Tennessee Volunteers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys: game preview
by Joel on Mar 18, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
in Tennessee Volunteer Basketball
25 comments
The Tennessee Volunteers (21-12), fresh off a disappointing loss in the SEC Tournament Championship Game against Mississippi State and a disappointing seeding for the NCAA Tournament, head to Dayton, Ohio Friday to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-11). The Vols appear to face a downright rotten horrible scenario, playing an eight seed with four guards who can put up a lot of points from the perimeter on Friday and, if they happen to win, a Sunday-go-to-meeting with second overall No. 1-seed Pittsburgh.
Observations from the stats
The Cowboys rank 5th and 6th in the nation in three-point FGs per game (9.3) and scoring offense (81.1 points per game) respectively. They hit 45.7% of their shots from the field and 38.4% of their shots from beyond the arc. They're also ranked in the top 100 in free throw percentage and appear to take good care of the ball, committing only 12.4 turnovers per outing. Where the Vols have an advantage, it's a slight one, except with respect to rebounds, assists, and blocked shots, where they seem to have a fairly significant edge.
Cowboy players to watch
James Anderson appears to be Oklahoma State's biggest scoring threat, ranking 46th in the nation with an 18.6 PPG average, 99th nationally in three-point FGs per game (2.4), and 78th in FT% (83.1%).
Obi Muonelo was not listed as a starter for the last game the Cowboys played, but he hits as many three-pointers during games as does Anderson despite fewer attempts. Obi's ranked 36th in the nation, hitting 40.1% of his three-point attempts.
Byron Eaton and Terrel Harris are your thieves, Eaton gobbling up 2.2 steals per game and Harris pocketing 1.8 per game. Eaton also ranks 24th in the nation in assists with 5.5 per game.
Other Stuff
KenPom's prediction: Tennessee wins 81-80, with an even 50% chance of winning.
The line ups
 | Ht.
| Wt.
| Yr.
| PPG
| RPG
| APG
|
|
| C | Wayne Chism | 6-9 | 242 | Jr. | 13.8 | 8.1 | 1.2 |
| F | Tyler Smith | 6-7 | 215 | Jr. | 17.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 |
| G | J.P. Prince | 6-7 | 205 | Jr. | 10.1 | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| G | Scotty Hopson | 6-7 | 185 | Fr. | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| G | Bobby Maze | 6-2 | 185 | Jr. | 8.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
 |
Ht.
|
Wt.
|
Yr.
|
PPG
|
RPG
|
APG
|
|
| F | Marshall Moses | 6-6 | 235 | So. | 6.6 | 5.9 | .3 |
| G | Byron Eaton | 5-11 | 210 | Sr. | 14.1 | 3.8 | 5.5 |
| G | Terrel Harris | 6-5 | 200 | Sr. | 13.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| G | Keiton Page | 5-10 | 168 | Fr. | 8.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| G | James Anderson | 6-6 | 205 | So. | 18.6 | 5.8 | 1.4 |
The stats
KEY STATS COMPARISON |
|
|
||
| Category | Rank |
Actual |
Rank |
Actual |
| Scoring Offense | 19 |
78.5 |
6 |
81.1 |
| Scoring Defense | 279 |
72.4 |
305 |
74.2 |
| Scoring Margin | 63 |
6.1 |
54 |
6.9 |
| Field-Goal Percentage | 83 |
45.5 |
74 |
45.7 |
| Field-Goal Percentage Defense | 204 |
44.0 |
224 |
44.3 |
| Three-Point Field Goals Per Game | 132 |
6.6 |
5 |
9.3 |
| Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage | 252 |
31.4 |
23 |
38.4 |
| Three Pt FG Defense | 139 |
33.7 |
177 |
34.3 |
| Free-Throw Percentage | 222 |
67.4 |
25 |
74.3 |
| Rebound Margin | 43 |
4.6 |
229 |
-1.1 |
| Assists Per Game | 17 |
16.3 |
198 |
12.6 |
| Assist Turnover Ratio | 29 |
1.22 |
116 |
1.01 |
| Blocked Shots Per Game | 97 |
3.7 |
251 |
2.5 |
| Steals Per Game | 156 |
6.7 |
70 |
7.7 |
| Turnovers Per Game | 133 |
13.4 |
48 |
12.4 |
| Turnover Margin | 69 |
1.8 |
35 |
2.8 |
| Personal Fouls Per Game | 224 |
19.1 |
316 |
21.3 |
| PLAYERS TO WATCH | |
|
||||
| Category | Player | Rank | Actual | Player | Rank | Actual |
| Points PG | Tyler Smith |
95 |
17.2 |
James Anderson |
46 |
18.6 |
| FG% | ||||||
| 3-Point FG PG | Obi Muonelo James Anderson |
88 99 |
2.5 2.4 |
|||
| 3-Point FG% | Obi Muonelo | 36 |
40.1 |
|||
| FT % | James Anderson |
78 |
83.1 |
|||
| Rebounds PG | Wayne Chism |
76 |
8.1 |
|||
| Assists PG | Byron Eaton | 24 |
5.5 |
|||
| Blocks PG | ||||||
| Steals PG | Byron Eaton Terrel Harris |
29 85 |
2.2 1.8 |
|||
| Assist-TO Ratio |
Bobby Maze | 77 |
1.93 |
|||
0 recs |
25 comments
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Comments
It sounds like much of UT's fate lies in OSU's shooting.
If their percentages are off the charts, UT is in trouble in this one. Otherwise, the rebounding edge should work well in UT’s favor.
by Hooper on Mar 18, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Will we go away from the usual gameplan?
A team that runs our tempo is usually beneficial, but the numbers would strongly, strongly suggest that if we get into a three point shooting contest with these guys, we’re in big trouble. And I worry that we won’t have what it takes to resist that temptation.
This is the perfect chance to bang away on these guys inside – four of our starters are taller than anyone they’ll put on the floor. Instead of jacking threes, can we be patient even in the up-tempo and get the ball down low to Chism and Tyler? And, can we finish well at the rim – we haven’t done this well in recent memory, and if we don’t do it well on Friday, we’re going home.
by Will on Mar 18, 2009 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you hit the nail on the head
The reason Miss St went wrong is because we couldnt hit anything from the paint the 2nd half. But I chalk that up to an Varnado’s astonishing return to the second half from the poor first half he had.
I would hope that we get back to the inside game against OSU, and if we do I think we’ll have a good chance at winning.
now with less meyton panning.
by Pride of the Southland on Mar 18, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the first two tournament games..
against Bama and Auburn, they finished better at the rim than I’ve seen all year. That’s part of what made the shooting percentage inside against MSU seem extra horrible to me. Hopefully they won’t give up on the inside game, because we’re not going to win against anybody if we depend on our outside shooting.
by sddbaker on Mar 18, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like I'll be going home for lunch Friday
And then catching the 2nd half from my computer
now with less meyton panning.
by Pride of the Southland on Mar 18, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DAAAAANG
I thought you meant 12:25 today.
by rblakeh on Mar 18, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No idea
Probably just watch it at home
by rblakeh on Mar 18, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was pondering going to a sports bar or something.
The Mrs. is out for the weekend. The only problem would be not being able to livecomment. I’ve kinda gotten used to that.
by Hooper on Mar 18, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'm watching it at a bar
If anyone’s in the DC area yell loudly.
by Graysnail on Mar 18, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Biggest Problem
is Tennessee’s defense. Not to say that it isn’t good that it hasn’t progressed throughout the course of the season, but the style is not a good matchup. The defense sags off of the perimeter and clogs the lane, helping against dribble drive and grabbing rebounds. But against a good shooting team the defense must stay close to their man, and in turn, the 4 guard set will create speed mismatches and open up driving lanes for the Pokes. This is a bad matchup for us, especially because of the cheap fouls we get when we don’t move our feet and begin to reach in (I’m looking at you JP). And as you can see, OSU makes their free throws.
I don’t know what Bruce is going to do, becuase our size advantage will be great on offense (we should have 50 points in the paint), but could be of detriment on the defensive end. But then again, this is why he is a great coach and gets paid the big bucks.
March Madness is BruceBall Time!
by Volorado on Mar 18, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing.
I don’t think Tennessee played that poorly against MSU. It was either fatigue or distraction, I feel, that plagued us. That or just a head-scratching question mark as to why we couldn’t finish so many shots at the rim. I mean, honestly, go back and look at that game. We missed a lot of points in the paint that game, and not because Varnardo was swatting all of them away.
So I think it really just comes down to this: can Tennessee stay focused? Tennessee played very good defense overall against MSU but we were plagued by a few bad switches by our big men off of shooters who would then drain a big three-ball. And the problems weren’t that numerous but when our shots aren’t falling we can’t give up a trio of bad switches for 9 points.
I’m thinking Bruce will play JP, Maze, and Tabb against Eaton, as he’s a big part of their offense. He’s a senior guard averaging a lot of assists each game and the ball pressure that those three can play with should help get him out of his game.
The biggest thing with our rebounding edge is this, I think: we need to win the one on one rebounds, like we did against Auburn. Hustle will end up deciding this game, as it does so many times. That and how well we play inside, of course.
by bobo_the_vol on Mar 18, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Anybody else catch Pearl on PTI today?
As usual he was a great interviewee. Worth watching if you can find it online or something…
by jimvols on Mar 18, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pearl
starts at about the 9:50 mark
by bobo_the_vol on Mar 18, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's just hilarious.
…the t-shirt is more comfortable … when I take off my jacket … they get to see my frame a little bit.
(Or something really close to that.) Just hilarious.
by Hooper on Mar 18, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's great is
We’re a 9 seed that’s expected to be a non-factor after this weekend…and he’s still the featured guest for five good minutes the day before the tournament starts. That, as they say, you cannot put a price tag on.
by Will on Mar 18, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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