BlogPoll Ballot: Week 2 Second Draft

by David Hooper on Sep 14, 2009 6:00 PM EDT

I should perhaps explain my drafting procedures in a little more depth, as I appear to have caused little confusion to those who aren't used to me. There are two forces within me that make me a particularly bad choice to be handling early-season ballots: one is that I am rather violently opposed to the idea and the other is that I am really bad at them. To the first, early balloting tends to bias voters in favor of teams they rank high early on. We've seen in in the traditional polls all the time, that so long as a team wins (however ugly), it's very difficult for them to drop to another winning team that might actually be more impressive. Better is to simply watch the games, wait about five or six weeks, and then handle the balloting with some significant data behind you.

As to the second, having me handle rankings early in the season is about as reliable as having Squeaky, the Wonder Mouse handle them. I don't do well without data. So between the two, it's really best for all if I'm not involved in the early going.

That said, I'm the guy for Rocky Top Talk. As awkward as it all is right now, I'm still determined to submit ballots that RTT can stand by, so to handle both problems, I first put together a very rough draft that includes some of my thoughts and feelings. Then, after everybody points out where I'm inevitably screwed up, I draft again. I'll repeat this right up to the final ballot, if need be. Last week went well, and only the one draft was needed. This week needs more work, so I have taken the first round of comments on board and produced draft number two. I'm sure this'll drive Brian nuts that I'm drafting ballots this late in the game, but the only one that matters in a week is the final, which is due Wednesday morning.

So, the second draft is after the jump. And thanks to everybody who straightened me out. Any more kinks?

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida
2	Alabama	2
3	Southern Cal
4	Texas	2
5	Penn State
6	California
7	Brigham Young	1
8	Boise State	1
9	Oklahoma	1
10	Georgia Tech	1
11	LSU	1
12	Virginia Tech	5
13	Mississippi
14	Ohio State
15	TCU
16	Oklahoma State	9
17	Cincinnati	7
18	Utah	2
19	Kansas	1
20	Houston
21	North Carolina	5
22	Georgia	1
23	Nebraska	2
24	Michigan
25	Auburn
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Oregon State (#19), Tennessee (#22), Notre Dame (#25).

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Comments

Looks good overall

Perhaps Bama at #2 is a little high. USC beating OSU would cause me to bump them to #2 over Bama.

We’ll all know more about Utah after their game with Oregon this week, but I would put both they and Cinci over OkSt after the Cowboys’ debacle this past weekend.

I would also put GaTech behind LSU. LSU had to travel across the country to smack down Wash where GaTech barely crept by Clemson.

VaTech may be a bit high currently, but I can understand the difficulty in accurately assessing the rankings after only two weeks. That said, extreme variance from week to week is defendable until after week four when the probability distribution can be more accurately estimated.

I am a statistics nerd, so I really appreciate your solicitation of input from the readers here on your site. I had become sick of the tenor of the comments on GVX, and am happy my buddy Guilded turned me on to RTT.

Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle... for this is the WINNING EDGE.

by pound the rock on Sep 14, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions

Stats nerds, unite!

(within a reasonable expectation, of course…)

This is our moment! (As is the second, third, and fourth…)

by David Hooper on Sep 14, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point on GaTech.

I can do that. I’m ok with VaTech at the moment because they did decently well against Alabama, then chomped Marshall in convincing fashion.

OkState is also a mystery to me, so I may follow your suggestion on that as well. I’m as rigid as paper this early in the game.

And as far as GVX goes: we have advantages in the community-building end that they cannot possibly match. It all goes back to their need to sell subscriptions. We depend on them for beat reporters so we don’t make a habit of bashing them, but we can provide a healthier environment for community and debate. But thanks for the compliment; it’s sincerely appreciated.

by David Hooper on Sep 14, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I also find Tech a little high.

Dropping them behind LSU is probably fine for this week. If they get a road win in Miami, they’ll justify their rankings. If they lose (which would not surprise me after that Clemson mess, even given last year), they drop. We shall see.

by Incipient_Senescence on Sep 14, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Not bashing GVX

Just some of the posters in the comments section. Got a little stale for my taste.

Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle... for this is the WINNING EDGE.

by pound the rock on Sep 15, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly.

I give props to GVX mostly because they deserve some due and I like to balance out my own criticisms of their community with some kind words for them. I meant it purely self-reflectively.

But yeah, other than the Witch Doctor, I find that community hard to take for more than brief stretches.

by David Hooper on Sep 15, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

GVX needs to drop the comments section.

It serves no worthwhile purpose.

by danmarcel on Sep 15, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Another point of view on USC's win over Ohio State

You could argue the point that even though they won the game, they had to rally to beat a team that came this close to being upset by Navy. I’m not sold on USC.

(to hooper- rank the teams however you like, just thought I’d throw that in.)

by yellowhammer on Sep 14, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions

sorry man

but Houston needs to be ahead of Oklahoma State. 2 games into the season and they beat them at their place.

Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?

by bucknellbruin on Sep 14, 2009 9:28 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t think Houston is better than Okie State. They are a good team who caught OSU in a letdown situation. It happens. They were better on that weekend. They are good. But I don’t think they need to be ranked higher.

by Incipient_Senescence on Sep 14, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I went ahead and moved OkState below Cincinnati.

After two weeks, Cincinnati’s been impressive. It’s kind of a paper tiger move, but that brings OkSU and Houston closer.

by David Hooper on Sep 15, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Is there a page somewhere that displays Blogpoll deadlines?

ex:
1st draft is due
2nd draft is due
Poll is published

"Florida didnt win their first SEC title until 1991 and now they think they invented football."
-Ron Zook

by rustytanton on Sep 15, 2009 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

Couldn't find a listing per se on MGB, but

I do know that he has a draft of the poll due Monday on CBSSports, so the first draft is due before either 10 AM or noon Monday. (I’m always done before going to bed Sunday because I won’t remember Monday morning. Coffee is the priority then.)

The final is due Wednesday at 10 AM, and he publishes the final at noon on CBSSports, IIRC. Again, mine’s in Tuesday night at the absolute latest.

by David Hooper on Sep 15, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions