College BlogPoll Week 4: Raw Computer Numbers
The numbers are up! I'm going to change my approach this week, and I think this will work better for the rest of the season. Here's the plan (for all weeks that my schedule permits):
- Post the computer numbers Sunday afternoon/evening. These will act as the first rough draft of the RTT BlogPoll ballot. (The draft is due in on Monday mornings.)
- Time permitting, write a post about the poll results sometime Monday or Tuesday. This isn't so much a ranking post as it is a discussion about the performances of some teams and conferences. It won't have any bearing on the final ballot.
- Take on board the conversations about the ballot and submit the final ballot Tuesday evening (final ballots are due Wednesday morning).
After the jump, you'll see the raw table in its entirety. It's long (120 Div. 1A teams), but don't let that be a concern. I'll put a few observations about some of the more unusual results below the table. The top 25 are the first draft ballot for the BlogPoll, but that does not make them sacrosanct. Feel free to shred from there.
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Alabama | |
| 3 | Texas | 11 |
| 4 | Iowa | 8 |
| 5 | Boise State | 8 |
| 6 | Penn State | 1 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 4 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 7 |
| 9 | Kansas | 1 |
| 10 | LSU | 2 |
| 11 | North Carolina State | |
| 12 | South Florida | |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | |
| 14 | Nebraska | |
| 15 | UCLA | 4 |
| 16 | Southern Cal | 8 |
| 17 | Auburn | 6 |
| 18 | Arizona | |
| 19 | TCU | |
| 20 | Ohio State | |
| 21 | Connecticut | |
| 22 | Georgia Tech | |
| 23 | Brigham Young | |
| 24 | Texas A&M | |
| 25 | West Virginia | 5 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
| Rank | Team | WL | SOS | PED | RD | 3DO | TD | PEO | OPPG | TO | 3DD | W SUM |
| 1 | Florida | 1.517 | -0.306 | 1.973 | 0.919 | 2.109 | 1.929 | 1.900 | 1.969 | 2.159 | 1.128 | 136.161 |
| 2 | Alabama | 1.517 | -0.354 | 1.106 | 1.863 | 0.532 | 2.078 | 1.683 | 1.264 | 1.633 | 1.351 | 117.837 |
| 3 | Texas | 1.517 | -0.349 | 1.024 | 1.863 | 0.846 | 1.252 | 0.821 | 0.988 | 2.085 | 2.000 | 107.670 |
| 4 | Iowa | 1.517 | 1.636 | 1.579 | 0.090 | 0.365 | 0.604 | -0.714 | 1.448 | -0.465 | 0.095 | 96.059 |
| 5 | Boise St. | 1.517 | -0.387 | 1.622 | 0.344 | 0.117 | 0.901 | 1.585 | 1.142 | 1.078 | 0.553 | 87.020 |
| 6 | Penn St. | 0.637 | 0.464 | 1.024 | 1.277 | 1.558 | 1.625 | 0.123 | 1.601 | -0.068 | 0.982 | 85.850 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 1.517 | -0.438 | 0.900 | 0.261 | 1.245 | 0.463 | 1.986 | 1.142 | 1.431 | -0.159 | 85.499 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 0.344 | -0.056 | 1.077 | 1.999 | 0.187 | 1.776 | 1.218 | 2.285 | 1.077 | 0.822 | 81.460 |
| 9 | Kansas | 1.517 | -0.960 | -0.054 | 1.614 | 1.294 | 0.510 | 0.999 | 1.203 | 1.942 | 1.135 | 79.039 |
| 10 | LSU | 1.517 | 0.672 | 1.323 | 0.048 | 0.487 | 0.181 | 0.595 | 0.988 | -1.020 | -0.586 | 74.716 |
| 11 | North Carolina St. | 0.637 | -0.571 | 0.505 | 1.267 | 1.113 | 2.096 | 1.479 | 1.050 | 0.391 | 2.130 | 74.350 |
| 12 | South Fla. | 1.517 | -2.066 | 1.227 | 0.515 | 0.998 | 1.495 | 1.693 | 2.031 | 0.799 | 2.234 | 73.643 |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | 0.637 | 2.597 | 1.570 | -0.579 | -0.563 | 0.297 | -0.445 | 0.835 | -0.403 | 1.017 | 71.245 |
| 14 | Nebraska | 0.637 | 0.092 | 1.037 | 0.442 | 0.794 | 0.876 | 0.969 | 2.000 | 0.891 | 0.208 | 68.203 |
| 15 | UCLA | 1.517 | -0.550 | 1.683 | 1.301 | -0.785 | 1.375 | -0.687 | 1.305 | -1.148 | 1.307 | 67.652 |
| 16 | Southern California | 0.637 | 0.212 | 1.135 | 1.609 | -1.599 | 1.723 | 0.413 | 1.632 | 0.656 | 1.017 | 67.609 |
| 17 | Auburn | 1.517 | -0.895 | 0.886 | -0.351 | 1.113 | 0.264 | 1.668 | -0.115 | 2.159 | -0.718 | 66.098 |
| 18 | Arizona | 0.637 | 1.025 | 0.545 | 0.883 | 0.069 | 0.836 | -0.126 | 0.345 | 0.479 | -0.560 | 61.779 |
| 19 | TCU | 1.517 | -1.985 | 0.815 | 1.433 | -0.163 | 1.462 | 1.289 | 1.019 | 0.675 | 0.760 | 61.433 |
| 20 | Ohio St. | 0.637 | 0.119 | 1.288 | 0.774 | 0.309 | 1.263 | -0.033 | 1.479 | -0.182 | -0.419 | 60.508 |
| 21 | Connecticut | 0.637 | 0.061 | 0.354 | 1.433 | 0.266 | 1.647 | -0.514 | 1.019 | -0.241 | 1.513 | 57.521 |
| 22 | Georgia Tech | 0.637 | 1.528 | -0.446 | 0.644 | 0.653 | 0.358 | 0.215 | 0.284 | 0.115 | -0.080 | 57.463 |
| 23 | BYU | 0.637 | 0.633 | -0.184 | 0.074 | 2.017 | 0.025 | 1.165 | 0.008 | 0.788 | -1.007 | 54.004 |
| 24 | Texas A&M | 1.517 | -2.338 | 0.781 | -0.178 | 2.057 | -0.082 | 1.549 | 0.611 | 2.866 | 1.379 | 53.771 |
| 25 | West Virginia | 0.344 | -0.124 | 0.134 | 1.108 | 1.927 | 0.492 | 0.767 | -0.452 | 1.557 | -0.027 | 51.658 |
| 26 | South Carolina | 0.637 | 0.555 | 0.422 | 0.764 | -0.571 | 1.404 | -0.415 | 0.713 | -0.124 | 0.245 | 49.899 |
| 27 | Miami (FL) | 0.344 | 2.642 | -0.628 | -0.455 | -0.206 | 0.174 | 0.956 | -0.492 | 0.004 | -0.278 | 48.055 |
| 28 | North Carolina | 0.637 | 0.593 | 1.108 | 0.385 | -1.121 | 1.383 | -0.101 | 1.111 | -1.057 | 0.743 | 47.893 |
| 29 | Houston | 1.517 | -0.516 | 0.206 | -0.711 | 0.842 | -0.690 | 1.155 | -0.002 | 2.405 | -1.425 | 47.390 |
| 30 | Michigan | 1.517 | 0.179 | 0.186 | -0.102 | 0.365 | -0.576 | -0.057 | 0.069 | 0.630 | 0.222 | 47.207 |
| 31 | Oregon | 0.637 | 1.589 | 0.990 | 0.095 | -1.121 | 0.246 | -0.450 | 0.345 | -0.638 | 0.429 | 45.528 |
| 32 | Arizona St. | 0.344 | -0.331 | 1.487 | 1.301 | -0.437 | 1.954 | -1.109 | 1.346 | -0.981 | 0.987 | 43.747 |
| 33 | Air Force | 0.637 | -1.625 | 0.679 | 0.639 | 1.113 | 1.060 | 1.352 | 1.418 | 0.402 | 1.936 | 41.067 |
| 34 | Georgia | 0.637 | 1.093 | -0.142 | 0.504 | 0.117 | -0.141 | 0.943 | -0.789 | -0.326 | 0.626 | 40.734 |
| 35 | Tennessee | -0.242 | 0.622 | 0.798 | 1.039 | 0.156 | 1.636 | -0.587 | 0.651 | -0.160 | 0.413 | 39.619 |
| 36 | Utah | 0.637 | -0.374 | 1.196 | 0.043 | -0.315 | 0.742 | -0.053 | 0.529 | 0.784 | 2.225 | 38.774 |
| 37 | Clemson | -0.242 | 2.070 | 1.343 | -0.185 | -0.591 | 0.814 | -1.241 | 0.866 | -0.767 | 0.834 | 37.506 |
| 38 | Stanford | 0.637 | -0.213 | -0.001 | 0.375 | 0.878 | 0.213 | 0.492 | 0.774 | 0.589 | 0.054 | 36.128 |
| 39 | Wisconsin | 1.517 | -1.233 | -0.424 | -0.180 | 1.645 | -0.373 | 1.359 | -0.054 | 0.714 | -0.560 | 35.908 |
| 40 | Oklahoma St. | 0.637 | -0.457 | 0.485 | 0.390 | 0.661 | -0.080 | 1.270 | 0.253 | 0.593 | 0.715 | 35.438 |
| 41 | Southern Miss. | 0.637 | -1.000 | 0.030 | 1.510 | 0.309 | 0.709 | 0.652 | 0.161 | 0.869 | 0.281 | 35.136 |
| 42 | Missouri | 1.517 | -2.043 | 0.382 | 0.069 | 0.552 | -0.083 | 1.559 | 0.958 | 1.082 | -0.525 | 33.927 |
| 43 | California | 0.637 | 0.267 | -0.739 | 0.634 | 0.397 | 0.145 | 0.189 | 0.314 | 0.571 | 0.281 | 31.372 |
| 44 | Idaho | 0.637 | -0.291 | -0.844 | 0.727 | 1.716 | 0.228 | 0.784 | -0.176 | 0.387 | -2.308 | 30.807 |
| 45 | Washington | -0.242 | 2.525 | -0.365 | -1.217 | 1.988 | -0.482 | -0.038 | -0.237 | -0.304 | 0.008 | 28.977 |
| 46 | Boston College | 0.637 | -0.462 | 0.708 | 0.587 | -0.896 | 1.176 | -0.104 | 1.142 | -1.013 | 1.182 | 27.943 |
| 47 | Baylor | 0.344 | -0.307 | 1.105 | -0.573 | 0.435 | 0.671 | 0.802 | 0.243 | 0.298 | -0.940 | 27.740 |
| 48 | Central Mich. | 0.637 | -0.870 | -0.050 | 0.499 | 0.712 | 1.042 | 0.073 | 0.805 | -0.278 | 1.073 | 27.615 |
| 49 | Indiana | 0.637 | 0.039 | -0.536 | 0.888 | -0.049 | 0.271 | -0.241 | 0.130 | 0.277 | 0.003 | 24.714 |
| 50 | Notre Dame | 0.637 | -0.162 | -0.465 | 0.136 | 0.487 | -0.634 | 1.517 | 0.130 | 1.111 | -0.089 | 23.769 |
| 51 | Mississippi | 0.344 | -0.994 | 1.214 | 0.762 | -0.996 | 0.806 | -0.014 | 1.387 | -0.202 | 1.915 | 19.106 |
| 52 | Texas Tech | -0.242 | 0.081 | 0.170 | 0.707 | 0.462 | 0.003 | 0.784 | 0.222 | 1.416 | -0.883 | 18.645 |
| 53 | Mississippi St. | -0.242 | 1.074 | 0.791 | 0.173 | -0.576 | 0.655 | -1.057 | 0.130 | -0.351 | 1.009 | 17.549 |
| 54 | Kansas St. | -0.242 | -0.541 | 1.103 | 0.945 | -0.695 | 1.516 | -0.602 | 0.897 | -0.065 | 0.651 | 15.500 |
| 55 | Florida St. | -0.242 | 1.824 | -1.215 | 0.520 | 0.532 | -0.887 | 0.339 | 0.038 | 0.325 | 0.487 | 15.120 |
| 56 | Minnesota | 0.637 | 0.612 | -0.385 | -0.154 | -0.092 | -0.170 | -0.385 | 0.038 | -0.767 | -0.905 | 13.094 |
| 57 | Tulsa | 0.637 | -1.551 | -0.310 | 0.624 | 0.226 | 0.286 | 1.287 | 0.682 | 0.619 | 0.487 | 12.911 |
| 58 | Wake Forest | -0.242 | 0.504 | -0.509 | -0.009 | 0.838 | -0.123 | 0.981 | 0.559 | 0.483 | -0.294 | 11.582 |
| 59 | Hawaii | 0.344 | -1.368 | 0.099 | 0.216 | 0.552 | -0.459 | 2.197 | -0.166 | 1.998 | -0.728 | 11.060 |
| 60 | Iowa St. | 0.637 | 0.097 | -0.037 | -0.445 | -0.293 | -0.174 | -0.971 | 0.529 | 0.027 | 0.785 | 8.360 |
| 61 | Colorado St. | 0.637 | -0.722 | 0.139 | 0.831 | -1.121 | 0.087 | 0.665 | -0.268 | -0.105 | -1.568 | 7.329 |
| 62 | Oregon St. | -0.242 | 0.343 | -0.560 | 0.930 | 0.552 | -0.264 | 0.078 | 0.008 | 0.178 | -0.723 | 3.752 |
| 63 | Pittsburgh | 0.637 | -0.698 | -0.721 | 0.510 | -0.613 | -0.083 | 1.287 | 0.345 | -0.285 | -0.746 | 3.670 |
| 64 | Vanderbilt | -0.242 | -0.556 | 1.770 | -0.470 | -0.437 | 1.158 | -1.720 | 1.172 | -0.171 | 1.856 | 2.514 |
| 65 | Fresno St. | -1.121 | 1.796 | -0.647 | -0.201 | 1.113 | -0.351 | -0.107 | -0.605 | 1.512 | 0.581 | 1.760 |
| 66 | Navy | -0.242 | -0.400 | -0.796 | 0.520 | 1.803 | 0.184 | 0.614 | -0.023 | -0.337 | 0.229 | 1.093 |
| 67 | Rutgers | 0.637 | -0.963 | -0.402 | 1.023 | -0.504 | -0.011 | -0.521 | 0.345 | -0.418 | 0.822 | -0.478 |
| 68 | Northwestern | -0.242 | -1.025 | -0.266 | 0.105 | 1.791 | 0.130 | 1.014 | -0.513 | 0.549 | 0.319 | -2.875 |
| 69 | UNLV | -0.242 | -0.469 | -0.935 | 0.510 | 2.034 | -0.319 | 0.411 | 0.130 | 0.384 | -0.755 | -3.136 |
| 70 | Kentucky | 0.344 | -0.351 | 0.540 | -1.008 | 0.510 | -0.111 | -0.664 | 0.079 | -0.614 | 0.212 | -3.789 |
| 71 | Michigan St. | -1.121 | 1.134 | -1.026 | 0.489 | 0.641 | -0.243 | 1.056 | -0.299 | 0.869 | -0.931 | -7.374 |
| 72 | Marshall | 0.637 | -0.137 | 0.087 | -0.673 | -0.383 | -0.999 | -0.514 | -0.391 | -0.605 | -1.158 | -12.862 |
| 73 | Middle Tenn. | 0.637 | -1.049 | 0.150 | -0.320 | -0.797 | -0.406 | -0.420 | -0.299 | 0.409 | 0.281 | -12.864 |
| 74 | La.-Monroe | -0.242 | -0.316 | -0.184 | 0.442 | 0.108 | -0.384 | 0.341 | -0.881 | -0.006 | -0.541 | -15.330 |
| 75 | La.-Lafayette | -0.242 | 0.897 | -0.866 | -0.310 | 0.338 | -0.492 | -0.740 | -0.820 | -0.748 | -1.244 | -18.830 |
| 76 | Western Mich. | -0.242 | -0.239 | -0.309 | -0.413 | 0.653 | -0.641 | 0.167 | 0.100 | -0.322 | -0.248 | -20.779 |
| 77 | Bowling Green | -1.121 | 2.017 | -0.279 | -0.968 | 0.120 | -0.536 | -0.567 | -0.421 | -0.491 | 0.641 | -20.977 |
| 78 | Northern Ill. | -0.242 | 0.036 | -0.804 | -0.232 | -0.139 | -0.322 | 0.448 | 0.100 | -0.304 | -1.447 | -21.841 |
| 79 | Duke | -0.242 | -0.265 | 0.121 | -0.336 | -1.212 | 0.166 | -0.080 | -0.237 | -0.116 | 0.193 | -22.663 |
| 80 | SMU | 0.344 | -1.994 | 0.918 | 0.575 | -0.538 | -0.705 | -0.537 | -0.657 | 0.773 | 0.039 | -22.732 |
| 81 | Ohio | -0.242 | -0.884 | 1.161 | -1.253 | -0.306 | 0.170 | -0.375 | -0.115 | -0.987 | 0.957 | -29.002 |
| 82 | Purdue | -1.121 | 1.127 | 0.238 | -0.839 | 0.066 | -1.093 | -0.129 | -0.850 | 0.612 | -0.715 | -30.701 |
| 83 | UCF | -0.242 | -1.194 | -0.511 | 0.810 | 0.447 | 0.116 | -0.508 | 0.222 | -1.542 | -0.688 | -31.891 |
| 84 | San Diego St. | -1.121 | 0.314 | 0.494 | -0.517 | -0.013 | 0.264 | -0.535 | -0.575 | -0.682 | -0.883 | -33.122 |
| 85 | Louisville | -0.828 | -0.639 | 0.070 | 0.070 | -0.514 | 0.844 | -0.867 | -0.044 | -0.393 | -0.644 | -35.592 |
| 86 | Syracuse | -0.242 | 0.091 | -1.229 | 1.121 | -2.142 | -0.688 | 0.504 | -0.483 | -0.752 | -0.379 | -36.024 |
| 87 | East Carolina | -0.242 | -0.252 | -1.285 | 0.276 | 0.435 | -0.507 | -1.126 | -0.329 | -1.142 | -0.620 | -38.813 |
| 88 | Army | -0.242 | -1.318 | -0.067 | 0.603 | -0.876 | 0.630 | -1.836 | -0.115 | -0.895 | 0.068 | -40.181 |
| 89 | Buffalo | -1.121 | -0.539 | 0.251 | -0.802 | 0.423 | 0.188 | 0.574 | -1.157 | -0.182 | -0.620 | -42.681 |
| 90 | Arkansas St. | -0.828 | -0.201 | -0.976 | 0.769 | -1.391 | -0.155 | 0.293 | 0.079 | -0.310 | -0.101 | -42.708 |
| 91 | Wyoming | -0.242 | 0.109 | 0.218 | -0.045 | -1.559 | -1.025 | -1.449 | -0.636 | -0.822 | -0.586 | -42.970 |
| 92 | Troy | -0.242 | -0.105 | -1.075 | -0.201 | -0.945 | -0.934 | 0.030 | -1.065 | -0.061 | -0.723 | -44.240 |
| 93 | Illinois | -0.828 | 0.330 | -0.935 | 0.098 | -0.078 | -0.579 | -1.398 | -0.575 | -0.467 | -1.158 | -47.632 |
| 94 | Toledo | -0.242 | -0.663 | 0.246 | -1.331 | -0.007 | -1.796 | 0.105 | -2.015 | 1.380 | -1.666 | -48.538 |
| 95 | Temple | -0.828 | -0.617 | -0.299 | 0.430 | -0.600 | -0.280 | -0.548 | -0.044 | -0.677 | -0.516 | -48.827 |
| 96 | Arkansas | -0.828 | 0.876 | -2.710 | 0.278 | -2.028 | -0.589 | 0.808 | -1.105 | 0.940 | 0.085 | -50.343 |
| 97 | New Mexico St. | -0.242 | -1.772 | 0.362 | -0.387 | 0.195 | 0.213 | -1.770 | -0.023 | -1.369 | -1.331 | -52.346 |
| 98 | North Texas | -1.121 | 0.062 | 0.222 | -0.678 | -1.018 | -0.492 | -0.745 | -1.157 | -0.175 | 0.291 | -57.214 |
| 99 | Colorado | -0.828 | 0.384 | -0.918 | -0.953 | -0.302 | -0.927 | -1.116 | -0.289 | -0.540 | 0.923 | -57.311 |
| 100 | Kent St. | -0.242 | -0.826 | 0.483 | -0.543 | -2.643 | -0.384 | -0.950 | 0.192 | -1.627 | -0.027 | -60.356 |
| 101 | Louisiana Tech | -0.828 | -0.210 | -0.156 | -2.377 | 0.542 | -0.893 | -0.165 | -0.492 | -0.824 | -0.735 | -64.280 |
| 102 | Memphis | -1.121 | 0.178 | -0.514 | -0.880 | -1.018 | -0.630 | -0.743 | -0.728 | -0.748 | 0.633 | -67.561 |
| 103 | Akron | -1.121 | 0.345 | -0.726 | -0.699 | -0.840 | -0.492 | -0.387 | -0.728 | -1.575 | -1.905 | -67.812 |
| 104 | Utah St. | -0.828 | -0.254 | -0.404 | -1.229 | -1.870 | -2.032 | 0.275 | -1.515 | 1.611 | 0.393 | -75.124 |
| 105 | Virginia | -2.000 | 0.390 | 0.565 | -0.904 | -0.769 | 0.024 | -1.236 | -0.942 | -1.486 | 1.307 | -75.667 |
| 106 | Maryland | -1.121 | 0.115 | -0.936 | -1.347 | -0.462 | -0.956 | -0.370 | -1.831 | -0.362 | 0.416 | -76.163 |
| 107 | Eastern Mich. | -2.000 | 0.839 | 1.789 | -3.137 | -0.527 | -0.295 | -1.301 | -1.187 | -1.520 | -0.596 | -81.039 |
| 108 | Miami (OH) | -2.000 | 0.993 | -1.444 | -0.771 | 0.178 | -0.597 | -1.431 | -2.260 | -0.598 | -1.456 | -87.933 |
| 109 | UTEP | -1.121 | 0.880 | -0.539 | -1.803 | -0.555 | -1.535 | -1.934 | -1.218 | -2.009 | -0.931 | -88.237 |
| 110 | Fla. Atlantic | -2.000 | 1.394 | -1.314 | -2.017 | 0.435 | -1.603 | -0.829 | -1.800 | 0.170 | 0.113 | -89.351 |
| 111 | Washington St. | -1.121 | 1.078 | -1.547 | -0.585 | -1.418 | -2.281 | -1.460 | -1.157 | -0.958 | 0.039 | -89.439 |
| 112 | Nevada | -2.000 | 1.975 | -3.386 | -0.165 | -0.139 | -1.607 | -1.094 | -1.270 | -0.231 | -1.069 | -91.737 |
| 113 | UAB | -1.121 | -0.492 | -1.228 | -0.341 | -0.327 | -1.951 | -1.104 | -1.494 | 0.126 | -1.348 | -92.847 |
| 114 | Tulane | -0.828 | -0.320 | -1.845 | -1.713 | -0.591 | -1.805 | 0.467 | -2.168 | -0.908 | -1.931 | -100.729 |
| 115 | FIU | -2.000 | 1.533 | -0.874 | -1.706 | -0.327 | -2.114 | -1.215 | -1.392 | -1.432 | 0.386 | -101.123 |
| 116 | San Jose St. | -1.121 | 0.397 | -0.854 | -2.254 | -2.302 | -1.560 | -1.028 | -1.157 | -1.803 | -0.481 | -110.916 |
| 117 | New Mexico | -2.000 | 0.700 | -1.486 | -1.388 | -2.264 | -1.086 | -1.385 | -1.494 | -1.726 | -1.225 | -127.229 |
| 118 | Ball St. | -2.000 | -0.367 | -1.135 | -1.653 | -0.757 | -0.996 | -1.927 | -0.850 | -1.641 | -0.163 | -130.416 |
| 119 | Rice | -2.000 | -0.222 | -1.739 | -0.719 | -0.812 | -1.908 | -1.672 | -2.536 | -0.774 | -0.582 | -136.278 |
