My Basis for Believing Kiffin Will Succeed -- A Response to Kyle

by kidbourbon on Jun 10, 2009 1:45 PM EDT Comment 41 comments

Good morning, Blutarsky constituents! See also this morning's 3 reasons to believe Lane Kiffin can succeed.

Note: I hastily posted this as a comment to this DawgSports article (There Simply is No Basis for Believing Kiffin Will Succeed). I must have been typing unusually fast in my haste, because a lot of words came out. And I hate it when words go unread. So I decided to plagiarize myself....if that is even possible (I did edit out a typo and a sentence I didn't like).

Overdramatic Intro:
I met a very interesting person today. A time traveler. He had traveled all the way to December 2012, and was an avid college football fan. At first he seemed quite reasonable. He intelligently articulated clearly defined parameters for "success" vs. "failure" and then engagingly asked me whether I thought Lane Kiffin would be a success or a failure in his coaching stint at UT. Before I could answer, though, this time-traveling stranger got very hostile. He pulled out a loaded gun, pointed it right at my temple, and repeated the question. Answer correctly, I live. Answer incorrectly, I die. Oh yeah, and he gave me three seconds to answer. I chose success. I felt like it gave me the best chance of, you know, not dying.

Proceeding to the non-fiction Aisle:
Okay, so that story was fictional and we’ll never know whether I lived happily ever after or whether the janitor had to stay late and bring an extra mop. But the choice I gave in the story is the choice I would give if faced with that scenario in real life.

Why? Well here goes…..

We don’t know much about Lane Kiffin, but we know a little. Enough, I think, for this young attorney to reasonably infer that Kiffin is more likely to succeed as a coach than fail.

(1)
We know that Kiffin had great success as an offensive coordinator at USC. This is fact. It is not open for debate. But you, and every other Kiffin contrarian, and every other Kiffin’s contrarian’s cousin can barely contain yourselves right now. You are dying to toss out two counterpoints. Likely something along the lines of:
(a) We really don’t know what Kiffin’s role in that offense was. Was he only co-coordinator, remember? It isn’t clear whether he was calling the plays, running the practices, or doing any of that other important stuff.
(b) My brother’s six year old kid could have had success with an offense featuring Bush and Leinart.

My response to point (a) is that I don’t really know either. But it is much more reasonable to assume that Kiffin did something and wasn’t just Sarkisian’s sidekick. Carroll gave Kiffin the title for a reason, and it wasn’t just to help keep him around as long as possible (a la what UT is currently doing with Orgeron) because Kiffin was not yet a household name and — absent that title — his value on the coaching market would not have been off the charts.

My response to point (b) is that it is possible to not have success with an offense that includes two first round draft picks at the skill positions. Just ask Mark Richt.

(2)
Kiffin has a year and a quarter of NFL experience. And not just as a position coach or a coordinator, but as a head coach. The head coach being the main guy: running the practices, delegating to assistants, being the final decisionmaker….and all the rest of it. Sure, he didn’t have great success in the NFL. But he was not exactly dealt pocket aces either. The Raiders were 2-14 in 2006. In 2007, with Kiffin, they were 4-12. They were 1-4 when he got fired the next year. They ended up at 5-11….winning at roughly the same clip with Kiffin as without him. Did he turn the franchise around? No, he did not. But he did get two more wins in his first year than they got the previous year….the team did improve.

And on top of all that, how many examples of coaches failing in the pro’s but winning in college do we have to see before we all come to the collective conclusion that success at the NFL level is in no way relevant to success at the collegiate level. There are several examples that I won’t list because you already know them.

(3)
Probably because he did not have resounding success with the Raiders, and left under extremely weird circumstances, Kiffin has done everything in his power to ensure that the Vols become a successful program. He has put himself in a position to succeed. He brought in a legendary defensive coordinator. He brought in the best recruiter in the business. He brought in a stable of other very good assistant coaches — who may not be household names like the elder Kiffin and Orgeron — but who are, by all accounts, very good coaches.

(4)
He showed right at the outset that he does have some recruiting chops. If it is impossible to fail running an offense with Reggie Bush (but, of course, not Knowshon Moreno) as your tailback, well then it will be pretty darn tough to fail running an offense with Bryce Brown at the same position.

So, is he a great X’s and O’s coach? Honestly, I really don’t know. But for a guy who has had a had in a great offense before, has had experience running the show at the pro level, and who has enough sense to surround himself with the best coaches in the business….I think it is fair to say he isn’t stupid. Yeah, he pops off. But that doesn’t make him stupid. Heck, my moniker is kidbourbon, but that doesn't mean I swill Jim Beam all day.

In view of the above, I respectfully conclude that Kiffin will succeed as the head coach of the University of Tennessee Volunteers. And let the record show that I would stake my life on that (if forced to).

KB

P.S. -- Joel: are there any recommended guidelines for inclusion vs. exclusion of "The Jump" in a fanpost? I didn't use "The Jump" because I figured any who is reading this has already clicked on one link...why make them click on another. But to the extent that you ever want to bump a fanpost of mine to the main page, feel free to use full discretion in inserting "The Jump." My brother is a journalist, and so I have been well-informed on the importance of page aesthetics.

[Note by Joel, 06/10/09 3:25 PM EDT ] No real rule. Guideline is about 300 words before the jump -- something like that. Enjoyed the post.

FanPosts are most often submitted by users. The views and opinions expressed in FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions held by the editorial staff of Rocky Top Talk or SB Nation.

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Comments

It is not like Kiffin is Steve Kragthorpe or anything

He might be an idiot when it comes to the rules, but he can coach.

If peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.

by btcoop71 on Jun 10, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hear you

Kiffin, Chizik, and Mullen will make this one helluva year to remember in the SEC — no one really knows how any of these guys will do.

"What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference - the precious present moment." -Nick Saban

by HarveyBirdmanAAL on Jun 10, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No one knows for sure

But I have formulated an educated guess about how Chizik will fare against Kiffin.

by kidbourbon on Jun 10, 2009 5:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He will fare poorly, I imagine

"What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference - the precious present moment." -Nick Saban

by HarveyBirdmanAAL on Jun 10, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Somewhere between poorly and quite poorly

by kidbourbon on Jun 10, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if Auburn fans have Kiffin-envy

I just imagine them saying, "Tennessee gets Kiffin and ESPN is all over them, and we have Chizik, I’m going to go take a nap now " followed by the sound of crickets.

now with less meyton panning.

by Pride of the Southland on Jun 11, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice job

I even thought “oh snap!” once or twice reading that

by VolBrian on Jun 10, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

off topic...

but when will bryce brown enroll?

by AJ12 on Jun 10, 2009 6:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

From what I understand...

He has enrolled; he has been seen working out and doing passing drills with other players; he came to campus in excellent shape; and several players have said that he is “the real deal.”

by kidbourbon on Jun 10, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great color, sir. More of that as the summer unfolds for those of us in the hinterlands.

by memphispete on Jun 10, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and what is a 'hinterland' anyway?

by memphispete on Jun 10, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two things

I have a post of my own brewing on this topic for TSK‘s Tennessee preview week, so I’m not going to tip my hand too much. Just two things:

My response to point (b) is that it is possible to not have success with an offense that includes two first round draft picks at the skill positions. Just ask Mark Richt.

I get what you’re saying and the overarching point behind it, but USC had a lot more on offense in 2005 than Georgia had last year. USC’s offense had eight guys taken in the ‘06 draft and three more in the ’07 draft. UGA had just three in the ’09 draft, and I can’t imagine they’ll come close to eight in the ’10 draft to match the Trojans from that year.

Your point stands about how being an offensive coordinator is challenging regardless of talent level, but don’t undersell that USC offense. It was one of the absolute best ever, and for that matter, it was wildly successful. It was the Trojan defense’s inability to stop Vince Young and Texas that cost them the game and national title. 38 points should be enough to beat anybody if you have a championship-caliber defense.

And on top of all that, how many examples of coaches failing in the pro’s but winning in college do we have to see before we all come to the collective conclusion that success at the NFL level is in no way relevant to success at the collegiate level.

The list of NFL guys who have succeeded in college is a lot shorter than the list of NFL guys who have failed in college. Becoming a successful coach is hard; if it was easy, then everyone would be a legend. For every Pete Carroll you’ve got a bunch of guys like Sly Croom, Bill Callahan, and Al Groh who were hired from the NFL and either have failed, or have done nothing of note.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jun 10, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In your currently brewing post...

…how many times have you referred to Kiffin as “Boy Wonder”? 6? 7? Don’t be shy, man. Go for double digits.

I am glad that you get — and even agree with — the overarching point in the first quoted portion. I am not sure where you get that I am underselling USC’s offense. I am most decidedly not, as that would undermine my own argument.

Regarding the second quoted portion: Sly Croom was never an NFL head coach…I don’t know why you mentioned him. The other two guys you have listed did fail at the college level. Fair enough. Some coaches that fail in the NFL become bad college coaches. Some coaches that fail in the NFL become really good college coaches. Never once in my article did I make a claim that Kiffin would be a good college coach solely because he was once a pro coach. Rather, my point is that a statement to the effect of “Lane Kiffin didn’t win with the Raiders, so he won’t win with the Vols” is surely being uttered by a true moron.

by kidbourbon on Jun 10, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zero

I have never called Kiffin “Boy Wonder.” My colleague cocknfire uses that phrase, but I don’t.

The reason I brought up Croom is that from 1987 to his hiring in Starkville he was an NFL assistant. That may not be head coach experience, but that’s 17 years. It’s enough to count him as an NFL guy.

I know that it wasn’t a main point of your article; it was a nit pick at best. Just consider it some constructive criticism to help you make your argument better the next time it comes around.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jun 10, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post

A response here. The last item, mostly because I wanted people to be able to skip it if they were Kiffin-weary.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jun 11, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also ...

If you don’t mind, drop me an email at garnetandblackattack ~~-at~~- gmail ~~-dot~~- com. I’ve got an idea I’d like to bounce off you.

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jun 11, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The crossouts were not intended

Freaking easy HTML

Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.

by cocknfire on Jun 11, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just dropped you one

I think I got the address correct. I guess we’ll know soon enough.

by kidbourbon on Jun 11, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No worries

Believe me, my arguments would have been much better if I hadn’t written that entire thing in like 20 minutes. And I’m not even kidding. It was stream-of-conscious.

I had posted a brief comment to Kyle’s article the night before…basically saying that his article amounted to nothing more than a baseless and unpersuasive assumption (in a respectful way, of course). I check back the next morning and he has responded to my comment with some additional baseless, unpersuasive assumptions and a challenge to actually present some persuasive arguments rather than just telling him that his were unpersuasive. It didn’t take much more prodding than that. Deadlines Schmeadshmines, I was responding to the comment. And I did.

Tightly crafted it was not, but I think I hit all my points. And I got in a nice dig on Mark Richt too.

Your colleague cocknfire OVERuses that phrase, which might be acceptable (or merely tolerable) if said phrase was funny or clever. Not busting on your boy, just some constructive criticism.

by kidbourbon on Jun 10, 2009 9:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, you’ll probably be interested in what I have to say. I’ve been planning it for while since with a topic so controversial, you really only get one shot to bring all your thoughts together.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jun 11, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am already interested

Sounds juicy.

by kidbourbon on Jun 11, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice counterpoints

But I think this sort of underscores the problem:

Yeah, everything that indicates he might fail can be nullified.

But there also isn’t anything substantial that says he won’t fail. I’m pretty well resiged to just waiting it out and seeing what happens.

My best case prediction is that he is successful and we’re competing for SEC titles again. Worst case is that he turns out to be Ron Zook and we end up with a whole lot of talent.

by Prometheus1185 on Jun 11, 2009 12:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

….the team did improve.

Yes, the Raiders improved under Kiffin.
And should the Vols go 6-6 and 7-5 over the next few years, it shall be seen as an improvement… HUZZAH.. and all of the SEC East will be okay with this

by knowshon loves legos on Jun 11, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dig at Richt

Georgia’s offense last year was one of the best we ever had going by yards and points. Only in the loss to Florida did we have a bad showing—it was the defense that let us down. Stafford set the school record for touchdowns in a season, and Knowshon went for 1,400 yards, more than the year before.

The Kiffin stuff is all conjecture, you’re right, but Kyle’s point is that based on the evidence, of which there is precious little, there are more negatives than positives. As far as expectations go, expecting him to fail is more logical. I’m echoing someone over at Dawgsports, but if recruiting was all it took Orgeron would still be at Ole Miss and Zook would still be at Florida.

postscript: comparing Bryce Brown to Knowshon is kind of ridiculous, don’t you think? Brown hasn’t played a down of college ball. Not to mention comparing him to Reggie Bush, which is just insane.

by wesgiglio on Jun 11, 2009 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not at all unreasonable to compare Brown to Moreno or Bush.

You just have to compare apples to apples. We can most certainly compare Brown’s projections and metrics right now to those of Moreno and Bush when they were incoming freshmen. Most comparisons I’ve come across (which admittedly are likely not many of them) were of that nature.

But obviously comparing a post-college career to one that hasn’t happened is not reasonable. You have to have data first and nobody here would argue that point.

Between the two, you can look for correlation between incoming metrics and career performance and see what that tells you for a projection. But even then, you’re comparing a projection of Brown to a projection of Moreno or Bush. It’s just that the real data from Moreno and Bush are a part of the model used to make the projection. That’s probably where the confusion comes in.

And the same can be said for Kiffin’s chances of success. And everybody’s models are so ill-defined as to be considered arbitrary. Personally, I don’t mind if some people think the tea leaves tell them that he’ll fail and others think the chicken’s feet tell them that he’ll succeed. It’s not like anybody’s bothering to test their model for validity.

by Hooper on Jun 11, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But if I don't have arbitary models how will I have models?

Seriously, you’re destroying the non-existent theoretical argument, hoop.

by Graysnail on Jun 11, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

arbitrary*

all that work for nothing

by Graysnail on Jun 11, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

heh

Nah. Just going all crusty-stats-guy on it. I have no problem with arbitary models either, to be honest. I just tend to hit a wall after a while with it, become no fun for a bit, spout something like that off, and return to the normal world. It’s kinda cathartic, really. Odd, too.

by Hooper on Jun 11, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just noticed you already made this argument for me

Thanks.

by kidbourbon on Jun 12, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe McKnight projected to be Reggie Bush too. Whoops.

That’s why I never count on true freshmen for much when making preseason projections. You never truly know what they’ll end up being that first year.

Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog

by Year2 on Jun 12, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely.

And if the projections were always right, I wouldn’t bother following college football. It’d just be too boring.

But that’s a lot of the fun of the whole thing – trying to see if we can anticipate the future based on things we see today. I don’t mind being wrong when I do that. Heck, I was probably the loudest and longest champion of the Clawfense on this site prior to last year.

by Hooper on Jun 12, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair, McKnight IS Reggie Bush

When it comes to NCAA ’09.

by Graysnail on Jun 12, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is kinda responsive to your post

Stafford’s number. Moreno’s numbers. Irrelevant. First round skill-position talent * 2 on a team that has consistently recruited with the very elite got you three wins when you were ranked #1 preseason. What were you saying about numbers again?

Georgia was hyped last year. Number 1 preseason, right? I knew better, because I know Richt is the most overrated coach in hte game. I went on record pre-season, saying both vehemently and repeatedly, that Georgia would lose three games. If you don’t believe me, I will honestly be happy to pull up time stamped emails, blog comment entries, and multiple message board posts to confirm my very sound prediction. Why was I so confident that Georgia would lose three games? Because that’s what Georgia does. I love Mark Richt. His butt-cutt is what really turns me on.

I guess what I am saying is that even if Kiffin did deserve criticism, UGA fans — with their ostrich in the sand blindness to the canyon-like discrepancy between the elite talent Richt brings in and the consistently mediocre results he is able to produce with said elite talent — are probably not the gang who should be casting stones. Ya dig?

For me, the true beauty is that, from what I can tell, Richt is there to say. Yes, Georgia fans, be proud of the fact that you root for the most elite mediocre program in the country. And that this will not change in the near future.

And, finally, Bryce Brown. Brown is the top rated running back since Adrian Peterson. — higher rated than both Bush and Moreno. Also, I have seen many a clip on the man, and he’s….well….ridiculously good. There is nothing to suggest that this kid is anything but the real deal. So, to the extent you think any of my remarks about Mr. Brown were insane. I would simply respond “Uh, no.”

One more thing. UGA will lose four games this year — going 8-4. Kifin will go 9-3, and then I doubt I’ll be seeing you on this blog again.

by kidbourbon on Jun 12, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I love it.

And attempting to compare Moreno to Reggie Bush is off the mark anyhow. He’s got nothing on Bush and Peterson. I’ll reserve the wait and see attitude fort Bryce Brown…

by VolBrian on Jun 12, 2009 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

Are you sure it’s not the most mediocre elite program?

by NCT on Jun 12, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought about that

could go either way

by kidbourbon on Jun 14, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yikes

Obviously this has upset you. I’ll go down the list.

1) What was I saying about numbers again? What I was saying about numbers is that going by numbers, actual data, actual yards gained and touchdowns scored—you know, reality—Stafford and Moreno did very well last year. Better than the year before. As for the pre-season number one ranking: PRE-season number one ranking. This is a number that does not reflect reality. It is a number that reflects expectations. Obviously you guys are much more comfortable using these kinds of numbers (we’ll call them “meaningless numbers”). I can only guess why. We had three losses, indeed we did. These are real numbers, but, as I explained before, only one had anything to do with the offense.

2) Richt is the most overrated coach in the game. Whatever. I guess four SEC East titles, two SEC titles, and more ten win seasons in his tenure than anybody but USC IS overrated. I think we both know that if Kiffin replicated these numbers the Tennessee faithful would be dehydrated from all the tonguebaths.

3) Canyon-like discrepancy? Dude. I guess a record of 82-22 is pretty mediocre. And that bowl record! 6-2? Slacker. All that wasted elite talent. He’s only coached two heisman winners and the winningest quarterback in the history of the the game! Loo-ser. I had a couple stones sitting here I was gonna cast—Kiffin’s 5-15 record, his bad habit of insulting recruits and high schools and running off players and accusing folks of cheating cause he’s too stupid to know the rules—but I’ll lay ‘em right down. I guess I’d be a hypocrite to imagine one of the most succesful coaches of the last decade is any better than an unproven commodity.

4) I don’t really know what to say about the Bryce Brown stuff. It’s like arguing with a child who insisted Jeff Francouer was going to be the greatest player in Braves history because he had such an auspicious beginning, and darn it, he just really really likes him, a lot, and he’s so handsome, he just looks so good. Bryce Brown looks awesome in these high school games! So it’s legitimate to say he’ll be as good as Knowhsone Moreno and Reggie Bush! Oh, and he was rated a few spots higher, so he’ll actually probably be better. It’s pretty galling to be called an ostrich in the sand when the guy you’re talking to honestly thinks high school footage and recruiting service numbers are the equal of actual production on the field over a period of years.

5) I remember the last time Georgia won 8 games under Coach Richt. We were starting an unproven quarterback in Knoxville. Something about stepping on their face with a hobnail boot and breaking their nose…I don’t know, the memory is foggy, we haven’t faired that poorly in about eight years. 8-4 is a definite possiblity. I think a little higher, but reasonable men can disagree. As for Tennesse, I think 5-7 is a little more accurate.

Hey, if I’m not welcome on your blog, let me know. It was not my intention to sully it’s logical, high quality discourse.

by wesgiglio on Jun 13, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs