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Lane Kiffin, John Calipari & The Weight of Expectation

 
I've been staying in Lexington for the past month, working on my master's and enjoying civilization.  And it doesn't take long in the Bluegrass to figure out that people there are as passionate about UK Basketball as we are about UT Football:  a certain shade of blue colors everything, and the upcoming football season seems like merely the appetizer for what everyone is really waiting for.

In such a place, there are plenty of ways to spend your hard earned money to show your support.  And most of them this time of year involve John Calipari's name and/or likeness:  t-shirts that say things like "CALIPARI'S CATS" or "RESPECT OUR PAST, FEAR OUR FUTURE", you know the drill.

But a few weeks ago, I saw one particular t-shirt that really caught my eye.  I went back on Friday to look for it, and to my dismay couldn't locate it at several stores in the mall or at Dick's Sporting Goods.  On my last stop on the way out of town, I went by Wildcat Wearhouse, and there she was: 

008_medium

(Side note:  the good people at Wildcat Wearhouse in Hamburg Place are having a buy one get one free sale, and upon hearing this my brain instantly does what one's does when you hear you're going to get something free...until I realize that there is literally nothing I want in this store.  So some UK friends of mine are about to reap the benefits, times two.)

The woman behind the counter tells me that they've sold a lot of these shirts, which might account for my inability to find them anywhere else.  And I merely wonder aloud if anyone sees anything wrong with this picture.

I don't care if UK fans want to build up Johnny C before he ever coaches a game in Lexington.  It just makes me nervous, because I can easily envision the same shirt being sold 165 miles south in a certain shade of orange.

Two weeks ago, Tru and our friends at A Sea of Blue asked the question, "What does success look like in Calipari's first year?"  They polled their substantial group of readers and asked them to define success for UK Basketball in 2009-10.

The leading vote getter?  The Final Four.

Kentucky went 22-14 last season.  8-8 in the SEC, good for a tie for fourth place in the SEC East.  They did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament, lost their best player to the NBA (I did not buy one of those Jodie Meeks "WITNESS" shirts, which no doubt are equally popular), and their head coach was not retained.

And the majority of voting readers at ASOB think that success in the following season is defined by the Final Four.

Again, their fans are free to expect away.  But what appears to be such an imbalance between reality and expectation to the outside eye (and really, it's not an unbiased outside eye - as a UT fan, I'm required to dislike both UK basketball and John Calipari, so adjust accordingly) makes me wonder if we have expectations of similar imbalance for Lane Kiffin and his first season.

So for us...what does success look like for Lane Kiffin in his first season?  In 2009, what's a good year for Tennessee Football? 

Star-divide

We are more similar than we'd like to admit, UT and UK fans, and it's more than just our passion.  Consider:

  • Kentucky Basketball and Tennessee Football are both programs of incredible tradition with a history of great success.
  • Both suffered through their least successful season in decades last year, with UT missing a bowl game and UK missing the NCAA Tournament.
  • Both sent their head coach packing.
  • Both made coaching hires that have garnered consistent national attention.
  • Lane Kiffin and John Calipari are both unproven against their primary SEC competition, both were fired from their only professional coaching role, and both have opposing fans counting down the days to their first NCAA violation.  We mean the primary ones, of course.
  • Both have had an immediate impact on recruiting, bringing Rivals' #1 player to their campuses.

For Calipari, the bar appears to be set astronomically - and immediately - high.  I'm sure it's incredibly easy to buy into the "We're Back" mindset.  Because I'm terrified of how easy it might be for us to buy into it.

"Are you really saying that Lane Kiffin might be as good of a hire as John Calipari?!"

No, of course not...because none of us know that yet.

My amusement with the t-shirt, of course, is that you can't be back when your shiny new head coach hasn't put the blue tie on yet.  And when you combine that with the Final Four expectations that are based largely around a new coach and a ton of freshmen...it's going to be a hard year to be John Calipari.

I'm not saying he can't or won't do it.  I'm just saying expectations might be a little unfair.

What about us?

I don't think our bar is going to be quite so high - Jonathan Crompton didn't suit up for Billy Gillispie.  And the Cats don't have to deal with anything similar to the 2009 Florida Gators. 

But generally, our year-to-year expectations are equally high.  They're part of what cost Phillip Fulmer his job.  And they're part of what Lane Kiffin must answer to.  What's a good year for Tennessee in 2009?  How will we define success?

The lower end of that conversation sits at 6-6...because six wins would be an improvement.  The most level-headed and pessimistic among us may already be bought into a multi-year rebuilding project and have been spending too many long nights with the '08 game film.

Or maybe it's simply a return to a bowl game, which 7-5 would ensure.  It would be a tangible improvement over '08, and maybe we have to work our way back up the ladder for a few years.

8-4 sounds like the logical middle ground...which doesn't mean much in August.  Eight wins would have to include at least one or two victories over quality SEC competition, some wins to hang our hats on en route to the Music City, Chick-Fil-A or Outback Bowls.  Maybe I can't see well from behind my own orange-colored glasses, but I think this is about what the nation at large expects from us.

9-3 means some good things happened, and would almost certainly get the Vols back to January.  It would give Kiffin a definitive quality start, something that could be remembered even if the Vols struggled in 2010.  If it came with expected losses to Florida and Alabama, it would still mean that the Vols took care of business against the teams they usually take care of business against, which would help in recruiting.

10-2 is what you can talk yourself into once you realize that only Alabama and Florida are definitely better than the Vols...you know, since the Ole Miss game isn't until mid-November, and they'll surely have fallen apart by then, right?  There's no one else on our schedule that we can't give a run for their money...so hey, let's just win them all, right?  This would be the happiest we've been to see Orlando in quite some time...

And of course...the closer it gets to the season, the easier it becomes to talk yourself into Atlanta, rings...and what ends up being the ultimate reality in my gut in the hours before kickoff:  we're Tennessee, we're supposed to win every week, and why should this year be different?

It's August, and practice starts Monday morning...where are we?  Are we setting the bar low, comfortable with the idea that even 6-6 would be an improvement?  Or are we printing our own t-shirts, ready to sing Rocky Top all night long?

Whatever the answer is, the head coach will have to deal with those expectations.  And both Kiffin and Calipari knew that when they signed on the dotted line.  Did the last few years of the Fulmer era serve to lower the expectations that helped show him the door?  Or have we also been convinced that the new guy is the right guy, and he's the right guy right now...even if he hasn't coached a game yet.

Poll
What's a successful year for Tennessee Football in 2009?
6-6...because that would be an improvement
17 votes
7-5 and a bowl game, any bowl game
107 votes
8-4 with a couple of nice wins and a mid-tier bowl
269 votes
9-3 and a finish in the Top 25
212 votes
10-2 and a big January bowl game
36 votes
11-1 and a championship or BCS at-large bid
7 votes
12-0 and the National Championship
19 votes

667 votes | Poll has closed

2 recs  |  Comment 33 comments |

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Aaaand the first 12-0 tally is marked!

That didn’t take long. :-)

The one big difference between UT and UK is that football can’t be turned around within one year; basketball can. UK could always go the Michigan Fab 5 route with a newly remodeled team because (a) it’s easier for new players to plug into a basketball team than a football team, and (b) you only need about 8 solid players to have a strong tourney team in basketball, unlike the dozens needed in football.

But yes, there are two fanbases with huge rebuilding expectations. And we’re only 2 years behind our friends to the south (and in sync with our other friends to the south).

by Hooper on Aug 1, 2009 6:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would've beat that voter to the punch

If we took this poll the day before the season started. Hopefully 35 days out we get a clearer representation…maybe….

And you’re right, UK might get to the Final Four, it’s certainly not impossible and it’s much more likely than us being one of the four best teams in college football next year. My question for the UK faithful would be, what if Kentucky finishes second in the East and goes to the Sweet 16? That’s a drastic improvement over last year…but would that be enough to satisfy?

by Will on Aug 1, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fab 5 route

I fully expect them to go the Fab Five route, right down to the vacated wins a few years down the road…

Lou Brock loves Lamp.

by birdjam on Aug 2, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

false

I marked 9-3, but i wholeheartdly believe we can get stuff turned around in a year. Here’s what it will take:
1. A stingy defense
2. A decent offense that makes plays when it has to and doesnt give the ball away
3. A side of luck. No 32 yd missed field goals in overtime this year.

by cincyvol6198 on Aug 1, 2009 7:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Easy to Chalk Those Points Up

A lot harder to have it on the field.

I’m always one to have big expectations from my Vols teams. I don’t care who, or what, they play, I always think that they can win. I always give them the benefit of the doubt. Yet I put “7-5” .. why? Because that is success. I don’t see 6-6 as good. That’s not a wining season. I expect a 7-5 record each and every year from my Vols, because if I keep up those ludicrous expectations I’ll miss the bigger picture that, if we go 7-5 in year 1, that is a 2 game swing. If we go 9-3 year 2, I’ll still be thrilled. I do expect improvement, and like shelton said if this poll went up right before game 1 I’d have probably said “YEE-HAW 14-01one” but .. I don’t believe that everything wrong with the offense last year was the system, and I don’t think our wonderful freshman class will be good enough to make us that good.

