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With Urban Meyer's news, is Tennessee's coaching staff the best bet in the SEC East?

Outside Vanderbilt, that is...

The resignation vacation of Urban Meyer will obviously send ripples of all sorts down the line throughout the entire college football scene.  One such ripple I've been pondering for a little bit is the effect of recruiting within the SEC East.  Certainly there are dozens of schools coming up with strategies to try to lure away Florida's current recruits once the dead period ends, and Florida is certainly scrambling to find a way to keep those players when they just lost their defensive coordinator and they know that the offensive coordinator won't be the successor.

But Florida is not the only school with some uncertainty in the coaching staff.  Beyond Urban's medical issues, there are hot seats and potential near-term retirements in the division that could really shake up the scene.  It's not often you see as much as 2/3 of a division where you simply can't guarantee that the current head coaches will be in place this time next year, but that's exactly where the SEC East is at this point in time.

In fact, when you look at the divisional landscape, it suddenly seems like Tennessee's coaching staff is the best bet for continuity.  Here's the rundown (minus Vandy, who insists on this whole 'academics' thing in the south).

Star-divide

Florida

We'll need a little bit of time to see exactly what's going on in Florida, but one thing is certain:  there is very little reason to be confident in the current staff's staying power in Florida.  The return of Meyer, at the very least, appears to be an attempt to retain the current recruiting class for Florida - whether for Meyer's future or his successor.  But even if Meyer returns for this coming year, he is still dealing with stress-related health problems that simply will not go away while he is living the meatgrinder life of a head coach.  With no replacement defensive coordinator and an offensive coordinator who is far from beloved by Florida's own fans, the coaching situation is the most tenuous one ever seen for a head coach who is clearly not on a hot seat.

It will be very interesting to see how this is spun toward the 2010 recruiting class and the early phases of the 2011 class as Florida is clearly in a damage recovery mode.

STATUS: EXTREMELY UNSTABLE

Georgia

The Bulldogs have one of the most established head coaches in the country in Mark Richt.  However, the SEC now gives no credence to seniority, as evidenced by the coaching changes in two of Georgia's biggest rivals last year (Fulmer at Tennessee and Tuberville at Auburn).  Richt's seat is quite warm, and another underwhelming year could be enough for a major overhaul of the program.  Richt obviously has to get something going on defense, and will most likely replace Martinez during the offseason having already dismissed almost the entire defensive staff.   (hey, it's the holidays.  I forget things.  -hooper)  But if that doesn't pay dividends, then Richt will have no fallback plan.  The 2010 season will mean everything for the coaching staff in Georgia.  Unfortunately, this year's recruits will be nearly helpless to do anything about that, as it is unlikely that Georgia freshmen will contribute a whole lot this coming year.  And if Georgia loses to a Florida team with a new head coach this year, watch out.

STATUS:  HIGH RISK

South Carolina

Similar to Richt, but with a national championship to his name, Steve Spurrier is another revered name in the SEC who has made his lifetime mark.  But Spurrier has often shown a proclivity to take some time off and golf while at South Carolina, and at some point in time, he will have to prove to the Gamecock faithful that he can take them above 4th in the East on a regular basis.  Ever close, they never quite live up to the hope, despite healthy recruiting inroads and a well-funded machine.  But quite simply, the Gamecocks need to know if the Spurrier regime is going to translate into a next-level program.  Their in-state rival, Clemson, is enjoying the heightened interest that comes with a new head coach, as is in-division rival Tennessee.

STATUS:  LIKELY CHANGE WITHIN THREE YEARS

Kentucky

Like South Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats would love to shed the 'doormat' moniker in the SEC and become one of the top names.  Rich Brooks has done a great job in stabilizing the program and giving it direction, but is currently leaning more toward leaving than staying.  Like Florida, they will have a new leader at the helm, and Joker's success will depend more on his own skills than what Brooks leaves behind.  You'd like to think that Kentucky won't shake up too badly through the transition, but it's still going to be an uphill battle to catch up to schools with better recruiting inroads and a greater commitment to football.  They're a basketball school, and everybody knows it.

STATUS:  EVEN WHEN BROOKS RETIRES - SAME AS IT EVER WAS

Vanderbilt

Bobby Johnson is definitely the most secure head coach in the East.  Vanderbilt can't keep up with the rest of the SEC, and everybody knows it, but Johnson does a terrific job making things work as well as they possibly can.  Coaching is not the concern at Vanderbilt; recruiting and academic standards are.

STATUS:  STABLE, BUT UNABLE TO KEEP UP

TENNESSEE

Lane Kiffin is a brand new head coach for the team, and his first year has given Vols fans enough reason to believe that he'll be successful.  His father is coordinating a defense that didn't lose a step after the departure of John Chavis, and Ed Orgeron is spearheading the most intense nationally-focused recruiting machine in the country.  Every coach has impeccable credentials for both coaching and recruiting, and the replacements are going quite well so far.  Right now, the Tennessee coaching staff appears to be going absolutely nowhere, and there is no reason to believe that they won't be successful in the near- and long-term futures.

STATUS:  BEST BET IN THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

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Great post, but ...
But Spurrier has often shown a proclivity to take some time off and golf while at South Carolina

Source please?

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Dec 28, 2009 2:26 PM EST reply actions  

One is obviously a joke

The other is not. Also, the jokes about Fulmer’s appearance are supported by the fact of Fulmer’s appearance. The man self-evidently ate too much of something. That doesn’t get into the fact that one has absolutely nothing to do with Fulmer’s performance as a coach or whether he was going to leave Tennessee in x number of years. (I actually pretty much agree with the time frame. I might say four years instead of three, but that’s a minor difference.)

If hooper was making a joke, I’ll apologize. But if he’s seriously saying that Spurrier is slacking off at the golf course, I’d like to see where he got that information. If nothing else, as a South Carolina fan, it’s something I’d like to know about.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Dec 28, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

No apologies needed.

It was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but based on past writeups. Spurrier is a golfer. Fulmer is a hunter. There are several coaches who take time off of coaching to go do other things.

I’m not going to amend, but I’m not worried about sourcing it either. The real point behind it is that, while Spurrier is a great coach who has worked very hard to improve South Carolina, there is a very real possibility of him deciding to hang up the whistle in the near future (i.e. within 4 years).

by David Hooper on Dec 28, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Not the best link for that story

It’s only for a few months in the offseason.

But Spurrier’s golf season, which includes some golf-specific vacations, runs only from about March to July.

There isn’t a lot that coaches legally can do during that time period, except recruit some.

I’m not denying that the man ever goes golfing. But it’s not like he’s taking time away from gameplanning to play golf.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Dec 29, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Thoughts

After a lengthy celebration dance after hearing the news (that looked something like this ). I calmed down long enough to have the following thoughts:

1) With UGA in turmoil and Meyer gone (or at the very least, an uncertain future), this has to make Tennessee the prohibitive favorite in the east, if not in 2010, certainly in the near future.

2) This is going to have a HUGE impact on recruiting (certainly for the aforementioned reasons). This will only exacerbate the problems that Florida was already going to have in upcoming years—with the rise of Miami and South Florida and the new regimes at UT and FSU.

3) Time to practice “The Squirrel” in front of a mirror.

So Sayth King Zach I

by kingofzachland on Dec 28, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

Not so fast

This is certainly an interesting situation and opportunity for Tennessee but a quick look at their roster doesn’t give me great confidence that we’ll win the East in 2010. 2011 or 2012 yes, 2010 not so sure…but these are interesting times.

by phil g on Dec 29, 2009 8:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he was expecting 2010

And I don’t think anyone in their right mind would expect 2010 unless all of Florida’s juniors go pro. They return 8 players on both sides of the ball.

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 29, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Right.

I’m not saying that Tennessee WILL win the East in 2010, but Meyer’s departure will certainly make things more interesting. I also think that it improves our odds of “stealing” one from the Gators early next season in Knoxville, if only because we will (conceivably) have a coaching advantage. IF UT can manage to upset a weakened Florida team, it would be difficult to imagine a situation where we get shut out of Atlanta.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the only time we did not go to the SEC Championship after beating Florida was in 2003—just some food for thought.

More importantly, this has the potential to have long-term implications on the power structure in the East.

So Sayth King Zach I

by kingofzachland on Dec 29, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Martinez

Richt obviously has to get something going on defense, and will most likely replace Martinez during the offseason.

If he doesn’t replace him, UGA won’t have a defensive coordinator. Richt has already fired Martinez. In fact, all of the defensive coaches except Garner have been fired. This happened right after the regular season.

Rich Brooks commented after the Music City bowl that he was 80% certain he was not coming back.

by dmiles on Dec 28, 2009 4:13 PM EST reply actions  

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