RTT BlogPoll Ballot Draft - Week 12

by Hooper on Nov 22, 2009 2:00 PM EST in College Football Comment 8 comments

Here is the draft for RTT's ballot in the blogpoll. Numbers and thoughts follow.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Alabama
4	TCU
5	Georgia Tech	2
6	Cincinnati	1
7	Virginia Tech	4
8	Penn State	5
9	Ohio State	1
10	Boise State	4
11	Pittsburgh	2
12	Oregon	2
13	Brigham Young	1
14	Miami (Florida)	5
15	Iowa	3
16	Oregon State	6
17	Nebraska	4
18	North Carolina	7
19	Oklahoma State	1
20	Arizona	2
21	Clemson	3
22	LSU	6
23	Mississippi
24	Oklahoma	9
25	Southern Cal
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Stanford (#17), Wisconsin (#23).

Observations:

The Undefeateds The first four are in a tight pack again, but TCU has a tough road. They play New Mexico (proud owners of one win over Colorado State!), which will spike their SOS. Cincy continues to get edge by Georgia Tech due to SOS issues, though that may possibly get corrected if both win out because GaTech only has Georgia on their schedule while Cincy gets Illinois and Pittsburgh. (Yes, you may snicker.) Boise State slides partly because the numbers are very tight, but partly because of a continued dropoff in SOS. In short, their conference is killing them. However, their less-than-typical defensive performance against Utah State didn't help much, and they get Nevada to close the season. I'd like to bump them back up, but it'll be tough for them to do much without significant help.
The Big 10 Yes, Penn State will fall below Ohio State. Head to head and all that. How far, though? And should OSU slide down?
BYU/Utah I find it a little odd that these two are so separated (13 and 26, respectively). BYU has extraordinary 3DO and PEO numbers, and they are actually driving a nearly 30 point difference on their own. Even at that, I don't feel that this should be such a gap. I think I'll bump up Utah for reasons to be shortly covered, but should BYU be throttled back a bit?
Oklahoma/Arizona I think I should drop these two a bit. There are plenty of teams with better records who would make good top 25 candidates. Dropping them would give Utah some room, for example. But this brings up another question: the weights.

Weights

I feel like a lot of adjustments I'm wanting to do are to bump up teams with notably good records who are getting slotted behind teams with lesser records. I wonder if the number of games played at this point would dictate adding more weight to the W/L metric. In the attached sheets, feel free to play around with the weights and see what you think. I found that W/L of 30 and SOS of 10 (and all else untouched) came closer to my gut check. But as we look forward to the offseason and improving this sheet, now is a good time to better understand the season-long dynamics.

The numbers are in Excel 2003 and Excel 2007 form for your download if you wish to play around with them. They are also in static form in the table below.

Untitled Document

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Florida	1.946	0.223	2.286	1.320	1.233	2.353	1.913	2.213	1.104	2.143	156.107
2	Texas	1.946	0.138	1.649	2.261	1.337	2.197	1.075	1.711	1.027	2.347	149.515
3	Alabama	1.946	0.453	2.489	1.785	-0.346	2.434	0.441	2.200	0.677	1.831	143.588
4	TCU	1.946	0.057	1.775	1.405	0.714	2.196	1.735	1.802	1.616	2.049	141.060
5	Georgia Tech	1.568	1.323	-0.729	0.701	2.062	0.312	1.950	0.213	1.221	-0.206	107.446
6	Cincinnati	1.946	-0.020	0.766	0.333	0.467	0.500	2.393	1.182	1.708	-0.003	102.612
7	Virginia Tech	0.813	1.670	1.724	0.278	0.198	1.116	1.249	1.313	0.018	0.958	101.688
8	Penn St.	1.254	-0.295	1.262	1.242	1.590	1.527	0.886	1.920	0.583	1.188	100.055
9	Ohio St.	1.254	0.185	1.669	1.486	0.112	1.781	-0.119	1.871	-0.236	1.291	96.717
10	Boise St.	1.946	-0.928	1.348	0.752	-0.304	1.092	2.175	1.128	1.328	1.030	92.910
11	Pittsburgh	1.531	0.075	0.217	1.038	0.929	0.869	1.746	1.080	0.548	0.564	92.584
12	Oregon	1.191	1.706	1.136	0.388	-0.652	0.706	0.045	0.333	0.691	0.460	88.171
13	BYU	1.191	-0.340	-0.058	0.790	3.021	0.530	2.256	0.505	1.274	-0.341	86.159
14	Miami (FL)	0.813	1.368	0.282	0.726	1.345	0.593	0.700	0.228	0.601	0.493	84.008
15	Iowa	1.254	0.465	1.953	0.589	-0.292	1.359	-0.532	1.386	-0.822	0.553	82.848
16	Oregon St.	0.813	0.915	-0.072	1.136	1.373	0.417	1.006	0.413	0.749	0.662	77.818
17	Nebraska	0.813	-0.022	2.099	1.124	0.019	1.453	-0.036	2.148	-0.569	1.162	77.783
18	North Carolina	0.813	0.717	1.720	1.231	-0.289	1.796	-1.295	1.326	-1.418	1.914	76.223
19	Oklahoma St.	1.191	-0.054	0.670	1.504	0.344	0.662	0.734	0.545	0.377	0.954	74.579
20	Arizona	0.284	1.460	0.343	0.824	0.926	0.767	0.237	0.089	0.890	0.725	66.317
21	Clemson	0.813	0.658	1.082	0.470	-0.169	1.180	0.139	0.995	-0.135	0.380	65.906
22	LSU	0.813	0.951	0.956	0.335	-0.051	0.738	0.075	1.498	-1.209	0.336	65.098
23	Mississippi	0.813	0.178	1.294	0.536	0.132	0.935	-0.071	1.233	0.496	1.982	63.929
24	Oklahoma	0.057	0.690	1.325	1.310	0.097	1.328	0.115	1.498	0.783	0.928	62.207
25	Southern California	0.699	1.586	0.982	0.273	-0.961	0.302	0.070	0.483	0.371	0.331	62.049
26	Utah	1.191	-0.412	1.445	0.118	0.147	0.800	0.415	0.863	0.332	1.461	61.910
27	West Virginia	0.699	0.568	0.548	0.612	0.813	0.397	0.477	0.556	0.251	0.762	60.767
28	California	0.813	1.300	-0.175	0.830	-0.156	-0.103	0.131	0.306	0.512	0.164	56.718
29	Wisconsin	0.813	0.012	-0.367	1.166	1.100	0.790	0.454	0.213	0.424	0.331	53.158
30	Navy	0.813	-0.196	0.147	0.312	1.483	0.455	0.746	0.572	-0.433	0.725	48.911
31	Central Mich.	1.191	-1.752	0.541	0.642	1.273	0.585	1.439	1.220	0.566	0.479	47.372
32	Stanford	0.435	1.303	-0.334	-0.014	1.143	-0.481	0.716	-0.011	0.994	-0.565	46.148
33	Texas Tech	0.435	0.190	0.547	0.475	0.300	0.263	0.902	0.359	1.574	-0.056	42.952
34	Auburn	0.435	0.656	0.877	-0.521	0.236	0.091	1.069	-0.289	1.080	0.954	42.257
35	South Fla.	0.699	-0.367	0.899	0.435	-0.129	0.790	0.858	0.818	-0.020	-0.079	41.992
36	Tennessee	0.057	0.604	1.406	0.141	-0.113	0.895	0.333	0.624	0.213	0.801	41.503
37	South Carolina	0.057	1.298	0.555	0.052	-0.192	0.973	-0.298	0.624	-0.377	0.217	37.842
38	Missouri	0.435	0.343	-0.056	1.083	-0.516	0.412	0.709	0.254	0.451	-0.243	34.577
39	Boston College	0.435	0.568	0.706	0.906	-1.591	0.738	-0.749	0.783	-0.966	0.889	29.449
40	Georgia	0.057	1.264	-0.611	0.623	-0.256	0.647	0.206	-0.237	-0.371	0.757	27.542
41	Air Force	0.215	-0.579	0.905	0.261	0.569	1.392	-0.406	1.411	-0.389	1.526	27.426
42	UCLA	0.057	1.375	0.481	0.037	-0.920	0.452	-0.717	0.637	-0.647	0.993	25.891
43	UCF	0.435	-0.545	-0.326	1.766	0.019	0.569	0.289	0.717	-0.661	-0.420	23.825
44	Arkansas	0.435	0.854	-0.817	-0.071	-0.567	-0.775	1.841	-0.011	1.144	0.481	23.575
45	Northwestern	0.561	-0.876	-0.016	0.554	1.309	0.352	0.149	0.245	0.128	0.762	23.393
46	Notre Dame	0.057	0.861	-0.341	-0.301	0.178	-0.427	1.533	0.121	1.264	0.138	22.527
47	Nevada	0.813	-1.000	-1.618	0.866	2.197	-0.559	0.600	-0.091	2.673	0.307	22.323
48	East Carolina	0.435	0.018	-0.004	0.447	0.306	-0.030	-0.465	0.532	-0.374	-0.112	18.609
49	Kentucky	0.435	0.352	1.012	-0.743	-0.044	0.158	-1.048	0.413	-0.613	-0.009	18.173
50	Temple	1.191	-1.815	0.368	1.024	-0.384	0.754	-0.577	0.665	-0.764	0.500	17.228
51	Houston	1.191	-0.982	-0.489	-1.597	1.695	-1.521	1.762	-0.620	3.358	-0.720	16.738
52	Florida St.	0.057	1.449	-1.318	-1.072	1.337	-1.224	0.905	-0.752	0.965	-0.464	10.468
53	Rutgers	0.699	-1.369	0.474	0.875	-0.905	0.835	-0.346	1.153	-0.934	1.078	9.660
54	Arizona St.	-0.698	0.965	0.825	0.918	-1.313	1.116	-1.018	0.558	-0.710	1.331	7.137
55	Texas A&M	0.057	0.063	-0.410	-0.231	1.641	-0.907	0.348	-0.898	1.386	0.468	6.387
56	Connecticut	-0.132	0.958	-0.802	0.335	-0.156	-0.180	-0.244	0.119	0.457	0.275	5.791
57	Michigan St.	-0.132	0.368	-0.738	0.804	-0.562	0.001	0.981	-0.010	0.490	-0.656	4.052
58	Fresno St.	0.435	-0.281	-0.193	-1.263	0.984	-0.610	0.655	-0.091	1.016	0.028	3.832
59	Southern Miss.	0.435	-1.282	-0.231	0.707	0.068	-0.322	1.426	0.082	0.665	-0.091	2.943
60	Wake Forest	-0.698	1.291	-0.173	-0.599	0.627	-0.213	0.654	-0.078	0.278	-0.570	2.087
61	Minnesota	-0.132	1.053	0.207	0.015	-0.771	0.002	-0.982	0.063	-1.421	-0.975	0.691
62	Kansas	-0.321	0.300	-0.224	0.447	0.306	-0.060	0.147	-0.329	0.559	-0.223	0.582
63	Troy	0.813	-1.216	-0.740	0.183	0.127	-0.706	0.897	-0.487	1.663	0.064	-0.060
64	Northern Ill.	0.435	-2.491	-0.122	0.940	0.934	1.005	0.520	0.876	-0.386	0.118	-3.615
65	Middle Tenn.	0.813	-1.966	0.885	0.221	-0.978	0.253	-0.319	0.241	0.877	0.926	-3.652
66	Idaho	0.435	-0.497	-1.501	-0.176	1.579	-0.869	1.292	-1.309	1.127	-2.686	-4.399
67	Marshall	0.057	-0.083	0.301	-0.102	-0.128	-0.179	-0.676	0.373	-0.616	-0.248	-4.487
68	Purdue	-0.478	0.507	0.613	-0.607	0.387	-0.213	-0.053	-0.592	0.219	-0.301	-5.132
69	Ohio	0.813	-1.784	0.897	0.084	-1.029	0.259	-0.351	0.465	-1.115	0.535	-6.656
70	Washington	-0.963	2.373	-1.391	-0.430	1.419	-0.999	-0.303	-0.872	-0.350	-0.832	-7.597
71	La.-Monroe	0.057	-1.644	0.257	1.035	0.668	0.239	-0.037	-0.196	0.271	0.064	-8.282
72	Kansas St.	-0.132	-0.069	-0.367	0.974	-0.965	0.428	-0.654	0.245	-0.502	-0.362	-9.791
73	Duke	-0.321	0.305	0.004	-0.183	-0.547	0.134	0.257	-0.263	-0.308	-1.051	-11.201
74	Bowling Green	0.057	-0.655	0.176	-1.128	0.768	-0.368	0.193	-0.196	0.381	0.754	-13.309
75	North Carolina St.	-0.698	-0.004	-0.702	0.234	0.946	0.245	0.566	-0.952	0.354	-0.885	-17.390
76	Virginia	-1.076	1.690	0.905	-0.354	-1.269	0.302	-1.598	0.015	-1.912	0.581	-17.898
77	Mississippi St.	-0.698	1.440	-0.122	-0.088	-1.624	0.002	-1.235	-0.250	-0.177	0.460	-19.548
78	Iowa St.	-0.132	-0.081	-0.528	-0.512	0.201	-0.873	-0.903	0.355	-0.329	-0.028	-26.321
79	Syracuse	-0.698	0.663	-1.473	1.274	-1.548	0.542	-0.358	-0.050	-1.075	0.785	-26.509
80	Louisiana Tech	-1.076	0.111	0.505	-0.648	0.497	-0.135	0.016	-0.183	-0.189	0.305	-29.324
81	SMU	0.057	-0.265	0.401	-0.593	-1.847	-0.786	0.074	-0.700	-0.079	-0.607	-29.416
82	Louisville	-0.698	0.753	-0.869	-0.257	-0.374	-0.068	-0.867	-0.078	-0.714	-0.207	-31.204
83	Buffalo	-0.698	-1.131	0.221	0.354	0.420	0.088	0.126	-0.050	0.594	-1.151	-31.621
84	Hawaii	-0.321	-1.038	-0.554	-0.961	1.059	-0.574	0.228	-0.528	1.375	-0.864	-38.077
85	San Diego St.	-0.698	-0.205	-0.210	-0.512	0.499	-0.284	-0.185	-0.833	-0.791	-1.429	-38.472
86	Baylor	-0.698	0.557	0.144	-0.897	-0.879	-0.779	-0.453	-0.422	-0.611	-1.160	-39.171
87	Michigan	-0.478	-0.488	-0.318	-0.572	-0.042	-0.506	-0.317	-0.362	0.102	0.319	-39.754
88	Wyoming	-0.321	0.365	-0.276	-0.546	-1.162	-0.615	-1.524	-0.474	-1.270	-0.181	-40.714
89	Illinois	-0.963	0.377	-0.521	-0.292	-0.003	-0.628	-0.968	-0.144	-0.151	-1.005	-44.211
90	Tulsa	-0.698	-0.871	-0.772	0.263	-0.281	-0.629	0.768	-0.302	0.532	0.558	-45.131
91	Colorado	-1.076	0.730	-0.302	-0.358	-0.815	-0.208	-1.392	-0.567	-1.242	0.808	-47.936
92	UAB	-0.321	-0.434	-1.540	0.215	-0.590	-1.619	0.848	-1.044	0.655	-1.325	-48.671
