RTT BlogPoll Ballot Draft - Week 12

Here is the draft for RTT's ballot in the blogpoll.  Numbers and thoughts follow.

Rank Team Delta
1 Florida
2 Texas
3 Alabama
4 TCU
5 Georgia Tech 2
6 Cincinnati 1
7 Virginia Tech 4
8 Penn State 5
9 Ohio State 1
10 Boise State 4
11 Pittsburgh 2
12 Oregon 2
13 Brigham Young 1
14 Miami (Florida) 5
15 Iowa 3
16 Oregon State 6
17 Nebraska 4
18 North Carolina 7
19 Oklahoma State 1
20 Arizona 2
21 Clemson 3
22 LSU 6
23 Mississippi
24 Oklahoma 9
25 Southern Cal
Last week's ballot
Dropped Out: Stanford (#17), Wisconsin (#23).

Observations:

  • The Undefeateds  The first four are in a tight pack again, but TCU has a tough road.  They play New  Mexico (proud owners of one win over Colorado State!), which will spike their SOS.  Cincy continues to get edge by Georgia Tech due to SOS issues, though that may possibly get corrected if both win out because GaTech only has Georgia on their schedule while Cincy gets Illinois and Pittsburgh.  (Yes, you may snicker.)  Boise State slides partly because the numbers are very tight, but partly because of a continued dropoff in SOS.  In short, their conference is killing them.  However, their less-than-typical defensive performance against Utah State didn't help much, and they get Nevada to close the season.  I'd like to bump them back up, but it'll be tough for them to do much without significant help.
  • The Big 10  Yes, Penn State will fall below Ohio State.  Head to head and all that.  How far, though?  And should OSU slide down?
  • BYU/Utah  I find it a little odd that these two are so separated (13 and 26, respectively).  BYU has extraordinary 3DO and PEO numbers, and they are actually driving a nearly 30 point difference on their own.  Even at that, I don't feel that this should be such a gap.  I think I'll bump up Utah for reasons to be shortly covered, but should BYU be throttled back a bit?
  • Oklahoma/Arizona  I think I should drop these two a bit.  There are plenty of teams with better records who would make good top 25 candidates.  Dropping them would give Utah some room, for example.  But this brings up another question:  the weights. 

Weights

I feel like a lot of adjustments I'm wanting to do are to bump up teams with notably good records who are getting slotted behind teams with lesser records.  I wonder if the number of games played at this point would dictate adding more weight to the W/L metric.  In the attached sheets, feel free to play around with the weights and see what you think.  I found that W/L of 30 and SOS of 10 (and all else untouched) came closer to my gut check.  But as we look forward to the offseason and improving this sheet, now is a good time to better understand the season-long dynamics.

The numbers are in Excel 2003 and Excel 2007 form for your download if you wish to play around with them.  They are also in static form in the table below.

Untitled Document
Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 1.946 0.223 2.286 1.320 1.233 2.353 1.913 2.213 1.104 2.143 156.107
2 Texas 1.946 0.138 1.649 2.261 1.337 2.197 1.075 1.711 1.027 2.347 149.515
3 Alabama 1.946 0.453 2.489 1.785 -0.346 2.434 0.441 2.200 0.677 1.831 143.588
4 TCU 1.946 0.057 1.775 1.405 0.714 2.196 1.735 1.802 1.616 2.049 141.060
5 Georgia Tech 1.568 1.323 -0.729 0.701 2.062 0.312 1.950 0.213 1.221 -0.206 107.446
6 Cincinnati 1.946 -0.020 0.766 0.333 0.467 0.500 2.393 1.182 1.708 -0.003 102.612
7 Virginia Tech 0.813 1.670 1.724 0.278 0.198 1.116 1.249 1.313 0.018 0.958 101.688
8 Penn St. 1.254 -0.295 1.262 1.242 1.590 1.527 0.886 1.920 0.583 1.188 100.055
9 Ohio St. 1.254 0.185 1.669 1.486 0.112 1.781 -0.119 1.871 -0.236 1.291 96.717
10 Boise St. 1.946 -0.928 1.348 0.752 -0.304 1.092 2.175 1.128 1.328 1.030 92.910
11 Pittsburgh 1.531 0.075 0.217 1.038 0.929 0.869 1.746 1.080 0.548 0.564 92.584
12 Oregon 1.191 1.706 1.136 0.388 -0.652 0.706 0.045 0.333 0.691 0.460 88.171
13 BYU 1.191 -0.340 -0.058 0.790 3.021 0.530 2.256 0.505 1.274 -0.341 86.159
14 Miami (FL) 0.813 1.368 0.282 0.726 1.345 0.593 0.700 0.228 0.601 0.493 84.008
15 Iowa 1.254 0.465 1.953 0.589 -0.292 1.359 -0.532 1.386 -0.822 0.553 82.848
16 Oregon St. 0.813 0.915 -0.072 1.136 1.373 0.417 1.006 0.413 0.749 0.662 77.818
17 Nebraska 0.813 -0.022 2.099 1.124 0.019 1.453 -0.036 2.148 -0.569 1.162 77.783
18 North Carolina 0.813 0.717 1.720 1.231 -0.289 1.796 -1.295 1.326 -1.418 1.914 76.223
19 Oklahoma St. 1.191 -0.054 0.670 1.504 0.344 0.662 0.734 0.545 0.377 0.954 74.579
20 Arizona 0.284 1.460 0.343 0.824 0.926 0.767 0.237 0.089 0.890 0.725 66.317
21 Clemson 0.813 0.658 1.082 0.470 -0.169 1.180 0.139 0.995 -0.135 0.380 65.906
22 LSU 0.813 0.951 0.956 0.335 -0.051 0.738 0.075 1.498 -1.209 0.336 65.098
23 Mississippi 0.813 0.178 1.294 0.536 0.132 0.935 -0.071 1.233 0.496 1.982 63.929
24 Oklahoma 0.057 0.690 1.325 1.310 0.097 1.328 0.115 1.498 0.783 0.928 62.207
25 Southern California 0.699 1.586 0.982 0.273 -0.961 0.302 0.070 0.483 0.371 0.331 62.049
26 Utah 1.191 -0.412 1.445 0.118 0.147 0.800 0.415 0.863 0.332 1.461 61.910
27 West Virginia 0.699 0.568 0.548 0.612 0.813 0.397 0.477 0.556 0.251 0.762 60.767
28 California 0.813 1.300 -0.175 0.830 -0.156 -0.103 0.131 0.306 0.512 0.164 56.718
29 Wisconsin 0.813 0.012 -0.367 1.166 1.100 0.790 0.454 0.213 0.424 0.331 53.158
30 Navy 0.813 -0.196 0.147 0.312 1.483 0.455 0.746 0.572 -0.433 0.725 48.911
31 Central Mich. 1.191 -1.752 0.541 0.642 1.273 0.585 1.439 1.220 0.566 0.479 47.372
32 Stanford 0.435 1.303 -0.334 -0.014 1.143 -0.481 0.716 -0.011 0.994 -0.565 46.148
33 Texas Tech 0.435 0.190 0.547 0.475 0.300 0.263 0.902 0.359 1.574 -0.056 42.952
34 Auburn 0.435 0.656 0.877 -0.521 0.236 0.091 1.069 -0.289 1.080 0.954 42.257
35 South Fla. 0.699 -0.367 0.899 0.435 -0.129 0.790 0.858 0.818 -0.020 -0.079 41.992
36 Tennessee 0.057 0.604 1.406 0.141 -0.113 0.895 0.333 0.624 0.213 0.801 41.503
37 South Carolina 0.057 1.298 0.555 0.052 -0.192 0.973 -0.298 0.624 -0.377 0.217 37.842
38 Missouri 0.435 0.343 -0.056 1.083 -0.516 0.412 0.709 0.254 0.451 -0.243 34.577
39 Boston College 0.435 0.568 0.706 0.906 -1.591 0.738 -0.749 0.783 -0.966 0.889 29.449
40 Georgia 0.057 1.264 -0.611 0.623 -0.256 0.647 0.206 -0.237 -0.371 0.757 27.542
41 Air Force 0.215 -0.579 0.905 0.261 0.569 1.392 -0.406 1.411 -0.389 1.526 27.426
42 UCLA 0.057 1.375 0.481 0.037 -0.920 0.452 -0.717 0.637 -0.647 0.993 25.891
43 UCF 0.435 -0.545 -0.326 1.766 0.019 0.569 0.289 0.717 -0.661 -0.420 23.825
44 Arkansas 0.435 0.854 -0.817 -0.071 -0.567 -0.775 1.841 -0.011 1.144 0.481 23.575
45 Northwestern 0.561 -0.876 -0.016 0.554 1.309 0.352 0.149 0.245 0.128 0.762 23.393
46 Notre Dame 0.057 0.861 -0.341 -0.301 0.178 -0.427 1.533 0.121 1.264 0.138 22.527
47 Nevada 0.813 -1.000 -1.618 0.866 2.197 -0.559 0.600 -0.091 2.673 0.307 22.323
48 East Carolina 0.435 0.018 -0.004 0.447 0.306 -0.030 -0.465 0.532 -0.374 -0.112 18.609
49 Kentucky 0.435 0.352 1.012 -0.743 -0.044 0.158 -1.048 0.413 -0.613 -0.009 18.173
50 Temple 1.191 -1.815 0.368 1.024 -0.384 0.754 -0.577 0.665 -0.764 0.500 17.228
51 Houston 1.191 -0.982 -0.489 -1.597 1.695 -1.521 1.762 -0.620 3.358 -0.720 16.738
52 Florida St. 0.057 1.449 -1.318 -1.072 1.337 -1.224 0.905 -0.752 0.965 -0.464 10.468
53 Rutgers 0.699 -1.369 0.474 0.875 -0.905 0.835 -0.346 1.153 -0.934 1.078 9.660
54 Arizona St. -0.698 0.965 0.825 0.918 -1.313 1.116 -1.018 0.558 -0.710 1.331 7.137
55 Texas A&M 0.057 0.063 -0.410 -0.231 1.641 -0.907 0.348 -0.898 1.386 0.468 6.387
56 Connecticut -0.132 0.958 -0.802 0.335 -0.156 -0.180 -0.244 0.119 0.457 0.275 5.791
57 Michigan St. -0.132 0.368 -0.738 0.804 -0.562 0.001 0.981 -0.010 0.490 -0.656 4.052
58 Fresno St. 0.435 -0.281 -0.193 -1.263 0.984 -0.610 0.655 -0.091 1.016 0.028 3.832
59 Southern Miss. 0.435 -1.282 -0.231 0.707 0.068 -0.322 1.426 0.082 0.665 -0.091 2.943
60 Wake Forest -0.698 1.291 -0.173 -0.599 0.627 -0.213 0.654 -0.078 0.278 -0.570 2.087
61 Minnesota -0.132 1.053 0.207 0.015 -0.771 0.002 -0.982 0.063 -1.421 -0.975 0.691
62 Kansas -0.321 0.300 -0.224 0.447 0.306 -0.060 0.147 -0.329 0.559 -0.223 0.582
63 Troy 0.813 -1.216 -0.740 0.183 0.127 -0.706 0.897 -0.487 1.663 0.064 -0.060
64 Northern Ill. 0.435 -2.491 -0.122 0.940 0.934 1.005 0.520 0.876 -0.386 0.118 -3.615
65 Middle Tenn. 0.813 -1.966 0.885 0.221 -0.978 0.253 -0.319 0.241 0.877 0.926 -3.652
66 Idaho 0.435 -0.497 -1.501 -0.176 1.579 -0.869 1.292 -1.309 1.127 -2.686 -4.399
67 Marshall 0.057 -0.083 0.301 -0.102 -0.128 -0.179 -0.676 0.373 -0.616 -0.248 -4.487
68 Purdue -0.478 0.507 0.613 -0.607 0.387 -0.213 -0.053 -0.592 0.219 -0.301 -5.132
69 Ohio 0.813 -1.784 0.897 0.084 -1.029 0.259 -0.351 0.465 -1.115 0.535 -6.656
70 Washington -0.963 2.373 -1.391 -0.430 1.419 -0.999 -0.303 -0.872 -0.350 -0.832 -7.597
71 La.-Monroe 0.057 -1.644 0.257 1.035 0.668 0.239 -0.037 -0.196 0.271 0.064 -8.282
72 Kansas St. -0.132 -0.069 -0.367 0.974 -0.965 0.428 -0.654 0.245 -0.502 -0.362 -9.791
73 Duke -0.321 0.305 0.004 -0.183 -0.547 0.134 0.257 -0.263 -0.308 -1.051 -11.201
74 Bowling Green 0.057 -0.655 0.176 -1.128 0.768 -0.368 0.193 -0.196 0.381 0.754 -13.309
75 North Carolina St. -0.698 -0.004 -0.702 0.234 0.946 0.245 0.566 -0.952 0.354 -0.885 -17.390
76 Virginia -1.076 1.690 0.905 -0.354 -1.269 0.302 -1.598 0.015 -1.912 0.581 -17.898
77 Mississippi St. -0.698 1.440 -0.122 -0.088 -1.624 0.002 -1.235 -0.250 -0.177 0.460 -19.548
78 Iowa St. -0.132 -0.081 -0.528 -0.512 0.201 -0.873 -0.903 0.355 -0.329 -0.028 -26.321
79 Syracuse -0.698 0.663 -1.473 1.274 -1.548 0.542 -0.358 -0.050 -1.075 0.785 -26.509
80 Louisiana Tech -1.076 0.111 0.505 -0.648 0.497 -0.135 0.016 -0.183 -0.189 0.305 -29.324
81 SMU 0.057 -0.265 0.401 -0.593 -1.847 -0.786 0.074 -0.700 -0.079 -0.607 -29.416
82 Louisville -0.698 0.753 -0.869 -0.257 -0.374 -0.068 -0.867 -0.078 -0.714 -0.207 -31.204
83 Buffalo -0.698 -1.131 0.221 0.354 0.420 0.088 0.126 -0.050 0.594 -1.151 -31.621
84 Hawaii -0.321 -1.038 -0.554 -0.961 1.059 -0.574 0.228 -0.528 1.375 -0.864 -38.077
85 San Diego St. -0.698 -0.205 -0.210 -0.512 0.499 -0.284 -0.185 -0.833 -0.791 -1.429 -38.472
86 Baylor -0.698 0.557 0.144 -0.897 -0.879 -0.779 -0.453 -0.422 -0.611 -1.160 -39.171
87 Michigan -0.478 -0.488 -0.318 -0.572 -0.042 -0.506 -0.317 -0.362 0.102 0.319 -39.754
88 Wyoming -0.321 0.365 -0.276 -0.546 -1.162 -0.615 -1.524 -0.474 -1.270 -0.181 -40.714
89 Illinois -0.963 0.377 -0.521 -0.292 -0.003 -0.628 -0.968 -0.144 -0.151 -1.005 -44.211
90 Tulsa -0.698 -0.871 -0.772 0.263 -0.281 -0.629 0.768 -0.302 0.532 0.558 -45.131
91 Colorado -1.076 0.730 -0.302 -0.358 -0.815 -0.208 -1.392 -0.567 -1.242 0.808 -47.936
92 UAB -0.321 -0.434 -1.540 0.215 -0.590 -1.619 0.848 -1.044 0.655 -1.325 -48.671
93 Indiana -0.824 -0.011 -0.699 -0.273 -0.154 -0.640 -0.291 -0.653 -0.233 -1.501 -48.831
94 Kent St. -0.321 -1.683 0.470 0.242 -1.561 0.089 -0.714 0.200 -0.611 0.074 -51.358
95 Toledo -0.321 -1.318 -0.192 -0.464 0.101 -0.941 0.247 -1.839 0.946 -1.237 -51.589
96 La.-Lafayette 0.057 -1.854 -0.489 -0.724 0.467 -0.526 -0.664 -0.541 -0.603 -1.264 -54.151
97 Maryland -1.454 1.035 -0.946 -0.134 -0.366 -0.628 -0.812 -1.070 -1.005 -0.091 -56.942
98 Vanderbilt -1.517 0.942 0.536 -1.174 -0.756 0.029 -2.320 0.245 -1.241 0.111 -57.683
99 Colorado St. -1.076 0.323 -0.909 -0.229 -0.897 -0.655 -0.108 -0.872 -0.478 -2.883 -60.849
100 Western Mich. -0.321 -1.500 -0.568 -0.770 0.262 -1.259 -0.198 -0.435 0.042 -0.227 -61.661
101 UNLV -0.698 0.192 -1.496 -1.950 1.158 -1.623 -0.551 -1.189 -0.541 -2.137 -67.673
102 Army -0.321 -2.183 0.250 -0.033 -1.657 0.952 -1.727 0.387 -1.636 -0.134 -68.550
103 Utah St. -1.076 -0.099 -0.311 -1.502 -0.646 -1.467 0.189 -1.111 0.888 -0.700 -71.395
104 Miami (OH) -1.863 0.248 -0.574 -0.921 -0.166 -0.226 -1.006 -1.334 -0.602 -0.299 -84.501
105 Fla. Atlantic -0.963 -0.860 -1.549 -1.799 1.008 -1.716 0.326 -1.615 0.973 -0.575 -86.903
106 Arkansas St. -1.379 -1.338 -0.639 0.586 -1.468 0.087 -0.685 0.250 -0.980 -0.720 -87.278
107 UTEP -1.076 -0.939 -0.816 -1.360 0.356 -1.370 -0.636 -1.402 0.610 -1.028 -89.070
108 Akron -1.454 -0.619 -0.329 -0.572 -1.376 -0.133 -0.890 -0.646 -1.348 -1.603 -91.719
109 North Texas -1.454 -1.734 -0.196 -1.020 0.668 -0.725 -0.167 -1.613 0.736 0.331 -93.625
110 Tulane -1.076 -0.457 -2.044 -1.388 0.528 -0.987 -0.586 -1.839 -1.186 -2.010 -96.676
111 Memphis -1.454 -0.250 -1.842 -0.677 -0.677 -1.694 -0.675 -1.455 -0.077 -0.060 -104.874
112 FIU -1.076 -0.475 -0.919 -2.087 -0.820 -2.360 -1.330 -1.600 -1.170 -0.774 -115.386
113 New Mexico -1.832 -0.229 -1.499 -0.333 -1.387 -0.925 -1.082 -1.389 -0.863 -1.721 -115.652
114 San Jose St. -1.794 0.703 -0.330 -2.859 -1.343 -1.800 -1.022 -1.440 -1.714 -1.373 -116.761
115 New Mexico St. -1.076 -1.031 0.053 -1.850 -1.512 -1.052 -2.808 -1.070 -2.487 -0.950 -119.479
116 Rice -1.454 -0.259 -2.087 -0.942 -1.265 -1.392 -1.518 -2.235 -1.384 -0.880 -125.561
117 Washington St. -1.832 1.861 -1.551 -2.011 -2.817 -2.662 -1.448 -2.077 -2.099 -0.552 -125.727
118 Ball St. -1.832 -1.286 -1.773 -0.208 -0.808 -0.268 -1.974 -0.607 -1.350 0.034 -128.809
119 Eastern Mich. -2.210 -0.781 -0.837 -3.188 -0.746 -1.279 -1.629 -2.063 -1.787 -1.264 -163.052
120 Western Ky. -2.210 -1.063 -2.578 -2.796 -1.540 -2.485 -1.303 -2.503 -0.908 -2.499 -198.507

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