College BlogPoll: Week 13 Draft

by David Hooper on Nov 29, 2009 1:30 PM EST in College Football

Here is the draft for the week 13 BlogPoll. As always, the draft is simply the computer ranking without any adjustments; manual tweaks may be applied prior to the final draft. For this week, the W/L weight was increased to 30, and SOS decreased to 10. This is a change that fits a pattern observed in the previous 2 to 3 weeks. Explanations and the full chart are after the jump.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	TCU	2
3	Alabama
4	Texas	2
5	Boise State	1
6	Penn State	9
7	Cincinnati	2
8	Ohio State
9	Brigham Young	5
10	Virginia Tech
11	Georgia Tech	4
12	Iowa	1
13	Miami (Florida)	1
14	Oregon	3
15	Pittsburgh	6
16	Nebraska	1
17	Oregon State	1
18	Central Michigan
19	LSU	5
20	Oklahoma
21	Oklahoma State	2
22	West Virginia
23	Southern Cal	2
24	North Carolina	6
25	Utah	3
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Arizona (#20), Mississippi (#21), Clemson (#23).

Observations:

TCU #2. As you'll see in the raw numbers below, the numerical differences between TCU, Texas, and Alabama are negligible. TCU should remain ahead of the UF/Bama loser next week, but will probably slip behind Texas if they win. The odds are in favor of TCU being #3 when it matters.
Penn State. Still the object of unrequited affection by my computer. PSU will be manually dropped, for sure. But how far?
Oregon. I sorta feel like they should be higher up - maybe 10ish. Thoughts?
Oklahoma. Yeah, they'll get spiked. It's that 'cpu loves defense' thing. They're gone.
Anything else?

Raw Data

Here is the data in Excel 2003 form and in Excel 2007 form. The numbers in static table form follow below. What you'll notice is that the top 4 are clearly above everybody else. Otherwise, there is a lot of clumping and flexibility to manually tweak things. I'll be particularly reliant on feedback this week because my end-of-semester projects are all coming due and I don't think I'll have time to sift through it myself.

Untitled Document

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Florida	2.009	0.537	2.233	1.418	1.738	2.380	2.144	2.306	1.265	2.305	180.252
2	TCU	2.009	-0.468	2.105	1.648	0.684	2.377	1.932	1.917	1.575	2.320	157.584
3	Alabama	2.009	0.832	2.361	1.731	-0.363	2.365	0.484	2.156	0.499	1.813	156.833
4	Texas	2.009	0.292	1.235	2.105	1.344	1.840	1.123	1.466	1.270	1.891	155.592
5	Boise St.	2.009	-0.720	1.223	0.549	-0.091	1.022	2.162	0.991	1.303	1.117	112.916
6	Penn St.	1.297	-0.492	1.302	1.321	1.685	1.590	0.889	2.005	0.587	1.211	111.664
7	Cincinnati	2.009	-0.309	0.507	0.288	0.557	0.306	2.507	0.982	1.639	0.145	109.499
8	Ohio St.	1.297	0.044	1.719	1.577	0.147	1.852	-0.116	1.954	-0.244	1.317	105.776
9	BYU	1.297	-0.211	0.251	0.880	2.675	0.620	1.897	0.526	1.016	-0.015	100.765
10	Virginia Tech	0.941	1.432	1.761	0.230	0.330	1.177	1.224	1.416	0.164	0.714	100.014
11	Georgia Tech	1.297	1.224	-0.703	0.303	2.193	0.239	1.845	0.164	1.076	-0.280	93.356
12	Iowa	1.297	0.329	2.009	0.636	-0.274	1.417	-0.529	1.454	-0.839	0.553	89.561
13	Miami (FL)	0.941	1.244	0.391	0.726	1.346	0.796	0.702	0.427	0.587	0.457	87.180
14	Oregon	1.232	1.623	1.174	0.426	-0.648	0.747	0.048	0.367	0.698	0.457	86.786
15	Pittsburgh	1.232	0.196	0.345	0.880	0.516	0.825	1.397	1.119	0.417	0.307	85.330
16	Nebraska	0.941	-0.014	2.048	1.126	-0.055	1.332	-0.026	2.118	-0.769	1.009	84.970
17	Oregon St.	0.844	0.830	-0.060	1.210	1.459	0.450	1.008	0.450	0.756	0.666	79.299
18	Central Mich.	1.297	-1.690	0.506	0.679	1.738	0.621	1.313	1.104	0.717	0.513	73.704
19	LSU	0.941	1.224	1.074	0.339	-0.111	0.701	0.154	1.379	-1.207	0.384	73.023
20	Oklahoma	0.229	0.770	1.530	1.451	-0.142	1.654	-0.005	1.754	0.708	1.383	70.255
21	Oklahoma St.	0.941	0.312	0.738	1.473	-0.221	0.641	0.337	0.514	-0.045	1.149	69.572
22	West Virginia	0.844	0.535	0.645	0.605	0.929	0.456	0.269	0.668	0.212	1.045	68.358
23	Southern California	0.844	1.505	1.236	0.308	-0.984	0.373	0.122	0.723	0.271	0.426	65.497
24	North Carolina	0.585	0.557	1.315	1.347	-0.467	1.757	-0.868	1.240	-1.177	1.893	64.102
25	Utah	0.941	-0.176	1.533	0.165	-0.152	0.923	0.023	0.827	0.187	1.445	62.315
26	Wisconsin	0.844	-0.103	-0.361	1.241	1.175	0.833	0.457	0.244	0.426	0.324	59.731
27	Arizona	0.455	1.346	0.329	0.940	0.405	0.838	-0.061	0.217	0.637	1.049	59.422
28	Mississippi	0.585	0.495	1.242	0.189	0.114	0.831	0.072	0.991	0.467	1.483	57.681
29	California	0.844	1.171	-0.166	0.889	-0.132	-0.084	0.134	0.340	0.515	0.150	54.422
30	Tennessee	0.229	0.941	1.540	0.126	0.027	1.019	0.363	0.627	0.289	0.865	52.569
31	Clemson	0.585	0.777	0.947	0.317	-0.351	1.097	-0.092	0.853	-0.303	0.364	52.295
32	Texas Tech	0.585	0.181	0.582	0.563	0.203	0.302	0.782	0.514	1.447	-0.207	49.970
33	South Carolina	0.229	1.532	0.717	0.270	-0.190	1.094	-0.217	0.714	-0.342	0.407	45.453
34	Stanford	0.585	1.242	-0.740	0.088	1.325	-0.555	0.856	-0.150	1.092	-0.579	43.677
35	Navy	0.585	-0.324	-0.081	0.492	1.336	0.355	0.720	0.578	-0.470	0.584	41.928
36	Auburn	0.229	1.251	0.746	-0.331	0.173	0.217	0.981	-0.263	0.934	0.936	40.571
37	Houston	1.297	-1.208	-0.147	-1.711	1.738	-1.430	1.858	-0.425	3.567	-0.322	37.324
38	Missouri	0.585	0.334	-0.297	1.260	-0.524	0.136	0.629	0.089	0.669	-0.560	36.582
39	South Fla.	0.455	-0.229	0.813	0.228	-0.116	0.699	0.649	0.710	-0.275	-0.159	35.257
40	Boston College	0.585	0.356	0.666	1.065	-1.683	0.847	-0.566	0.865	-0.941	1.075	34.410
41	Northwestern	0.585	-0.957	-0.003	0.600	1.392	0.383	0.152	0.277	0.125	0.770	33.822
42	Air Force	0.229	-0.712	0.939	0.293	0.622	1.452	-0.403	1.479	-0.400	1.561	33.072
43	Rutgers	0.844	-1.334	0.441	1.073	-0.818	0.904	-0.241	1.255	-0.830	1.213	32.513
44	Georgia	0.229	1.660	-0.623	0.500	-0.175	0.668	0.192	-0.187	-0.297	0.486	30.776
45	UCF	0.585	-0.574	-0.438	1.599	-0.163	0.314	0.201	0.677	-0.538	-0.458	28.276
46	Nevada	0.585	-0.437	-1.681	0.815	1.912	-0.599	0.669	-0.300	2.491	0.083	26.998
47	East Carolina	0.585	-0.147	0.106	0.415	0.474	-0.103	-0.493	0.590	-0.262	-0.099	26.814
48	Ohio	0.941	-1.562	1.256	-0.120	-1.148	0.245	0.127	0.564	-0.876	0.644	21.746
49	Middle Tenn.	0.941	-1.845	0.949	0.248	-1.083	0.252	-0.351	0.327	0.707	0.914	19.470
50	Arkansas	0.229	1.346	-0.845	-0.048	-0.616	-0.651	1.473	-0.087	1.056	0.519	17.093
51	Temple	0.941	-1.620	-0.044	0.957	-0.525	0.537	-1.157	0.526	-0.717	0.637	17.082
52	Troy	0.941	-1.212	-0.829	0.193	0.173	-0.940	0.998	-0.512	1.739	0.065	15.745
53	UCLA	-0.127	1.561	0.407	0.090	-0.979	0.490	-0.976	0.590	-0.689	1.009	10.824
54	Fresno St.	0.455	-0.204	-0.184	-1.306	1.053	-0.605	0.658	-0.070	1.028	0.010	10.373
55	Kentucky	0.229	0.593	0.908	-0.855	-0.147	0.048	-1.213	0.352	-0.746	-0.145	8.315
56	Notre Dame	-0.127	0.952	-0.485	-0.540	0.203	-0.578	1.814	-0.112	1.272	-0.114	7.570
57	Southern Miss.	0.229	-1.137	-0.149	0.648	0.092	-0.397	1.105	0.101	0.688	-0.291	5.582
58	Northern Ill.	0.229	-2.065	-0.146	0.699	0.846	0.747	0.479	0.602	-0.432	-0.482	4.634
59	Texas A&M	-0.127	0.482	-0.531	-0.500	1.830	-1.181	0.633	-1.127	1.509	0.397	1.419
60	Connecticut	0.067	0.646	-1.033	0.379	-0.036	-0.350	-0.136	0.053	0.415	0.178	0.410
61	Michigan St.	-0.127	0.188	-0.741	0.862	-0.554	0.022	0.984	0.014	0.493	-0.699	-0.267
62	Wake Forest	-0.483	1.091	-0.264	-0.396	0.711	-0.314	0.977	-0.162	0.429	-0.619	-1.726
63	Bowling Green	0.229	-0.816	0.221	-1.089	0.838	-0.506	0.153	-0.150	0.220	0.559	-4.783
64	Arizona St.	-0.839	1.020	1.039	0.963	-1.552	1.221	-0.947	0.615	-0.775	1.680	-5.195
65	La.-Monroe	-0.127	-1.531	0.302	0.927	0.575	0.334	-0.204	-0.324	0.235	0.222	-5.273
66	Kansas	-0.483	0.413	-0.198	0.240	0.614	-0.317	0.354	-0.488	0.761	-0.187	-7.650
67	Minnesota	-0.127	0.881	0.225	0.035	-0.772	0.024	-0.979	0.089	-1.449	-1.029	-8.052
68	Kansas St.	-0.127	-0.027	-0.362	1.040	-0.973	0.461	-0.650	0.277	-0.515	-0.395	-8.543
69	Idaho	0.229	-0.550	-1.763	-0.183	1.443	-1.058	1.454	-1.552	1.265	-2.504	-11.811
70	Purdue	-0.483	0.374	0.639	-0.618	0.433	-0.198	-0.050	-0.587	0.218	-0.331	-12.362
71	Washington	-0.710	1.804	-0.945	-0.168	1.361	-0.582	-0.314	-0.452	-0.197	-0.670	-13.651
72	Florida St.	-0.127	1.700	-1.589	-1.345	1.035	-1.401	0.735	-0.838	0.734	-1.058	-14.160
73	Marshall	-0.127	-0.244	-0.205	0.073	0.320	-0.483	-0.632	0.038	-0.412	-0.163	-15.075
74	North Carolina St.	-0.483	0.046	-1.016	0.220	0.850	0.078	0.810	-0.901	0.262	-0.663	-17.045
75	Mississippi St.	-0.483	1.545	-0.251	0.051	-1.114	-0.008	-1.111	-0.237	-0.121	0.457	-18.266
76	Buffalo	-0.483	-1.201	0.377	0.398	0.338	0.412	-0.134	0.214	0.464	-0.728	-18.416
77	Hawaii	-0.127	-0.849	-0.556	-1.109	1.118	-0.476	0.358	-0.375	1.348	-0.710	-22.916
78	SMU	0.229	-0.661	0.254	-0.514	-1.798	-0.690	0.046	-0.587	0.019	-0.743	-25.346
79	Iowa St.	-0.127	-0.120	-0.526	-0.518	0.239	-0.876	-0.900	0.390	-0.339	-0.048	-26.586
80	Duke	-0.483	0.207	-0.458	-0.116	-0.459	-0.054	0.311	-0.474	-0.180	-1.124	-27.604
81	Louisiana Tech	-1.098	0.192	0.529	-0.660	0.547	-0.117	0.019	-0.165	-0.197	0.296	-35.700
82	Tulsa	-0.483	-1.039	-0.615	0.027	-0.130	-0.567	0.735	-0.324	0.545	0.617	-37.190
83	Wyoming	-0.127	0.099	-0.261	-0.546	-1.021	-0.539	-1.479	-0.312	-1.399	-0.251	-38.651
84	Syracuse	-0.839	0.622	-1.495	1.128	-1.382	0.513	-0.014	-0.413	-0.845	0.617	-39.964
85	Michigan	-0.483	-0.621	-0.312	-0.581	-0.014	-0.498	-0.314	-0.350	0.099	0.311	-41.187
86	Virginia	-1.195	1.598	0.859	-0.628	-1.016	0.129	-1.599	-0.174	-1.907	0.438	-43.703
87	Baylor	-0.839	0.704	0.194	-0.747	-0.669	-0.718	-0.491	-0.312	-0.627	-1.040	-45.748
88	Toledo	-0.483	-1.223	-0.141	-0.437	0.222	-0.751	0.172	-1.878	1.031	-1.293	-47.476
89	San Diego St.	-0.839	-0.337	-0.162	-0.424	0.414	-0.295	-0.232	-0.801	-0.644	-1.390	-47.555
90	Kent St.	-0.483	-1.750	0.688	0.269	-1.868	0.172	-0.842	0.414	-0.893	0.112	-49.807
91	La.-Lafayette	-0.127	-1.708	-0.669	-0.825	0.436	-0.696	-0.416	-0.775	-0.298	-1.270	-50.517
92	Louisville	-0.839	0.564	-0.908	-0.414	-0.513	-0.099	-0.791	-0.162	-0.781	-0.256	-51.202
93	UAB	-0.483	-0.446	-1.398	0.108	-0.506	-1.609	0.945	-1.076	0.822	-1.102	-51.652
94	Illinois	-1.098	0.648	-0.903	0.020	-0.163	-0.656	-0.619	-0.438	0.011	-1.071	-55.520
95	Army	-0.322	-2.116	0.269	-0.016	-1.694	1.000	-1.723	0.423	-1.666	-0.158	-55.796
96	Indiana	-0.839	-0.189	-0.701	-0.268	-0.130	-0.636	-0.288	-0.650	-0.241	-1.574	-56.417
97	Colorado	-1.195	0.752	-0.297	-0.319	-0.693	0.046	-1.376	-0.550	-1.126	0.865	-59.317
98	Western Mich.	-0.483	-1.759	-0.402	-0.737	0.296	-0.956	-0.420	-0.350	0.157	0.032	-59.360
99	UNLV	-0.483	-0.094	-1.263	-1.767	1.120	-1.627	-0.527	-1.089	-0.481	-1.909	-63.752
100	Utah St.	-0.839	0.002	-0.570	-1.400	-0.672	-1.608	0.548	-1.327	1.056	-0.619	-68.639
101	Vanderbilt	-1.551	1.109	0.561	-1.213	-0.756	0.051	-2.317	0.277	-1.265	0.096	-71.957
102	Colorado St.	-1.195	-0.016	-0.834	-0.097	-0.772	-0.398	-0.089	-0.700	-0.483	-2.877	-72.205
103	Arkansas St.	-1.098	-1.682	-0.503	0.594	-1.242	0.260	-0.695	0.244	-0.743	-0.395	-75.680
104	Maryland	-1.551	0.980	-1.010	-0.067	-0.561	-0.552	-0.739	-0.913	-1.088	0.090	-76.705
105	UTEP	-0.839	-0.955	-0.705	-1.286	0.267	-1.461	-0.099	-1.251	0.870	-1.443	-76.815
106	Fla. Atlantic	-0.710	-1.296	-1.433	-1.815	1.182	-1.587	0.436	-1.463	0.971	-0.560	-78.705
107	Akron	-1.195	-1.161	-0.049	-0.581	-1.341	-0.037	-0.947	-0.538	-1.360	-1.871	-90.266
108	North Texas	-1.551	-1.631	-0.119	-1.158	0.381	-0.840	-0.238	-1.564	0.521	0.194	-99.008
109	Tulane	-1.195	-0.419	-1.821	-1.383	0.662	-1.028	-0.397	-1.728	-1.158	-1.900	-99.300
110	Miami (OH)	-1.908	0.126	-0.573	-0.947	-0.142	-0.211	-1.003	-1.352	-0.617	-0.329	-100.735
111	Memphis	-1.551	-0.238	-1.729	-0.634	-0.772	-1.651	-0.765	-1.451	-0.100	-0.207	-115.361
112	Ball St.	-1.551	-1.214	-1.176	-0.103	-1.009	-0.379	-2.049	-0.450	-1.484	-0.028	-116.085
113	San Jose St.	-1.487	0.283	-0.109	-2.751	-1.227	-1.420	-0.971	-1.122	-1.723	-1.213	-116.975
114	FIU	-1.098	-0.410	-0.925	-2.170	-0.823	-2.403	-1.327	-1.627	-1.194	-0.821	-120.546
115	New Mexico St.	-1.195	-1.030	0.078	-1.698	-1.552	-0.862	-2.875	-0.838	-2.554	-0.932	-121.013
116	New Mexico	-1.908	0.185	-1.697	-0.412	-1.664	-0.954	-1.389	-1.615	-1.108	-1.661	-132.084
117	Rice	-1.551	-0.067	-2.252	-1.036	-1.493	-1.768	-1.667	-2.691	-1.296	-0.951	-144.178
118	Washington St.	-1.908	1.811	-1.436	-2.154	-2.742	-2.630	-1.631	-2.003	-2.273	-0.511	-152.426
119	Eastern Mich.	-2.264	-0.977	-0.620	-3.139	-0.351	-1.102	-1.754	-1.965	-1.754	-1.189	-168.895
120	Western Ky.	-2.264	-1.166	-2.555	-2.678	-1.502	-2.401	-1.168	-2.379	-0.860	-2.628	-205.211

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Comments

Iowa should be above Penn State due to head to head and better non-conference wins. BYU is ranked far too high considering they were blown out at home by TCU and an abysmal FSU team. Kudos and thanks for the TCU rating as the Frogs look to join the debate with Auburn about the best teams not allowed in the BCS title game.

by HawkeyedFrog on Nov 29, 2009 9:12 PM EST reply actions

I'm a huuuuge mid-major guy

having graduated from Wyoming. So TCU’s slot pleases me. But I don’t think they’ll keep it if Texas wins out, unfortunately. the numbers are extremely close.

I don’t mind moving BYU down and Iowa up. Much of these are probably correctable with better offensive metric tracking, but that’s an offseason project.

by David Hooper on Nov 29, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions