Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: game preview

by Joel on Nov 19, 2009 7:26 AM EST in Tennessee Volunteer Football Comment 2 comments

A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.

This is a long post full of moving pictures and stats, so I'm putting the conclusions and predictions both at the beginning and at the end.

Conclusions

To say Vanderbilt's passing attack is woeful is generous. They have had some success running the ball this season, though, so expect them to live or die with that.
The Commodores do an excellent job defending the pass, but have a Montario Hardesty-sized and -shaped hole in the running game. It's perfect for us!
Special teams should be an absolute battle of averages. They're nothing special, but neither are we.
Watch out for Warren Norman. Challenging Herschel Walker's freshman all-purpose record while dressed in a Vandy uniform is cause for amazement.

Predictions

Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 6

Schedule and Animated Drive Charts


Western Carolina Catamounts	9/5/09	win 45 - 0	coverage
@ LSU Tigers	9/12/09	loss 9 - 23	coverage
Mississippi St. Bulldogs	9/19/09	loss 3 - 15	coverage
@ Rice Owls	9/26/09	win 36 - 17	coverage
Mississippi Rebels	10/3/09	loss 7 - 23	coverage
@ Army Black Knights	10/10/09	loss 13 - 16	coverage
Georgia Bulldogs	10/17/09	loss 10 - 34	coverage
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	10/24/09	loss 10 - 14	coverage
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	10/31/09	loss 31 - 56	coverage
@ Florida Gators	11/7/09	loss 3 - 27	coverage
Kentucky Wildcats	11/14/09	loss 13 - 24	coverage

Vanderbilt and Tennessee against common opponents:

FULL SCREEN VERSION

National Unit Rankings

Now on to the national rankings.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Offense	47	163.36	Nevada	353.10	7	Florida	230.60
Passing Offense	113	144.73	Houston	428.20	12	Arkansas	310.00
Total Offense	108	308.09	Houston	562.60	12	Arkansas	450.10
Scoring Offense	114	16.36	Boise St.	43.60	12	Arkansas	37.60
Passing Efficiency	119	89.31	Cincinnati	170.01	12	Arkansas	159.97
Sacks Allowed	T-64	2.00	Boise St.	.50	8	Alabama	.90

Offensive observations. Yikes for them. A mediocre rushing attack coupled with a rotten passing attack that sifts out to triple digit national rankings in the majority of offensive statistical categories. I repeat: Yikes on them.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Rushing Defense	107	197.55	Texas	50.40	12	Alabama	72.80
Pass Efficiency Defense	33	115.47	Florida	87.18	8	Florida	87.18
Total Defense	60	357.36	Texas	232.30	9	Florida	233.90
Scoring Defense	47	22.64	Florida	10.50	8	Florida	10.50
Pass Defense	7	159.82	Air Force	127.91	2	Florida	139.60
Sacks	67	1.82	Pittsburgh	4.10	8	Florida	2.90
Tackles For Loss	56	5.82	Cincinnati	8.80	10	Mississippi	7.20

Defensive observations. Well, this is better. Vandy is excellent at defending the pass, so much so that when balanced with their rotten rush defense, the total defense climbs all the way up to middle-of-the-pack. Of course, that means that they have a huge hole in their defense, one that is oddly sized and shaped just like Montario Hardesty.

SPECIAL TEAMS AND TURNOVERS RANKINGS
Category	National Rank	Actual	National Leader	Actual	Conf Rank	Southeastern Conference Leader	Actual
Net Punting	70	35.28	Georgia	43.73	7	Georgia	43.73
Punt Returns	115	3.96	Central Mich.	18.47	12	LSU	16.23
Kickoff Returns	40	23.15	Stanford	30.78	9	Florida	26.12
Turnover Margin	48	.27	Rutgers	2.33	6	Arkansas	1.20

Special teams and turnovers observations. Eh. Okay at kickoff returns and turnovers. Not so much at punting and the opposite of okay (inokay? imokay? non-okay? misokay? malokay?) at returning punts.

Stastical Comparison

Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in Hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:

Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	RTT RANK
	64	24	17	60	72	25	41	31	57	25	36
	112	30	33	107	93	60	119	47	108	47	97

Well that's the first time this season that that's happened. All orange make Jackson say woo. Vandy's not shabby on defense, though.

Players to watch for

Category	Player	National Rank	Actual
Rushing	Warren Norman	75	64.55
	Zac Stacy		49.11
Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Larry Smith		88.01
Total Offense	Larry Smith		148.78
	Warren Norman		64.55
	Zac Stacy		49.11
Receptions Per Game	Cole		3.56
Receiving Yards Per Game	Cole		37.67
Interceptions	Myron Lewis	T-39	.36
Punting (Min. 3.6 Punts/Game)	Brett Upson	24	43.25
Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Alex Washington	54	4.72
Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Warren Norman	29	26.73
Field Goals	Ryan Fowler	T-45	1.18
Scoring	Ryan Fowler		5.27
	Warren Norman		3.82
All-Purpose Runners	Warren Norman	13	162.64
Sacks	Theron Kadri		.33
	Greg Billinger		.32
Tackles	Chris Marve	T-16	10.00
	Patrick Benoist	89	7.73
	Brent Trice		7.00
	Sean Richardson		6.91
Tackles For Loss	Casey Hayward		.77

Observations

Running backs. All you really need to know here is this: "Stormin'" Warren Norman (1,789 yards) is very close to breaking Herschel Walker's freshman all-purpose yards record (1,805 yards), and it looks like he's going to get it against us. Nice. Still, that is about all they can do on offense.

Quarterbacks. Larry Smith is their quarterback. That is all. Wait. That is not all. Vandy's passing efficiency is the second-worst in the FBS. Now that is all.

Receivers/Tight Ends. Heh. Just who is this mysterious "Cole?" Poor man is missing his first name. Or his last name. And his position and class as well, unless "null" is oneathem fancy new classifications of the modern educational system. Now that I think about it, Nu'Keese Richardson's and Mike Edwards's positions and classes might as well be "null," too.

Defense. Sophomore linebacker Chris Marve is tied for 10th in the nation in tackling, and he's forced three fumbles this season. Theron Kadri and Greg Billinger combine to have nearly 2/3 of a sack per game. Perhaps the rounding occurred last week.

Special teams. Brett Upson is a solid punter, and there's that Norman guy again returning kickoffs. Somebody stop him because if he goes McCluster on us, well, I'd rather not think about that.

Head to Head Comparisons

			Best Comparable	Result Against Best Comparable	Prediction
UT rush v. Vandy rush defense	161.30 (#51)	197.55 (#107)	Memphis (183) (#101)	137	180
UT pass v. Vandy pass defense	226.60 (#50)	159.85 (#7)	South Carolina (163.64) (#8)	142	140
Vandy rush v. UT rush defense	143.10 (#60)	163.36 (#47)	WKU (177) (#38)	34	100
Vandy pass v. UT pass defense	171.70 (#13)	144.73 (#113)	WKU (148.70) (#110)	49	120
UT scoring offense v. Vandy scoring defense	30.60 (#34)	22.64 (#47)	UCLA (21.40) (#35)	15	24
Vandy scoring offense v. UT scoring defense	21.20 (#31)	16.36 (#114)	WKU (20.20) (#104)	7	6

Again, not math, but informed guesses. I think we'll rush for more yards than we did against Memphis (because we came out passing against Memphis, but probably won't against Vandy) and have about as much success in the passing game against the 'Dores as we did against South Carolina. Based on how our defense has been playing the last six quarters, I can't believe that we'll strangle Vanderbilt like we did WKU. In the end, though, I feel pretty good about keeping them mostly off the scoreboard and hopefully out of the end zone and about us putting up points to within one score of our average.

Conclusions

To say Vanderbilt's passing attack is woeful is generous. They have had some success running the ball this season, though, so expect them to live or die with that.
The Commodores do an excellent job defending the pass, but have a Montario Hardesty-sized and -shaped hole in the running game. It's perfect for us!
Special teams should be an absolute battle of averages. They're nothing special, but neither are we.
Watch out for Warren Norman. Challenging Herschel Walker's freshman all-purpose record while dressed in a Vandy uniform is cause for amazement.

Predictions

Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 6

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Comments

A handful of clarifications

The name’s John Cole for the mystery wide receiver. I’ve watched a few VU games this year and he’s certainly nothing to write home about at 38 ypg. Also, unless I’ve missed an injury update, Mackenzie Adams will be the quarterback instead of Larry Smith (partially torn hamstring). That does not, however, change the fact that the ‘Dores cannot throw the ball…at all…it’s kind of depressing to watch.

I reveled in every second of Vandy’s bowl run last year and made it to the Music City Bowl (because when your team only wins a bowl game once every 50 years, you should try to be there whenever possible). I don’t really believe that this team is vastly different from that one, but last year they made/received all the breaks/bounces to be a .500 team. This year, not so much. Maybe basketball will be better?

by VolnVA on Nov 19, 2009 8:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ah

Thanks for that. Especially the update on the QB. I’m usually so hurried on these things that I don’t have time to actually read anything other than just the stats. So thanks for the additional info.

Rocky Top Talk

by Joel on Nov 19, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs