Preseason BlogPoll: A Call for Oracles
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 4:00 PM EDT
43 comments
The BlogPoll is back again this year, and Rocky Top Talk is proud to be a voting member yet again. One of the new changes you'll see from us this year is that I'll be taking over the voting duties from Joel, due in part to the restructuring of blogging we've had since Will came aboard. I plan on conducting the poll in much the same way that Joel did in years past - using numerical metrics to guide the selection and then applying human overrides where necessary. But that leaves the age-old problem of how to create preseason rankings when there are no numbers to be had.
Throughout the week, I'm going to assemble my ballot in pieces. First, I'll try to nail down the top 10 (ish) slots, as there is usually a pretty good consensus of the top batch of teams that breaks somewhere around 10. Then I'll work through the 10-20 range, and finally wrap up by deciding who's in and who's out in the final few slots. This is where I could really use some help, though.
Because of the preseason business (recruiting, practices, Media Days, etc.), I haven't kept up with many of the teams in the league like I normally would. I don't put any real stock in preseason polls, but I'd like to submit a well-reasoned ballot to start the show. CBSSports is giving the BlogPoll some great airtime, and we like to think that it has just as much validity as any other poll out there (if not more). So help me out here:
IF YOU WERE TO FILL OUT A PRESEASON BALLOT, WHO WOULD YOUR TOP 10 TEAMS BE?
Leave your answer in the comments below, and I'll take them on board for the preseason BlogPoll ballot. Feel free to discuss beyond the top 10 if you want. It'll all get covered eventually.
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No way they’re in the top 10
Ole Miss – I’m sorry, but I just won’t believe they’re for real until I see it. Ended last year with a string of unimpressive losses. I don’t understand the hype (while acknowledging they may beat us).
Oklahoma State – Also will believe it when I see it. They were supposed to stomp Georgia a couple of years ago and we remember how that worked out.
Bubble
Alabama – lights out defense, and who at quarterback?
—
Other than that, since preseason polls are BS, I’d probably fill it out like the media did since nobody knows what they’re talking about now anyway.
"Florida didnt win their first SEC title until 1991 and now they think they invented football."
-Ron Zook
by rustytanton on Aug 17, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ole Miss won six in a row to end the year last year.
I don’t know what season you were watching. But I agree with you in that Ole Miss won’t win the west.
36-0
by Bamabrave4 on Aug 17, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Must have killed those brain cell drinking the Tennessee Tea last year
That’s what I get for not looking it up before posting.
My memory was they lost to Vandy, South Carolina, and Wake Forest. Tennessee plays the Vandy and SC games later in the year, and I got the timeline mixed up thinking of that.
"Florida didnt win their first SEC title until 1991 and now they think they invented football."
-Ron Zook
by rustytanton on Aug 17, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was just transferrance.
What you really meant to say was:
Ole MissAlabama – I’m sorry, but I just won’t believe they’re for real until I see it. Ended last year with a string of unimpressive losses. I don’t understand the hype (while acknowledging they may beat us).
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
(And yes, Bamabrave4, I keed. Alabama actually ended with a string of impressive losses. In particular, the Utah loss left a pretty good impression on me.)
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My concern with Ole Miss is this:
They lost some very valuable interior talent with the departure of Oher and Jerry. There’s still a lot to look forward to in other players like McCluster and Hardy, but last year’s recruiting class was a marked decline from the previous years. Nutt brought in a bunch of numbers, but the amount that will actually suit up for Ole Miss this year tells a different story.
I think they’re thinner this year than last year, and that’ll make a difference in the back half of their schedule.
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nutt had a pretty good spin on the impossibly large recruiting class
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sec/0-8-102/Kicking-it-with-Houston-Nutt—Part-II.html
I’ve never experienced how many junior colleges we have in this state and want to build some relationships. I know that nine guys want to be at Ole Miss, but I know they’re not going to make it academically. It gives me a chance to make them feel like a part of the family and let me shuffle them out to these different junior colleges and prep schools.
to the young men, I think they look at it more like, ‘I get to sign with Ole Miss, go to JUCO and then come back.’
That said, I don’t think Houston has recruited as well as Coach O. Did Ed ever get his thank you note from the Nutt for leaving the cupboard full?
by memphispete on Aug 18, 2009 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mine...
The obvious ones are:
Florida, USC, Texas, and Oklahoma.
It’s a little unclear after that: can Oklahoma State handle Texas and OU (and Georgia)? Where do Penn State and Ohio State go, and which is first? What other SEC teams make it? Any non-BCS teams start out that high? I think Virginia Tech losing their RB (Evans) for the year takes them out.
My other six would thus be (in no order):
Alabama – because of the defense and Julio Jones, though they have QB and OL questions.
Ohio State – Pryor and most of the defense back
Penn State – still have Clark and Royster and their schedule is a joke
Ole Miss – Snead, and they have some talent thanks to Coach O, all their losses were close last year, and their schedule is manageable.
Cal – they’re 12th in the real poll, but they got 15 starters back (top passer, rusher and receivers from last year). they went 9-4 last year and all 4 of those losses were on the road, so they get their tougher games (ie, USC) at home.
Boise State – because one of these teams does it every year, and I doubt they lose a game (the toughest is Oregon at home in the opener)
by Home Sweet Home on Aug 17, 2009 6:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Heh, polls are pretty much the fastest way to get me to post.
Here’s what I’m thinking:
Top 4:
Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, probably in that order. Florida is pretty clearly a step up, but Texas/Oklahoma are close and USC is in competition with Oklahoma but not with Texas, if that makes sense.
Other than that:
- Alabama, Ole Miss, Penn State, Ohio State, Cal, Oklahoma State, Boise State, BYU, LSU. Pick six, in any order, with the following caveats:
- Alabama probably has to be ahead of Ole Miss
- PSU / OSU / Bama should probably be ahead of Cal
- BYU would have to go at 10 (and even that may be a stretch)
- PSU / OSU probably need to go back-to-back, since they’re virtually the same team. I don’t know how you draw a distinction between them.
- LSU’s ranking is entirely dependent on what you think of their QB play. I’m thinking they should be a lot better this season, but I’m probably in the minority on that.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 17, 2009 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty much on the same page as you on the top 10, I think.
A few of my thoughts:
First, I doubt I’ll consider strength of schedule at this point. For one, I prefer preseason polls to be more like power rankings, where you gauge the teams in vacuums. For another, strength of schedule takes all our assumptions about a team’s strength and raises the complexity to the power of all the projected strengths of the teams they play. It feels like overkill to me at this point. That said:
I’m leaning a little more on USC than most. Yes, they have a lot of turnover and the whole QB conundrum. However, it’s hard to put in words just how ridiculously deep their recruiting has been over the last four years. I think they’ll turn out better than most talking heads imagine.
Texas/OU are virtual ties to me. I’m leaning a little toward Texas simply because I don’t think they lost as many starters. Correct me if I’m wrong. But I don’t factor in any ‘revenge’ motive at all.
Ditto for PSU/OSU, and probably in PSU’s favor. I dunno why, but it feels a little better – this year. Next year, I think PSU’s toast.
LSU: I think I’m a lot higher on LSU than most. Their defense was basically as big of a liability as their quarterback play last year, and that has been fixed (yes, including all Mustang Package and Third and Chavis jokes). The QB play is going to be better as well. I really do think people are sleeping on them.
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
People not including the guys who have them at #9 in the Coaches' Poll?
Really, my thought on LSU / Ole MIss is that they’re also very similar teams, but that’s more of a stretch than the PSU/OSU comparison. I lean toward Texas in the Texas/OU split (at the end of the day it’s the O-line differences that make the distinction for me), and I can kind of see what you’re saying – USC is a very, very rich man’s Tennessee (at least what we want to be) – but at the end of the day, a likely true freshman QB goes below the Trinity. I think they’re a bit better than Alabama, who I’d probably put at 5 without too much concern.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 17, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
I’m talking myself down from placing LSU at 5ish.
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
Even I can’t place LSU at 5; while that stuff may be fixed, it’s not yet. Placing them at 5 means you’re saying they’re better than Alabama, which seems like a bit of a leap of faith.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 18, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why I'm talking myself down from there.
I’ll probably settle on 7 or 8, but I really want to put them ahead of both OSU and PSU. Last year, we saw their worst, when they didn’t have a QB and the defense didn’t have any sort of coaching leadership. Both problems are gone, and for all we tease Chavis about third downs and prevent defenses, he’s an outstanding fit down there. More important than schemes, he’s fiery and disciplined enough to get the best out of the werewolf.
by Hooper on Aug 18, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not totally sure they're better than PSU / OSU, either.
While they may be, they have more questions than both teams – fixing your QB and your defense are still pretty big tasks, even if you think LSU did both of them. We’ve seen that the B10 guys at least have something on that realm, and if you’re counting QB play potential you can’t count it for Jefferson / Sheperd and not count it for Pryor.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 18, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why I wanted some discussion. I know that some of my logic doesn’t make a lot of sense and I need the reality checks.
by Hooper on Aug 18, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I'm here for.
Although you put me in the unenviable position of having to defend the Big 10.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 18, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defending the indefensible?
Flame directed toward the big10 rather than your previous comments, so no offense intended.
I know hooper’s not taking schedules into account, but the big10 ratings are going to be inflated by weak schedules as they roll into bowl season.
Here’s why schedules matter: Penn State plays Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Iowa, Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan State. If you argue creatively you get maybe 3 challenging games. (Confession: I didn’t even know there was a school called Eastern Illinois).
Ohio State plays Navy, USC, Toledo, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, New Mexico State, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan. Same deal there.
By contrast, LSU plays three teams in the top 10. And, you can argue reasonably that 2 more games fall into the tough category…
by memphispete on Aug 18, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The computer RTT's using will take care of the schedule stuff once the season starts.
I agree with you – although I wonder at what point do we hit a circular argument re: “nobody in the Big 10 plays anyone because they all play each other” and we misrated the conference, but that’s neither here nor there – but that’ll shake out.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 18, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinda like the story of the boy crying wolf.
If they bring it upon themselves, it’s a little harder to feel sympathetic.
by Hooper on Aug 18, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I kind of think they're in adolescent stage at this point.
This isn’t the season, but these things run in cycles.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 18, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they ever do regain their conference strength,
it’ll be a lot of fun watching them turn into the very things they hate so much about SEC fans. For example, imagine the “Big 10” chants at bowl games…
by Hooper on Aug 18, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they'd do that.
I just think they’d be happy to see sunshine and no snow in January.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 18, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's mine straight from Alabama
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Penn State
7. LSU
8. Virginia Tech
9. Cal
10. Oklahoma State
36-0
by Bamabrave4 on Aug 17, 2009 9:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It surprises me
that even Bama fans put USC ahead of them. If you call it a push on the new QB situation, I’m really not convinced that USC is better anywhere else, except maybe offensive line. They have an easier schedule and a clearer path to the BCS title game, but if in preseason we’re just ranking on most talented, I think Alabama has a strong argument to be as high as #4.
Will - Rocky Top Talk
by Will on Aug 17, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My take on Alabama.
For lack of a better term, I think their ‘weakness’ is that their offense isn’t inherently capable of scoring bucketloads of points at a stretch. The times that Saban has done that in the past has been more a result of the opposing defense losing their mental composure than anything about the offense itself. I don’t mean to say there’s anything wrong with a ball-control offense, but when you get that occasional Utah-ing in the first quarter, it can take a ball-control offense a loooong time to repair the damage.
USC is different; even if Barkley starts, I can believe their quick-strike ability. They also have a deep bench of running backs and can play the control game just as well as Alabama.
I like to think of a quick strike offense as an insurance policy. It’s nice to have it there if you happen to need it – kind of a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ thing. USC has that. Alabama doesn’t. (Even accounting for Julio.)
So yes, I agree that Alabama can go as high as 4, but it’s easier for me to place USC higher in the preseason.
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't buy into the Terrel Pryor hype
And they lost a BUNCH of talent from last year’s team. They will probably end up in the top ten because they will probably win ten games, but I’m ranking the ten BEST.
36-0
by Bamabrave4 on Aug 18, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
Just had to check. And for the record, I’m skeptical as well.
by Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All this love for Cal...
and no love for Oregon?
I think your tiers are:
- Florida
- Texas & Oklahoma
- Alabama & USC
- LSU, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech
- …take your pick from about 6-8 teams who could be argued for the final spot
Will - Rocky Top Talk
by Will on Aug 17, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm good with Oregon, too.
I don’t think they’ll make top 10. I also think that Cal will fall off the map next year. But this year, it’s easier to see Cal as a top-10 team than Oregon. When I work down into the later levels, I’ll hit up Oregon.
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From Mandel's SI article in the Talking Points today
‘09 prospects: Many expect Oregon to replicate last year’s top 10 season, but that may be a slightly optimistic prediction for a team replacing a 14-year head coach (Mike Bellotti, now the athletic director) and facing both Boise State and Utah (who went a combined 25-1 last season) within the first three weeks. The good news: USC, Cal and Oregon State all come to Eugene, giving the Ducks the most favorable in-conference schedule in the Pac-10.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/08/10/coaches-primer/index.html#ixzz0OXGoidNM
by memphispete on Aug 18, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, if I account for schedule, Oregon is up against it. I prefer not to do that at this point just to simplify things a bit. So it’s really likely that Oregon won’t fare as well as early estimations of their ability might suggest.
by Hooper on Aug 18, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm uneasy about VaTech.
I really don’t feel as confident in them as everybody else, but I can’t put it in words. If you can give me some assurance, I’d love to hear it.
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While VT is usually better in the years they're not supposed to be...
7 starters back from a Top 10 nat’l scoring/total defense from last year will give them a chance to win every single game they play. Tyrod Taylor isn’t a cure-all, and don’t buy anyone who tells you he is, because that’s why Sean Glennon played for the last two years. But they’ll reload even without Darren Evans in the backfield, Greg Boone is one of the five best tight ends in the country and will make plays…they’re just so consistent at doing what they do and putting themselves in position to win, I’d feel better about them at 9 or 10 than just about anyone else, especially teams like Oklahoma State that may look better on paper but haven’t proved they can handle success consistently, while VT has won the ACC two straight and three of the last five years.
Then again, I live there, so perhaps the culture is rubbing off on me and I’m seeing what they want me to see…
Will - Rocky Top Talk
by Will on Aug 17, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've found your take to be consistently lucid.
No worries about Virginia creep in your brain. ;-)
That gives me more to ponder. Thanks.
by Hooper on Aug 17, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, Will
plus the VT conference is a little weaker. VT does play Bala-ama (L) and Nebraska, Miami, BC, and Ga Tech in their more challenging games. But they avoid Florida State and their list is easier than OK State.
OK State has to handle themselves against the likes of Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Georgia, etc.
I think OK State comes out of that with two or more losses, and it’s hard to remain in the Top 10 when you are the third-best team in a conference (other than the SEC).
by memphispete on Aug 18, 2009 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All those new guys on defense scare me, plus I think they're turning over a lot of their o-line.
Also, new HC. Too many questions for me right now, although I think they’ll be okay.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Graysnail on Aug 18, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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