1) UT won’t contend for a National Championship this year. UT will be fortunate to win the SEC East. KY is L-O-A-D-E-D. Sweet Sixteen is more reasonable because seeding will be a little depressed if we end up 2nd in SEC East. I was not impressed with JP’s effort level or Chism’s focus last year. For us to contend, they have to give great effort.

2) UT will have to rebuild, but pay attention to the new recruits… Kenny Hall is a Top 100 4* Forward 6’8" and should contribute early. Class of 2010 has 3rd best 5* PG Josh Selby and 6th best 4* shooting guard Jordan McRae. And, Bruce & the guys are in the mix for a whole stack of 4* and 5* recruits. Wish we hadn’t lost Craft. A good year this season will help that immensely.

3) Scotty won’t leave early (next yr), IMO. I think Scotty wants a year where it’s HIS team. He may go pro, but I think it would help his draft stock to put up some all world numbers. I don’t think he’s ready to do that this year, but I do expect marked improvement in impact. Last year, he was a role playing freshman – not a 5* impact player.

4) The core left behind won’t be bad either. Tatum and Negedu should be much stronger players. Williams may always be a role player but I hope he learns to play mean, grab boards and dunk on people b/c he could take over games with his size. We’ll have to see about Wool. He’s big enough but… And, our walk-on shooting guard is going to be pretty good, I think.

So, there may be a drop off but not as steep as you suggest. I don’t think the cupboard will be bare enough to motivate a departure.

One of the problems Pearl faced in recruiting was the knock of “Who did you send to the league?” Coach Calipari does not have that problem, nor does Coach Donovan. Despite the success of the Jerry Green era, you have to go back to Wade Houston’s son to find a star on UT who went on to star in the NBA. Vincent Yarborough, Lofton, Haislip, etc. etc. all made more money overseas than here in the US (I know that we have 2 on rosters now but I stand by my statement). Scotty Hopson could blossom into a player who could be an NBA star. Tyler Smith will be better than any of the previous vols in the NBA currently. Chism will make a roster. Prince has an outside shot at making a roster.

When Tyler Smith is a lottery pick because UT beats some teams with guys that scouts are high on and they can picture him in the league, this team will not get drafted as well as Florida’s Joakim Noah team but it will be somewhat similar. That will enable Pearl to bring in absolute studs in next years class.

After Pearl has coached them up, next years team will be okay but not great but with his style of play and his recruiting UT will have freshman talent coming in a year from now that rivals everyone (although not as amazing as the haul UK has this year). When your game plan is teaching the kids to press and deny inbounds passes, it does not take long to coach up HS guys to thrive in your system. What Pearl has been denied that he needs to make his system EXCEL is a stud PG who is fast as blazes, can shoot the 3 and can run out his steals for dunks. That kind of a kid will be attracted to Pearls system and when he has them, they will by themself get TN into the tournament.

Florida and Kentucky are through sucking. TN will be in a division where we will be playing a tough OOC schedule followed by a vastly improved conference slate. All 3 teams will end this year in the tournament, and all 3 will have good seeds (6 or better). That is because they will be much better against their OOC slate as a group.

Bruce will be here until at least when his daughter graduates and if he is close to getting back to the Final Four in 2012 and finishing what the team fell short of this season, I expect you will see him until then. Pearl is a one man show who has a good relationship with the alums, with his AD and with the community. Expectations here at UT are not as high as they would be any other place he went that would be an improvement as a job (UCLA, PITT, NCSTATE etc). Bottom line also is that when Pearl puts the right team together, he would be hard pressed to find a revenue machine set up as well as Thompson Boling is.

NBADraft.net – Tyler #22 (non-lottery) – He’s gotta be a 3 in the pros. Not sure he shoots well enough or is quick enough to stick, although he’s obviously a very good college player.

JP #51 (2nd Round) – Gets a nod because he can do the little things to fill up the stats sheet, can create his drives and because of his cousin. Not sure if he has the desire to play every night or the outside shot to stick, either.

DraftExpress .com has Tyler in the 2nd round (#44) & JP is not in the top 60.

Neither has Scotty, who has to develop a TON before he’s seriously included. I agree he has the potential, and we saw too-brief flashes of it last year, but he has to be a dominant, top 10 scorer in the SEC to get a serious look.

Until we get a dominant point guard (as you say) and a powerful inside game OR a raft of quick rangy guys who can press & defend, Sweet 16 is about all we can expect. And, that is a pretty amazing thing to say after growing up a UT fan with decades of mediocrity.

THANK YOU, BRUCE PEARL!!!

I guess I should have clarified that I see us going deep in the tournament. I also know that the tournament produces draft choices that make no sense. Curry is going to have trouble getting his shot off in the NBA, but after lighting up teams in the tournament two years in a row he was drafted sooo high. If TN gets to the Final Four this year, along the way Smith will have some great passes, rebounds, steals and shots. Same for Chism, same for JP Prince. If Hopson absolutely stars (between Lofton numbers and Houston numbers) next year on a team that has taken a step back, he will also be drafted (like Jodie Meeks who started that season on no ones draft board).

College basketball is funny in that a guy can go from not drafted to lottery pick based on one season of play.

This year we’ll be good. It could be a long while before we are this good again.