College BlogPoll: End of Season Draft

by David Hooper on Dec 6, 2009 2:00 PM EST in College Football

I have already made several manual changes to the poll, based on knowledge of some computer biases that we want to knock out of the system over the offseason. But fortunately, the computer already had TCU ranked above Texas, which saves me some grief. Here is the draft, with discussion and numbers to follow.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Alabama	2
2	TCU
3	Texas	1
4	Boise State	1
5	Cincinnati	1
6	Florida	5
7	Georgia Tech	4
8	Oregon	1
9	Ohio State	2
10	Virginia Tech
11	Brigham Young	3
12	Iowa
13	Penn State	5
14	Miami (Florida)	1
15	Central Michigan	3
16	Pittsburgh	1
17	Nebraska	1
18	LSU	1
19	West Virginia	2
20	Wisconsin	5
21	Arizona
22	Oklahoma State	2
23	Oregon State	6
24	North Carolina	1
25	Utah	1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Southern Cal (#22).

Notes:

Florida was actually ranked #2 by the computers. I'm putting them behind the undefeateds, though. Any problems with that?
Penn State was sky-high again. They're put behind Iowa (head-to-head).
Georgia Tech was low, thanks to being an offense-only team that still wins like crazy. They're bumped up.
Oregon got the Georgia Tech treatment.
Brigham Young - should they bump down a touch? They're a flaky team, but so is Iowa.
Central Michigan - any thoughts?
Oklahoma again was manually bumped out. (FWIW, Tennessee comes in at #29 with the same record.)
Arizona didn't move because they were manually bumped last week. Is beating USC worth bumping them?

Data:

Here it is in Excel 2003 and Excel 2007 form. Static data is in this table:

Untitled Document

Rank	Team	WL	SOS	PED	RD	3DO	TD	PEO	OPPG	TO	3DD	SCORE
1	Alabama	2.061	1.160	2.226	1.735	0.146	2.250	0.695	2.177	0.625	1.752	166.502
2	Florida	1.726	0.922	1.925	1.151	1.590	2.043	1.903	2.095	1.127	1.607	161.202
3	TCU	2.061	-0.523	2.139	1.671	0.691	2.403	1.978	1.961	1.595	2.348	160.236
4	Texas	2.061	0.401	1.493	2.124	1.080	2.079	0.869	1.545	0.951	2.166	159.688
5	Penn St.	1.335	-0.512	1.328	1.340	1.693	1.608	0.916	2.050	0.602	1.230	113.899
6	Boise St.	2.061	-1.048	1.359	0.529	-0.230	1.199	2.103	1.158	1.444	1.230	112.956
7	Cincinnati	2.061	-0.021	0.432	0.180	0.465	0.280	2.221	0.693	1.511	0.009	108.746
8	Ohio St.	1.335	0.017	1.749	1.599	0.153	1.872	-0.108	1.999	-0.234	1.337	107.887
9	Virginia Tech	0.972	1.490	1.791	0.237	0.337	1.190	1.258	1.454	0.177	0.728	102.840
10	BYU	1.335	-0.266	0.264	0.895	2.684	0.628	1.943	0.553	1.034	-0.008	102.363
11	Georgia Tech	1.391	1.271	-0.545	-0.044	2.342	0.158	1.694	0.068	1.132	-0.431	95.093
12	Iowa	1.335	0.326	2.042	0.648	-0.268	1.434	-0.529	1.492	-0.833	0.566	91.762
13	Oregon	1.335	1.588	0.942	0.533	-0.598	0.658	0.148	0.262	0.816	0.476	88.972
14	Miami (FL)	0.972	1.202	0.406	0.739	1.354	0.806	0.726	0.452	0.602	0.468	88.537
15	Central Mich.	1.391	-1.535	0.569	0.714	1.898	0.708	1.276	1.228	0.680	0.593	82.427
16	Pittsburgh	0.972	0.412	0.386	0.983	0.600	0.758	1.398	0.807	0.381	0.327	78.837
17	Nebraska	0.721	0.330	2.124	1.303	-0.453	1.472	-0.418	2.142	-1.071	1.055	78.228
18	LSU	0.972	1.262	1.097	0.348	-0.105	0.710	0.167	1.416	-1.203	0.395	75.346
19	West Virginia	0.972	0.652	0.828	0.736	0.477	0.647	0.151	0.693	0.060	1.465	74.882
20	Wisconsin	0.972	-0.144	-0.122	1.425	1.383	1.003	0.668	0.438	0.661	0.457	74.258
21	Oklahoma	0.246	0.714	1.558	1.472	-0.136	1.673	0.005	1.796	0.724	1.403	71.186
22	Arizona	0.609	1.520	0.510	0.897	0.593	0.905	-0.115	0.324	0.514	0.987	70.642
23	Oklahoma St.	0.972	0.231	0.757	1.495	-0.215	0.649	0.353	0.540	-0.034	1.167	70.515
24	Oregon St.	0.609	1.138	-0.127	0.839	1.285	0.232	1.087	0.286	0.724	0.621	66.633
25	North Carolina	0.609	0.615	1.340	1.367	-0.461	1.777	-0.875	1.276	-1.172	1.918	66.515
26	Utah	0.972	-0.240	1.561	0.171	-0.146	0.935	0.034	0.857	0.200	1.465	63.415
27	Mississippi	0.609	0.544	1.266	0.196	0.121	0.841	0.083	1.023	0.481	1.504	59.902
28	Southern California	0.609	1.487	1.199	0.426	-0.912	0.415	-0.130	0.743	0.120	0.159	56.079
29	Tennessee	0.246	0.926	1.568	0.132	0.033	1.032	0.379	0.655	0.302	0.880	53.799
30	Texas Tech	0.609	0.103	0.599	0.574	0.210	0.307	0.807	0.540	1.467	-0.201	50.595
31	South Carolina	0.246	1.539	0.736	0.278	-0.184	1.107	-0.211	0.743	-0.332	0.419	46.786
32	Stanford	0.609	1.168	-0.739	0.093	1.333	-0.559	0.882	-0.132	1.110	-0.576	44.047
33	Navy	0.609	-0.386	-0.072	0.502	1.343	0.360	0.744	0.604	-0.461	0.597	42.653
