College BlogPoll: Building the Preseason Ballot
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 2:00 PM EDT
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Having taken comments from Monday's discussion on board, here is the current list of my top 20 teams. We really only went over the top 10 last time, but this gives me an opportunity to open up the discussion into the next tier of teams.
- Florida
- USC
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Ole Miss
- Cal
- Virginia Tech
- Oklahoma State
- Oregon
- Georgia Tech
- Georgia
- TCU
- BYU
- Boise State
- North Carolina
- Florida State
Some thoughts:
- I know I'm on an island with the USC-at-#2 pick. I may still move that if you think I'm really out to lunch on it.
- As promised, LSU is not bumped beyond OSU and PSU. I'm still not impressed with those two teams, though.
- Virginia Tech: Hmm.
- I like Georgia Tech more than Georgia. That team is totally sold on Johnson's scheme, and the job he did coaching them last year was absolutely terrific. I think that was one of the more underrated coaching performances of the year, including the LSU game.
- Mid-majors: Help? I like TCU better than BYU because good defenses tend to be more stable and reliable than good offenses. Boise State always gives me fits, preseason.
- North Carolina. I feel like they should be higher than this, if for no other reason than the talent of Davis's recruiting classes.
Everything is up for revision until I submit the ballot, but I'd like to finalize the top 10 this go-round, and have the next 10 pretty well in place (with room for minor tweaks).
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You've definitely got the more difficult task...
We as a community are much more opinionated on the football blogpoll than the basketball one, which makes sense…
Things I wholeheartedly agree with: Georgia Tech over Georgia, Alabama as the highest ranked SEC West team, and the inclusion of all three mid-majors.
Question: why Penn State over Ohio State?
Will - Rocky Top Talk
Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but I think they’re a little more senior-laden and what not. Next year, I think PSU is doomed, but it feels like a year where they have enough people around that they can augment as needed with underclassmen and be very consistent.
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
It's also kind of a referendum on the Terrelle Pryor bandwagon.
FWIW, I’m with you on that order.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Aug 19, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
As an ACC homer...
…I think if you’re going to rank UNC in the Top 20 based on Davis’ recruiting classes, then Miami and Randy Shannon should be in the Top 20 as well. Both came into the league in 2007.
ACC Records
Shannon: 12-13, 6-10
Davis: 12-13, 7-9
Rivals Class Rankings
Shannon: 19 (2007), 5 (2008), 15 (2009)
Davis: 17 (2007), 32 (2008), 9 (2009)
2009 Returning Starters (from TheACC.com, includes K/P)
Miami: 18
North Carolina: 16
A bullhorn, a bottle of whiskey and a dream. GobblerCountry.com
The difference is that Butch Davis has a proven track record of being able to develop players. So far, it’s hard to say that any of Shannon’s players have become better than what natural talent alone would get them. Miami also changed offensive coordinator, which while it’s good that it’s not Nix and his four page playbook anymore, it still means there will be some transition difficulties.
There’s plenty of room for having UNC well above Miami.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
i realize the difference in track record.
but i dont think you can say davis’ players will turn unc into a top 15 team this year just because davis won at miami in the late 90s.
A bullhorn, a bottle of whiskey and a dream. GobblerCountry.com
by furrer4heisman on Aug 19, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
fwiw,
Miami will show up in the next batch of names. They’re a bit of an enigma to me as well, but mostly due to my lack of time to research them, so thanks for the info.
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
And in turn, you can’t say Miami will be a top 20 team simply off of recruiting classes. Recruiting rankings weren’t the problem any of the past several years.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
New line of thought: Yates is a better QB than Jacory Harris.
While Miami’s defense should finally shed the neophyte label at some point this season – and they’ll be scary again when they do – I’m not quite ready to buy in yet. In the absence of playmakers and a passing game, North Carolina should get the nod over Miami.
But yes, on recruiting rankings alone I don’t entirely get it either.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Aug 19, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Alabama
The Tide at #5 is silly, and not just here, but by any pollster. Inexperienced QB, rebuilt OL, schedule….
