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Disecting Joe Lenardi's Big 10 Lovefest

I don't understand how Joe Lunardi of ESPN could make the bracket that he has up right now and still be considered a sane man. Here are the Big 10 teams he currently has reaching the field of 64:

(note: stats taken from realtimerpi.com)

(2) Michigan State RPI Rank: 6    SOS Rank: 7     Record: 24-5 (14-3)

Obviously a lock, the Spartans have played pretty well all year with a couple of bad losses (home vs Northwestern and Penn State, neutral court vs Maryland) and good wins ("neutral court" win over Texas in Houston). Definately a top 3 seed for them.

(5) Purdue RPI Rank: 34    SOS Rank: 42     Record: 22-8 (11-6)

I don't see what the hooplah over Purdue is, to be honest, other than that they are #2 in a fairly strong conference which might (I guess) warrant a #5 seed. But they lost their only two nonconference games against the RPI top 50 (games vs Duke and Oklahoma) and are 6-6 vs the RPI top 50 which, when you factor in their strength of schedule, doesn't really match up all that well overall. They have close losses at Penn State and Northwestern on the "bad losses" column but their only win vs the RPI top 20 was Michigan State at home. Though the Boilermakers do have a big game Sunday at Michigan State to really validate this point.


(5) Illinois RPI Rank: 21    SOS Rank: 25     Record: 23-8 (11-7)

Illinois' SOS certainly doesn't come from the out-of-conference slate which only saw two games against the RPI top 50 in a loss to Clemson and win against Missouri. I think this team still deserves a higher seed than Purdue, having only two bad losses to Penn State and are 7-6 against the RPI top 50.


(9) Minnesota RPI Rank: 32    SOS Rank: 44     Record: 20-8 (9-8)

At 10-8 in the conference and with an out of conference victory vs Louisville (#9 RPI) one would have to expect to see Minnesota in the field. Buuut their out of conference schedule is hardly tough, with only one other game barely falling into the RPI top 100 (#96 v Northwestern State). They are 5-6 vs the RPI top 50. Still, I like the nice out of conference win coupled with the conference schedule to get them in if they win Saturday v Michigan. They are just 5-7 in the last 12 games which is really not good for them.


10 Wisonsin
RPI Rank: 31    SOS Rank: 5     Record: 17-11 (9-8)

The curious case of the Wisconsin Badgers. In many ways they resemble our Tennessee Vols in that they've played a toughish OOC schedule save for one tiny difference: they haven't beaten anybody good. Seriously, I don't know how a team with a 4-9 record vs the RPI top 50 gets into the dance, especially when you throw in the stat that they had a 6 (six!) game losing streak in the middle of the year (they won 5 straight after that) but their best win is at home vs Illinois and they have a bad loss against Iowa to more than offset that. They are also just 6-6 in their past 12 with one one of those wins against an RPI top 25 team (and 3 vs the TPI top 50.)


10 Ohio State RPI Rank: 39    SOS Rank: 31     Record: 19-9 (9-8)

I really don't understand how these guys are in it. They have a decentish OOC win vs Butler (#20 RPI) for their plate but they are just 5-8 vs the RPI top 50 (two of those coming against #45 RPI Michigan. Suck it, Wolverines.) and are also 6-6 in their past 12. So I just don't see how these guys get in based on the schedule they play.


11 Penn State RPI Rank: 58    SOS Rank: 79     Record: 21-9 (10-7)

I'm actually more okay with the Nittany Lions getting in than the Buckeyes. I know their RPI and SOS isn't as good but they've got no losses outside the RPI top 50 and have claim to wins against Michigan State and a season sweep of Illinois and are 6-9 vs the RPI top 50. Boost PSU up to a 10 seed and kick Ohio State out imho.

12 Michigan RPI Rank: 45    SOS Rank: 9     Record: 17-12 (8-9)

The "We won one big game so we're in"verines have no business in the Big Dance. Absolutely none. They have a homecourt win against #2 RPI Duke to their credit but are still just 4-9 vs the RPI top 50, with those wins coming home vs Duke, home vs Illinois, home vs Purdue, and home vs Minnesota. Notice something there? Yeah, I did to: they have no road resume worth boasting about. You'd think a 5-7 record in their past 12 (and 5-9 of their past 14) would be enough to kick them out of the NCAA but apparently not. Look, honestly, no team with a losing conference record should even be in the running for an at-large berth in the NCAA. Period.

 

Overall I think the Big 10 deserves 6 spots in the tourney at this stage. At most. A majority of their RPI, I think, comes from the fact that they have Michigan State in their league and that their teams just upset each other a lot. They have one good team in their entire league, I think. Only Michigan State has the sort of resume to really think they've got a good shot at reaching the elite eight.

And before people start rippin me about how Big 10 > SEC. You know what? The numbers say they are, and I won't argue the point a whole lot (though I will mention that the SEC is very competetive and I think you'll see 3-4 teams in the Sweet 16 from the SEC) but I will argue till I am blue in the face that the conference is not better than the Big East or ACC, both of which deserve as many or more than as many bids compared to the Big 10.

 

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