34	Auburn	0.246	1.316	0.765	-0.330	0.179	0.221	1.009	-0.247	0.950	0.952	42.616
35	Clemson	0.386	0.954	0.903	-0.050	-0.194	0.881	-0.214	0.655	-0.222	-0.034	40.952
36	Missouri	0.609	0.311	-0.290	1.279	-0.518	0.139	0.651	0.110	0.684	-0.558	37.778
37	California	0.609	1.209	-0.485	0.769	-0.408	-0.223	0.029	0.122	0.365	0.352	36.478
38	Boston College	0.609	0.334	0.684	1.082	-1.679	0.858	-0.567	0.895	-0.935	1.092	35.661
39	Northwestern	0.609	-0.926	0.007	0.611	1.400	0.389	0.165	0.300	0.137	0.785	35.653
40	Houston	1.056	-0.988	-0.171	-1.598	2.076	-1.397	1.822	-0.528	3.564	-0.560	34.215
41	Air Force	0.246	-0.759	0.960	0.301	0.629	1.468	-0.401	1.518	-0.391	1.583	33.828
42	East Carolina	0.721	0.002	-0.088	0.616	0.664	-0.362	-0.420	0.490	-0.185	-0.615	32.883
43	South Fla.	0.246	-0.011	0.643	0.260	0.273	0.670	0.619	0.629	-0.280	-0.223	31.199
44	Georgia	0.246	1.588	-0.621	0.511	-0.169	0.676	0.206	-0.171	-0.287	0.498	30.957
45	UCF	0.609	-0.555	-0.433	1.622	-0.157	0.319	0.215	0.705	-0.530	-0.455	29.990
46	Nevada	0.609	-0.499	-1.690	0.829	1.921	-0.603	0.691	-0.285	2.517	0.091	27.465
47	Rutgers	0.609	-1.082	0.524	0.971	-1.244	0.971	-0.516	1.199	-0.989	1.515	21.727
48	Middle Tenn.	0.972	-1.867	0.970	0.256	-1.078	0.256	-0.348	0.350	0.722	0.930	20.908
49	Temple	0.972	-1.616	-0.035	0.973	-0.520	0.545	-1.169	0.553	-0.710	0.650	18.697
50	Arkansas	0.246	1.327	-0.845	-0.044	-0.610	-0.656	1.511	-0.069	1.073	0.531	17.909
51	Troy	0.972	-1.254	-0.829	0.200	0.179	-0.948	1.027	-0.499	1.761	0.073	16.742
52	Ohio	0.721	-1.299	1.101	-0.065	-1.172	0.209	0.028	0.607	-0.942	0.294	14.132
53	UCLA	-0.117	1.492	0.421	0.095	-0.974	0.496	-0.985	0.616	-0.682	1.026	10.753
54	Kentucky	0.246	0.594	0.929	-0.860	-0.141	0.050	-1.226	0.376	-0.739	-0.139	9.246
55	Fresno St.	0.609	-0.249	-0.331	-1.581	1.015	-0.834	0.751	-0.385	1.013	-0.025	8.462
56	Notre Dame	-0.117	0.917	-0.481	-0.542	0.210	-0.582	1.858	-0.094	1.291	-0.107	7.983
57	Southern Miss.	0.246	-1.127	-0.141	0.660	0.098	-0.399	1.136	0.122	0.703	-0.286	6.896
58	Connecticut	0.246	0.596	-0.992	0.264	0.033	-0.304	-0.003	0.046	0.355	-0.201	6.865
59	Northern Ill.	0.246	-2.028	-0.138	0.712	0.854	0.756	0.498	0.629	-0.423	-0.479	6.322
60	Texas A&M	-0.117	0.422	-0.528	-0.500	1.838	-1.191	0.655	-1.122	1.529	0.408	1.307
61	Michigan St.	-0.117	0.221	-0.740	0.876	-0.549	0.025	1.012	0.033	0.507	-0.698	1.029
62	Washington	-0.480	1.708	-0.776	-0.013	1.087	-0.432	0.055	-0.209	-0.047	-0.277	-0.144
63	Wake Forest	-0.480	1.042	-0.257	-0.396	0.718	-0.316	1.005	-0.145	0.443	-0.617	-1.807
64	Bowling Green	0.246	-0.840	0.233	-1.096	0.845	-0.509	0.166	-0.132	0.232	0.571	-4.154
65	La.-Monroe	-0.117	-1.528	0.316	0.942	0.581	0.339	-0.198	-0.309	0.248	0.231	-4.323
66	Arizona St.	-0.843	0.975	1.061	0.979	-1.547	1.236	-0.955	0.642	-0.768	1.703	-5.248
67	Kansas	-0.480	0.373	-0.191	0.247	0.621	-0.319	0.371	-0.475	0.776	-0.181	-7.622
68	Minnesota	-0.117	0.810	0.237	0.040	-0.766	0.026	-0.988	0.110	-1.445	-1.031	-8.263
69	Kansas St.	-0.117	-0.084	-0.356	1.057	-0.968	0.467	-0.653	0.300	-0.506	-0.391	-8.444
70	Idaho	0.246	-0.574	-1.773	-0.180	1.451	-1.067	1.492	-1.553	1.284	-2.519	-11.307
71	Purdue	-0.480	0.364	0.657	-0.620	0.439	-0.198	-0.041	-0.575	0.231	-0.326	-11.989
72	Marshall	-0.117	-0.251	-0.197	0.079	0.326	-0.486	-0.634	0.058	-0.403	-0.157	-14.511
73	Florida St.	-0.117	1.592	-1.596	-1.355	1.042	-1.412	0.774	-0.830	0.768	-1.060	-14.957
74	North Carolina St.	-0.480	0.009	-1.018	0.227	0.857	0.081	0.836	-0.894	0.275	-0.661	-17.032
75	Buffalo	-0.480	-1.196	0.392	0.408	0.345	0.418	-0.127	0.236	0.478	-0.727	-17.716
76	Mississippi St.	-0.480	1.526	-0.244	0.056	-1.109	-0.006	-1.122	-0.221	-0.110	0.468	-18.162
77	SMU	0.246	-0.722	0.267	-0.515	-1.794	-0.695	0.057	-0.575	0.030	-0.742	-25.198
78	Iowa St.	-0.117	-0.169	-0.522	-0.519	0.246	-0.883	-0.907	0.414	-0.329	-0.041	-26.698
79	Duke	-0.480	0.180	-0.453	-0.112	-0.453	-0.052	0.326	-0.461	-0.170	-1.126	-27.508
80	Louisiana Tech	-0.843	-0.212	0.461	-0.359	0.362	-0.048	0.317	-0.069	-0.104	0.301	-27.669
81	Tulsa	-0.480	-1.069	-0.612	0.032	-0.124	-0.571	0.759	-0.309	0.560	0.630	-37.080
82	Hawaii	-0.285	-0.744	-0.730	-1.321	0.885	-0.705	0.213	-0.633	1.040	-0.981	-38.122
83	Wyoming	-0.117	0.073	-0.254	-0.548	-1.016	-0.542	-1.497	-0.297	-1.396	-0.245	-38.554
84	Syracuse	-0.843	0.572	-1.502	1.145	-1.378	0.520	-0.004	-0.399	-0.838	0.630	-40.385
85	Michigan	-0.480	-0.587	-0.306	-0.583	-0.008	-0.502	-0.310	-0.335	0.111	0.321	-40.447
86	Virginia	-1.206	1.560	0.879	-0.630	-1.011	0.132	-1.620	-0.157	-1.906	0.450	-44.346
87	Baylor	-0.843	0.634	0.206	-0.751	-0.664	-0.724	-0.490	-0.297	-0.619	-1.042	-46.553
88	Toledo	-0.480	-1.228	-0.133	-0.437	0.229	-0.757	0.185	-1.883	1.048	-1.297	-47.210
89	San Diego St.	-0.843	-0.375	-0.154	-0.425	0.420	-0.296	-0.227	-0.792	-0.637	-1.395	-47.937
90	Kent St.	-0.480	-1.751	0.706	0.276	-1.864	0.176	-0.848	0.438	-0.887	0.121	-49.277
91	La.-Lafayette	-0.117	-1.719	-0.667	-0.829	0.443	-0.701	-0.414	-0.766	-0.289	-1.274	-50.206
92	UAB	-0.480	-0.414	-1.405	0.114	-0.501	-1.623	0.973	-1.070	0.838	-1.104	-50.974
93	Louisville	-0.843	0.508	-0.909	-0.414	-0.508	-0.098	-0.797	-0.145	-0.774	-0.251	-51.926
94	Army	-0.315	-2.111	0.282	-0.011	-1.689	1.012	-1.746	0.447	-1.664	-0.152	-55.223
95	Indiana	-0.843	-0.182	-0.699	-0.266	-0.124	-0.641	-0.284	-0.639	-0.231	-1.581	-56.330
96	Western Mich.	-0.480	-1.725	-0.397	-0.741	0.302	-0.964	-0.418	-0.335	0.169	0.040	-58.693
97	Colorado	-1.206	0.712	-0.290	-0.318	-0.688	0.049	-1.392	-0.537	-1.121	0.880	-60.089
98	Illinois	-1.206	0.589	-0.952	-0.151	-0.124	-0.681	-0.430	-0.741	0.269	-1.044	-61.612
99	Arkansas St.	-0.843	-1.950	-0.415	0.648	-1.109	0.457	-0.553	0.312	-0.866	-0.266	-64.426
100	UNLV	-0.480	-0.156	-1.268	-1.783	1.128	-1.642	-0.527	-1.084	-0.473	-1.919	-64.623
101	Utah St.	-0.843	-0.077	-0.567	-1.411	-0.667	-1.622	0.568	-1.324	1.073	-0.617	-69.699
102	Fla. Atlantic	-0.480	-1.417	-1.316	-1.783	0.967	-1.587	0.500	-1.286	0.946	-0.440	-70.792
103	Colorado St.	-1.206	-0.060	-0.834	-0.094	-0.766	-0.400	-0.081	-0.690	-0.474	-2.896	-72.984
104	Vanderbilt	-1.569	1.074	0.577	-1.222	-0.751	0.053	-2.351	0.300	-1.261	0.104	-72.987
105	UTEP	-0.843	-0.984	-0.704	-1.296	0.273	-1.474	-0.091	-1.248	0.886	-1.448	-77.325
106	Maryland	-1.569	0.862	-1.012	-0.063	-0.556	-0.556	-0.744	-0.906	-1.084	0.099	-78.768
107	Akron	-1.206	-1.149	-0.040	-0.583	-1.337	-0.036	-0.955	-0.525	-1.356	-1.881	-90.376
108	North Texas	-1.569	-1.595	-0.110	-1.166	0.388	-0.846	-0.233	-1.565	0.535	0.203	-99.116
109	Tulane	-1.206	-0.478	-1.832	-1.394	0.669	-1.037	-0.395	-1.731	-1.153	-1.910	-100.651
110	Miami (OH)	-1.932	0.071	-0.570	-0.953	-0.136	-0.211	-1.012	-1.350	-0.609	-0.324	-102.318
111	Memphis	-1.569	-0.255	-1.739	-0.636	-0.766	-1.666	-0.770	-1.451	-0.090	-0.201	-116.422
112	Ball St.	-1.569	-1.226	-1.180	-0.100	-1.004	-0.381	-2.078	-0.437	-1.481	-0.021	-116.971
113	San Jose St.	-1.569	0.167	-0.411	-2.734	-1.143	-1.401	-0.877	-1.400	-1.653	-0.948	-123.731
114	FIU	-1.206	-0.637	-0.954	-2.085	-0.809	-2.284	-1.225	-1.527	-1.005	-0.637	-124.115
115	New Mexico St.	-1.290	-0.652	-0.021	-1.785	-1.612	-1.051	-3.020	-0.962	-2.613	-0.742	-124.970
116	New Mexico	-1.932	0.120	-1.707	-0.412	-1.660	-0.961	-1.406	-1.617	-1.103	-1.669	-134.033
117	Rice	-1.569	-0.109	-2.269	-1.043	-1.489	-1.784	-1.689	-2.707	-1.292	-0.952	-145.863
118	Washington St.	-1.932	1.710	-1.443	-2.173	-2.739	-2.655	-1.652	-2.009	-2.275	-0.508	-155.156
119	Eastern Mich.	-2.295	-0.964	-0.618	-3.170	-0.345	-1.111	-1.778	-1.971	-1.753	-1.193	-170.363
120	Western Ky.	-2.295	-1.406	-2.530	-2.381	-1.458	-2.042	-1.195	-2.174	-1.008	-2.473	-202.677

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Comments

I still think you should bump Okie State out as well

They lost 27-0 to Oklahoma in their last game. This indicates to me that OU is better.

Fine with ’Zona where they are.

Generally agree with your manual bumps. Don’t know enough about BYU or CMU to comment a whole lot. BYU has been impressive all year outside of their two losses, one of which was to the #2 team in the country and the other one of which involved 5 or so turnovers.

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 6, 2009 5:27 PM EST reply actions