SEC Power Poll: Rocky Top Talk Ballot

Powerpoll2009logo_medium

  1. Florida Gators
  2. Alabama Crimson Tide
  3. LSU Tigers
  4. Tennessee Volunteers
  5. Auburn Tigers
  6. Mississippi Rebels
  7. Georgia Bulldogs
  8. South Carolina Gamecocks
  9. Arkansas Razorbacks
  10. Kentucky Wildcats
  11. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
  12. Vanderbilt Commodores

Explanations after the jump, as well as the computer numbers that defined the rankings.  (And yes, there are already human overrides in effect based on previous trends.)

Thoughts

  • Auburn moved over Mississippi.  Head-to-head, and the teams were already within a hair's breadth of each other.
  • Georgia over South Carolina.  Same as Auburn/Mississippi, albeit with a slightly larger margin.
  • Arkansas over Kentucky.  They're very close and, acknowledging the computer's tendency to undervalue offense, Arkansas gets a corrective bump..
  • Kentucky stays over MSU.  Yes, there's the head to head, but Kentucky has one more win and, between the two, has the only reputable win of the season (over Auburn).  I don't think the head-to-head is enough to overcome those two factors.

Computer Data

These are the numbers without consideration to the above changes:

Untitled Document
SEC Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.951 0.390 2.173 1.097 0.840 2.190 1.712 2.015 1.039 1.974 148.938
2 Alabama 1.951 0.805 1.922 1.792 -0.388 2.025 0.165 1.784 0.621 1.382 136.679
3 LSU 1.017 1.096 1.072 0.555 0.220 0.870 0.414 1.553 -1.078 0.158 83.280
4 Tennessee 0.083 0.616 1.332 0.607 -0.159 1.133 0.557 0.798 0.373 1.030 50.369
5 Mississippi 0.550 -0.088 1.395 0.200 -0.107 0.759 -0.194 1.229 0.296 2.067 44.163
6 Auburn 0.690 0.215 0.935 -0.578 0.300 0.022 1.012 -0.270 1.241 1.013 42.278
7 South Carolina 0.270 0.844 0.598 -0.013 0.025 0.954 -0.136 0.589 -0.199 0.115 38.746
8 Georgia 0.083 1.394 -0.401 0.563 -0.167 0.510 0.056 -0.202 -0.606 0.715 30.808
9 Kentucky 0.083 0.562 1.064 -1.008 0.120 0.069 -1.132 0.274 -0.577 -0.338 8.588
10 Arkansas 0.083 1.015 -1.222 0.208 -1.035 -0.760 1.295 -0.202 0.963 0.222 5.141
11 Mississippi St. -0.384 0.968 0.408 -0.056 -1.210 0.174 -0.866 0.013 0.098 0.662 -3.360
12 Vanderbilt -1.411 0.502 0.399 -0.968 -0.643 0.152 -2.310 0.298 -1.063 0.227 -59.323
Average 0.414 0.693 0.806 0.200 -0.184 0.675 0.048 0.657 0.092 0.769 43.859

 

Things of Note:

  • Tennessee can lock down 4th this week.  Not that we didn't already know this, but it's a pretty deep cut if Tennessee wins.  With Kentucky and Vandy left, UT can sweep November.  Meanwhile, Auburn would still play Georgia and Alabama.  Ole Miss would still play LSU.  South Carolina still has Florida and Clemson.  Georgia has Auburn and Georgia Tech.  Tennessee is in great shape for the finish, and could even snag third if LSU stumbles against Ole Miss and/or Arkansas.
  • Style doesn't count for much.  The teams at the top are all known this season for defense-first football and winning by not turning the ball over.  The debates over offensive style are moot this year; keep the ball and stop the other offense and you win.
  • Talent, however, does.  The bottom four teams are the ones who have had the hardest time bringing in talent over the last four years.  Given Tennessee's vanishing class of 2007 and their inconsistent recruiting classes since 2005, they are the overachievers of the SEC this year.
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