Tennessee Volunteers vs. Auburn Tigers: somebody stop that offense!
by Joel Hollingsworth on Sep 30, 2009 7:42 AM EDT
in Tennessee Volunteer Football
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A weekly look at our upcoming opponent's recent history, with animated drive charts and links to SB Nation game pages.
Keys to the game
- This game features Auburn's high-powered, well-balanced offense going against a stingy Monte Kiffin defense and Tennessee's high-powered but unbalanced offense against a not-so-stingy Auburn defense. For that reason, expect a bit of the "Florida Plan," with Tennessee's appetite equal portions clock and yardage to keep Gus Malzahn's offense off the field as much as possible.
- Turnovers and, to a lesser degree, special teams may decide this game. Which is why . . .
- . . . my prediction is . . . Auburn 28, Tennessee 26.
Schedule and Animated Drive Charts
 |
|||||
| Opponent |
Date
|
W/L
|
Score
|
Opp. W/L
|
|
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
9/5/09
|
W
|
1-2
|
||
| Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
9/12/09
|
W
|
2-2
|
||
| West Virginia Mountaineers |
9/19/09
|
W
|
2-1
|
||
| Ball St. Cardinals |
9/26/09
|
W
|
0-4
|
||
| Totals |
4-0
|
181-97
|
5-9
|
||
Well. It appeared to be a fairly tight game against Louisiana Tech (proud owner of one of college football's worst logos) right up until the end of the Festival of Turnovers. Chalk that up to the how-do-you-work-this-thing-new-offense jitters. Post-game quotes of note from Track Em Tigers: "How about these stats: 556 yards of offense with 327 coming in the second half and 301 yards rushing. . . . We still don't know much about this 2009 Auburn team, but it looks better than anything we saw last season. At this point we can ask for little more."
Hmm. Offense just keeps rolling right along with seven touchdowns against Mississippi State. Post-game quotes of note:
The Bulldogs had few answers for the Auburn offense, which posted 589 total yards. The passing game, plagued by dropped balls, didn't fare quite as well as last week against Louisiana Tech, but it was adequate, with no interceptions, and 8.0 net yards per pass. The running game thrived again, picking up 395 yards, an average of 6.6 yards per carry. McCalebb and Tate were AGAIN both over 100 yards. Darvin Adams picked up 5 catches for 115 yards, despite two drops.
Wowza. The drive chart makes it look like West Virginia had this game won until that poor Mountaineer quarterback threw four interceptions on four consecutive drives late in the second half. Even we haven't done that. Yet. (And if we have, please don't make me remember because I like it this way.)
Snooze. Another game, another seven touchdowns. Must get boring. Right? Right? Hello!
So . . . four games. 21 touchdowns, 12 through the air and 9 on the ground. Auburn has put up 2,100 yards of offense already this season. Sure, make whatever accounting you want for the schedule to date, but . . . wow. To give it a little perspective, the Wargle Tigers had 19 touchdowns and 3600 yards of offense the entire 2008 season.
National Unit Rankings
Now on to the national rankings.
| Category | National Rank | Actual | National Leader | Actual | Conf Rank | SEC Leader | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense | 5 | 261.25 | Air Force | 319.00 | 2 | Florida | 307.50 |
| Passing Offense | 27 | 265.00 | Hawaii | 423.33 | 2 | Arkansas | 348.67 |
| Total Offense | T-3 | 526.25 | Texas A&M | 574.33 | 1 | Auburn | 526.25 |
| Scoring Offense | 3 | 45.25 | Texas | 49.50 | 2 | Florida | 45.50 |
| Rushing Defense | 82 | 154.00 | Oklahoma | 40.67 | 10 | Alabama | 47.25 |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 28 | 101.26 | Florida | 75.31 | 6 | Florida | 75.31 |
| Total Defense | 41 | 327.75 | North Carolina St. | 201.25 | 8 | Alabama | 202.50 |
| Scoring Defense | 69 | 24.25 | Oklahoma | 4.67 | 10 | Florida | 7.25 |
| Net Punting | 102 | 32.57 | BYU | 43.70 | 10 | Georgia | 43.31 |
| Punt Returns | 111 | 2.89 | Louisiana Tech | 45.50 | 11 | Alabama | 18.81 |
| Kickoff Returns | 84 | 20.36 | Stanford | 41.67 | 10 | Florida | 34.50 |
| Turnover Margin | T-5 | 1.75 | Arizona St. | 3.33 | 1 | LSU | 1.75 |
| Pass Defense | 34 | 173.75 | Eastern Mich. | 78.00 | 8 | Vanderbilt | 106.25 |
| Passing Efficiency | 6 | 168.70 | Hawaii | 180.65 | 3 | Florida | 173.93 |
| Sacks | T-31 | 2.50 | Texas A&M | 4.67 | 5 | South Carolina | 3.50 |
| Tackles For Loss | T-59 | 5.75 | Oklahoma | 11.33 | 7 | Alabama | 8.00 |
| Sacks Allowed | 1 | .50 | Pittsburgh | .50 | 1 | Auburn | .50 |
Observations
Offense. Like I was harping on up there in the drive chart section, these aren't your last year's Warglers. Their rushing offense is currently ranked 5th in the nation with about 261 yards per game, and their passing game isn't far behind, ranking 27th with 265 yards per game. Those 526 yards per game is good for 3rd in the nation and first in the SEC. They're like Florida with downfield threats in the passing game. The good news is that Monte's defense is currently ranked 8th in the nation, holding its opponents to 233 yards per game. We held Florida to 323 yards and 23 points, so that's probably your best case scenario.
Defense. Well, here's a bit of good news: Auburn's defense is only mediocre across the board and is especially vulnerable against the run. Auburn ranks 82nd in the nation and 10th in the SEC in rush defense. The Vols' prior opponents currently rank 120 (guess who!), 9th, 19th, and 108th in the same category, and we put up 380, 115, 208, and 177 yards against them. That 177 yards is a bit of an outlier as it came against Ohio, a game in which we were largely foregoing the run in a desperate attempt to fix our passing game. I'd say we should expect something over 200 and under 250 yards rushing, which incidentally is less than what we're likely to give up to them on the ground.
Special teams. So far, Auburn's proven to be no real threat in any facet of the special teams game. Perhaps this would be a good time for Nu'Keese Richardson or David Oku to break a long one.
Turnovers. The Tigers are tied for 5th in the nation in turnover margin, having taken 4 fumbles and 8 interceptions while giving away only 3 fumbles and two interceptions.
Stastical Comparison
Here's how the two teams stack up against each other in each of the key statistical categories in hooper's wizbang BlogPoll Computerer:
| Rank | Team | WL | SOS | PED | RD | 3DO | TD | PEO | OPPG | TO | 3DD |
|
25
|
|
1
|
102
|
28
|
82
|
14
|
41
|
6
|
69
|
3
|
91
|
|
34
|
 |
60
|
28
|
30
|
15
|
55
|
8
|
86
|
33
|
60
|
41
|
Players to watch for
Observations
Running backs. Ben Tate is Auburn's Montario Hardesty, although he's not ranked quite as high. Their second guy -- Onterio McCalebb -- ranks much better than our Bryce Brown, though, so watch out for these guys. Call this a push except that Benterio should have rougher going against Monte's D than Brytario should have against Auburn's D.
Quarterbacks. Chris Todd is ranked 6th in the nation in passing efficiency, and he hasn't thrown eight interceptions (he's thrown just one). Hidden in there is Kodi Burns, the Wild Wargleiger who's run only 25 times for 67 yards, but has four TDs among those numbers. He's also thrown a TD on four passing attempts, so you can't just think he's going to run every time.
Receivers. The go-to receivers appear to be Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery.
Defense. Uh-oh. The Tigers have a whopping eight guys with interceptions already this year.
Special teams. There doesn't appear to be anything special about Auburn's special teams.
Conclusions
- Don't expect Auburn to continue to completely blow up the scoreboard like they have against their five four opponents, but do expect game-long frustration in keeping them from moving the ball, even with Monte on the sidelines, especially with the recent rash of injuries we've suffered on that side of the ball. This concludes our run-on sentence.
- Expect Tennessee to run, run, run, as it's the offense's best chance of keeping up with the Tigers in yardage and on the scoreboard. FINISH, because if we settle for field goals, we are doomed.
- Expect special teams (mostly field position) and turnovers to decide this game.
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Comments
If special teams is the deciding factor
then Tennessee should win.
Auburn needed turnovers in order to beat WVU, and I don’t forsee Tennessee getting too pass-happy this week. I they’ll keep it on the ground, play good defense, and win the field position battle.
I think Tennessee wins this one in a thriller
Vols out tough the tigers for a 21-17 victory
Comparing run defenses a bit further:
Borrowing from the post: UT’s run offense vs. opponent defenses
Well, here’s a bit of good news: Auburn’s defense is only mediocre across the board and is especially vulnerable against the run. Auburn ranks 82nd in the nation and 10th in the SEC in rush defense. The Vols’ prior opponents currently rank 120 (guess who!), 9th, 19th, and 108th in the same category, and we put up 380, 115, 208, and 177 yards against them.
Auburn’s, in contrast (with teams listed in order played):
Yards rushed by Auburn: 301, 390, 100, 254
Opponent rankings: 118, 56, 14, 112
The MSU game (the second one) appears to be an outlier because it sort of is: Auburn rushed 59 times in that game for a 6.6 yard-per-carry average. By averages, they’re doing about 6-7 ypc except for WVU, who held them to 2.4.
Now, comparing Tennessee’s run defense to WVU: UT is ranked 15 in contrast to WVU’s 12, though it’s actually really close. WVU has played Liberty, East Carolina, and Auburn in contrast to UT’s WKU, UCLA, Florida, and Ohio. This early in the season, you can’t conclusively label one unit better than the other, though I really do think UT’s will prove to be so over the long haul.
In short, I think that UT has the potential to hold down Auburn’s run game as well as WVU did. I’m guessing it won’t be quite as good, as 2.4 ypc is really, really low, but I can see under 4. And that would hold Auburn to well under 200 yards rushing on the day (and probably closer to 100). We’ll see.
Aargh. blockquote fail
meant to include both sets of #’s in the second blockquote.
by David Hooper on Sep 30, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions
100 yards rushing is probably a UT win - 200 a UT loss
The 3rd game – 14th ranked defense yielding 100 yards – provides hope.
Our secondary is green and Ohio made a lot of catches b/c senior guys knew how to make space and break on the ball. The bazillion yards passing with an accurate QB – that’s the real concern.
by memphispete on Sep 30, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
If the game comes down to special teams...
I have to agree with Golfballs – I think Tennessee would win in that case. Based on our previous special teams performances, UT should expect at least one turnover from Auburn. Here’s hoping for a great game and no injuries on either sideline. WDE!
Your place kicker is having a nice year, though.
But if you’re busy kicking 50-yarders (or even 30-yarders), I’ll be happy.
by David Hooper on Sep 30, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Place kicker is ok, but we are lacking on return d
"Jay Jacobs can't go to the bathroom without Bobby Lowder's permission" - Paul Finebaum
by GumptownTiger on Sep 30, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is how it will play out
UT will limit Auburn’s running game. As a result, Auburn will get pass-happy. It is impossible to be pass-happy and avoid #14 all at the same time. It follows that Auburn will not be able to employ the “let’s not throw it anywhere near Eric Berry” strategy.
They’ll throw it to him. And he’ll get him a pick six. We get a pick six, we win.
And I don’t know the exact numbers, but the odds of winning shift pretty heavily to a team when they get a pick six. Actually, this is a stat that I am really interested in knowing. The winning percentage in games where a team finishes at least +1 against the other team in the pick six category. I would venture to get the number is quite high. Like 80 percent-ish high.
Hmmm…how could I find this out. Who would compile such information?
_______________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
I saw such a stat sometime last year, I think
It was about the odds of winning if your team gets either a defensive or special teams touchdown. I think it was a quote from Urban Meyer. I don’t know where you’d go to look for something like that, but I’d start with a Google search using some keywords along those lines. Let us know what you find out.
Rocky Top Talk
by Joel Hollingsworth on Sep 30, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
will give it a shot
Tough keyword search, though. Not everyone uses the term “pick six”.
_______________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
FootballOutsiders has data like that for the NFL.
Other than that, Smart Football, perhaps?
by David Hooper on Sep 30, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Smart Football, and will check it out
But Chris is generally more qualitative than quantitative. I’m not optimistic he would have a stat on that.
_______________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
Speaking as a neutral
I think your second to last point is incredibly crucial for UT. You absolutely can not settle for FGs, and you absolutely can not let AU get more than one score ahead.
I could easily see UT racking up huge running yards, but having to settle for FGs once or twice, and then lose by 3 – 10 points.
If AU races out ahead, Kiffin is screwed because he doesn’t have the passing game to throw himself back into it and the running game will take too long, assuming AU continues scoring at a moderate pace.
Unfortunately for you guys, I think what I wrote above could be transcribed for at least half your SEC games this year. Good luck.
Pretty much.
If there’s anything resembling an offensive weakness in Auburn, it’s that they have started relatively slowly. Most of their punts and short drives have come in their first 5 or so drives of the game. If UT is tied/behind at that point, it could be a problem.
by David Hooper on Sep 30, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't wait for the game
Said it before, say it again: When Tennessee has the ball, it will be a stoppable force against a movable object.
Hopefully Malzahn will get creative with the running game so that we can open up some big gains and thus open up the passing game.
Also, don’t discount the fact that the fast pace Malzahn runs has seemed to wear down every opponent late in the game, particularly WVU.
"You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." - Jeff Francouer
Your last point is exactly why we’re hoping to see UT’s rushing game have success. Long, bruising, clock-killing drives will keep our defense fresh. Well, that and running means not passing.
Like the Florida game, the fewer total possessions in the game, the better. If there are, say, 16-20 total possessions in the game, UT stands a really strong shot. If there are 25-30ish, I think Auburn would have the advantage.
by David Hooper on Sep 30, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
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