Tennessee bowl projections: where are we going and who are we playing?
by Joel on Nov 29, 2009 7:37 AM EST
in Tennessee Volunteer Football
42 comments
So I can't find the poll right now, but if I remember right, most Vol fans thought before the season that either 8-4 or 7-5 would be a "successful" season in the Kiffin Chimera's first year. It didn't quite play out the way many of us thought it would. In making our predictions, most of us counted wins against UCLA and Auburn, and we didn't get those, but we did run the table in the toss up games against Georgia and South Carolina. Really, though, that loss to the Bruins is the one that kept us from reaching 8-4.
Still, we finished second the East, and who would've predicted that? Not only that, but only three teams in the SEC finished with better records, although we probably should call that four because of the head-to-head loss to Ole Miss. Hey, if we're going to take it against Georgia, we ought to give it against the Rebels.
So now the question is where we're going bowling. Will's broken this down before, and he's much more knowledgeable on the subject than am I, but he's on the road back from Lexington and has important stuff like responsibilities and things to handle today, so you're stuck with me. And the way I roll is to pawn the entire question off to you.
So. Whattaya think? Who's going where? Alabama and Florida are obviously the cream that will be skimmed off the top. LSU is next with a 5-3 finish. After that is Ole Miss with a 4-4 record in the SEC and the tiebreaker over Tennessee plus an actual 8-4 overall record. So that's four teams gone.
Then there are six (six!) SEC teams with a 7-5 record. Tennessee and Georgia have the best SEC records, but the Vols have the head-to-head win over the Bulldogs, and let's be honest: Tennessee's a sexier team right now because it's headed in the right direction.
Tennessee's therefore the fifth-best SEC team, right? Or is it? Auburn's got a worse SEC record, but an identical overall record, and they stomped us. Arkansas is about the same, except we didn't play them. So maybe we're fifth- to seventh-best.
So I ask you: looking at the SEC bowl tie-ins, where do you think we'll be going and who do you think we'll play?
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Outback, I think
So the SEC is in a hot mess with six 7-5 teams; the only thing we can do is to try to get into the minds of the bowl committees. Let’s start with the Outback as that is the best case scenario for the Orange and White:
Outback: Pros: We have been getting tons of media coverage since Day 1 of Kiffin’s reign and you know that will continue. Also, we have a legitimate claim as the #2 team from the East. Cons: This would be our third trip to the Outback in four years AND it would likely result in a rematch against Wisconsin. Best Bet: Tenn. or Auburn
Peach…er…Chick-fil-a Bowl: Pros: See above, if we don’t get the Outback it seems like we’d be a lock for the Eat Mor Chikin Bowl. Cons: Location could play a part in this selection, as you have a team from Athens just down the road. Best Bet: Tenn/Auburn, with a chance of UGA
The Tennessee Bowls (AKA Liberty and Music City Bowls): While most projections don’t put us this low, we must think about an Auburn/UGA apocalypse scenario. I feel that the Music City Bowl would be a better fit for us, and the Liberty for Arkansas, just because of proximity.
Let’s just hope Outback asks us to the big dance, and have our Big Orange Tuxedos ready to go (think Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber).
So Sayth King Zach I
by kingofzachland on Nov 29, 2009 10:19 AM EST reply actions
nah, UK has Music City and Liberty on Lockdown
RIP Steve McNair (1973 - 2009) Retire #9!
Hard-on for Hardesty!
by Pride of the Southland on Nov 29, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
You're right
…but years of being passed over by the best bowls has made me expect the Worst-Case-Scenario. Thankfully, the national media like Kiffin (or at least like talking about him) much more than they did ol’ Phil. That should help in our placement.
So Sayth King Zach I
by kingofzachland on Nov 29, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
That poll
Out of 667 (!!) responses, 40% pegged 8-4 for ‘successful’, 31% said 9-3, and 16% said 7-5. All in all, the season should probably be chalked up as a little in the disappointing side, but not egregiously so. The early season troubles killed the team, but the back half of the season went just about as well as could be hoped. If we had either had (a) a healthy wide receiver corps in the first half, or (b) a field goal kicker, we’d be looking at 8-4 or 9-3 right now. (With standard conditionals: injuries part of the game; observations, not excuses; etc.)
Here's how it shakes out:
LSU goes Cap One.
Ole Miss Dexter McCluster goes Cotton.
Then we have a 6-way tie. Records among the tied teams:
UT: 3-1
Arkansas: 2-1
UGA: 3-2
Kentucky: 2-2
Auburn: 1-3
USC: 1-3
The above won’t matter. I’m only using it to justify us being ahead of Auburn. Anyways, here’s how it should go:
Everybody wants an excited UT fan base and the media attention that will come from Kiffin. Tennesseegets the Outback.
Georgia and USC have been disappointing, UK doesn’t have a rep. The Peach will want Auburn or Arkansas and will take Auburn
The Liberty will take Arkansas based on geography.
The Music City doesn’t pass up a chance for Georgia, even a disappointed Georgia.
Shreveport and B’ham fight over USC and UK. I don’t know or care which one selects first.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 29, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions
The only hitch I can see to UT getting the Outback
is if the Outback somehow gets Ole Miss. That could happen if (a) somehow in the arcane clauses of bowl selections, the Outback decides to get Ole Miss outright rather than get UT for 3/4 years, or (b) if the Cotton Bowl decides they don’t want a repeat Ole Miss visit so they go for Auburn or Arkansas instead.
The only problem with Ole Miss to the Outback is that it pretty well sends 3 West teams to the 3 mid-tier SEC bowls, which is something the three bowls are strongly discouraged from doing. I don’t see this happening, but such a selection would make for a huge problem for Tennessee.
If the Cotton wants to avoid picking Ole Miss again
They could, in theory, switch with the Outback. Let the Cotton take UT (which they’ve done before) and send Ole Miss to Tampa (which they’ve not done before, but the Outback did back in ’97).
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 29, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
I'd be fine with that.
The Cotton is a long trip from K’ville, but I have no doubt UT fans would be more than happy to make the trek. It’d also put UT up against a Big12 team (Nebraska? OSU?), which would be a refreshing change from the land o’ Big Ten bowls.
Cotton? Leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
This is not scientific and probably won’t make much sense, but the last time we played in the Cotton Bowl, (1) it snowed and (2) Kansas State handed us our frozen tundras. If you ever wondered what it was like to be shamefully whipped in Dallas by a team wearing purple, dig up that game film. Not pretty.
If the bowl game were just about the game itself, Dallas would be fine. I could even stay home and watch on the television. But there is life outside the stadium and I believe Tampa might prove to be a little more lively. And remember, snow, and purple. Never a good thing.
Now, where is that bottle of Scotch?
Somebody forgot about the TAMU BEATDOWN
Good memories.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 29, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
Ole Miss to Cotton
ESPN reported a few minutes ago that the Cotton Bowl has selected Ole Miss and Oklahoma State.
I suppose LSU to the Cotton isn't happening?
I could see a LSU to the Cotton, Ole Miss to the Capital One, and Tennessee to the Outback scenario happening, too.
Simulated Gameday Experience - just like the real thing, only we have smoke machines.
That's true, too.
I just think it’s hard for the Cap 1 to pass a 9-win LSU team who won their last game in favor of an 8-win Miss team who lost their last one.
I randomly had a beer with an outback bowl rep Friday night
who told me that the DO NOT want to take a West division team, as they don’t travel as well. He told me the UK/Tenn winner would almost certainly get the invite vs. Iowa/Penn State/Wisconsin (depending on BCS selections).
Looks like we’re Outback Bowl bound.
Cannons... fire them.
www.BucEm.com - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
He also told me what makes Tennessee such an attractive option
is that we didn’t go to a bowl last year and will likely travel well.
Cannons... fire them.
www.BucEm.com - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That's a really good point.
Look at all the money we saved on bowl travel last year! Spend spend spend!
Outback rep says . . .
Either you or your Outback Bowl rep are very poorly informed.
by Disinterested Par-tay on Nov 30, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe its hope more then using my brain
but I think that the cotton bowl is pretty viable for us. We are a sexier team. Yes Ole Miss beat us BUT Ole Miss performed below expectations so maybe their fanbase won’t be so thrilled about traveling. We on the other hand are thrilled to be bowling this year. We would make a trip to Dallas. Maybe they will take into consideration what we were going through the week that Ole Miss slammed us. Honestly I am just glad to be talking about bowling again. Glad that we are talking new Year’s bowls and not Shreveport or Nashville.
Kentucky bretheren united once again! Thanks Cal!
I'd love to see us in the Cotton
but there are enough viable teams from the West that I don’t think they can justify taking an East team. Like it or not, I think they’re stuck with Ole Miss.
outback or cotton, both good options
weve put ourselves in good position…honest;y, if you would have told me after the auburn game we would finish 7-5, I’d have done a backflip
anyway
did anyone notice how much improved the d looked with janzen back?? we looked far more competant than in recent weeks. that sack was legendary
Outback/Cotton Switch?
Chris Low of The Network that Shall Go Unnamed feels that a switch is somewhat likely.
I’ll say that even if we didn’t finish 8-4, I think we would have considered a New Year’s Day bowl a major step forward preseason. And yes, we looked much better with Jackson, so glad we get to watch him play for a couple more seasons!
So Sayth King Zach I
I'd be pleased with either bowl
but certainly happier with the Outback, being 10 minutes from my house. I just don’t see that switcheroo for matchup purposes because the Cotton/Outback would do better with ticket sales with their respective West/East teams.
Cannons... fire them.
www.BucEm.com - SBNation's home for discussion of all things regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Low is valuing the negative of back-to-back appearances more than East-West affiliations.
I don’t have a terrific handle on that, but I don’t think it’s a big enough deal to send UT to the Cotton. Had Ole Miss been to the Cotton twice in a row, or had UT been to the Outback last year, I’d see that as more likely.
But like Craig T pointed out earlier, the Vols should be a very lucrative team to bring in, which would seriously disincentive the Outback from that switch.
I'm not sure either, but I'd love the Cotton.
That’d be a likely matchup with Nebraska and their excellent defense. Another matchup against Wisconsin is the definition of unexciting for me; give me Nebraska.
Simulated Gameday Experience - just like the real thing, only we have smoke machines.
Eh, just replace the 'N' with a 'W'
I have a different incentive to play Wisconsin: most of my family (father, mother, step-mother, sister, and several cousins) went to UW and I’m tired of explaining to them how much better UT and the SEC are. I don’t think they quite got the message under Fulmer, maybe Kiffin will give them a more thorough tutorial on SEC football.
So Sayth King Zach I
by kingofzachland on Nov 29, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Can't spell Outback without UT
meh, I’m cool with that this year. Tampa it is.
Neyland Stadium-It goes to eleven.
Speaking of which - "Hey Steve, how does fifth place in the SEC East feel?"
“Let us know when South Carolina is relevant again”
“I wish I had a job in which I could take the entire month of November off during league play to work on my golf game.”
“Steve, I’d give you credit for beating Clemson in the month of November, but – hey, it’s the ACC and they don’t play football over there.”
And, my favorite, “Hey Steve, fill ’er up!”
Can't spell Outback without UT
Tampa it isn’t. Maybe Atlanta. Maybe Orlando for Champs bowl, but not Tampa this year.
by Disinterested Par-tay on Nov 30, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
Watch out for
South Carolina sneaking past Georgia for the Chick-Fil-A. Even with location, I’d give even money on which team would travel better, and I know SCar fans would be happier to be there. Plus, that bowl knows they’ll get good turnout from VT.
What about Auburn?
I know Georgia beat them, but their record is identical and they should be happy with 7-5 in a rebuilding year, unlike those other two.
by Incipient_Senescence on Nov 29, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
In any case, the Chik-Fil-A bowl is going to make a lot of fans unhappy.
Just between those three schools, at least two will get the cold shoulder. And Arky fans will probably claim they were slighted as well, though there’s little expectation for them to travel as well as the others.
I have to say I’d LOVE to go to the Cotton Bowl… so much so that I’d travel to the game from New Jersey. Outback, not so much.
LOVE to go to Cotton Bowl
Cotton Bowl isn’t an option either. No Outback. No Cotton for the Vols.
by Disinterested Par-tay on Nov 30, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
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