Unfortunate Events: Arian Foster and the NFL Draft

by David Hooper on Apr 21, 2009 1:30 PM EDT in Tennessee Volunteer Football

My, my, my. How things can change in a year.

Dial back one year ago to January of 2008. Fulmer was still searching for an offensive coordinator. We were still living large in the warm belly-glow after feasting on Badger meat in the Outback Bowl. Memories of scalded puppies and fried bacon were still dancing in our heads.

Arian Foster was considering going pro with a second-round draft projection.

I've never met the guy. I know very little about him personally, and I have reasons to distrust the portrayal he's received in the public limelight. Yet I wonder: if he had a chance to rewind the clock and choose all over again, would he still choose to return to UT? Would playing for his fourth year of eligibility in last year's crippled offense and missing the all-time rushing record and being involved in many unforgettable plays (of the forgettable variety) outweigh a second-rounder's contract? I don't know how he would answer that, but I imagine that most of us would prefer the latter.

Perusing the draft boards across SBNation, the scene is rather sobering. (Note: click the link below the poll to continue reading the story. There's more after the jump.)

On Foster's personal SBNation bio page, there are exactly four posts across SBNation that include Foster's name this year, not including posts on Rocky Top Talk. Of those four posts, three are written by styg50 from Mile High Report (though one was for Mocking the Draft) and one was for Turf Show Times. A brief summary:

A comprehensive list of possible running backs available for the Rams, where Foster is in the "available in rounds 5 to 7" category.
A writeup of Foster in a series on draftable running backs. It's one of the very, very rare posts on Mile High Report to have zero comments.
A ranking of running backs by a star system, where Foster receives one star.
A byline in a review of the 49ers draft needs, where Foster is seen as a candidate for a change-up back and available in the 4th round.

After last year's Clawfiasco compounded with the severest case of fumblitis, it should surprise no Volunteer fan that Arian's draft stock has slid so far. Players who are either late round prospects or fated to be undrafted do not get much attention at this time of year, and the guy who very nearly got the all-time rushing title at Tennessee has fallen into exactly that group.

The end of the season hasn't been the end of the draft slide for Foster, either. His pro workouts have been unstellar. Having run around 4.7 in the 40 and having dropped his weight to around 215, he is now neither the quick back nor the big back that teams tend to look for. The further you dig into his profile, the harder it gets to see him drafted: fumble problems, pterodactyl VEEK!!!, decreased speed, decreased weight, and last season in general all add up to a bad taste in the mouths of NFL scouts. As I've said before, the scouts look for any reason you might fail in the NFL because their jobs depend on it; when a guy busts, the scouts need to be able to make the case that you couldn't see it coming. Foster's rap sheet is about as far removed from "can't see it coming" as you can get.

The one thing working in his favor is that he played for four years and is the second-leading rusher in Tennessee history. Even for a career that spans both the 2005 and 2008 seasons, Foster did compile a lot of rushes and a lot of yards, and he did show flashes of brilliance in the process. If he does manage to get drafted, it'll be because of Tennessee's history of producing stud running backs under Fulmer and because of the overall body of work.

The eternal optimist in me hopes he gets a chance. I have nothing against the guy and I really do hope for the best for him. The pragmatist in me, however, feels that it's probably better if he doesn't get drafted. As an UDFA, he'll have the opportunity to try out for teams of his choosing, which would put him in a position of finding the best fit he can find. At this point, he'll need all the help he can get.

Poll

In which round will Arian Foster be drafted?

First

3 votes

Second

11 votes

Third

21 votes

Fourth

32 votes

Fifth

18 votes

Sixth

20 votes

Seventh

19 votes

Not Drafted

98 votes

222 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Clawfiasco - Great Term!

To be honest, I had a hard time believing he was a second rounder last year. He was productive and serviceable in the right system but I never thought he was an NFL talent. He might get picked up for somebody’s practice squad which is by no means a bad gig.

"The man who complains about the way the ball bounces is likely to be the one who dropped it."

by Getoffmyvols on Apr 21, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

Foster's Draft Stock

He will most likely fall in the 4-6 round range. I have a feeling that Arian will be another late-round Tennessee pick up by the Titans.

Anyway, the same people who think Foster won’t get drafted are probably the same dullards that think Tyler Smith isn’t getting drafted. Crawl back into your holes.

by golfballs03 on Apr 21, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions

5th or 6th rounder IMO

Somebody will be getting a deal though. He still has the ability to be a 2nd round-quality back, the Clawfense just didn’t highlight that ability. But if there is one thing that the NFL hates more than anything, it may just be fumbles, so hopefully whoever drafts him can rectify that.

But I also have to agree with the scouts here, the unspectacular combine does nothing to quell any fears, and it makes you question his workout ethic, too.

Also a side note: apparently the 40 time is starting to no longer be “the” score to indicate a back’s abilities, but scouts have devised a new way called the “speed score”. It is (Weight x 200) / 40 time^4. If you do the math (assuming 4.7, 215 lbs), you get a score of ~88.66 (say he ran a 4.72 it would be 86.63). In contrast: Chris Johnson (121.9), Brandon Jacobs (123.5), Darren McFadden (120), Knowshown Moreno (96.9), Khalil Bell (88.4).

If you’d like to read the article, its pretty interesting:
You can read it here. (Some of you may have read this @ Music City Miracles)

now with less meyton panning.

by Pride of the Southland on Apr 21, 2009 7:50 PM EDT reply actions

Hmm...

That also says that Brian Westbrook’s 91.7 is the lowest “for any running back who enjoyed success at the NFL level.”

That doesn’t mean that Foster can’t have success, but it would place him as a very, very unique case.

by David Hooper on Apr 21, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

And Westbrook is a "versatile" back too

But somehow, I get the feeling this is wrong, probably due to the availability of 40 times. I doubt they have the stats to go that far back and make that statement.

now with less meyton panning.

by Pride of the Southland on Apr 21, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions

You think Westbrook's 40 time should be higher in the equation?

That would make the case even worse for Foster, would it not?

by David Hooper on Apr 21, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Argh.

By “higher”, I meant “quicker”, which would actually be “lower”. Sorry about that.

by David Hooper on Apr 21, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Hes versatile because he doubles as a receiver, so this stat doesn’t reflect that, but it is also a characteristic NFL teams find appealing, so it helps in his draft-ibility too. I dont know if changing his time to account for his ability would be something I would encourage, but, yes that would make Westbrook’s score better and a higher number, which would make the gap in score between Foster and Westbrook larger.

I just question whether Westbrook is really the lowest scored RB to be successful in the NFL. I doubt they have enough 40 times to go that far back and be able to make that claim. (What do you even consider successful in this instance anyways?)

now with less meyton panning.

by Pride of the Southland on Apr 21, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions