	1.223	0.944	0.127	0.107	39.637
35	Auburn	0.538	0.800	0.904	-0.814	-0.002	-0.201	0.395	-0.238	0.892	0.586	36.392
36	Navy	0.538	-0.417	0.442	0.152	1.388	0.759	0.114	0.413	-0.464	1.559	35.912
37	Air Force	0.075	-0.433	1.431	0.317	0.697	1.597	-0.205	1.511	-0.543	1.401	35.901
38	Texas Tech	0.538	-0.381	0.340	0.492	0.400	0.072	1.232	0.134	1.719	-0.171	34.293
39	Boston College	0.538	0.373	0.330	0.714	-0.837	0.515	-0.035	0.691	-0.698	1.034	32.689
40	North Carolina	0.364	0.058	0.952	0.983	-0.877	1.627	-1.097	1.101	-1.519	1.011	31.883
41	Fresno St.	0.364	0.126	0.100	-0.422	1.425	-0.219	0.742	0.247	1.387	0.291	30.488
42	Houston	1.405	-0.778	-0.319	-1.827	1.772	-1.752	1.696	-0.536	3.309	-0.717	25.460
43	Kansas	0.364	-0.508	0.091	1.041	0.461	0.228	0.590	-0.102	1.254	-0.022	25.128
44	Missouri	0.364	0.041	0.328	0.786	-0.543	0.603	0.073	0.265	-0.038	-0.162	24.335
45	Georgia	-0.156	2.186	-0.516	0.147	-0.156	-0.118	-0.143	-0.694	-0.871	0.591	24.290
46	Texas A&M	0.364	-0.292	-0.308	-0.239	1.942	-0.702	0.838	-0.780	2.013	0.936	20.043
47	Troy	0.885	-0.645	-0.511	0.501	-0.006	-0.455	0.917	-0.345	1.394	0.412	19.551
48	Idaho	1.000	-0.722	-1.014	-0.205	1.977	-0.991	1.358	-0.935	0.999	-2.989	17.656
49	Arizona St.	-0.156	0.086	0.483	1.483	-1.203	1.095	-0.802	0.753	-0.408	0.932	12.485
50	Michigan St.	-0.387	0.788	-0.767	0.970	0.224	0.215	0.683	0.180	0.377	-0.775	12.081
51	Wake Forest	-0.387	0.643	-0.284	0.053	0.843	-0.008	0.934	0.149	0.395	-0.649	11.032
52	Washington	-0.676	2.691	-1.046	-0.709	1.625	-1.095	-0.350	-0.745	-0.220	-0.053	10.735
53	Duke	0.364	-1.042	0.204	0.263	0.092	0.601	0.827	0.038	0.408	0.011	8.334
54	Rutgers	0.885	-1.854	0.514	0.864	-0.701	0.633	-0.109	0.962	-0.584	0.837	8.323
55	Temple	0.885	-1.262	0.224	0.708	-0.772	0.835	-0.875	0.560	-1.145	0.185	6.991
56	Florida St.	-0.156	1.493	-1.602	-0.907	1.420	-1.187	1.229	-0.745	1.178	-0.371	6.825
57	East Carolina	0.364	-0.724	-0.303	0.835	0.804	0.034	-0.860	0.247	-0.477	-0.267	4.011
58	Minnesota	0.075	1.310	-0.265	-0.649	-0.270	-0.729	-0.197	-0.238	-1.090	-1.921	2.331
59	Connecticut	-0.156	-0.095	-0.299	0.513	-0.028	0.631	-0.141	0.526	0.441	0.271	2.099
60	UCLA	-0.676	2.289	0.444	-0.314	-1.555	0.079	-1.102	0.195	-1.276	0.597	2.003
61	Kentucky	-0.156	1.183	0.672	-1.206	-0.139	-0.174	-1.366	0.056	-0.782	-0.379	-0.464
62	La.-Monroe	-0.156	-0.316	-0.176	1.036	0.719	-0.032	-0.203	-0.868	0.267	-0.637	-1.015
63	Kansas St.	0.075	-0.299	-0.125	0.843	-0.721	0.305	-0.168	0.071	-0.359	-0.210	-2.170
