SEC Power Poll: Rocky Top Talk Ballot

by David Hooper on Nov 10, 2009 10:00 AM EST in College Football

Explanations after the jump, as well as the computer numbers that defined the rankings. (And yes, there are already human overrides in effect based on previous trends.)

Thoughts

Auburn moved over Mississippi. Head-to-head, and the teams were already within a hair's breadth of each other.
Georgia over South Carolina. Same as Auburn/Mississippi, albeit with a slightly larger margin.
Arkansas over Kentucky. They're very close and, acknowledging the computer's tendency to undervalue offense, Arkansas gets a corrective bump..
Kentucky stays over MSU. Yes, there's the head to head, but Kentucky has one more win and, between the two, has the only reputable win of the season (over Auburn). I don't think the head-to-head is enough to overcome those two factors.

Computer Data

These are the numbers without consideration to the above changes:

Untitled Document

SEC	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Florida	1.951	0.390	2.173	1.097	0.840	2.190	1.712	2.015	1.039	1.974	148.938
2	Alabama	1.951	0.805	1.922	1.792	-0.388	2.025	0.165	1.784	0.621	1.382	136.679
3	LSU	1.017	1.096	1.072	0.555	0.220	0.870	0.414	1.553	-1.078	0.158	83.280
4	Tennessee	0.083	0.616	1.332	0.607	-0.159	1.133	0.557	0.798	0.373	1.030	50.369
5	Mississippi	0.550	-0.088	1.395	0.200	-0.107	0.759	-0.194	1.229	0.296	2.067	44.163
6	Auburn	0.690	0.215	0.935	-0.578	0.300	0.022	1.012	-0.270	1.241	1.013	42.278
7	South Carolina	0.270	0.844	0.598	-0.013	0.025	0.954	-0.136	0.589	-0.199	0.115	38.746
8	Georgia	0.083	1.394	-0.401	0.563	-0.167	0.510	0.056	-0.202	-0.606	0.715	30.808
9	Kentucky	0.083	0.562	1.064	-1.008	0.120	0.069	-1.132	0.274	-0.577	-0.338	8.588
10	Arkansas	0.083	1.015	-1.222	0.208	-1.035	-0.760	1.295	-0.202	0.963	0.222	5.141
11	Mississippi St.	-0.384	0.968	0.408	-0.056	-1.210	0.174	-0.866	0.013	0.098	0.662	-3.360
12	Vanderbilt	-1.411	0.502	0.399	-0.968	-0.643	0.152	-2.310	0.298	-1.063	0.227	-59.323
	Average	0.414	0.693	0.806	0.200	-0.184	0.675	0.048	0.657	0.092	0.769	43.859

Things of Note:

Tennessee can lock down 4th this week. Not that we didn't already know this, but it's a pretty deep cut if Tennessee wins. With Kentucky and Vandy left, UT can sweep November. Meanwhile, Auburn would still play Georgia and Alabama. Ole Miss would still play LSU. South Carolina still has Florida and Clemson. Georgia has Auburn and Georgia Tech. Tennessee is in great shape for the finish, and could even snag third if LSU stumbles against Ole Miss and/or Arkansas.
Style doesn't count for much. The teams at the top are all known this season for defense-first football and winning by not turning the ball over. The debates over offensive style are moot this year; keep the ball and stop the other offense and you win.
Talent, however, does. The bottom four teams are the ones who have had the hardest time bringing in talent over the last four years. Given Tennessee's vanishing class of 2007 and their inconsistent recruiting classes since 2005, they are the overachievers of the SEC this year.

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Comments

Oh

Here is the Power Poll ;-)

Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!

by bobo_the_vol on Nov 10, 2009 10:02 AM EST reply actions

Dang!

Again the green highlights show up in my editorial preview and FAIL in the real post.

by David Hooper on Nov 10, 2009 10:12 AM EST reply actions

ooh. That fix didn't work.

Grr.

by David Hooper on Nov 10, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

Florida is Green, Hooper.

Why is Florida Green, Hooper?
Are you trying to say that the word “Florida” is the best word out of those words, Hooper?

Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!

by bobo_the_vol on Nov 10, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions

Got that fixed.

I’m not worrying about the rest of it, though. So much for Dreamweaver being able to interpret Excel formatting.

Or, at least, so much for SBN being able to interpret Dreamweaver’s interpretation thereof. Ugh.

by David Hooper on Nov 10, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

At least it's bolded.

For you formula freaks, where is UT if we factor out win/loss from the equation?

Tennessee Fans: We win at teh Internet!

by bobo_the_vol on Nov 10, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

An extremely solid #4.

LSU comes in at 75.057 and UT comes in at 69.148. The next team becomes South Carolina at 43.997, with UGA at 40.855 and Ole Miss at 39.324.

That’s basically saying that Ole Miss scores equivalently to UGA and SC, which has to brighten the outlook for UT. The big difference is that Ole Miss’s pass defense has scored higher on the year while their run defense has suffered. That may be a function of teams played, but it’s reasonable to think that Ole Miss will be a better test for Crompton than Georgia.

by David Hooper on Nov 10, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

So if you have

6. Ole Miss
7. South Carolina
8. Georgia

What motivates you to switch USC and Georgia rather than USC and Ole Miss? Both have head to head things, and USC is actually closer to Ole Miss (6 points) than to Georgia (8 points).

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 10, 2009 8:28 PM EST reply actions

Umm....

‘cause I forgot about that head-to-head. If I had remembered, I probably would have left them all alone. And now it’s too late to fix it for this week.

Oops.

by David Hooper on Nov 10, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions