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SEC Power Poll: Rocky Top Talk Ballot

This time, I have a question regarding a possible override on the ballot.  Normally, I let the RTT computer rankings handle the details and just go with it, but there are two instances where two teams are close enough that head-to-head may matter.  (The computer doesn't explicitly look for head-to-head matchups.)  So...

Powerpoll2009logo_medium

 

  1. Florida Gators
  2. Alabama Crimson Tide
  3. LSU Tigers
  4. Tennessee Volunteers
  5. South Carolina Gamecocks
  6. Mississippi Rebels
  7. Auburn Tigers
  8. Georgia Bulldogs
  9. Kentucky Wildcats
  10. Mississippi St. Bulldogs
  11. Arkansas Razorbacks
  12. Vanderbilt Commodores

Full computer data and some thoughts follow.

Star-divide

Untitled Document

SEC Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.925 0.774 1.980 1.071 1.107 2.115 1.628 1.867 1.231 2.290 154.402
2 Alabama 1.925 0.525 1.959 1.837 -0.189 2.042 0.132 1.814 0.579 1.418 133.271
3 LSU 1.405 0.382 1.263 0.687 0.348 1.147 0.670 1.710 -0.933 -0.053 90.853
4 Tennessee -0.156 1.091 1.331 0.841 -0.546 1.342 -0.056 0.927 0.040 1.029 48.169
5 South Carolina 0.538 0.575 1.023 -0.218 -0.118 1.118 -0.221 0.753 -0.201 0.581 45.364
6 Mississippi 0.364 0.041 1.471 0.130 -0.210 0.809 -0.278 1.171 0.265 2.148 39.737
7 Auburn 0.538 0.800 0.904 -0.814 -0.002 -0.201 0.395 -0.238 0.892 0.586 36.392
8 Georgia -0.156 2.186 -0.516 0.147 -0.156 -0.118 -0.143 -0.694 -0.871 0.591 24.290
9 Kentucky -0.156 1.183 0.672 -1.206 -0.139 -0.174 -1.366 0.056 -0.782 -0.379 -0.464
10 Mississippi St. -0.387 0.958 0.380 -0.081 -1.135 0.135 -0.854 -0.022 0.128 0.609 -3.893
11 Arkansas -0.156 1.030 -1.262 -0.059 -1.691 -0.874 1.117 -0.415 1.078 0.443 -12.858
12 Vanderbilt -1.312 -0.198 0.679 -1.087 -0.725 0.154 -2.168 0.335 -0.825 0.091 -66.563
Average 0.364 0.779 0.824 0.104 -0.288 0.625 -0.095 0.605 0.050 0.779 40.725

 

Thoughts:

  • Override Question #1:  Mississippi and Auburn  In a very ugly game, Auburn clearly looked to be the better team on Saturday.  Granted, they were at home, but homefield isn't that much of an advantage.  Auburn has also played an extra game (6-3, opposed to Mississippi's 5-3 mark) and has a tougher strength of schedule so far.  Their defensive metrics are worse but their offensive metrics are better.  Since we're suspicious that the rankings may favor the defense a little too much, this would be a sensible override.  I won't change it, though, unless somebody tells me it's reasonable.  (S.O.P. for overrides.)
  • Override Question #2:  Kentucky and Mississippi State  MSU beat Kentucky in Lexington.  They have one more loss due but have played one more game than Kentucky (4-5 vs. 4-4).  The 0.2ish difference in strength of schedule almost exactly accounts for the difference in total score.  Both teams have gaping weaknesses, but are close enough in score that the head-to-head might matter.  Like Ole Miss / Auburn, let me know.
  • Tennessee  That win over South Carolina, coupled with Ole Miss's loss, bumped them up all the way to #4.  Since the top three are pretty well set for a while, that's basically saying that they're the most impressive team of the rest - something I think is a reasonable conclusion.  In future games, they'll lose some points on strength of schedule but should more than make it up in W/L and performance metrics.  If this team wins out and LSU drops more than the Alabama game, #3 is not out of the question.  But #4 is certain so long as they win.
  • Georgia  The road doesn't get any better.  Auburn has a substantial lead right now and are strong right where Georgia is weak: offense.  Even the inconsistent passing game is favorable for Auburn at the moment; unless something major changes, this may very well be the end of the line for Martinez in Athens.  But hey, woo! for toughest schedule.  Remind Georgia fans of that enough and maybe we can buy Willie another year.  (It's a long shot, but it's worth taking.)
  • Run Defense  Once upon a time, Florida's run defense was lights-out.  This was because teams fell behind and went pass-happy.  But ever since Tennessee, teams have been sticking with the run game and wearing down the defensive line.  Florida's run defense is still well above average, but it's their weakest metric on the board and the only real place a team has a chance of beating them.
  • LSU  I don't see how they score on Alabama.  Period.
  • Arkansas  I know that they have some better days than some of the teams ahead of them, but the computer is adamant that their defense really is that bad.  Again, defense is probably disproportionately heavy to offense (something that will be reviewed over the offseason), but I'm not inclined to bump them ahead of MSU or Kentucky (pending override) because I don't trust teams without defenses.

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Comments

Display:

I'm always going to vote in favor of head to head

Auburn was two possessions better than Ole Miss, State won on the road and has been competitive every week, whatever that’s worth. Head to head gets harder to judge as everybody plays almost everybody else by season’s end, but right now I’d be in favor of honoring it.

by Will on Nov 2, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oh, thud.

Those boldfaced numbers are supposed to be highlighted in green in that table. It looked right when I was typing the thing up. Huh.

I did try a different way of importing the table into Dreamweaver, though. Maybe that had something to do with it.

by Hooper on Nov 2, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I like the head to heads as well

Count me in favor of Auburn over Ole Miss. When one team has more losses than another, I don’t think head to head means as much, but where the records are the same, I think it should trump metrics.

Rocky Top Talk

by Joel on Nov 2, 2009 7:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Auburn/Miss...

I suspect the Auburn/Mississippi switch would be perfectly reasonable… although I think the fact that either is in the top half is a function of weakness rather than strength.

MSU over Kentucky, the results demonstrated that… but I’d be willing to bet that +50% of the time, Kentucky would have won that game comfortably. That was the result of an All-World individual performance, and Kentucky does have a more impressive resume… the same could be said for Auburn winning at Tennessee vs. Ole Miss’s zero quality wins… even if I think Tennessee is a drastically different team now.

by CabanX on Nov 2, 2009 8:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This is the exact same ballot as I have, only with two exceptions and without the computer.

Exception one is Arkansas over Vandy, who looks completely helpless. Exception two is I’m trying to preserve head-to-head integrity where I can, which means Auburn over Ole Miss and Mississippi State over Kentucky.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Nov 2, 2009 8:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You have Vanderbilt over Arkansas?

Or do we actually agree on that one?

by Hooper on Nov 2, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Um, we agree on that. I'm on it.

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Nov 2, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Nov 3, 2009 6:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, I made the head-to-head changes.

Thanks for the feedback. I know the tweaks I like, but I don’t like initiating changes on my own. The weights are under my control, so the tweaks should come from outside myself.

by Hooper on Nov 3, 2009 12:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hooper doesn't think LSU can score on Bama.

And kidbourbon knows that you can’t win if you don’t score.

So there you have it.

________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.

by kidbourbon on Nov 3, 2009 8:17 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Heh.

I should clarify that I meant I can’t see LSU’s offense scoring. Their defense might be able to get a turnover off of McElroy. But that’s not going to be enough either way.

by Hooper on Nov 3, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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