I wouldn’t have them in the top 12.
Forgot about the O-line.
I don’t consider schedules in the preseason (not that preseason polls matter enough to worry either way), but I’ll think over the O-line.
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point on the O-line.
I hadn’t considered them enough. I can’t see dropping them that low, but I’ll think that over.
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
ill say this...
The oline will take some time to gel but they wont be our problem. We have some VERY highly touted guys filling some admittedly big shoes. But…
Andre Smith will be replaced by JUCO transfer James Carpenter. He was a very highly recruited player coming out of junior college. He might not be Andre (and there aren’t many like him) buts hes 6’5’’ 305. And it didn’t take long for him to lock up the LT position. He’s backed up by monster DJ Fluker…a 5 star recruit.
We return seniors Mike Johnson at LG and Drew Davis at RT.
Antoine Caldwell will probably be replaced by 6 foot 305 pound junior William Vlachos. William has played behind Caldwell now for three years and got a lot of PT during that span. So again, this isn’t some RS freshman..
Marlon Davis RG, was a senior and a great player but we have at least 4 studs in Barrett Jones, John Boswell, Alfred McCullough and David Ross who are all fighting for that position. Right now, Jones seems to be the leader but things could change…
What im saying is that even though we replace 3 guys on the O-line, these guys are chumps. Once we get passed Va Tech (which i think we get out of there with a W), the oline will have a couple of games to get things in order before the SEC schedule starts. ..the nice thing about all the competition is that if we do have an injury, we have plenty of guys that can and will come in and produce…so no..we aren’t having problems on the o-line.
So the only real question mark is our QB. Again, he’s a Junior who is actually a better overall QB than JPW. The only thing that is worrisome is his decision making..its not because he has made mistakes but its that he’s a new starter. But he’s been in the system now 2 years (his first year we had a different OC) and by all accounts he has taken over the offense..He has probably one of the top defenses in the country, a pretty good player in Julio Jones to throw to, a 4 deep RB core and some pretty nice TE’s, including senior Colin Peek.
So again, the offense won’t be the problem…hope this helped you in your decision process :)
Scoring against Alabama will be like birthing a child: rare, painful, and messy. - The Ghost of Jay Cutler
Jonathan Crompton says:
Beware the untested new guy who’s supposed to actually be a better quarterback than the underappreciated guy who took you to the SEC Championship Game…
Will - Rocky Top Talk
by Will Shelton on Aug 19, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Aw, man,
now you just gave me reason to move Bama higher – as a justification for more hope in Crompton.
Oh, wait. I can move them higher next year….
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Once you get below 4 (okay, once you get below 1), everyone has question marks.
I can almost see the argument for putting a Penn State or Ohio State ahead of them, but Alabama’s defense counts for a lot. It’s likely the best overall unit that’s not included within the top 4 and by a decent margin (I’d put them in the top 3 overall right now). That makes up for a lot.
Alabama’s QB position doesn’t matter a ton with how they’ll playcall; expect a heavily-focused ground game with RBs that go three deep if you’re lucky – and four or five if you’re not. Seriously, even last year with a senior QB they still ran well over 60% of the time; I don’t expect that ratio to change. It also doesn’t hurt matters that Julio Jones is kind of good.
Dropping them down to 13? I completely don’t see it. Heck, right now I can’t see them below 7, and I don’t have much issue with them at 5.
For the record, I abhor that BlogPoll has forced me to defend a) the Big 10 and b) Alabama. This is getting out of control.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Aug 19, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
What?
Like you expected me to put myself in a position of defending them? Far better for me to bang on them and let somebody else come to their aid. :-D
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Gee, thanks.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Aug 19, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
General comments
The top 4 are easy, although I think arguments can be made for almost any order behind Florida. After that, everyone has questions. LSU and Bama have unproven QBs, LSU’s D was a sieve last year, and Bama has O-line problems. On paper, Ole Miss may be the strongest in the West, but I have my doubts about them being able to put it together in the face of expectations. Those three could really finish in any order whatsoever. If I had to guess, I’d go Bama, Ole Miss, LSU.
VT always finishes in the top 10 but rarely high in it. 8-11 is a good place for them.
Oregon may have some issues with the mid-majors early on their schedule. We shall see.
I thought TCU was the best mid-major at the end of last year (yes, better than Utah), and I believe it again this year. I like your mid-major ordering.
by Incipient_Senescence on Aug 19, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions
I think TCU doesn't get enough conversation.
They’re the unlucky victims of being yet another Texas team, whereas Utah and BYU are out there in some exotic wilderness. I don’t have anything but gut to go off of, but I’ve always felt that a team based on defense can weather roster turnover better than an offense-first team. That generally makes me defense-heavy at the start of the season, which is why TCU got the nod.
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
They also only return 4 starters on D.
BYU’s at least returning 8. Of course, on offense BYU only gets to return four guys, but they’re the guys you’d want returning (Hall, Unga, Pitta, and LT Reynolds). I have no specific quibble with TCU over BYU – they’re close enough that it’s not worth a holy war – but just be aware.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Aug 19, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Mid-majors...
I think we can all agree that after Florida, USC, Texas and OU it’s pretty much a crapshoot, because all the teams have some questions (that have been addressed throughout the comments)…
As for the mid-majors, I don’t see anybody but those three — Boise State, BYU, TCU — being in the top 20 by year’s end (Utah lost a lot). They all return about the same number of starters: BYU 12, Boise 11, TCU 10.
TCU returns their offensive leaders, but lost most of their defense. BYU lost 4 off the OL, but still have Max Hall and their leading rusher. Boise probably lost the most – Ian Johnson, five of the front seven, 2 OL starters, top two WRs – from last year…
…but I still think because of their schedule — which I know Hoop said he wasn’t taking into account — Boise’s the best of those 4. outside of Oregon at home, what WAC team will beat them? Fresno State? BYU opens up with Oklahoma and they play Florida State too. TCU plays at Virginia and at Clemson.
I definitely agree with where you’ve put them, just throwing in my two cents…
by Home Sweet Home on Aug 19, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions
Boise certainly has the best shot at undefeated this year. After the Oregon game, it’s basically cruise control and hope that Oregon beats USC. BYU has a toughie, though. If anybody out there is cheering for a mid-major coup of the BCS, then BYU is definitely the horse you want to ride.
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Bingo. I'm trying to let that not get in the way of pulling for BYU here.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Aug 19, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll fight you on the USC at #2, since nobody else seems to have taken that yet.
Whether or not they’re talented, it comes down to a matter of questions. USC is – to some degree- a more talented LSU, at least for the purposes of power rankings: how will their QB play turn out and what will their defense do? Both are nearly entirely new, and while they’ll likely be okay, we don’t know yet. We know more about Texas’ QB play and defense, and we know more about Oklahoma’s QB play. Specifically, we know they’ll be really good. We don’t know that about USC yet.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
That's true.
The qb situation has muddled things recently. Barkley’s no Corp. ;-)
by David Hooper on Aug 19, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Corp was going to be better than Bradford and McCoy.
Wait, someone from USC might say that and mean it.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Aug 19, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I may drop VT to 12 behind Okie State, but only because of the Evans injury.
I just think that’s enough to warrant the drop. Plus Tyrod Taylor’s in Dual Threat v2: Wait, I Can Pass? mode, so he’s a year off.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
Well, for what it is worth...
Here’s my preliminary ballot for the Preseason:
2009 CBS Sports Top 25 BlogPoll | Gate 21
I agree it is nearly impossible to accurately assess these teams at this point. We agree on some, disagree on others. Either way, you pays your money, you takes your chances…
============
lawvol: Gate 21 - Life, the Universe, & the Bounce of the Ball
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