SEC Week-by-Week Preview - September 12

by Will on May 7, 2009 10:00 AM EDT in College Football Comment 7 comments

While Week Two of the college football season still finds many SEC teams playing tuneups against weaker opponents, this year it also features an important non-conference rematch, an interesting east/west rotation game, and an early date between two brand new coaches to compliment the annual divisional rivalry that always sets the tone for these two teams:

GAME OF THE WEEK

South Carolina at Georgia

In terms of what to expect, few SEC contests have offered as much predicitability as this rivalry over the last five years:

2004: Georgia 20 - South Carolina 16
2005: Georgia 17 - South Carolina 15
2006: Georgia 18 - South Carolina 0
2007: South Carolina 16 - Georgia 12
2008: Georgia 14 - South Carolina 7

So yeah...take the under. While Stephen Garcia will almost certainly still be trying to prove himself to the Carolina faithful, Georgia has no rest until mid-October: we'll look at each of these games as we go, but how about this for the most difficult opening half of the season: at Oklahoma State, vs South Carolina, at Arkansas, vs Arizona State, vs LSU, at Tennessee. Georgia could play well and still leave Mark Richt feeling a little toasty before Columbus Day.

Between the opener in Stillwater and the absence of Stafford and Moreno (and what Chris Low called the biggest no-show of the spring of any SEC player for Caleb King), there's no reason to think that this year's installment of Carolina/UGA will break the trend of the last five years. And between the average margin of victory and the fact that SC won the last time out in Athens (a game that had a hand in costing Georgia a chance at the National Championship), no reason to think that Carolina can't get it done. Could Georgia start 0-2?

OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST

Mississippi State at Auburn

Vanderbilt at LSU

UCLA at Tennessee

Instant opportunity for Dan Mullen and Gene Chizik down on The Plains, and only one of them can seize it. Any win is a big win for Mississippi State, and after last season I'm sure the Tigers will feel likewise until they return to some sense of normalcy. Still, said normalcy is the reason Chizik has a ton more to lose in this encounter, especially considering he'll face West Virginia the following week and has a date with Lane Kiffin in Knoxville two weeks later. You don't want to lose to the other new guys in this league, and Chizik and Nick Saban are the only ones who'll see all of them this year.

Hey look, Vanderbilt gets to be included in a sentence with the word "interesting" in it! One bowl appearance will get you this far in a game that's also the first SEC opportunity in Baton Rouge for John Chavis, who's well versed at stopping Vanderbilt. If Vandy wants to stay relevant, they need to at least stay close in this game; the schedule just isn't as friendly as it was last season for these guys - the SEC West rotation sends LSU and Ole Miss their way in consecutive weeks.

And then there's the rematch of the game that started it all for Lane Kiffin in Knoxville - will he thank Rick Neuheisel in the pregame handshake for allowing him to have this opportunity? The Vols have an opening schedule that will raise the bar by a factor of 10 each time out, from Western Kentucky to UCLA to The Swamp in three weeks. The Bruins bring back plenty of players from the team that beat the Vols last year, but lost their defensive coordinator and will be giving it a go with someone other than Kevin Craft at quarterback...which is good and bad depending on how you look at a guy throwing four interceptions in a winning effort. Redshirt freshman Kevin Prince is expected to get the nod to start the season (against San Diego State) - aside from a similar Craft-like blowup, expect him to take the snaps in Knoxville as well. Tennessee fans are going to cut Lane Kiffin some slack - we think - but probably not for losing this one.

THE REST OF THE SCHEDULE

Troy at Florida

FIU at Alabama

SE Louisiana at Ole Miss

(Bye Week: Arkansas, Kentucky)

Poll

What will Georgia's record be after its first two games? (at Oklahoma State, vs South Carolina)

2-0

32 votes

1-1

70 votes

0-2

22 votes

124 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Of the three starting games, the UCLA one is the most important.

Sure, the Florida one is in-conference, rival, etc. However, that UCLA loss last year really, really stung the fanbase the most and set the stage for the declining attendance, the UT-UF walkout, and the (finally) irresistible calls for Fulmer’s termination. UCLA should be somewhat improved from the team that walked into last year’s matchup in the Rose Bowl – especially if they don’t have such a rash of injuries – but there’s the feeling that UT can’t help but be a better team as well.

The WKU game should be a foregone conclusion; UT has the defense and the running game to control the terms of engagement and play attrition. The Florida game is an odds-on loss, but I think we’re alright with that because, though the coaches won’t say it, we’re rebuilding. But that UCLA game is needed to restore conference pride after two road losses in as many years to the PAC-10.

Don’t get me wrong; if we somehow had a mystical ability to choose between {a} beating UCLA and losing to Florida versus {b} losing to UCLA and beating Florida, I can’t imagine a single Vols fan choosing {a}. But that choice doesn’t exist and the two games stand on their own. A loss to UCLA would be more damaging to the fan psyche than a loss to Florida this year.

by Hooper on May 7, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What's the fanbase reaction if a) happens, though?

I’d be kind of curious; I can see it going one of a few ways but i want to hear your take on it first.

by Graysnail on May 8, 2009 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, I think they'd be alright with it, so long as the Florida loss isn't utterly catastrophic.

We’ve just gone through a year where UT couldn’t beat teams with clearly lesser talent. At this point, nobody can rightly argue that there isn’t a lot of repair work to be done and that we shouldn’t expect championship-level play straight out of the box. We’re re-tooling everything, not just the offense. Meanwhile, Florida returns practically everybody, plus the game will be in the Swamp. And the UCLA game will be against an improved Bruins team, so even though it’s a home game the win should carry quite a bit of weight to it.

But I do think it’ll depend on how the game against Florida looks. As long as it’s not the 80-3 beatdown that so many people think Urban goes for only when he’s offended, then there’ll be reason to think that things could be on the right track. Against the odds they’ll face in Gainesville, “hanging in there” should really be acceptable. (If not, our fans are truly delusional.)

by Hooper on May 8, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crap, I meant b).

by Graysnail on May 8, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How's that for a nice little typo? :)

by Graysnail on May 8, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I see two reactions. And this will seem rather obvious as a forecast.

The week after losing to UCLA, I think you’d find a rather despondent fan base. Sure, it’s a completely new regime and all that, but it would still be a home loss with conference pride on the line. That never goes over well.

The important thing about a home loss to UCLA would be that nobody would believe that UT could beat Florida. UCLA is decidedly inferior to UF, and it’s a home game rather than an away game. We’d still watch the game and cheer, of course, but it wouldn’t be with any expectation of victory.

However, that win against Florida would mean far more than a loss to UCLA. In addition to the whole road-win-against-top-team deal, it would put UT in the driver’s seat for the division, end the current streak against Florida, and deny UF fans the chance to crow about Meyer shutting down Kiffin after the cheating comment. (Hey, we all know that’s irrelevant, but you know it’s coming.) We could easily write off a UCLA loss as growing pains in the face of a win against Florida.

In short, if that happened, I would not be out on the roads in Knoxville until the sun came up the day after beating Florida. People would put the Vegas into Knoxville with an exclamation point.

And you know that Kiffin would put on his salesman hat and spin that sequence in the Vols’ favor. Oh, and Crompton (most likely) would have one more win against Florida than Peyton.

by Hooper on May 8, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Labor Day 2008....

Trust me, if Tennessee could only win 1 game every year, of course I would want that game to be against the Crimson Elephants, but there is a big part of me this year that really really hopes we beat the living snot out of UCLA in Knoxville on September 12th. When UT was at it’s finest from 1989 – 1999 we rarely (if ever) lost in Knoxville. One of the positives of the up and down 2007 season was going 7-0 at home including beat downs of the dawgs and hogs.

I’m not delusional. I do not expect Kiffin or the Vols to go 10-2 next year and play in a huge new year’s day bowl. There are question marks and major experience & depth issues at most positions on the Vols in 2009. I think as a fan base we need to focus first on UCLA and not Florida. A loss to UCLA would be devastating. We need to rally around the UCLA game and support our players & coaches and make Knoxville tough on the Bruins like we did for Cal in 2006. Even when we lose to Florida, we still have a decent shot at being 4-1 when the Dawgs roll into town in mid October if we can handle UCLA and Auburn at home. No stupid fumbles and we have good shot at both those games.

by Jan221973 on May 8, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs