College BlogPoll Discussion (Oh, and Ole Miss / Memphis, too)
by David Hooper on Sep 6, 2009 3:02 PM EDT
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PrintToday's rare Sunday tilt provides two wonderful benefits: a chance for SEC fans to cheer for the second 11-1 SEC opening weekend in a row, and a delay in the due date for the BlogPoll (which must now wait until Ole Miss actually finishes their game). This afternoon, if you're so inclined, join me during the Ole Miss game to both comment on what many believe is the most overrated team in the SEC (though Georgia may yet contend for that crown) and to discuss where teams may fall out in the BlogPoll.
In years past, Joel has used a whammadine ranking system with the magic of Excel and historical correlations to rank teams, starting first with heavy overrides of common sense and slowly releasing the system to its own devices by the end of the year. I'm still working through the process for myself, but for now I'd rather stick with human intuition than single-game results for a ranking system. So this week's ballot will be completely free-form and, like the preseason ballot, will be very easily influenced by your input.
I'll continue to listen to input all the way up to submission time (technically Tuesday morning, but I aim to have mine in on Monday evening). Here's the preseason ballot if you want a reminder, but I will place no weight on that ballot. It was all guesswork and we now have at least some information, and unlike the traditional polling services, I have no desire or impulse to defend my preseason prognostications.
A very, very rough first draft of the ballot follows below the jump. This is just to get the ball rolling, so feel free to shred it. It won't hurt my feelings.
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Texas |  1 |
| 3 | Southern Cal |  1 |
| 4 | Alabama | 1 |
| 5 | Penn State | 1 |
| 6 | California | 3 |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 5 |
| 8 | Mississippi | 2 |
| 9 | Boise State | 9 |
| 10 | Brigham Young | 7 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 7 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 5 |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | 1 |
| 14 | LSU | 6 |
| 15 | TCU | 1 |
| 16 | North Carolina | 3 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech | 6 |
| 18 | Florida State | 2 |
| 19 | Kansas | 6 |
| 20 | Georgia | 5 |
| 21 | Nebraska | 1 |
| 22 | Oregon State | 2 |
| 23 | Utah | 2 |
| 24 | Tennessee | |
| 25 | Notre Dame | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
And again, this is in no way final. I didn't want to spend an hour working on this when I fully expect to have it changed over considerably. A couple of notes:
- There are a lot of teams thatcould qualify. Week 1 polls are more frustrating than preseason polls this way. Teams like Michigan, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Boston College, and Air Force could all arguably replace some of the balloted teams right now.
- Navy. Maybe it's a part of my Navy past, but I kinda want to include them for scaring Ohio State the way they did. I think they'll be in the top 25 by the end of the year, so there's no hurry.
- Oregon/Boise. It may seem a bit odd to have Boise jump so much while Oregon is dropped out completely - kinda like I'm double-counting. But I think Boise's win was far bigger than the scoreboard, as Oregon had absolutely zero offense in that game and Boise was slowed only by their own mistakes.
- Tennessee. I'm comfortable including them now, but I don't want to zoom them up too quickly until after UCLA. If they win there, I can foresee happy homer hyper-bumping for UT in the polls.
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But, but, but . . .
. . . but the computer’s going to say they’re in the top five or something! Now’s our chance! No. 1 offense in the nation, No. 3 defense! Seize the day!
Or, 24. That works, too. I just like it when my computer grins at me.
Rocky Top Talk
by Joel Hollingsworth on Sep 6, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions
Not if it wasn't good news
Of course, not!
;-)
Rocky Top Talk
by Joel Hollingsworth on Sep 6, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Boise/BYU
The total yardage for both teams was within four yards of each other, so which is more impressive: winning at home against an imploding Oregon team, or winning at a neutral site against Oklahoma sans-Bradford? I’ll be interested to see how all of the voters at-large handle that question…I’d lean towards BYU, just barely.
They may be in white jerseys in Memphis, but based on volume alone this is a glorified home game for Ole Miss.
Will - Rocky Top Talk
Good question.
Defensively, BYU was a little better than I would have expected, even when Bradford was in the game. That was probably the most challenging game on their schedule, even if they do end up losing a couple. If they can make it past Florida State in two weeks, they’ll be in great shape.
How NOT to cut block:
On the injury to Hardy, the cut blocker intiially started out ok with the hit on the thigh, but ended up wrapping around the leg rather than staying on the thigh. That’s why the knee got torqued over then the other blocker hit high. And that’s why cut block takes so long to install.
Missed 'em as well.
I’m going to assume 31-7 meant that they did what they were supposed to do, so …hey, good on them.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Boise/BYU
Although Boise’s play was more dominating (Oregon had no first downs in the first half), BYU’s opponent was tougher, and their game was not at home. That said, when comparing quality, I haven’t seen enough to stray from my initial assessment: BYU is a smidge better.
You’ve finally moved LSU to where I wanted them when the season started. :-p Washington may be a team to keep an eye on. If they get some solid results come Pac-10 play, they could end up a top 25 team. Then again, they could’ve just had their game of the season and putz around to a 5-7 season. Either way, they’re significantly improved over last year.
Basically, apart from the BSU/BYU debate, I have no issue with your top 15 at all. After that, things are pretty hard to read.
by Incipient_Senescence on Sep 6, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions
Seems
Spots 11-17 could be lined up in any order and be defended. THE Ohio State did not impress me yesterday. I thought their overall team speed was slightly above Navy, and that ain’t saying much.
Evidently I have missed out on Nebraska’s resurgence.
I like the placement of BYU, Boise State and Kansas.
Off topic, the LSU boards are full of various posts, all articulating their frustration with the number of 3rd downs converted by Washington yesterday. Third and Chavis is setting up camp in Baton Rouge!
Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle... for this is the WINNING EDGE.
Nebraska is a mystery to me.
They floated up there mostly out of a lack of what else to do with them. This thing is a really, really rough draft.
In case you hadn't heard
Drafts aren’t due until Tuesday thanks to games going through Monday. That way you can adjust yours if FSU loses to Miami.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
Yeah, I knew.
But that’s a narrow window of time to have a discussion about the ballot. This way, I get a better feel from everybody and only need to bother with the final touches after the FSU game.
I can't be the only one who's gauging how UT will do against both of them.
Against Memphis: their offense isn’t going anywhere. I think we can put Jackson on their beanpole and shut down the 10-yard Hail Mary. I haven’t paid as much attention to their defense yet, but I’m willing to bet that they’d wear out.
Against Ole Miss: if they can’t solve their turnover bug, this game will rapidly tilt toward UT. I’ll be very curious to watch them as the season wears on.
Don't underestimate Memphis' height advantage.
Those guys are freaking tall.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I was one minute faster! I think.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Calhoun for Tiger High is a threat
both of their starting receivers are 6’4"+, which would be interesting for anyone
Will - Rocky Top Talk
Singleton' 6'8".
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW, I have no issues with the BlogPoll.
Record this for posterity.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
My problem is,
I probably couldn’t fault a billion different versions of the poll. But hey, it’s early.
And recorded. ;-)
Yeah, my thought is that once you get below 17 it doesn't really matter anyway.
I could have issues with FSU, Nebraska, wanting to see Michigan ranked, but ….eh. It’s all a crapshoot below a certain point now anyway, and you hit the big points that I think a poll should take into account.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Eric Berry approves Ole Miss' method of scoring.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
At the half:
Ole Miss outgaining Memphis about 145-125, but Memphis has picked up 40 plays to the Rebels’ 26. Memphis has been completely ineffective through the air (if they’re like NCAA 2010, start hitting the TE, Tigers), but has been hit-and-miss on the ground.
Ole Miss should be safe to take this game, but the theme for the week is Ugly, and Ole Miss is sure taking care of living up to the theme.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
It depends. Does Houston Nutt come with Snead?
What about the completely insane Arkansas boosters?
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Those boosters make me very happy I'm not attending Arkansas.
I understand being passionate, but the stunts they pulled while trying to drive off Nutt was just, well, nuts.
I also have a sneaking suspicion Nutt doesn't call plays to optimize results.
It’s completely wacky to watch, but I almost think his predilection to run the ball twelve different ways beats down his pass effectiveness. FWW, I think it’s a concept issue, not a gameplan issue.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you see Nutt coaching anywhere outside of the South?
I can’t. I mean, I can see it for pretty much any other SEC coach right now, but not Nutt.
I can see him in the Pac-10.
He’d play well as a foil to USC, but not as the center of attention. Plus, I think his style of teams would be really successful out there at, say, an Arizona State or an Oregon State.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh. By that standard, yes.
Plus he’s completely insane in a way that Southerners can appreciate.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
CROMPTON FOR HEISMAN!!!1!!1!
RIP Steve McNair (1973 - 2009) Retire #9!
Member of the Committee to Keep Keith Bulluck.
Eric Berry for Heisman!!
by Pride of the Southland on Sep 6, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Ole Miss picked up some serious field position on that punt exchange.
If they can get a first down they can realistically end this game.
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
Never mind.
Way to go nowhere.
(FWIW, I normally advocate going for it between the opponents’ 45 and 30. But they’re punting again.)
Eric Berry for sending the guy who wins the Heisman spinning 720 degrees in the air at the podium - or for intercepting it and returning it to where it rightfully belongs
by Chris Pendley on Sep 6, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
And a sack to kill those dreams
RIP Steve McNair (1973 - 2009) Retire #9!
Member of the Committee to Keep Keith Bulluck.
Eric Berry for Heisman!!
by Pride of the Southland on Sep 6, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm headed out for a while.
Thanks for the feedback on the poll. I’ll be pulling for Colorado State tonight, if anybody cares.
2 downs and all they needed was a yard.
I think Ole Miss is going to put it away here.
RIP Steve McNair (1973 - 2009) Retire #9!
Member of the Committee to Keep Keith Bulluck.
Eric Berry for Heisman!!
by Pride of the Southland on Sep 6, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions
I haven't been watching this game
But examining the box score, I advocate dropping Ole Miss in the BlogPoll to the region of GT, LSU, and TCU. They appear to be quite unimpressive against mediocre competition. I think Washington is a tougher opponent than Memphis.
by Incipient_Senescence on Sep 6, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions
That's pretty reasonable.
I left them in the same spot they occupied in my preseason poll simply as a placeholder, but I’m underwhelmed.
score definitely doesn't reflet the game
RIP Steve McNair (1973 - 2009) Retire #9!
Member of the Committee to Keep Keith Bulluck.
Eric Berry for Heisman!!
by Pride of the Southland on Sep 6, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It'll be kinda fun, really.
Red Cup commenters are currently debating whether they’ll pass OSU for #5.
I would bump Georgia
Until they prove they have an offense with a pulse. And because I don’t like them.
"Florida didnt win their first SEC title until 1991 and now they think they invented football."
-Ron Zook
heh.
I’m inclined to give them one more week in the top 25 because we have a lot of season left to correct things; I don’t need to go ballistic. But they’ll need to make us believe that this was just first-game jitters. And they have never played well on the road against teams in orange.
Ohio State should be dropped further
It’s only by a miracle that they won the game. Intercepting Navy’s game-tying 2 pt conversion and running it back for a 2 pointer of your own to save the day?! It’s not like you see that everyday and I’m not willing to give the Navy credit for being Top 25 yet. Yes, they are good for their schedule (and I appreciate their character & service to our country) but I think OSU is way over-rated as USC will demonstrate this week.
Good point.
And that in the horseshoe, even.
by David Hooper on Sep 7, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
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