| 120 | Western Ky. | -2.000 | 0.037 | -2.651 | -3.374 | -1.212 | -2.223 | -1.504 | -2.168 | -1.579 | -3.074 | -177.283 |
Observations:
- Iowa?!? Even after the Penn State upset, the ascendancy of Iowa to #4 surprised me. That early struggle they had against Northern Iowa had set me against them as a possibly good team, but they really have been impressive since then. Their biggest boon is a schedule that ranks toughest in the nation so far, thanks to their opponents generally winning out otherwise, and the opponents of their opponents generally winning out. Beatpaths are very much in their favor at this point. But their pass efficiency defense is up with the best of them as well, and only their passing offense is holding their numbers back. It's a great early resume from a team that nobody was talking about prior to Saturday.
- Virginia Tech and Miami - too low? I feel they are, and I wonder if the win/loss component is too heavy at the moment. With early schedules, the difference between undefeated and one loss against a major team doesn't really carry a lot of meaning. Perhaps this should be de-emphasized early on. I pass that to you as a question because it seems counter-intuitive.
- Auburn? After starting 4-0 with a prolific offense and wins over West Virginia and Mississippi State, you'd think they would be higher than LSU. But in a bizarre twist, their strength of schedule is far lower than I anticipated (#102 out of all D-1A teams). This is because their opponents (and the opponents of their oppoents) aren't winning. Given the struggles they had with West Virginia and that they likely would have lost if WVU hadn't handed them the game, maybe this is a bit of an early red flag. But I still think they should be higher at this point.
- Texas A&M Another team making me think that Win/Loss counts for too much early on. They have played nobody. And there's no reason to expect them to be top-25ish. Over time, they'll undoubtedly crater downward where they belong, but I'm willing to listen to a reason to bump them down right now.
- TCU Sporting the mid-major curse of the poor strength of schedule, they stand to rise naturally as other metrics take on more weight. But for now, they feel a little low.
- Nebraska Average schedule, no notable weaknesses.
There you go. Hack away!
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The raw data is a fair sight more reasonable this week
Which, coupled with the fact that teams #4-30 are interchangeable, makes this poll harder to gripe about.
*USF got their big win. They can stay ranked.
*Iowa is overrated, but they’ve proved worthy of a solid ranking, so they’re probably not overrated by more than 10 spots.
*LSU is overrated (still), but there aren’t a whole lot of other teams to stick ahead of them.
*VT and Miami are both underrated.
*Nebraska probably deserves their ranking. They outplayed VT and have owned 3 weaker teams.
*A&M probably doesn’t. Utah State? Seriously?
*I expected a big TCU jump after the win over Clemson. I guess it wasn’t as big because Clemson is just 2-2.
*Teams 26-31 can all argue for being ranked. I feel like Oregon’s case is the strongest, with a road loss to a top 5 team and a dominating win over a decent Cal team.
*I don’t understand Arizona’s top 25 case. They’re 3-1 against a mediocre schedule. And?
*The most overrated team is NCState. They’re 1-1 against I-A schools, with the only win at home over Pittsburgh (who isn’t bad, but isn’t that good either).
by Incipient_Senescence on Sep 27, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions
TAMU? Absolutely not.
Houston? Absolutely yes. I’m still undecided on Oregon – I need another week of good performance.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 27, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks. (And this time, I'll listen more. ;-)
Quick replies:
+ Agreed on USF, Iowa, LSU, VT, Miami, Nebraska, A&M, TCU, and NC State.
+ TCU’s problem is (a) only having played 3 games against an 0-3 Virginia, a 1-AA Texas State, and a 2-2 Clemson. It’s absolutely destroying their SoS, but that will improve over the next few weeks by default, and they should rise in a hurry.
+ Arizona is riding the coattails of a close game against Iowa, along with wins against respectable Oregon State and Central Michigan squads. Since SoS is a function of opposing win/loss records (and, to a lesser degree the w/l of their opponents), Arizona’s is numerically equivalent to that of Georgia and Mississippi State. I’m surprised by them as well, but I can see how that works out.
+ I’m thinking Houston in, TAMU out as well. At the absolute minimum.
by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
And, once again:
Cincinnati is too low.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
Iowa sucks!
Did anyone watch that game? Miserable football. But that describes the entire Big 10. They all suck. Iowa was flat-out lucky to beat Northern Iowa in their season opener!
Good question.
Let me backtrack that. I forgot about PSU.
by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Short answer: a previously very low Strength of Schedule that got a huge bump.
SoS went from -0.822 to 0.4645 because of Iowa and because of previous opponents doing well. Other than that, Iowa didn’t really hurt their defensive numbers, which are a little more important than offensive numbers (higher correlations to winning). That made up most of the ground lost from the decrement in the W/L column (1.338 to 0.637). Oddly enough, they lost 17.5 points on W/L (25 * the difference) and gained 19.3 on SOS (15 * the difference).
by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
My question about Penn State, then, is this:
Should they drop? If so, how far?
They’re ahead of Cincy by the tiniest of fractions (0.351 points), so one a one spot drop is no big deal. The next few spots are more substantial. Would that be warranted?
by David Hooper on Sep 27, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say definitely behind Cincy
If the numbers are that far on their side after that, I’m not crazy enough about any of those other teams to bump them up that far in return, unless it was solely for the sake of rewarding teams that are still undefeated like LSU.
Will - Rocky Top Talk
by Will Shelton on Sep 28, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I can be on board with that.
Cincy’s SOS took a nosedive because of Fresno State, but that doesn’t mean that Fresno is a bad team necessarily. And besides, Pike looks really good up there.
LSU has big problems in their offensive production that is holding them back, so I think I’d prefer to leave them alone until they show more from their offense. (And MSU really should have won that game.)
by David Hooper on Sep 28, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps best of the one loss teams?
Rocky Top Talk
by Joel Hollingsworth on Sep 28, 2009 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions
That'd be just one spot.
And still ahead of Oklahoma. Which sounds fine.
by David Hooper on Sep 28, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions

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