Let’s take it in perspective .. what were your expectations for Bruce Pearl when he came in? Remember how thrilled we were to head to the NCAA tournament that year? Well, I remember how thrilled I was, and most of that “OMG PEARL!!” has come from the fact that he had very little in the way of expectations, and did much, much better than his predecessor. Honestly, I think that we’d have been a good team if we had kept Peterson around another year — remember, T. Smith was going to come our way before Pearl came along, and we still had Lofton and JJ. That’s one helluva combo. Don’t get me wrong, though, I love Pearl and am so glad we have him. Just sayin’ ..

Trust me, I understand all there is about wanting to think your team can do the best. But I’ve found that, for the unknown, you should set your bar at the lowest possible point you can honestly stand, and then anything better builds on expectations for the next year. Think the 07-08 season, no one had that high of expectations I don’t think, so a trip to the SEC championship game and a Bowl Win of the Badgerbadgerbadgerbadgerbadgers was a nice suprise.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 1, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's an interesting point about UT basketball

Mike Hamilton said before that he needed an evangelist when he hired Pearl, someone to make everyone care. The weekend of Pearl’s very first game was the same weekend we lost to Vanderbilt in football, and I remember being generally overwhelmed and numb towards the whole program. But he got us to believe by beating Texas, and then good things kept happening.

It would be great for Kiffin to get one of those “make us believe” wins in his first year, and it doesn’t have to be Florida. We’ll talk about this more later, but there’s an incredibly important progression from UCLA-Auburn-Georgia…each game becomes more difficult, but all three are winnable, and winning one makes the next one that much more important. If the Vols win the first two, even if we lose to Florida, I think the Georgia game (if their schedule hasn’t gotten the best of them) will be Kiffin’s chance to make real noise in his first year. Because if we start 5-1…well, that’s like we never left, right?

And remember…bad years are one thing, but we haven’t missed bowl games in consecutive years since ‘77-’78. We bounced back strong after bad years in ‘02 and ’05 right away in September. All this rambling to say, I think there’s more emotional roller coaster at play with this team than most get with first year head coaches.

by Will on Aug 1, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Badgerbadgerbadgerbadgerbadgers

I see what you did there… ;-)

by Hooper on Aug 1, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

80% say 8-4 or better.

Now that’s a disconnect from reality. I think the factor of the defense having to learn a new system is being way underplayed.

by danmarcel on Aug 1, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm really really curious about that myself.

We see “Monte Kiffin” and “returning top defense” and it’s just too easy for the brain to sync those two tidbits into “Leviathan Juggernaut Hellbeast of the Apocalypse”. Now, I can’t imagine the defensive growing pains will be anything like last year’s offense, but I hope we at least recognize the possibility.

I’m being very hands-off about predicting the defense for that reason.

by Hooper on Aug 1, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Disconnect from reality"?

I really don’t think it is a disconnect from reality to not consider 7-5 “a success.” Yeah, last year was bad and we are changing over staffs, but with Tennessee’s talent we should be able to win 7 games in our sleep, year in and year out. 7-5 will probably be fine with most Vol fans but I don’t think anyone would be jumping up and down about it. So I voted that 8-4 would be considered a success. (Which wouldn’t be true in most years. How the mighty have fallen…)

Lou Brock loves Lamp.

by birdjam on Aug 2, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

WKU, Ohio, and Memphis are the only three “gimmes.” And we really better not overlook Ohio… they gave tOSU all they wanted last year.

UCLA, Auburn, UK, and Vandy will be games that we, in my opinion, should win, but they aren’t guaranteed.

UGA and USC are tossups.

UF, UA, and Ole Miss will obviously be games in which we are heavy underdogs (based on now, things could change as the season progresses).

I think 7 wins is likely, but I hardly think we can do it “in our sleep.”

by rblakeh on Aug 2, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The "in our sleep" comment was not made with this year's specific schedule in mind...

… more of a general level of performance to be expected by the fanbase based on the last 20-25 years. And there is a difference in my mind between what would be considered “a success” and what is actually going to happen or what this team is capable of. While winning 7 games could rightly be seen as an accomplishment, I don’t think the fans will consider it a “success” (unless the seven wins were to somehow include Florida and/or Bama…)

Lou Brock loves Lamp.

by birdjam on Aug 2, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we have so much talent...

…then how have the mighty fallen? Out of the anti-Fulmer crowd the past year or five, the number one complaint I’ve heard is how our talent level has dropped so precipitously the past seven years or so. And yet now we expect CLK to come in and bull-dog his way to 8 wins with the same talent? (note: I discount the lunatics whose complain with Fulmer was that he couldn’t coach – this is patently ridiculous, and I don’t even dignify it with a response). But let’s take it game by game:

Western Kentucky – Should win
UCLA – Toss up
At Florida – Likely loss
Ohio University – Should win
Auburn – Should win
Georgia – Likely loss
At Alabama – Likely loss
South Carolina – Toss up
Memphis – Should win
At Ole’ Miss – Likely loss
Vanderbilt – Should win
At Kentucky – Toss up

I tally 4 should wins, 4 likely losses, and 4 toss ups. Best case scenario 8-4, worst case 4-8. Right down the middle would be 6-6, so I figure 7-5 is winning all the games you ought, none of the games you oughn’t, and 75% of the toss ups. For a first year coach, who is likely going to be playing a quite a few freshman and installing a new defense, yes, I’d say 7-5 is a success. 6-6 would be neither success nor failure. 5-7 or worse would be disappointing, and 8-4 or better would be ecstatic.

by danmarcel on Aug 2, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As with the "in our sleep" comment (see above,)...

… the talent level comment was not specific to this year but the general level of talent UT has enjoyed over the past decade or more.

The original question was what would be considered a “success” – the widely varying responses make it obvious that everyone defines success differently. Winning the games you should win does not equal success to me personally. And it will be a cold day in hell before I consider Kentucky a “toss-up” game.

As I posted above, while winning 7 games could rightly be seen as an accomplishment, I don’t think the fans will consider it a "success" (unless the seven wins were to somehow include Florida and/or Bama…) I think 7-5 is what people are expecting at the very least. That may be unfair, but that’s how it is.

Lou Brock loves Lamp.

by birdjam on Aug 2, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly

I label UCLA as a “Should Win” personally. UCLA had a worse season than we did last year, overall, and I think us Tennessee fans are giving them too much of the doubt. Our team is more talented this year, was more talented last year, and most importantly the game is at home. If it were out on the west coast I’d label is a “tossup” but in Neyland? No-how no-way. I will be extremely disappointed if we can’t beat UCLA. And I also agree with Birdjam that I think Kentucky is a “should win” as well.

As for Ohio, yeah they were competitive for 3 quarters against the Bucks but, if I recall right, that was the game that What’s-His-Face RB for Ohio State was injured, and before they were consistently playing Pryor. Expecting an Ohio State team without the starting running back and a scrambling quarterback to play well is like cutting a leg off of a three-legged dog and telling him to start doing cartwheels when, in honesty, we all know that all they can do is bang their head into things, stick their tongue out, and tinkle on their sides.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 2, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, bobo

What’d you vote? I’ve learned to stick with whatever the bob’ster predicts!

by Hooper on Aug 2, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rofl. I hope you don't ...

I picked 7-5, since — like I said — I like to set expectations for the unknown as low as I can possibly handle. Honestly, I think we’ll go 8-4 or 9-3, but I suppose I’d be content with a winning record during the regular season.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 2, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I concurred with the bobo.

Of course, I concurred before he posted so there’s that. It’s good to know that I’ll be right, though. ;)

Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs

by Graysnail on Aug 2, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Go Ole Mississippi State.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 2, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We should make t-shirts

“I was there the night Bostrodamus was born”

by Will on Aug 2, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't do autographs....

…. for free $wink wink nudge nudge cha-ching$

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 3, 2009 5:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From all I know

Defense’s are far, far easier to implement that a new offense, because the basics of a good defense are all the same: do your job within the system, tackle, hit the blam! out of the other players. Factor the fact that Monte Kiffin’s defense is anchored by the Strong Safety, who just happens to have a heisman campaign going for him now, and I think most people expect good things.

Do I think they will be as good as they were last year? Honestly, probably not quite. But I don’t think there will be the sort of drop off in performance that there was like our offense last year. Not to mention that, from what I’ve heard, Senior Kiffin’s system isn’t anything horribly complex. I heard some people trying to argue that Monte’s defense relies on all sorts of blah blah blah stuff that you can’t do in the NCAA that you can in the NFL blah blah blah but, being a fan of the Buc’s divisional rival’s the Panthers, I can say that what usually stuck out in my mind after playing the Buc’s is that they are a well coached defense.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 2, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love how

no one is voting for the 11-1 option…if you’re gonna be that crazy, you just go straight to the top.

by Will on Aug 2, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You can't go all in

By leaving 1 chip on the table.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 2, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very good article

rec’d

I think the sweet 16 is a reasonable goal for Cal and UK this year.

I also think 7 wins and a bowl is reasonable for UT this year.

If peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.

by btcoop71 on Aug 2, 2009 7:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’d have to agree that it’s a reasonable goal, but is that the minimum a Kentucky fan will determine the season a “success”? Honestly, I’d say “win a game in the dance” would be my goal if I were a Kentucky fan. Of course, I also wouldn’t have a soul and wouldn’t have been alive last time we beat Tennessee in Football*, so thank God I’m not.

 * I was just kidding here. Chillax. *
 
* I really wasn’t kidding here.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 2, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd agree, think Sweet 16 is very respectable

Anytime UK gets bumped on the first weekend, I’m sure it doesn’t sit well, so I think he’ll need to do that for any measure of “success” even if they win the SEC East/conf/tournament.

by Will on Aug 2, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's Funny

I always see simply getting to the tournament and winning a game as a “successful” year. And before anyone claims to say that this is because I’m a Tennessee fan and don’t have any decent standards, I’ll let you know that I’ve been born & raised 15 minutes from Wake Forest and about 40 minutes from Duke and NC State and UNC — obviously roughly, but I’m right there on Tobacco Road, and that’s the general gist that I’ve always gotten from the fans of the school.

Like the year George Mason went to the Final Four .. they went through UNC to get there. But the general demeanor of the fans, even right after the game (so before they knew the run George Mason was going to go on) was “dang. Well, we beat Murray State [I did have to look that one up] but it was a rebuilding year so we’ll get ’em here in a year or two.” Even coming off of an National Championship they had realistic expectations for their team.

The next year they made it to the elite eight before being bumped by Oklahoma, and they had much the same reaction. “Just wasn’t our year” .. Two years ago kinda sucked for Tar Heel fans, since lots of them thought that they would definately win it all once they got back to the Final Four, but when they got stormed by Kansas the feeling wasn’t “crap, we blew our chances” it was “this should motivate them for next year” and, finally, the next year their team won the National Championship.

My point is, that since 2005 there might not be a better overall team than the Tar Heels (Florida also won 2 National Champions but now they can’t even get to the Big Dance) but the fans don’t even expect a final four appearance every year. You should see how the Wake Forest fans act, now. They aren’t horribly bitter or bummed, and haven’t been, they are always looking forwards to the next game .. last year they got some of their swag back but still, the general feeling isn’t “Final Four or Bust” it’s just “Play your best” .. which is really all you can ask of your team.

I don’t care, I don’t suppose, if we go 5 – 7 again in football next year, or don’t make the Big Dance in basketball, as long as I can look back over the year and nod my head and say “we might have sucked, but our players played their hearts out.” Which is how about 90% of the die-hard “we bleed basketball” fans around here are. Even fans of opposing schools generally can give people that respect .. When Tar Heels and Blue Devils make fun of the Wolfpack and Demon Deacons, they have to agree when their fans say “Just you wait, we’ll be back” because they believe in their teams, and give them manageable expectations.

I dunno, it might that around here is basketball first, and with so many good and storied programs we’ve come to accept that in Basketball, moreso than Football, anything can (and usually does) happen. A great team can lose a few tough games or get upset in the Tournament when they should have won, and that’s that. I mean, sure I might just be delusional and everything, but it just seems that everyone around here remains up-beat about their teams, no matter what’s going on. Even when UNC was mired in a three or four year absence from the NCAA tournament about 5 years ago, the fans kept the “Just you wait..” mindset, and now they’ve paid off.

So, in that spirit, I suppose I’ll say this to the Florida fans out there: just you wait. It wasn’t that long ago that we were the big boys in the SEC, and given how things usually go, we’ll be back on top of the ladder once again. Until then, I think that we — as fans — can do our best by supporting our team by just grimacing and ducking our head into the wind and driving on through.

And if that didn’t make any sense — well, it’s 5:30am, I’m tired but just woke up, and I’m in a writing mood. But I’ve never claimed to be a good writer.

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 3, 2009 5:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Winning two in March is a bigger reward to me

Simply because then you get an additional week to talk about/feel good about your team. If you win one your season stays alive for 2 more days, win 2 and you get another 5 and more national attention, more recruiting power, etc. Bruce Pearl did it twice and now I’m spoiled.

by Will on Aug 3, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This article made it to GVX!

by bobo_the_vol on Aug 3, 2009 9:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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