93	Indiana	-0.824	-0.011	-0.699	-0.273	-0.154	-0.640	-0.291	-0.653	-0.233	-1.501	-48.831
94	Kent St.	-0.321	-1.683	0.470	0.242	-1.561	0.089	-0.714	0.200	-0.611	0.074	-51.358
95	Toledo	-0.321	-1.318	-0.192	-0.464	0.101	-0.941	0.247	-1.839	0.946	-1.237	-51.589
96	La.-Lafayette	0.057	-1.854	-0.489	-0.724	0.467	-0.526	-0.664	-0.541	-0.603	-1.264	-54.151
97	Maryland	-1.454	1.035	-0.946	-0.134	-0.366	-0.628	-0.812	-1.070	-1.005	-0.091	-56.942
98	Vanderbilt	-1.517	0.942	0.536	-1.174	-0.756	0.029	-2.320	0.245	-1.241	0.111	-57.683
99	Colorado St.	-1.076	0.323	-0.909	-0.229	-0.897	-0.655	-0.108	-0.872	-0.478	-2.883	-60.849
100	Western Mich.	-0.321	-1.500	-0.568	-0.770	0.262	-1.259	-0.198	-0.435	0.042	-0.227	-61.661
101	UNLV	-0.698	0.192	-1.496	-1.950	1.158	-1.623	-0.551	-1.189	-0.541	-2.137	-67.673
102	Army	-0.321	-2.183	0.250	-0.033	-1.657	0.952	-1.727	0.387	-1.636	-0.134	-68.550
103	Utah St.	-1.076	-0.099	-0.311	-1.502	-0.646	-1.467	0.189	-1.111	0.888	-0.700	-71.395
104	Miami (OH)	-1.863	0.248	-0.574	-0.921	-0.166	-0.226	-1.006	-1.334	-0.602	-0.299	-84.501
105	Fla. Atlantic	-0.963	-0.860	-1.549	-1.799	1.008	-1.716	0.326	-1.615	0.973	-0.575	-86.903
106	Arkansas St.	-1.379	-1.338	-0.639	0.586	-1.468	0.087	-0.685	0.250	-0.980	-0.720	-87.278
107	UTEP	-1.076	-0.939	-0.816	-1.360	0.356	-1.370	-0.636	-1.402	0.610	-1.028	-89.070
108	Akron	-1.454	-0.619	-0.329	-0.572	-1.376	-0.133	-0.890	-0.646	-1.348	-1.603	-91.719
109	North Texas	-1.454	-1.734	-0.196	-1.020	0.668	-0.725	-0.167	-1.613	0.736	0.331	-93.625
110	Tulane	-1.076	-0.457	-2.044	-1.388	0.528	-0.987	-0.586	-1.839	-1.186	-2.010	-96.676
111	Memphis	-1.454	-0.250	-1.842	-0.677	-0.677	-1.694	-0.675	-1.455	-0.077	-0.060	-104.874
112	FIU	-1.076	-0.475	-0.919	-2.087	-0.820	-2.360	-1.330	-1.600	-1.170	-0.774	-115.386
113	New Mexico	-1.832	-0.229	-1.499	-0.333	-1.387	-0.925	-1.082	-1.389	-0.863	-1.721	-115.652
114	San Jose St.	-1.794	0.703	-0.330	-2.859	-1.343	-1.800	-1.022	-1.440	-1.714	-1.373	-116.761
115	New Mexico St.	-1.076	-1.031	0.053	-1.850	-1.512	-1.052	-2.808	-1.070	-2.487	-0.950	-119.479
116	Rice	-1.454	-0.259	-2.087	-0.942	-1.265	-1.392	-1.518	-2.235	-1.384	-0.880	-125.561
117	Washington St.	-1.832	1.861	-1.551	-2.011	-2.817	-2.662	-1.448	-2.077	-2.099	-0.552	-125.727
118	Ball St.	-1.832	-1.286	-1.773	-0.208	-0.808	-0.268	-1.974	-0.607	-1.350	0.034	-128.809
119	Eastern Mich.	-2.210	-0.781	-0.837	-3.188	-0.746	-1.279	-1.629	-2.063	-1.787	-1.264	-163.052
120	Western Ky.	-2.210	-1.063	-2.578	-2.796	-1.540	-2.485	-1.303	-2.503	-0.908	-2.499	-198.507

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Comments

*Oklahoma’s continued presence is inexcusable. Your computer LOVES them. They just got beaten by 28 points by the #33 team, giving them FIVE losses on the season. And somehow they stay ranked.

*Also, your computer has had a love affair with Penn State all year. I really don’t get the fascination. I guess it’s because they’re one of the best in the country at demolishing creampuffs. But the fact is, they have double digit home losses to both Ohio State AND Iowa, and hence should be ranked below both Ohio State AND Iowa.

*Bump Cincy and Boise to #5/6.

*Another team your computer has loved all year: Virginia Tech. Granted, their three losses are all to ranked teams, and they have an argument for hovering around the #10-12 spots. They even have argument to be ranked ahead of a few two loss teams (like Oklahoma State and Penn State, neither of which has beaten a ranked team). But not ahead of Oregon, Pitt, Boise. Probably not ahead of Ohio State either.

*Pac-10. The computer still loves Arizona, but the ‘Cats did impress me against Oregon in the loss. I have no problem with them hanging out around the bottom of the top 25. If they and USC beat their rivals next week, their Dec. 5 matchup can be a de facto play-in game for the last spot in your rankings. Right now, I think ’Zona should be ahead of USC. Despite having more losses, all of their losses have come by less than one score. Also, all but one have come on the road. That one was to the likely conference champ. The Trojans cannot say either of those things. The Pac-10 is just strange, with everyone beating up on each other. Cal has wins over ’Zona and Stanford but blowout losses to Oregon, OSU, and USC. Stanford beat Oregon and USC, but lost to Cal and ’Zona. ’Zona beat Stanford and OSU but lost to Cal. Gah. What a mess. Right now, ’Zona is still my Pac-10 #3. Things should get sorted out soon with their matchup vs. USC and the Pac-10 Championship in Eugene. I do tend to put Stanford over Cal, despite the loss. It’s hard to beat top 30 teams three weeks in a row. There’s a mess there with Stanford, Cal, and USC, all of whom are 1-1 against each other. But Stanford as the most impressive loss, so I keep them at Pac-10 #4.

*Pac-10 summary:
1. Oregon
2. ~~Oregon State~~ ~~Arizona~~ ~~Cal~~ ~~USC~~ ~~Stanford~~ Oregon State
3-7. I give up.
8. UCLA
9. Washington
10. Washington State

*BYU and Utah do play each other this week. That should sort them out.

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 22, 2009 2:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would agree with you on the PAC-10.

They’re a bigger McCluster than the SEC right now.

by Hooper on Nov 22, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And yes. Oklahoma.

Out of the top 25. Clearly.

by Hooper on Nov 22, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Couple thoughts

I think you’ve gotta allow undefeated Cincy to stay above Georgia Tech, just on principle. On head-to-head, you mentioned Ohio State/Penn State, there’s also LSU/Ole Miss at 22/23.

Rocky Top Talk

by Will on Nov 22, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Right.

I saw LSU/Ole Miss, but forgot to mention it. I plan on that one as well.

by Hooper on Nov 22, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I did like your adjustment to 30 and 10 btw

Although you’d still need a manual override on Oregon, who is hated by the computer. That would drop them below Nebraska, among others.

Also, if you adjust SOS to 9 instead, TCU moves ahead of Alabama. This would make me happy.

by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 22, 2009 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Heh.

I try very hard never to adjust weights for simply one team. Even if it is Alabama. ;-)

The weight adjustment appears to be necessary, but I wanted some feedback. Think of it this way: early in the season, W/L is a poor metric because of the extreme quantization of it. After week one, VTech was in the bottom half of the league in W/L, for example, even though they’re clearly not bottom half material. So it makes sense to de-weight W/L early. But as time goes on, I think it helps to add a bit more weight late because of how the numbers smooth out. Right now, the difference between 11-0 and 10-1 is 0.378, which equates to 9.45 if the weight is 25. That’s very easy to overcome in the performance metrics.

That would explain the sudden quirkiness in the computer over the last two weeks. It was running beautifully during the midseason, but I think the end season is throwing different dynamics at it.

And it helps with most of the oddballs, which tells me there may be some merit to the adjustment.

by Hooper on Nov 22, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs