College BlogPoll Week 4: Raw Computer Numbers

The numbers are up!  I'm going to change my approach this week, and I think this will work better for the rest of the season.  Here's the plan (for all weeks that my schedule permits):

  1. Post the computer numbers Sunday afternoon/evening.  These will act as the first rough draft of the RTT BlogPoll ballot.  (The draft is due in on Monday mornings.)
  2. Time permitting, write a post about the poll results sometime Monday or Tuesday.  This isn't so much a ranking post as it is a discussion about the performances of some teams and conferences.  It won't have any bearing on the final ballot.
  3. Take on board the conversations about the ballot and submit the final ballot Tuesday evening (final ballots are due Wednesday morning).

After the jump, you'll see the raw table in its entirety.  It's long (120 Div. 1A teams), but don't let that be a concern.  I'll put a few observations about some of the more unusual results below the table.  The top 25 are the first draft ballot for the BlogPoll, but that does not make them sacrosanct.  Feel free to shred from there.

Rank Team Delta
1 Florida
2 Alabama
3 Texas 11
4 Iowa 8
5 Boise State 8
6 Penn State 1
7 Cincinnati 4
8 Oklahoma 7
9 Kansas 1
10 LSU 2
11 North Carolina State
12 South Florida
13 Virginia Tech
14 Nebraska
15 UCLA 4
16 Southern Cal 8
17 Auburn 6
18 Arizona
19 TCU
20 Ohio State
21 Connecticut
22 Georgia Tech
23 Brigham Young
24 Texas A&M
25 West Virginia 5
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Miami (Florida) (#4), California (#6), Arizona State (#7), North Carolina (#9), Kentucky (#16), Southern Miss (#17), Houston (#18), Missouri (#21), Washington (#22), Clemson (#23), Mississippi (#25).
Rank Team WL SOS PED RD 3DO TD PEO OPPG TO 3DD W SUM
1 Florida 1.517 -0.306 1.973 0.919 2.109 1.929 1.900 1.969 2.159 1.128 136.161
2 Alabama 1.517 -0.354 1.106 1.863 0.532 2.078 1.683 1.264 1.633 1.351 117.837
3 Texas 1.517 -0.349 1.024 1.863 0.846 1.252 0.821 0.988 2.085 2.000 107.670
4 Iowa 1.517 1.636 1.579 0.090 0.365 0.604 -0.714 1.448 -0.465 0.095 96.059
5 Boise St. 1.517 -0.387 1.622 0.344 0.117 0.901 1.585 1.142 1.078 0.553 87.020
6 Penn St. 0.637 0.464 1.024 1.277 1.558 1.625 0.123 1.601 -0.068 0.982 85.850
7 Cincinnati 1.517 -0.438 0.900 0.261 1.245 0.463 1.986 1.142 1.431 -0.159 85.499
8 Oklahoma 0.344 -0.056 1.077 1.999 0.187 1.776 1.218 2.285 1.077 0.822 81.460
9 Kansas 1.517 -0.960 -0.054 1.614 1.294 0.510 0.999 1.203 1.942 1.135 79.039
10 LSU 1.517 0.672 1.323 0.048 0.487 0.181 0.595 0.988 -1.020 -0.586 74.716
11 North Carolina St. 0.637 -0.571 0.505 1.267 1.113 2.096 1.479 1.050 0.391 2.130 74.350
12 South Fla. 1.517 -2.066 1.227 0.515 0.998 1.495 1.693 2.031 0.799 2.234 73.643
13 Virginia Tech 0.637 2.597 1.570 -0.579 -0.563 0.297 -0.445 0.835 -0.403 1.017 71.245
14 Nebraska 0.637 0.092 1.037 0.442 0.794 0.876 0.969 2.000 0.891 0.208 68.203
15 UCLA 1.517 -0.550 1.683 1.301 -0.785 1.375 -0.687 1.305 -1.148 1.307 67.652
16 Southern California 0.637 0.212 1.135 1.609 -1.599 1.723 0.413 1.632 0.656 1.017 67.609
17 Auburn 1.517 -0.895 0.886 -0.351 1.113 0.264 1.668 -0.115 2.159 -0.718 66.098
18 Arizona 0.637 1.025 0.545 0.883 0.069 0.836 -0.126 0.345 0.479 -0.560 61.779
19 TCU 1.517 -1.985 0.815 1.433 -0.163 1.462 1.289 1.019 0.675 0.760 61.433
20 Ohio St. 0.637 0.119 1.288 0.774 0.309 1.263 -0.033 1.479 -0.182 -0.419 60.508
21 Connecticut 0.637 0.061 0.354 1.433 0.266 1.647 -0.514 1.019 -0.241 1.513 57.521
22 Georgia Tech 0.637 1.528 -0.446 0.644 0.653 0.358 0.215 0.284 0.115 -0.080 57.463
23 BYU 0.637 0.633 -0.184 0.074 2.017 0.025 1.165 0.008 0.788 -1.007 54.004
24 Texas A&M 1.517 -2.338 0.781 -0.178 2.057 -0.082 1.549 0.611 2.866 1.379 53.771
25 West Virginia 0.344 -0.124 0.134 1.108 1.927 0.492 0.767 -0.452 1.557 -0.027 51.658
26 South Carolina 0.637 0.555 0.422 0.764 -0.571 1.404 -0.415 0.713 -0.124 0.245 49.899
27 Miami (FL) 0.344 2.642 -0.628 -0.455 -0.206 0.174 0.956 -0.492 0.004 -0.278 48.055
28 North Carolina 0.637 0.593 1.108 0.385 -1.121 1.383 -0.101 1.111 -1.057 0.743 47.893
29 Houston 1.517 -0.516 0.206 -0.711 0.842 -0.690 1.155 -0.002 2.405 -1.425 47.390
30 Michigan 1.517 0.179 0.186 -0.102 0.365 -0.576 -0.057 0.069 0.630 0.222 47.207
31 Oregon 0.637 1.589 0.990 0.095 -1.121 0.246 -0.450 0.345 -0.638 0.429 45.528
32 Arizona St. 0.344 -0.331 1.487 1.301 -0.437 1.954 -1.109 1.346 -0.981 0.987 43.747
33 Air Force 0.637 -1.625 0.679 0.639 1.113 1.060 1.352 1.418 0.402 1.936 41.067
34 Georgia 0.637 1.093 -0.142 0.504 0.117 -0.141 0.943 -0.789 -0.326 0.626 40.734
35 Tennessee -0.242 0.622 0.798 1.039 0.156 1.636 -0.587 0.651 -0.160 0.413 39.619
36 Utah 0.637 -0.374 1.196 0.043 -0.315 0.742 -0.053 0.529 0.784 2.225 38.774
37 Clemson -0.242 2.070 1.343 -0.185 -0.591 0.814 -1.241 0.866 -0.767 0.834 37.506
38 Stanford 0.637 -0.213 -0.001 0.375 0.878 0.213 0.492 0.774 0.589 0.054 36.128
39 Wisconsin 1.517 -1.233 -0.424 -0.180 1.645 -0.373 1.359 -0.054 0.714 -0.560 35.908
40 Oklahoma St. 0.637 -0.457 0.485 0.390 0.661 -0.080 1.270 0.253 0.593 0.715 35.438
41 Southern Miss. 0.637 -1.000 0.030 1.510 0.309 0.709 0.652 0.161 0.869 0.281 35.136
42 Missouri 1.517 -2.043 0.382 0.069 0.552 -0.083 1.559 0.958 1.082 -0.525 33.927
43 California 0.637 0.267 -0.739 0.634 0.397 0.145 0.189 0.314 0.571 0.281 31.372
44 Idaho 0.637 -0.291 -0.844 0.727 1.716 0.228 0.784 -0.176 0.387 -2.308 30.807
45 Washington -0.242 2.525 -0.365 -1.217 1.988 -0.482 -0.038 -0.237 -0.304 0.008 28.977
46 Boston College 0.637 -0.462 0.708 0.587 -0.896 1.176 -0.104 1.142 -1.013 1.182 27.943
47 Baylor 0.344 -0.307 1.105 -0.573 0.435 0.671 0.802 0.243 0.298 -0.940 27.740
48 Central Mich. 0.637 -0.870 -0.050 0.499 0.712 1.042 0.073 0.805 -0.278 1.073 27.615
49 Indiana 0.637 0.039 -0.536 0.888 -0.049 0.271 -0.241 0.130 0.277 0.003 24.714
50 Notre Dame 0.637 -0.162 -0.465 0.136 0.487 -0.634 1.517 0.130 1.111 -0.089 23.769
51 Mississippi 0.344 -0.994 1.214 0.762 -0.996 0.806 -0.014 1.387 -0.202 1.915 19.106
52 Texas Tech -0.242 0.081 0.170 0.707 0.462 0.003 0.784 0.222 1.416 -0.883 18.645
53 Mississippi St. -0.242 1.074 0.791 0.173 -0.576 0.655 -1.057 0.130 -0.351 1.009 17.549
54 Kansas St. -0.242 -0.541 1.103 0.945 -0.695 1.516 -0.602 0.897 -0.065 0.651 15.500
55 Florida St. -0.242 1.824 -1.215 0.520 0.532 -0.887 0.339 0.038 0.325 0.487 15.120
56 Minnesota 0.637 0.612 -0.385 -0.154 -0.092 -0.170 -0.385 0.038 -0.767 -0.905 13.094
57 Tulsa 0.637 -1.551 -0.310 0.624 0.226 0.286 1.287 0.682 0.619 0.487 12.911
58 Wake Forest -0.242 0.504 -0.509 -0.009 0.838 -0.123 0.981 0.559 0.483 -0.294 11.582
59 Hawaii 0.344 -1.368 0.099 0.216 0.552 -0.459 2.197 -0.166 1.998 -0.728 11.060
60 Iowa St. 0.637 0.097 -0.037 -0.445 -0.293 -0.174 -0.971 0.529 0.027 0.785 8.360
61 Colorado St. 0.637 -0.722 0.139 0.831 -1.121 0.087 0.665 -0.268 -0.105 -1.568 7.329
62 Oregon St. -0.242 0.343 -0.560 0.930 0.552 -0.264 0.078 0.008 0.178 -0.723 3.752
63 Pittsburgh 0.637 -0.698 -0.721 0.510 -0.613 -0.083 1.287 0.345 -0.285 -0.746 3.670
64 Vanderbilt -0.242 -0.556 1.770 -0.470 -0.437 1.158 -1.720 1.172 -0.171 1.856 2.514
65 Fresno St. -1.121 1.796 -0.647 -0.201 1.113 -0.351 -0.107 -0.605 1.512 0.581 1.760
66 Navy -0.242 -0.400 -0.796 0.520 1.803 0.184 0.614 -0.023 -0.337 0.229 1.093
67 Rutgers 0.637 -0.963 -0.402 1.023 -0.504 -0.011 -0.521 0.345 -0.418 0.822 -0.478
68 Northwestern -0.242 -1.025 -0.266 0.105 1.791 0.130 1.014 -0.513 0.549 0.319 -2.875
69 UNLV -0.242 -0.469 -0.935 0.510 2.034 -0.319 0.411 0.130 0.384 -0.755 -3.136
70 Kentucky 0.344 -0.351 0.540 -1.008 0.510 -0.111 -0.664 0.079 -0.614 0.212 -3.789
71 Michigan St. -1.121 1.134 -1.026 0.489 0.641 -0.243 1.056 -0.299 0.869 -0.931 -7.374
72 Marshall 0.637 -0.137 0.087 -0.673 -0.383 -0.999 -0.514 -0.391 -0.605 -1.158 -12.862
73 Middle Tenn. 0.637 -1.049 0.150 -0.320 -0.797 -0.406 -0.420 -0.299 0.409 0.281 -12.864
74 La.-Monroe -0.242 -0.316 -0.184 0.442 0.108 -0.384 0.341 -0.881 -0.006 -0.541 -15.330
75 La.-Lafayette -0.242 0.897 -0.866 -0.310 0.338 -0.492 -0.740 -0.820 -0.748 -1.244 -18.830
76 Western Mich. -0.242 -0.239 -0.309 -0.413 0.653 -0.641 0.167 0.100 -0.322 -0.248 -20.779
77 Bowling Green -1.121 2.017 -0.279 -0.968 0.120 -0.536 -0.567 -0.421 -0.491 0.641 -20.977
78 Northern Ill. -0.242 0.036 -0.804 -0.232 -0.139 -0.322 0.448 0.100 -0.304 -1.447 -21.841
79 Duke -0.242 -0.265 0.121 -0.336 -1.212 0.166 -0.080 -0.237 -0.116 0.193 -22.663
80 SMU 0.344 -1.994 0.918 0.575 -0.538 -0.705 -0.537 -0.657 0.773 0.039 -22.732
81 Ohio -0.242 -0.884 1.161 -1.253 -0.306 0.170 -0.375 -0.115 -0.987 0.957 -29.002
82 Purdue -1.121 1.127 0.238 -0.839 0.066 -1.093 -0.129 -0.850 0.612 -0.715 -30.701
83 UCF -0.242 -1.194 -0.511 0.810 0.447 0.116 -0.508 0.222 -1.542 -0.688 -31.891
84 San Diego St. -1.121 0.314 0.494 -0.517 -0.013 0.264 -0.535 -0.575 -0.682 -0.883 -33.122
85 Louisville -0.828 -0.639 0.070 0.070 -0.514 0.844 -0.867 -0.044 -0.393 -0.644 -35.592
86 Syracuse -0.242 0.091 -1.229 1.121 -2.142 -0.688 0.504 -0.483 -0.752 -0.379 -36.024
87 East Carolina -0.242 -0.252 -1.285 0.276 0.435 -0.507 -1.126 -0.329 -1.142 -0.620 -38.813
88 Army -0.242 -1.318 -0.067 0.603 -0.876 0.630 -1.836 -0.115 -0.895 0.068 -40.181
89 Buffalo -1.121 -0.539 0.251 -0.802 0.423 0.188 0.574 -1.157 -0.182 -0.620 -42.681
90 Arkansas St. -0.828 -0.201 -0.976 0.769 -1.391 -0.155 0.293 0.079 -0.310 -0.101 -42.708
91 Wyoming -0.242 0.109 0.218 -0.045 -1.559 -1.025 -1.449 -0.636 -0.822 -0.586 -42.970
92 Troy -0.242 -0.105 -1.075 -0.201 -0.945 -0.934 0.030 -1.065 -0.061 -0.723 -44.240
93 Illinois -0.828 0.330 -0.935 0.098 -0.078 -0.579 -1.398 -0.575 -0.467 -1.158 -47.632
94 Toledo -0.242 -0.663 0.246 -1.331 -0.007 -1.796 0.105 -2.015 1.380 -1.666 -48.538
95 Temple -0.828 -0.617 -0.299 0.430 -0.600 -0.280 -0.548 -0.044 -0.677 -0.516 -48.827
96 Arkansas -0.828 0.876 -2.710 0.278 -2.028 -0.589 0.808 -1.105 0.940 0.085 -50.343
97 New Mexico St. -0.242 -1.772 0.362 -0.387 0.195 0.213 -1.770 -0.023 -1.369 -1.331 -52.346
98 North Texas -1.121 0.062 0.222 -0.678 -1.018 -0.492 -0.745 -1.157 -0.175 0.291 -57.214
99 Colorado -0.828 0.384 -0.918 -0.953 -0.302 -0.927 -1.116 -0.289 -0.540 0.923 -57.311
100 Kent St. -0.242 -0.826 0.483 -0.543 -2.643 -0.384 -0.950 0.192 -1.627 -0.027 -60.356
101 Louisiana Tech -0.828 -0.210 -0.156 -2.377 0.542 -0.893 -0.165 -0.492 -0.824 -0.735 -64.280
102 Memphis -1.121 0.178 -0.514 -0.880 -1.018 -0.630 -0.743 -0.728 -0.748 0.633 -67.561
103 Akron -1.121 0.345 -0.726 -0.699 -0.840 -0.492 -0.387 -0.728 -1.575 -1.905 -67.812
104 Utah St. -0.828 -0.254 -0.404 -1.229 -1.870 -2.032 0.275 -1.515 1.611 0.393 -75.124
105 Virginia -2.000 0.390 0.565 -0.904 -0.769 0.024 -1.236 -0.942 -1.486 1.307 -75.667
106 Maryland -1.121 0.115 -0.936 -1.347 -0.462 -0.956 -0.370 -1.831 -0.362 0.416 -76.163
107 Eastern Mich. -2.000 0.839 1.789 -3.137 -0.527 -0.295 -1.301 -1.187 -1.520 -0.596 -81.039
108 Miami (OH) -2.000 0.993 -1.444 -0.771 0.178 -0.597 -1.431 -2.260 -0.598 -1.456 -87.933
109 UTEP -1.121 0.880 -0.539 -1.803 -0.555 -1.535 -1.934 -1.218 -2.009 -0.931 -88.237
110 Fla. Atlantic -2.000 1.394 -1.314 -2.017 0.435 -1.603 -0.829 -1.800 0.170 0.113 -89.351
111 Washington St. -1.121 1.078 -1.547 -0.585 -1.418 -2.281 -1.460 -1.157 -0.958 0.039 -89.439
112 Nevada -2.000 1.975 -3.386 -0.165 -0.139 -1.607 -1.094 -1.270 -0.231 -1.069 -91.737
113 UAB -1.121 -0.492 -1.228 -0.341 -0.327 -1.951 -1.104 -1.494 0.126 -1.348 -92.847
114 Tulane -0.828 -0.320 -1.845 -1.713 -0.591 -1.805 0.467 -2.168 -0.908 -1.931 -100.729
115 FIU -2.000 1.533 -0.874 -1.706 -0.327 -2.114 -1.215 -1.392 -1.432 0.386 -101.123
116 San Jose St. -1.121 0.397 -0.854 -2.254 -2.302 -1.560 -1.028 -1.157 -1.803 -0.481 -110.916
117 New Mexico -2.000 0.700 -1.486 -1.388 -2.264 -1.086 -1.385 -1.494 -1.726 -1.225 -127.229
118 Ball St. -2.000 -0.367 -1.135 -1.653 -0.757 -0.996 -1.927 -0.850 -1.641 -0.163 -130.416
119 Rice -2.000 -0.222 -1.739 -0.719 -0.812 -1.908 -1.672 -2.536 -0.774 -0.582 -136.278
120 Western Ky. -2.000 0.037 -2.651 -3.374 -1.212 -2.223 -1.504 -2.168 -1.579 -3.074 -177.283

 

Observations:

  • Iowa?!?  Even after the Penn State upset, the ascendancy of Iowa to #4 surprised me.  That early struggle they had against Northern Iowa had set me against them as a possibly good team, but they really have been impressive since then.  Their biggest boon is a schedule that ranks toughest in the nation so far, thanks to their opponents generally winning out otherwise, and the opponents of their opponents generally winning out.  Beatpaths are very much in their favor at this point.  But their pass efficiency defense is up with the best of them as well, and only their passing offense is holding their numbers back.  It's a great early resume from a team that nobody was talking about prior to Saturday.
  • Virginia Tech and Miami - too low?  I feel they are, and I wonder if the win/loss component is too heavy at the moment.  With early schedules, the difference between undefeated and one loss against a major team doesn't really carry a lot of meaning.  Perhaps this should be de-emphasized early on.  I pass that to you as a question because it seems counter-intuitive.
  • Auburn?  After starting 4-0 with a prolific offense and wins over West Virginia and Mississippi State, you'd think they would be higher than LSU.  But in a bizarre twist, their strength of schedule is far lower than I anticipated (#102 out of all D-1A teams).  This is because their opponents (and the opponents of their oppoents) aren't winning.  Given the struggles they had with West Virginia and that they likely would have lost if WVU hadn't handed them the game, maybe this is a bit of an early red flag.  But I still think they should be higher at this point.
  • Texas A&M Another team making me think that Win/Loss counts for too much early on.  They have played nobody.  And there's no reason to expect them to be top-25ish.  Over time, they'll undoubtedly crater downward where they belong, but I'm willing to listen to a reason to bump them down right now.
  • TCU Sporting the mid-major curse of the poor strength of schedule, they stand to rise naturally as other metrics take on more weight.  But for now, they feel a little low.
  • Nebraska  Average schedule, no notable weaknesses.

There you go.  Hack away!

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