College BlogPoll: Week 13 Draft

Here is the draft for the week 13 BlogPoll.  As always, the draft is simply the computer ranking without any adjustments; manual tweaks may be applied prior to the final draft.  For this week, the W/L weight was increased to 30, and SOS decreased to 10.  This is a change that fits a pattern observed in the previous 2 to 3 weeks.  Explanations and the full chart are after the jump.

 

Dropped Out: Arizona (#20), Mississippi (#21), Clemson (#23).

Observations:

  • TCU #2.  As you'll see in the raw numbers below, the numerical differences between TCU, Texas, and Alabama are negligible.  TCU should remain ahead of the UF/Bama loser next week, but will probably slip behind Texas if they win.  The odds are in favor of TCU being #3 when it matters.
  • Penn State.  Still the object of unrequited affection by my computer.  PSU will be manually dropped, for sure.  But how far?
  • Oregon.  I sorta feel like they should be higher up - maybe 10ish.  Thoughts?
  • Oklahoma.  Yeah, they'll get spiked.  It's that 'cpu loves defense' thing.  They're gone.
  • Anything else?

Raw Data

Here is the data in Excel 2003 form and in Excel 2007 form.  The numbers in static table form follow below.  What you'll notice is that the top 4 are clearly above everybody else.  Otherwise, there is a lot of clumping and flexibility to manually tweak things.  I'll be particularly reliant on feedback this week because my end-of-semester projects are all coming due and I don't think I'll have time to sift through it myself.

Untitled Document
Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD SCORE
1 Florida 2.009 0.537 2.233 1.418 1.738 2.380 2.144 2.306 1.265 2.305 180.252
2 TCU 2.009 -0.468 2.105 1.648 0.684 2.377 1.932 1.917 1.575 2.320 157.584
3 Alabama 2.009 0.832 2.361 1.731 -0.363 2.365 0.484 2.156 0.499 1.813 156.833
4 Texas 2.009 0.292 1.235 2.105 1.344 1.840 1.123 1.466 1.270 1.891 155.592
5 Boise St. 2.009 -0.720 1.223 0.549 -0.091 1.022 2.162 0.991 1.303 1.117 112.916
6 Penn St. 1.297 -0.492 1.302 1.321 1.685 1.590 0.889 2.005 0.587 1.211 111.664
7 Cincinnati 2.009 -0.309 0.507 0.288 0.557 0.306 2.507 0.982 1.639 0.145 109.499
8 Ohio St. 1.297 0.044 1.719 1.577 0.147 1.852 -0.116 1.954 -0.244 1.317 105.776
9 BYU 1.297 -0.211 0.251 0.880 2.675 0.620 1.897 0.526 1.016 -0.015 100.765
10 Virginia Tech 0.941 1.432 1.761 0.230 0.330 1.177 1.224 1.416 0.164 0.714 100.014
11 Georgia Tech 1.297 1.224 -0.703 0.303 2.193 0.239 1.845 0.164 1.076 -0.280 93.356
12 Iowa 1.297 0.329 2.009 0.636 -0.274 1.417 -0.529 1.454 -0.839 0.553 89.561
13 Miami (FL) 0.941 1.244 0.391 0.726 1.346 0.796 0.702 0.427 0.587 0.457 87.180
14 Oregon 1.232 1.623 1.174 0.426 -0.648 0.747 0.048 0.367 0.698 0.457 86.786
15 Pittsburgh 1.232 0.196 0.345 0.880 0.516 0.825 1.397 1.119 0.417 0.307 85.330
16 Nebraska 0.941 -0.014 2.048 1.126 -0.055 1.332 -0.026 2.118 -0.769 1.009 84.970
17 Oregon St. 0.844 0.830 -0.060 1.210 1.459 0.450 1.008 0.450 0.756 0.666 79.299
18 Central Mich. 1.297 -1.690 0.506 0.679 1.738 0.621 1.313 1.104 0.717 0.513 73.704
19 LSU 0.941 1.224 1.074 0.339 -0.111 0.701 0.154 1.379 -1.207 0.384 73.023
20 Oklahoma 0.229 0.770 1.530 1.451 -0.142 1.654 -0.005 1.754 0.708 1.383 70.255
21 Oklahoma St. 0.941 0.312 0.738 1.473 -0.221 0.641 0.337 0.514 -0.045 1.149 69.572
22 West Virginia 0.844 0.535 0.645 0.605 0.929 0.456 0.269 0.668 0.212 1.045 68.358
23 Southern California 0.844 1.505 1.236 0.308 -0.984 0.373 0.122 0.723 0.271 0.426 65.497
24 North Carolina 0.585 0.557 1.315 1.347 -0.467 1.757 -0.868 1.240 -1.177 1.893 64.102
25 Utah 0.941 -0.176 1.533 0.165 -0.152 0.923 0.023 0.827 0.187 1.445 62.315
26 Wisconsin 0.844 -0.103 -0.361 1.241 1.175 0.833 0.457 0.244 0.426 0.324 59.731
27 Arizona 0.455 1.346 0.329 0.940 0.405 0.838 -0.061 0.217 0.637 1.049 59.422
28 Mississippi 0.585 0.495 1.242 0.189 0.114 0.831 0.072 0.991 0.467 1.483 57.681
29 California 0.844 1.171 -0.166 0.889 -0.132 -0.084 0.134 0.340 0.515 0.150 54.422
30 Tennessee 0.229 0.941 1.540 0.126 0.027 1.019 0.363 0.627 0.289 0.865 52.569
31 Clemson 0.585 0.777 0.947 0.317 -0.351 1.097 -0.092 0.853 -0.303 0.364 52.295
32 Texas Tech 0.585 0.181 0.582 0.563 0.203 0.302 0.782 0.514 1.447 -0.207 49.970
33 South Carolina 0.229 1.532 0.717 0.270 -0.190 1.094 -0.217 0.714 -0.342 0.407 45.453
34 Stanford 0.585 1.242 -0.740 0.088 1.325 -0.555 0.856 -0.150 1.092 -0.579 43.677
35 Navy 0.585 -0.324 -0.081 0.492 1.336 0.355 0.720 0.578 -0.470 0.584 41.928
36 Auburn 0.229 1.251 0.746 -0.331 0.173 0.217 0.981 -0.263 0.934 0.936 40.571
37 Houston 1.297 -1.208 -0.147 -1.711 1.738 -1.430 1.858 -0.425 3.567 -0.322 37.324
38 Missouri 0.585 0.334 -0.297 1.260 -0.524 0.136 0.629 0.089 0.669 -0.560 36.582
39 South Fla. 0.455 -0.229 0.813 0.228 -0.116 0.699 0.649 0.710 -0.275 -0.159 35.257
40 Boston College 0.585 0.356 0.666 1.065 -1.683 0.847 -0.566 0.865 -0.941 1.075 34.410
41 Northwestern 0.585 -0.957 -0.003 0.600 1.392 0.383 0.152 0.277 0.125 0.770 33.822
42 Air Force 0.229 -0.712 0.939 0.293 0.622 1.452 -0.403 1.479 -0.400 1.561 33.072
43 Rutgers 0.844 -1.334 0.441 1.073 -0.818 0.904 -0.241 1.255 -0.830 1.213 32.513
44 Georgia 0.229 1.660 -0.623 0.500 -0.175 0.668 0.192 -0.187 -0.297 0.486 30.776
45 UCF 0.585 -0.574 -0.438 1.599 -0.163 0.314 0.201 0.677 -0.538 -0.458 28.276
46 Nevada 0.585 -0.437 -1.681 0.815 1.912 -0.599 0.669 -0.300 2.491 0.083 26.998
47 East Carolina 0.585 -0.147 0.106 0.415 0.474 -0.103 -0.493 0.590 -0.262 -0.099 26.814
48 Ohio 0.941 -1.562 1.256 -0.120 -1.148 0.245 0.127 0.564 -0.876 0.644 21.746
49 Middle Tenn. 0.941 -1.845 0.949 0.248 -1.083 0.252 -0.351 0.327 0.707 0.914 19.470
50 Arkansas 0.229 1.346 -0.845 -0.048 -0.616 -0.651 1.473 -0.087 1.056 0.519 17.093
51 Temple 0.941 -1.620 -0.044 0.957 -0.525 0.537 -1.157 0.526 -0.717 0.637 17.082
52 Troy 0.941 -1.212 -0.829 0.193 0.173 -0.940 0.998 -0.512 1.739 0.065 15.745
53 UCLA -0.127 1.561 0.407 0.090 -0.979 0.490 -0.976 0.590 -0.689 1.009 10.824
54 Fresno St. 0.455 -0.204 -0.184 -1.306 1.053 -0.605 0.658 -0.070 1.028 0.010 10.373
55 Kentucky 0.229 0.593 0.908 -0.855 -0.147 0.048 -1.213 0.352 -0.746 -0.145 8.315
56 Notre Dame -0.127 0.952 -0.485 -0.540 0.203 -0.578 1.814 -0.112 1.272 -0.114 7.570
57 Southern Miss. 0.229 -1.137 -0.149 0.648 0.092 -0.397 1.105 0.101 0.688 -0.291 5.582
58 Northern Ill. 0.229 -2.065 -0.146 0.699 0.846 0.747 0.479 0.602 -0.432 -0.482 4.634
59 Texas A&M -0.127 0.482 -0.531 -0.500 1.830 -1.181 0.633 -1.127 1.509 0.397 1.419
60 Connecticut 0.067 0.646 -1.033 0.379 -0.036 -0.350 -0.136 0.053 0.415 0.178 0.410
61 Michigan St. -0.127 0.188 -0.741 0.862 -0.554 0.022 0.984 0.014 0.493 -0.699 -0.267
62 Wake Forest -0.483 1.091 -0.264 -0.396 0.711 -0.314 0.977 -0.162 0.429 -0.619 -1.726
63 Bowling Green 0.229 -0.816 0.221 -1.089 0.838 -0.506 0.153 -0.150 0.220 0.559 -4.783
64 Arizona St. -0.839 1.020 1.039 0.963 -1.552 1.221 -0.947 0.615 -0.775 1.680 -5.195
65 La.-Monroe -0.127 -1.531 0.302 0.927 0.575 0.334 -0.204 -0.324 0.235 0.222 -5.273
66 Kansas -0.483 0.413 -0.198 0.240 0.614 -0.317 0.354 -0.488 0.761 -0.187 -7.650
67 Minnesota -0.127 0.881 0.225 0.035 -0.772 0.024 -0.979 0.089 -1.449 -1.029 -8.052
68 Kansas St. -0.127 -0.027 -0.362 1.040 -0.973 0.461 -0.650 0.277 -0.515 -0.395 -8.543
69 Idaho 0.229 -0.550 -1.763 -0.183 1.443 -1.058 1.454 -1.552 1.265 -2.504 -11.811
70 Purdue -0.483 0.374 0.639 -0.618 0.433 -0.198 -0.050 -0.587 0.218 -0.331 -12.362
71 Washington -0.710 1.804 -0.945 -0.168 1.361 -0.582 -0.314 -0.452 -0.197 -0.670 -13.651
72 Florida St. -0.127 1.700 -1.589 -1.345 1.035 -1.401 0.735 -0.838 0.734 -1.058 -14.160
73 Marshall -0.127 -0.244 -0.205 0.073 0.320 -0.483 -0.632 0.038 -0.412 -0.163 -15.075
74 North Carolina St. -0.483 0.046 -1.016 0.220 0.850 0.078 0.810 -0.901 0.262 -0.663 -17.045
75 Mississippi St. -0.483 1.545 -0.251 0.051 -1.114 -0.008 -1.111 -0.237 -0.121 0.457 -18.266
76 Buffalo -0.483 -1.201 0.377 0.398 0.338 0.412 -0.134 0.214 0.464 -0.728 -18.416
77 Hawaii -0.127 -0.849 -0.556 -1.109 1.118 -0.476 0.358 -0.375 1.348 -0.710 -22.916
78 SMU 0.229 -0.661 0.254 -0.514 -1.798 -0.690 0.046 -0.587 0.019 -0.743 -25.346
79 Iowa St. -0.127 -0.120 -0.526 -0.518 0.239 -0.876 -0.900 0.390 -0.339 -0.048 -26.586
80 Duke -0.483 0.207 -0.458 -0.116 -0.459 -0.054 0.311 -0.474 -0.180 -1.124 -27.604
81 Louisiana Tech -1.098 0.192 0.529 -0.660 0.547 -0.117 0.019 -0.165 -0.197 0.296 -35.700
82 Tulsa -0.483 -1.039 -0.615 0.027 -0.130 -0.567 0.735 -0.324 0.545 0.617 -37.190
83 Wyoming -0.127 0.099 -0.261 -0.546 -1.021 -0.539 -1.479 -0.312 -1.399 -0.251 -38.651
84 Syracuse -0.839 0.622 -1.495 1.128 -1.382 0.513 -0.014 -0.413 -0.845 0.617 -39.964
85 Michigan -0.483 -0.621 -0.312 -0.581 -0.014 -0.498 -0.314 -0.350 0.099 0.311 -41.187
86 Virginia -1.195 1.598 0.859 -0.628 -1.016 0.129 -1.599 -0.174 -1.907 0.438 -43.703
87 Baylor -0.839 0.704 0.194 -0.747 -0.669 -0.718 -0.491 -0.312 -0.627 -1.040 -45.748
88 Toledo -0.483 -1.223 -0.141 -0.437 0.222 -0.751 0.172 -1.878 1.031 -1.293 -47.476
89 San Diego St. -0.839 -0.337 -0.162 -0.424 0.414 -0.295 -0.232 -0.801 -0.644 -1.390 -47.555
90 Kent St. -0.483 -1.750 0.688 0.269 -1.868 0.172 -0.842 0.414 -0.893 0.112 -49.807
91 La.-Lafayette -0.127 -1.708 -0.669 -0.825 0.436 -0.696 -0.416 -0.775 -0.298 -1.270 -50.517
92 Louisville -0.839 0.564 -0.908 -0.414 -0.513 -0.099 -0.791 -0.162 -0.781 -0.256 -51.202
93 UAB -0.483 -0.446 -1.398 0.108 -0.506 -1.609 0.945 -1.076 0.822 -1.102 -51.652
94 Illinois -1.098 0.648 -0.903 0.020 -0.163 -0.656 -0.619 -0.438 0.011 -1.071 -55.520
95 Army -0.322 -2.116 0.269 -0.016 -1.694 1.000 -1.723 0.423 -1.666 -0.158 -55.796
96 Indiana -0.839 -0.189 -0.701 -0.268 -0.130 -0.636 -0.288 -0.650 -0.241 -1.574 -56.417
97 Colorado -1.195 0.752 -0.297 -0.319 -0.693 0.046 -1.376 -0.550 -1.126 0.865 -59.317
98 Western Mich. -0.483 -1.759 -0.402 -0.737 0.296 -0.956 -0.420 -0.350 0.157 0.032 -59.360
99 UNLV -0.483 -0.094 -1.263 -1.767 1.120 -1.627 -0.527 -1.089 -0.481 -1.909 -63.752
100 Utah St. -0.839 0.002 -0.570 -1.400 -0.672 -1.608 0.548 -1.327 1.056 -0.619 -68.639
101 Vanderbilt -1.551 1.109 0.561 -1.213 -0.756 0.051 -2.317 0.277 -1.265 0.096 -71.957
102 Colorado St. -1.195 -0.016 -0.834 -0.097 -0.772 -0.398 -0.089 -0.700 -0.483 -2.877 -72.205
103 Arkansas St. -1.098 -1.682 -0.503 0.594 -1.242 0.260 -0.695 0.244 -0.743 -0.395 -75.680
104 Maryland -1.551 0.980 -1.010 -0.067 -0.561 -0.552 -0.739 -0.913 -1.088 0.090 -76.705
105 UTEP -0.839 -0.955 -0.705 -1.286 0.267 -1.461 -0.099 -1.251 0.870 -1.443 -76.815
106 Fla. Atlantic -0.710 -1.296 -1.433 -1.815 1.182 -1.587 0.436 -1.463 0.971 -0.560 -78.705
107 Akron -1.195 -1.161 -0.049 -0.581 -1.341 -0.037 -0.947 -0.538 -1.360 -1.871 -90.266
108 North Texas -1.551 -1.631 -0.119 -1.158 0.381 -0.840 -0.238 -1.564 0.521 0.194 -99.008
109 Tulane -1.195 -0.419 -1.821 -1.383 0.662 -1.028 -0.397 -1.728 -1.158 -1.900 -99.300
110 Miami (OH) -1.908 0.126 -0.573 -0.947 -0.142 -0.211 -1.003 -1.352 -0.617 -0.329 -100.735
111 Memphis -1.551 -0.238 -1.729 -0.634 -0.772 -1.651 -0.765 -1.451 -0.100 -0.207 -115.361
112 Ball St. -1.551 -1.214 -1.176 -0.103 -1.009 -0.379 -2.049 -0.450 -1.484 -0.028 -116.085
113 San Jose St. -1.487 0.283 -0.109 -2.751 -1.227 -1.420 -0.971 -1.122 -1.723 -1.213 -116.975
114 FIU -1.098 -0.410 -0.925 -2.170 -0.823 -2.403 -1.327 -1.627 -1.194 -0.821 -120.546
115 New Mexico St. -1.195 -1.030 0.078 -1.698 -1.552 -0.862 -2.875 -0.838 -2.554 -0.932 -121.013
116 New Mexico -1.908 0.185 -1.697 -0.412 -1.664 -0.954 -1.389 -1.615 -1.108 -1.661 -132.084
117 Rice -1.551 -0.067 -2.252 -1.036 -1.493 -1.768 -1.667 -2.691 -1.296 -0.951 -144.178
118 Washington St. -1.908 1.811 -1.436 -2.154 -2.742 -2.630 -1.631 -2.003 -2.273 -0.511 -152.426
119 Eastern Mich. -2.264 -0.977 -0.620 -3.139 -0.351 -1.102 -1.754 -1.965 -1.754 -1.189 -168.895
120 Western Ky. -2.264 -1.166 -2.555 -2.678 -1.502 -2.401 -1.168 -2.379 -0.860 -2.628 -205.211
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