64	Mississippi St.	-0.387	0.958	0.380	-0.081	-1.135	0.135	-0.854	-0.022	0.128	0.609	-3.893
65	Nevada	0.364	-0.544	-1.895	0.690	1.025	-1.091	0.632	-0.798	2.260	-0.329	-6.161
66	Marshall	0.364	-0.358	0.410	-0.724	0.070	-0.466	-0.825	0.474	-0.848	-0.905	-7.373
67	Northern Ill.	0.364	-1.690	-0.524	0.896	0.597	0.419	-0.066	0.874	-0.612	-0.101	-7.574
68	San Diego St.	-0.156	-0.612	0.269	-0.030	0.597	0.170	0.407	-0.345	-0.579	-1.274	-8.797
69	Virginia	-0.676	0.936	1.267	-0.233	-1.174	0.524	-1.476	0.369	-1.782	0.708	-9.291
70	Southern Miss.	0.075	-1.497	-0.306	0.590	0.515	-0.040	1.090	0.071	0.910	0.180	-9.369
71	Northwestern	0.075	-1.476	-0.443	0.490	1.463	0.183	0.064	-0.053	0.227	0.294	-9.987
72	Ohio	0.538	-1.547	1.084	-0.148	-1.006	0.465	-0.623	0.535	-1.108	0.672	-10.481
73	Iowa St.	0.075	-0.118	-0.467	-0.184	0.365	-0.634	-0.819	0.413	0.054	-0.404	-12.313
74	Arkansas	-0.156	1.030	-1.262	-0.059	-1.691	-0.874	1.117	-0.415	1.078	0.443	-12.858
75	Purdue	-0.850	0.838	0.918	-0.569	-0.098	-0.058	-0.590	-0.501	-0.096	-0.195	-13.389
76	SMU	-0.156	0.509	0.930	-0.521	-1.924	-0.421	-0.176	-0.694	-0.009	-0.320	-14.025
77	UCF	0.141	-1.749	-0.456	1.200	0.175	0.420	0.208	0.733	-0.892	-0.235	-15.097
78	Michigan	0.075	-0.616	0.000	-0.414	-0.159	-0.384	-0.212	-0.099	0.426	0.409	-17.515
79	North Carolina St.	-0.676	-0.529	-0.734	0.592	0.752	0.311	0.724	-0.694	0.563	-0.444	-21.447
80	Tulsa	-0.156	-1.497	-0.007	0.679	-0.742	0.273	0.767	0.544	0.214	0.336	-22.622
81	Buffalo	-0.676	-1.004	0.261	-0.140	0.886	0.118	0.223	-0.171	0.595	-0.607	-27.965
82	Middle Tenn.	0.364	-1.103	0.276	-0.294	-1.639	-0.288	-0.651	-0.171	0.414	0.749	-28.017
83	Louisville	-0.676	0.624	-1.276	-0.079	0.124	-0.206	-0.654	-0.450	-0.174	-0.197	-31.121
84	Wyoming	-0.156	-0.283	0.210	0.046	-1.320	-0.202	-1.497	0.142	-1.154	0.298	-31.362
85	Bowling Green	-0.676	0.288	-0.092	-1.549	0.382	-0.485	0.025	-0.554	0.454	1.044	-31.644
86	Kent St.	0.075	-1.772	0.413	0.601	-1.511	0.217	-0.437	0.535	-0.712	-0.038	-33.951
87	Indiana	-0.387	-0.229	-0.601	-0.037	-0.350	-0.729	-0.458	-0.532	-0.419	-1.018	-38.751
88	Louisiana Tech	-0.676	-1.110	0.341	-0.889	0.958	-0.225	0.055	0.091	0.033	0.048	-38.988
89	Syracuse	-0.676	0.260	-1.811	1.280	-1.668	-0.058	-0.014	-0.415	-1.156	0.207	-42.621
90	Baylor	-0.676	-0.172	0.421	-0.825	-0.822	-0.436	-0.547	0.091	-0.568	-1.001	-43.553
91	Western Mich.	-0.387	-1.044	-0.346	-0.754	0.893	-1.138	-0.075	-0.393	0.284	-0.447	-45.057
92	Maryland	-1.197	0.570	-0.837	0.060	-0.274	-0.333	-0.402	-1.007	-0.924	0.336	-48.000
93	Colorado St.	-0.850	0.793	-1.191	0.028	-1.105	-0.752	0.033	-0.889	-0.660	-3.033	-48.094
94	Arkansas St.	-1.048	-0.814	-0.354	0.835	-0.593	0.303	-0.518	0.633	-0.587	-0.073	-48.376
95	Toledo	-0.387	-1.035	0.010	-0.785	-0.233	-1.119	0.483	-1.817	1.123	-1.405	-51.770
96	Illinois	-1.197	0.516	-0.706	-0.750	-0.036	-0.880	-1.129	-0.206	-0.105	-1.034	-58.737
97	Colorado	-1.197	0.619	-0.728	-0.233	-0.485	-0.380	-1.704	-0.710	-1.628	0.981	-58.829
98	Utah St.	-1.197	0.363	-0.298	-1.278	-0.847	-1.037	0.494	-0.938	1.053	-0.437	-59.505
99	Hawaii	-1.197	0.072	-1.060	-1.615	0.966	-1.125	0.357	-1.181	0.975	-1.198	-64.562
100	Vanderbilt	-1.312	-0.198	0.679	-1.087	-0.725	0.154	-2.168	0.335	-0.825	0.091	-66.563
101	Army	-0.676	-1.753	0.353	0.655	-1.745	1.189	-2.320	0.247	-1.750	-0.012	-66.965
102	La.-Lafayette	-0.156	-1.744	-0.614	-0.741	0.120	-0.887	-0.607	-0.903	-0.501	-1.637	-67.126
103	UNLV	-0.850	-0.067	-1.949	-1.588	1.503	-1.546	-0.522	-1.307	-0.361	-2.158	-74.884
104	Fla. Atlantic	-1.048	-0.692	-0.591	-1.876	0.500	-1.201	0.120	-1.378	1.337	-0.071	-75.970
105	Miami (OH)	-1.775	0.687	-0.357	-0.870	-0.657	-0.321	-1.088	-1.229	-0.858	-0.616	-76.817
106	UAB	-0.676	-0.231	-1.524	-0.172	-1.020	-1.988	-0.806	-1.251	-0.145	-1.556	-79.217
107	UTEP	-0.676	-0.475	-0.875	-1.685	-0.069	-1.896	-1.105	-1.321	0.011	-1.001	-83.608
108	North Texas	-1.197	-1.342	-0.098	-1.180	0.459	-1.260	0.106	-2.034	0.864	-0.353	-85.085
109	San Jose St.	-1.643	2.165	-0.935	-2.294	-1.801	-1.604	-0.942	-1.496	-1.783	-0.766	-87.808
110	Memphis	-1.197	-1.126	-0.293	-1.249	-0.531	-0.975	-0.443	-0.833	-0.196	0.584	-90.780
111	Tulane	-1.197	0.016	-1.992	-1.406	0.298	-0.923	-0.577	-1.808	-1.140	-2.472	-93.056
112	New Mexico St.	-0.850	-0.898	0.058	-1.309	-1.041	-0.529	-2.747	-0.765	-2.576	-0.887	-95.310
113	Akron	-1.717	-0.372	-0.152	-0.892	-1.563	0.168	-1.145	-0.292	-1.837	-1.331	-96.992
114	FIU	-1.197	-0.595	-0.673	-1.885	-0.517	-1.999	-0.857	-1.094	-0.837	0.546	-104.063
115	Washington St.	-1.717	2.036	-1.869	-1.775	-2.169	-2.600	-1.185	-1.808	-1.688	0.367	-109.321
116	Ball St.	-1.775	-1.554	-1.214	-0.313	-0.684	-0.386	-2.041	-0.625	-1.210	0.180	-126.579
117	New Mexico	-2.237	-0.440	-1.374	-0.399	-1.818	-0.923	-1.118	-1.546	-1.267	-1.590	-136.682
118	Eastern Mich.	-2.237	-0.579	-0.446	-3.093	-0.625	-1.088	-1.441	-1.808	-1.815	-0.740	-149.732
119	Rice	-2.237	0.055	-2.476	-1.528	-1.253	-1.887	-1.938	-2.940	-1.396	-0.763	-162.681
120	Western Ky.	-2.237	-0.849	-3.262	-3.000	-1.408	-2.724	-1.161	-2.888	-1.265	-2.946	-207.628

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Comments

Well done by the computer

keeping Boise ahead of Oregon

Rocky Top Talk

by Will on Nov 1, 2009 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was worried about that myself.

It’s close-ish, though, and the remaining schedule might make the computer change its mind if both win out.

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Before I get toasted.

I just realized I forgot to add the Excel files. Doing that now.

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

K. fixed.

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Penn State needs to drop, but I've resigned myself to Iowa.

I wish, I wish, I would love it if we could move Cincy to the top 5, but the depressing part is they’re were Auburn was in 2004 – needing multiple BCS teams to have a shot at a title, even though they’re from a BCS conference.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Nov 1, 2009 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Unlike last week, your top 12 doesn't match my Mumme Poll ballot

It’s close though. The top 11 is the same. But your #12 is Arizona. My #12 is your #42 (Houston). The Cougars have road wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to go with only one loss. But those defensive metrics are terrible.

Again, props to the computer on the Boise/Oregon thing. I think both (and Cincy) are better than Iowa though. Those Hawkeyes are causing so much trouble. I wanted Indiana to beat them so we could stop worrying about it, but they blew it despite getting 6 turnovers. Wow.

Tennessee is inching closer and closer. I said we’d make the top 25 with wins over USC, Memphis, and Ole Miss. The computer might have us there after Memphis (although I suppose our SOS metric will drop). Hopefully we’re still there after all three.

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 1, 2009 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Arizona is a tweaker.

If their schedule wasn’t so backloaded, they’d probably have a couple more losses right now and be alright. Houston is odd in that they have won a lot but have nothing on defense. Usually that bites you a couple of times. The next-lowest team with the same record is Utah at 15.

I do think that, if the offensive metrics had a bit more weight, we wouldn’t have so many problems with Iowa. Cincy would get a healthy boost out of it, too. With that in mind, I have no problem making manual adjustments there. Just give me a definitive idea on that; I don’t like making adjustments only on my own thoughts.

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the issue with Iowa:

They completely fail the eye test even though their metrics are solid. Championship contenders don’t need multiple FG blocks to beat 1-AA teams, they don’t need to meander against Big Ten dreck, and they certainly don’t give the ball over 6 times at home. By metrics though, they look solid – and it’s not just you, it’s everyone.

It becomes a question of if you trust the computer about Iowa or if you don’t. I think they’re a God-awful team who’s going to get wrecked in the BCS regardless of where they end up, but they can also win games in 15 minutes.

By the same token, I don’t know how to adjust the offensive metrics without a definitive end-game (i.e., let’s put Cincy ahead of Iowa). As a result, I’d just vote for manual overrides, although I suspect that the computers may actually be right at the moment.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Nov 1, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer manual overrides to weight adjustments at this point.

Leaving the weights alone makes it a lot easier to see how the computer is behaving over the season. That helps us identify the problems that are consistent rather than ones that just crop up once in a while (or only in the early going).

But I agree about Iowa. I’m loving watching them screw up the Big Ten, but not at cost of screwing up my dear little numbers… ;-)

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, good.

I wouldn’t want to do weight adjustments. But really, Iowa’s going to be at the core of nearly all the BCS debate when Florida and/or Alabama lose – Penn State’s getting a lot of computer love, and so is Arizona. I kind of suspect if both those teams tank, Iowa’s not in great shape either.

The other thing with Iowa that I suspect may be going on: we’re waiting to watch them fail now, so we’re discounting anything they’re doing well. Iowa coming back yesterday? That’s because Indiana sucks. Iowa’s 35-3 win over Iowa State? Well, Iowa State sucks pretty badly, so of course that’s going to happen. (That same iowa State team may get into a bowl.) We discounted Iowa’s schedule so badly at the beginning of the season that we gave them no credit, and we’re still not giving them credit; I’m not saying we need to give them all the credit now, but they may want some.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Nov 1, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's true.

One nice thing about computers is that they don’t care about brand names. It’s always worth giving the numbers an honest appraisal.

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW,

that offseason project of overhauling this with more robust computing power is doable. I looked into what it would take to get MATLAB on board and it’s not too difficult – just tedious.

As the season winds down and into the offseason, keep thinking about the rankings and the metrics. Once I get set up to start doing the actual calculations, I’d like to have some other brains for collaboration. But the sky appears to be the limit, and this could get very fun. Models from linear regression to neural networks to information complexity are all in play at this point. I could even use nonparametric models – just program in the last, say 10 years of football and let the computer figure out what really matters.

I think I can also get a handle onto the variance of the importance of all these metrics, which is the thing I really want to get.

It has me a little giddy.

by Hooper on Nov 1, 2009 7:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Excellent.

As odd as it sounds, Doc Saturday would probably be interested in a project like this for collaboration as well; you may want to reach out to him if you can. But still, getting that much data and doing useful stuff with it would be fantastic.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Nov 1, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That does sound interesting

Genetic algorithm perhaps?

________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.

by kidbourbon on Nov 2, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe.

There are a lot of factors, for sure.

by Hooper on Nov 3, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If I am taking your top 10 and modifying with a deferential standard of review (only modify where I think there is clear error on the part of the computer), I would end up with this:
1 – 5. (same) [I don’t like Iowa that high either. But these modifications are only for clear error. I’ll defer on the close calls]
6. Boise
7. Cincy
8. Oregon
9. Penn State (note that Penn State just moved four slots back. the rest are the same)
10. Ga. Tech

So, just Penn State based on clear error. I guess I didn’t need to write all that out.

Also, I would manually bump Va. Tech at least out of the top 20. Although this year after the top 15 or so, all the teams sort of start to suck a little bit.

________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.

by kidbourbon on Nov 2, 2009 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

No deference, just my own poll -- fifteen deep for fun

I have always been a big fan of the “who would beat who” criteria as opposed to the “resume” criteria. Obviously, these will get you to similar places, but I like the “who would beat who” as my guidepost. I think it focuses the analysis — makes things easier.

1. Texas
2. Bama
3. Florida
4. Cincy (this team is really really good. I’m not convinced they couldn’t beat the “Big Three”.)
5. TCU
6. Boise
7. Oregon
8. Ga. Tech
9. Iowa
10. LSU
11. Penn State
12. Utah
13. Houston
14. So. Cal.
15. Pitt

________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.

by kidbourbon on Nov 2, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Cincy would give anybody a game.

I just wouldn’t want to see that defense late against Florida. Their offense scores so fast, that they’d be gassed and going against ‘MANLYMAN HYPED AMPED TEBOWPOWER!!!!!’.

by Hooper on Nov 3, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs