A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.
This is a long post full of moving pictures and stats, so I'm putting the conclusions and predictions both at the beginning and at the end.
Conclusions
- Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
- Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
- The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.
Predictions
- Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12
Schedule and Animated Drive Charts
@ Memphis Tigers | 9/6/09 | win 45 - 14 |
SE Louisiana Lions | 9/19/09 | win 52 - 6 |
@ South Carolina Gamecocks | 9/24/09 | loss 10 - 16 |
@ Vanderbilt Commodores | 10/3/09 | win 23 - 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide | 10/10/09 | loss 3 - 22 |
UAB Blazers | 10/17/09 | win 48 - 13 |
Arkansas Razorbacks | 10/24/09 | win 30 - 17 |
@ Auburn Tigers | 10/31/09 | loss 20 - 33 |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 11/7/09 | win 38 - 14 |
Rather than post all of the Rebels' drive charts, I decided to compare those of Ole Miss and Tennessee against common opponents. Up first is Memphis. Both games were blowouts, but ours was front-loaded (which is better, right?) and more blowout-y:
They lost to South Carolina, and we dominated, although we were pretty fortunate with the turnovers:
Both teams played fairly well in losses to Alabama and mostly kept the Tide out of the end zone (although the Rebels' let 'em have one). Ole Miss, though, threw four interceptions to our one, and the Tide pulled away from the Rebs at the end but the Vols pulled closer:
Both teams lost to Auburn, but we both held the Tigers to fewer points and scored more:
National Unit Rankings
Now on to the national rankings.
OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
|
|||||||
Category
|
National
Rank |
Actual
|
National
Leader |
Actual
|
Conf
Rank |
Southeastern
Conference Leader |
Actual
|
Rushing Offense |
40
|
172.44
|
Nevada |
319.13
|
6
|
Florida |
240.67
|
Passing Offense |
57
|
223.56
|
Houston |
433.67
|
4
|
Arkansas |
299.44
|
Total Offense |
51
|
396.00
|
Houston |
577.89
|
6
|
Auburn |
450.30
|
Scoring Offense |
38
|
29.89
|
Houston |
42.11
|
6
|
Arkansas |
35.56
|
Passing Efficiency |
72
|
126.00
|
Cincinnati |
171.84
|
9
|
Florida |
159.46
|
Sacks Allowed |
T-34
|
1.33
|
La.-Lafayette |
.44
|
5
|
Alabama |
1.00
|
Offensive observations. Smack dab in the middle of the pack in the SEC and slightly above average nationally in every offensive category except passing efficiency, where they're in the bottom quarter.
DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
|
|||||||
Category
|
National
Rank |
Actual
|
National
Leader |
Actual
|
Conf
Rank |
Southeastern
Conference Leader |
Actual
|
Rushing Defense |
58
|
136.44
|
Texas |
55.33
|
7
|
Alabama |
68.22
|
Pass Efficiency Defense |
14
|
100.02
|
Florida |
85.86
|
3
|
Florida |
85.86
|
Total Defense |
25
|
317.22
|
Texas |
230.78
|
6
|
Florida |
232.44
|
Scoring Defense |
12
|
15.78
|
Florida |
10.11
|
4
|
Florida |
10.11
|
Pass Defense |
23
|
180.78
|
Air Force |
127.20
|
7
|
Florida |
134.44
|
Sacks |
16
|
2.78
|
Pittsburgh |
4.33
|
2
|
Alabama |
2.89
|
Tackles For Loss |
26
|
7.00
|
Cincinnati |
8.89
|
2
|
Alabama |
7.33
|
Defensive observations. Sort of all over the board here. Extremely good at disrupting the opponent's backfield and pass effficiency defense, good at keeping points off the board, and average (in the SEC, anyway) in rush, pass, and total defense. Their primary vulnerability appears to be against the run.
SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
|
|||||||
Category
|
National
Rank |
Actual
|
National
Leader |
Actual
|
Conf
Rank |
Southeastern
Conference Leader |
Actual
|
Net Punting |
62
|
35.74
|
Georgia |
43.95
|
5
|
Georgia |
43.95
|
Punt Returns |
58
|
9.37
|
Arizona |
19.00
|
6
|
LSU |
17.32
|
Kickoff Returns |
16
|
24.97
|
Stanford |
32.06
|
3
|
Florida |
26.48
|
Turnover Margin |
102
|
-.78
|
Rutgers |
2.25
|
11
|
Arkansas |
1.00
|
Special teams and turnovers observations. Bell curve here. Really good at kickoff returns (uh-oh), okay at punting and returning punts, and really bad in turnover margin.
Stastical Comparison
Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in Hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:
Rank | Team | WL | SOS | PED | RD | 3DO | TD | PEO | OPPG | TO | 3DD |
27
|
51
|
32
|
16
|
39
|
70
|
16
|
35
|
26
|
47
|
16
|
|
33
|
31
|
59
|
14
|
58
|
66
|
25
|
72
|
12
|
51
|
2
|
Against a much more difficult schedule, the Vols are roughly evenly matched against Ole Miss. Where they're ranked higher than Tennessee, though, it's fairly close, but where Tennessee is ranked higher, the difference is generally more pronounced.
Players to watch for
Category | Player | National Rank |
Actual |
Rushing | Brandon Bolden |
95
|
58.11
|
Dexter McCluster |
52.56
|
||
Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game) | Jevan Snead |
73
|
123.84
|
Total Offense | Jevan Snead |
58
|
216.56
|
Brandon Bolden |
58.11
|
||
Dexter McCluster |
52.56
|
||
Receptions Per Game | Shay Hodge |
T-55
|
5.00
|
Dexter McCluster |
3.00
|
||
Receiving Yards Per Game | Shay Hodge |
31
|
81.44
|
Dexter McCluster |
39.11
|
||
Interceptions | |||
Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game) | Tyler Campbell |
18
|
43.80
|
Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Marshay Green |
36
|
8.82
|
Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game) | Jesse Grandy |
11
|
30.06
|
Field Goals | Joshua Shene |
T-65
|
1.00
|
Scoring | Joshua Shene |
6.33
|
|
Shay Hodge |
4.00
|
||
All-Purpose Runners | Brandon Bolden |
97.00
|
|
Dexter McCluster |
94.78
|
||
Shay Hodge |
81.44
|
||
Jesse Grandy |
74.25
|
||
Sacks | Greg Hardy |
T-51
|
.62
|
Kentrell Lockett |
.44
|
||
Patrick Trahan |
.44
|
||
Tackles | Kendrick Lewis |
6.33
|
|
Johnny Brown |
6.22
|
||
Tackles For Loss | Jerrell Powe |
T-77
|
1.00
|
Greg Hardy |
.81
|
||
Kentrell Lockett |
.67
|
||
Patrick Trahan |
.67
|
Observations
Running backs. Dexter McCluster is not ranked nationally in any statistical category, but he's everywhere doing everything. Apart from McCluster, it appears that they have a bunch of good runners, but no spectacular ones. Brandon Bolden is the most productive of the bunch.
Quarterbacks. For as much preseason hype as he got, Jevan Snead's numbers this season haven't been anything special. He's solid, and he can go off at any time, but he can also completely tank at any given time.
Receivers/Tight Ends. Shay Hodge is the team's go-to receiver with 5 catches and 81.44 yards per game. Oh, look. Next is McCluster.
Defense. Look at all of those guys making noise in the backfield. Led by Greg Hardy and Jerrell Powe, they're quite good at pressuring the quarterback and stopping running plays before they get to the line of scrimmage. Hardy's getting .62 sacks and .81 TFLs per game. Powe's getting a sack per game. Kentrell Lockett and Patrick Trahan round out the aggressive group.
Special teams. Jesse Grandy is a dangerous kickoff returner, averaging over 30 yards per return. He's returned two for touchdowns this season, one against UAB and one against Auburn.
Head to Head Comparisons
Best Comparable
|
Result Against Best Comparable
|
Prediction
|
|||
UT rush v. Ole Miss rush defense |
168.22
(#46) |
136.44
(#58) |
South Carolina (145.60)
|
199
|
190
|
UT pass v. Ole Miss pass defense |
232.22
(#45) |
180.78
(#23) |
Alabama
(174) |
265
|
240
|
Ole Miss rush v. UT rush defense |
119
(#39) |
172.44
(#40) |
WKU
(175) |
34
|
100
|
Ole Miss pass v. UT pass defense |
176.11
(#20) |
223.56
(#57) |
UCLA
(222.44) |
101
|
120
|
UT scoring offense v. Ole Miss scoring defense |
32.11
(#23) |
15.78
(#12) |
Alabama
(11.78) |
10
|
13
|
Ole Miss scoring offense v. UT scoring defense |
18.89
(#26) |
29.89
(#38) |
Alabama
(30.89) |
12
|
12
|
Again, not math, but informed guess. I doubt we'll have as much success against their running game as we did against WKU's, what with ladies man McCluster back there running all over the place and us working on our third starting middle linebacker of the season. I also took trends into account in bumping up the prediction for Tennessee's points. 13 may actually be conservative with how this team has shown it can move the ball in the last few games. But the most concerning thing about the above chart is that Alabama pops up as the best comparable in half the categories.
Prediction? More yards for Tennessee, but a close, relatively low-scoring game. Like the 'Bama game but without Terrence Cody?
Conclusions
- Against common opponents, Tennessee has fared better than Ole Miss. We beat Memphis worse and played Alabama and Auburn better. The Rebels' best victory this season came against Arkansas. We got ours against South Carolina, a team to which Ole Miss lost.
- Much like Tennessee (discounting the recent trend), Ole Miss is middle-of-the-pack on offense but very good on defense. They're especially good at pressuring the QB and stopping plays before they can get across the line of scrimmage.
- The keys to the game for Tennessee will be winning the line of scrimmage on offense and balancing the defense to stop McCluster's big-play ability and Snead's potential as a good passer.
Predictions
- Tennessee 13, Ole Miss 12